Which Edition's Timeline Is Most Plausible?

[Raellus]

None of them are perfect, and it's all relative, but which edition's timeline do you consider to be the most plausible? There is no "other" option in this poll- that is deliberate. There could be an infinite number of homebrew timelines out there, so the poll only focuses on published, canonical ones.

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[.45cultist]

For the pivotal moment in history 2ED was it, but now T2013 has the crown.

[kato13]

1st edition with the caveat that this is alternate history from WAY before 1995 or even when most of the "history" was written in 1983.

I have the alternate history change from the late 60s (Russians finding gold and Oil on the Chinese borders). To get around the currently discussed difficulties with having the German's "start" the European war, I would have something happen during the Vietnam war that demonstrated to the Germans that Europe did NOT have the US's full attention and they demanded more autonomy in their actions. It starts small but over the next 2 decades incremental changes get them to the point where they would have the authority to do what is listed in the V1 history.


If you did allow home brew in the polls it would have been chico's.

[pmulcahy11b]

Given the choices above I'd have to go with v1 (with v2.2 equipment), but I really think the timeline should be advanced to 2030-2035.

[3catcircus]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Given the choices above I'd have to go with v1 (with v2.2 equipment), but I really think the timeline should be advanced to 2030-2035.

It's tough to say - V2 and T2013's start with real events before branching into speculation. V1 was speculative from the beginning of their timeline.

I've been doing a T2025 timeline starting in 2018 and there is so much that is unbelievable if you were to predict but actually occurred. Trying to guess what happens next is difficult.

What will China do in the Pacific? Invade Taiwan? Conflict with Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan re: Spratleys?

Belarus and Russia - potential interaction with Ukraine and the Baltics. What will Poland do re: further aggression to their regional neighbors if Belarusian dissidents in Ukraine do something and the subsequent promise by Russia to support Belarus?

Azerbaijan/Armenia.

Syria/Turkey/Iraq/Iran.

Iran sending ships to Venezuela.

Potential conflict resulting from COVID origin investigations.

France informing the US that China is hiding radioactive leaks from Chinese-run France/China-owned nuke plants.

Even predicting what will happen next month is hard, let alone all the way out to 2030...

I think a 2-3 year lead to the speculative future history of at most 5 years is probably the sweet spot.

[Rainbow Six]

I went for V1. It’s the classic timeline that I have known for over thirty years and other than the instances where I’ve played in games with a home brew near future time line V1 is the timeline that I’ve always used. To be honest it’s only in the last couple of weeks that I’ve heard anyone raise question marks about its plausibility - I’m not discounting what our German members have said, but for me V1 is probably the least implausible (with the caveat that I’ve only briefly read V4 at this stage).

[3catcircus]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I went for V1. It’s the classic timeline that I have known for over thirty years and other than the instances where I’ve played in games with a home brew near future time line V1 is the timeline that I’ve always used. To be honest it’s only in the last couple of weeks that I’ve heard anyone raise question marks about its plausibility - I’m not discounting what our German members have said, but for me V1 is probably the least implausible (with the caveat that I’ve only briefly read V4 at this stage).

I think all of them can be challenged in regards to plausibility - multiple plot points sound far-fetched at times. But, in looking at actual past events, it becomes very clear that most nations really don't want conflict bigger than a skirmish. Russian-brokered peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Saudi-brokered ceasefire in Yemen. India and China fighting at their border. Multiple coups throughout Africa, but ceasefires and peaceful endings as well.

Lots of smoldering going on, but no real desires for open fighting involving declarations of war and invasions of territory. It may very well be that the COVID pandemic has tempered governments (or that they've been forced to be more isolationist).

Some what-ifs that could turn current events hot in a "Twilight:2025" future timeline include China conflicts in the South China Sea, Iran/Turkey/Syria conflicts over Kurdish militias and Syrian rebels resulting in invasions of Iraq or Iranian involvement in Venezuela, possibly Belarus/Russia movements involving Crimea/Ukraine and the Baltics.

The most unknowable is the middle east - Saudi, Turk, Iranian, Russian involvement in trying to bring peace to Syria - all while Saudi is meeting with Iran while also warming a bit to Israel but Turkey is slightly hostile to UAE over their warming of relations with Israel. While Israel skirmishes with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.