So what happens to Poland?

[Adm.Lee]

I've read and liked many of your works posted here on America's recovery, the British and the Mexicans.

But this game is solely responsible for inspiring in me an interest in Polish history (sad stuff on the whole, btw). Has anyone written up their recovery? After so many modules set there, I was disappointed to see next to nothing when 2300 came around.

For that matter, did anyone get to running the second batch of Poland modules (Return to Europe)?

[Abbott Shaull]

Never played the 2nd set of Europe module.

I think very few units of the Pact are answering any orders. Most of the Soviet units that are still organized and operating as units are either, 1 making plans to get back to home in the Soviet Union, or 2 have settled down to provide the local protection by slowly merging with the local militia units, going native. The commanders are trying to hold together their units, and not wanting to add to mass of marauders that are out there in Poland by late 2000 and early 2001.

Let's face it the 4th Guards Tank and 22nd Cavalry Armies were on the verge of dissolving into marauders groups. Even the Third Shock Army wasn't able to move as fast as higher headquarters had hoped. Also the Polish units that were pursuing the XI Corps and it units was doing so half-heartedly. They wanted to or felt they needed to stay close to their cantonments.

Even the units that had dissolved into marauder bands, they are looking more and more for communities to settle down into, even if the community don't want them.

As for the US units, many of them would be settling down where they were at. On one hand they some would like make it back to the US, or would settle to make it back to NATO lines, but realistically they realize they are better off staying put. Many of the Pact units are falling apart around them.

I can see some German units slowly making their way into area of Western Poland in small unit effort to reclaim former German Territory.

Just some thoughts.

[Raellus]

I agree with Abbot Shaull. Canon seems to suggest that Poland after 2000 is divided into several neo-feudal fiefdoms, some rather large (The Margrave of Silesia, the Black Baron's territory around Warsaw, the Free City of Krakow, etc.), some small communities with foreign military or pseudo-military (i.e. marauder) garrisons, either welcome or unwelcome.

There's the communist government enclave around Lublin but they don't seem to have the manpower to "reconquer" much territory, let alone control the territory that is nominally theirs.

In my T2K world, the U.S. 8th ID, returning from Latvia, the ex-Soviet 10th Guards TD, Free Polish forces, and various remnants of other NATO units shattered in the July offensive in northern Poland form a large cantonment on Poland's Baltic Coast. This cantonment declares itself loyal to CIVGOV and ignores MILGOV orders to return home.

In a friend's campaign, Gdansk declares itself a free city and is garrisoned, in part, by a unit of NATO stragglers calling itself the International Brigade.

I'm sure that if the Germans found themsleves able and the opportunity presented itself, they would try to assume control of territory traditionally considered part of Greater Germany. But then, they would probably have to deal with thier own rogue regions first.

A Poland similar to the one we know today would probably not reemerge for at least a decade after the Twilight War sputters to a halt in mid 2001.

[chico20854]

Longer term, Poland is in a rough situation.

Strategically & geographically, its in a tough spot. Its right in between the Germans and the Russians on the Northern European plain, with no natural obstacles of any real use to define natural borders to the east or west.

Poland in 2001 is at best a nation with a strong national identity & pride ruled by dozens of warlords, with every part of the country thoroughly damaged by conventional and nuclear war. The neighbors it is concerned about - the Germans and Russians - are also in bad shape. (The Czechoslovaks to the south, on the other side of the Tatras, and the Swedes from across the Baltic, present no real threat to Poland). French meddling will ensure that Germany remains chaotic and divided, and Germany's damage is almost as great as Poland's. Russia has lost its army, its economy and most of its borderlands.

So it becomes a decades-long race to rebuild, with Poland needing to maintain a rate of recovery sufficient to keep up with the Germans and Russians when they too recover.

In this I think Poland has an advantage. (Not to stereotype, this is based on my experiences in Poland and with my many friends in Poland). Their fierce national pride, history of surviving extreme deprivation (not only the Communist rule and WWII but also having the nation split between Austria, Prussia and Russia from 1796 to 1918) and sense of nationhood should give them a chance.

How do I see Poland recovering? First, NATO and non-Polish Warsaw Pact troops will either leave or get integrated into Polish society in the 2000-2003 timeframe. Warlords will continue to battle for cantonments and resources, which will continue to cause hardship but also kill off the more violent and aggressive elements of society, while simultaneously creating an ever deeper war-weariness in the population. In the period following this, a kind of stability will follow, with several powerful warlords more or less holding a truce, husbanding their strength and willing to rule their fief and not risk losing a war against another warlord. (And by warlord, I really mean independent armed group - it could be a city council, religious leader such as the priest that runs a partisan band in Black Madonna or element of the Polish Free Congress). With time, a sort of confederation emerges, sort of a league of independent city-states. Where Poland's chance for recovery comes in is if a charismatic leader (or with some other way to appeal to the Pole's sense of patriotism, such as the Black Madonna) is able to unite the independent statelets back into the nation of Poland. At first it would be a loose union, but with time it could evolve into a nation-state, perhaps under a king or ruler selected by either the common populace or (more likely IMHO) some sort of council composed of leaders from the various regions.

As for the neighbors, the Germans will have a tough time recovering with French troops on the west bank of the Rhine, and, with time, French efforts to keep Germany divided into competing parts (essentially returning Germany to the pre-Kaiser/1870s status quo). Russia will struggle in chaos for years until a new Tsar (or similar autocrat) arises. Even then the traditional inefficiency of Russia's economy (to a certain extent a direct effect of the massive distances and poor transportation network, requiring central control of scarce economic resources) will mean it will be many years before the Russians can again present a threat to Poland. In many ways, Poland's experience from 1918 to 1939 might be repeated - a united but poor and in many ways weak Poland is able to secure itself, scoring some victories against Russia (Warsaw 1921) and Germany (independence after 120+ years), both of which were suffering extreme chaos as a result of losing WW I. But again, longer term Poland is in a tough position, isolated from external allies and stuck between Germany and Russia.

A less likely option, IMHO, is a resurgence of the Polish-Lithuanian empire. It might help for a few years, especially if the Scandinavians actively support the Balts. Longer term, though, the Baltic republics can't add much in the way of resources or population, at least in terms of being enough to hold off the Russians. (And with Estonia only 75 miles from Leningrad, it might not be any help at all, with the Russians eager to push their borders back and no real natural obstacles to defend).

[Targan]

I'll have to dig out my Traveller 2300 books. That would tell us what happens to Poland in the (very) long term. I can't remember if Poland is mentioned in the 2300 timeline after the Twilight War. I know that by 2300 Germany is still broken up into a number of independent states and the Ukraine is also independent.

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Targan

I'll have to dig out my Traveller 2300 books. That would tell us what happens to Poland in the (very) long term. I can't remember if Poland is mentioned in the 2300 timeline after the Twilight War. I know that by 2300 Germany is still broken up into a number of independent states and the Ukraine is also independent.

I looked at 2300 fairly recently, and I don't recall much detail at all (thus my disappointment). It's there, so it didn't get swallowed by Russia+Germany again. That's at least the good news. It's not a space-exploring country, and it's not in the orbit of the French Empire, either.

Germany's multiple states ends very near the 2300 date, IIRC. Before that, it was split about 5(?) ways, with pro-French Bavaria being the strongest, British-backed Hannover being another.

Ukraine is independent in 2300, and it's a minor player, but due to its French ties it's more of a player in space than Russia.

SO, it seems to me that the norm for devastated European nations is for small statelets to form, and those to coalesce back into approximations of their previous forms. Where some other nation is more intact (read: France) sizable chunks might be kept separate.

My not-too-deeply-thought vision is that marauder kingdoms and cantonments are the immediate future for Poland. Krakow and Silesia are going to be the biggest of the small fry, and they are right next to each other. Some kind of fight between them (with Fr. Niekarz and the Black Madonna as kingmaker?) is due soon, and may determine the biggest fish in the whole pond. The module, I think, points to the players deciding to try to link Krakow and the WL, and knocking off the King.

The Americans in XI Corps' area, and Soviets all over the place, are either going to disappear into the local society or drift home. I can see battalion-size chunks form up and walk out over time. Certainly, some batch of Americans will get some boats and try to coast-jump their way to Britain, at least.

Since Germany got split up, and at least two of the successor states had French and British backing, I wonder if another piece (like Saxony or Brandenburg/Prussia) might develop some Polish ties (willingly or not).

I don't think the Baltic states are still in the 2300 map (I could be wrong), so the Russians may have gotten them back. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth might make a comeback, certainly the Poles might try, but the real power of that union was the Lithuanian lords' domination of Ukraine and Belorussia. Since a play to retake those would run into a much stronger Russia than historical, and Kiev apparently gets some French backing (via Odessa?), that seems less likely.

OTOH, it strikes me that a Polish ploy to keep Russia busy would be to arm and feed some of those batches of ex-Soviet soldiers, and pack them off to the east. "You boys want a marauder kingdom? Great. Go play outside."

[Adm.Lee]

Just re-looked at 2300AD. Poland did pick up Lithuania, Latvia is independent, and Ukraine extends to the Don River.

Germany did split five ways (Bavaria, Hannover (called itself Germany), Westphalia, Saxony, Brandenburg), with the pieces taking sides against each other and foreigners often. Not much fighting reported, though.

[WallShadow]

Originally Posted by Targan

I'll have to dig out my Traveller 2300 books. That would tell us what happens to Poland in the (very) long term. I can't remember if Poland is mentioned in the 2300 timeline after the Twilight War. I know that by 2300 Germany is still broken up into a number of independent states and the Ukraine is also independent.

Poland is indeed mentioned in the post Twilight era: one of the organizations mentioned in Traveller:2300 and 2300AD is Zapomoga, which started out as a post-war refugee-handling group assisting displaced Polish citizens to get a new start on life. I always wondered if some PC accidentally help start this by giving a struggling zbiegi family a shovel, a screwdriver, and an MRE, and the fellow "paid it forward" in a snowballing charitable wave.

[Targan]

Wow, epic thread necromancy! Nicely done