OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[swaghauler]

So Putin invaded the Ukraine today and we did nothing, but now... China has jets invading Taiwan's airspace. We have a treaty with them and they do make like 95% of the World's computer chips.

[swaghauler]

My fellow Americans...

PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too!
whoohoo!

[Tegyrius]

It'll go well with the spam cans of Ukrainian surplus 5.45 that I bought when they were under a hundred bucks each. I'll bet they'd like 'em back now. :/

- C.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

My fellow Americans...

PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too!
whoohoo!

Twenty years and several motorcycle accidents ago I would still have been keen. Sadly this Aussie's most useful combat role these days would be as a sand bag.

[Raellus]

It's sad to see speculation from months and even years ago becoming present-day reality.

I really hope that China does not conclude from the way that Russia's Ukraine invasion is going down (and NATO's response, so far) that it is time to "liberate" Taiwan.

The Wall Street Journal claims that Russia and China "now hold a stronger hand in confronting the West than during the Cold War".

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...yUI_WTVxjrT8eM

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[Nowhere Man 1966]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

My fellow Americans...

PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too!
whoohoo!

I saw that too, I prefer a Henry Rifle, or replica of one) that was used in the Civil War, or Steve McQueen's "Mare's Leg," but....

There is one You-Tuber I enjoy, Sergei of the Ushanka Show about him growing up in the USSR. He's Ukrainian and thought that Putin would back down. I just knew Putin was going to do it, maybe it is my pessimistic side, knowledge of history or just gut feeling but this time I hate being correct.

[Raellus]

This Ukrainian armed forces recruitment commercial, released in 2014, is super powerful, and seemingly prescient.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCbW1hc6Ng

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[swaghauler]

So now Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert. Three days into the conflict and Russia is already threatening nuclear war... over the West rendering aid to Ukraine. The standing consensus among both NATO and the hobbyists who were following the news feeds is that Russia can sustain this tempo of operations for 7 days. IF the fight stretches out to 10 days, the Russians will lose the initiative due to a lack of fuel and ammo.

[Raellus]

It seems that Putin might have backed himself into a corner. Scarily, a cornered dictator is often the most dangerous kind...

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[Mahatatain]

Originally Posted by Raellus

This Ukrainian armed forces recruitment commercial, released in 2014, is super powerful, and seemingly prescient.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCbW1hc6Ng

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Very powerful. Thanks for sharing.

[shrike6]

Interesting article
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...epends/362505/

[Ursus Maior]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Again, I wish it were otherwise, but it looks like all that talk about rearming the Ukrainian air force was just that- talk.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-for-some-time



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The Polish government denied that these planes will be delivered or flown out of Poland. But their wording was very sketchy, leaving room for interpretation that these planes might be re-routed or taken via trailer to Ukraine.

Not sure, what will come of this.

[pmulcahy11b]

Is there a GoFundMe or something like that for the troops in the Ukraine?

See, I feel a little guilty. I ordered three T-Shirts from an outfit in Kyiv (ClothingMonster.com -- their shirts are great) about two weeks ago. Given what's going on there, I didn't think I'd ever get them, and I was fine with that.

But last night I got a package with the three shirts in the mail. And I'm thinking -- three quality shirts and international shipping -- that could have paid for a box of ammo. Any the Ukrainians are critically short on everything.

So I wonder, is there somewhere reputable where I can give to the cause?

[pmulcahy11b]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...cid=uxbndlbing

Sweden and Finland are seriously considering NATO membership, and NATO seems to be receptive.

Putin has already warned Finland about joining NATO.

Is Finland Putin's next target? I don't think he has the troops or equipment to keep Ukraine nailed down and attack Finland, but I wouldn't put it past Putin to call for mass conscription and start pulling crappy old equipment out of storage.

[unipus]

It sure hasn't gone well for them in the past, and I don't see the advanced technology and high morale that Finland has now making that any easier.

Worth noting that there have been huge overhauls to the structure and doctrine of the Russian military over the past 10-15 years. It's quite possible we're seeing a lot of friction from that, of an army or just its officers who maybe haven't quite grasped the changes.

In particular, there was a disastrous attempt to privatize many of the Army's logistics services, which was aborted only a few years ago. I would not be surprised if lingering fallout from that, or organizational self-sabotage from within by invested parties, was behind a lot of the problems the Russians have had with fuel and maintenance particularly.

[Ursus Maior]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Is there a GoFundMe or something like that for the troops in the Ukraine?

I don't know of crowd funding, but a couple of ammo companies have been donating a couple of million rounds, this article made news: https://www.businessinsider.com/ariz...ne-army-2022-3

Maybe such a thing could be organized the easiest way by contacting such a firm and asking them about "care packages"? I don't know, never thought about this kind of stuff.

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by Raellus

In the early days of the war, I saw a lot of stories about how the Switchblade loitering munition was going to make a big impact in the hands of the Ukrainian army. Aside from a couple of videos showing Switchblades in action (including one where it attacked a civilian sedan), I've not seen/heard any references to their use or effectiveness (or lack thereof).

On the other hand, the Ukraine Weapons Tracker Twitter feed regularly shares video clips of Russian Lancet loitering munitions in action. Although they appear pretty accurate, they don't seem to do much damage to hard targets- in many cases the target can be repaired and returned to action relatively quickly. I get the impression that the Lancet's warhead is not very powerful.

Is this evidence of the rare example of a Russian system (Lancet) that is more effective than a comparable NATO one (Switchblade), or is there another explanation?

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I think it's mostly that Switchblade 300 isn't all that visually impressive. There have been a few videos of their use taking out bunkers and tank crews, but because of how that version functions, they often look like failures. The 300 uses a directional fragmentation warhead roughly equivalent to a 40mm grenade that detonates ahead of the target and kills infantry or soft-skin vehicles. Particularly if the target's under cover, it looks like the system blows up short and nothing happened. The 600 isn't in full production, but would likely generate more video attention because it uses a warhead based on Javelin's.

As far as Lancet goes, the smaller Lancet-1 is a 5 kilogram drone with a 1 kilogram warhead, while Lancet-3 is 12 kilograms with a 3 kilogram warhead. Switchblade 300 is smaller (2.7 kilograms including its carrying case and launcher), while Switchblade 600 is much larger (54.5 kilograms). The debris from a destroyed Lancet included parts from Samsung, Semtech, Analog Devices, Infineon, NXP Semiconductor, and Mtech, all COTS bits, so the Russian electronics industry is as nonexistent as ever.