Final Timeline for Mo.

[Mohoender]

Too bad for you, dog6 asked for it but promise, it will be the last one.

Everything has to reach its end and this timeline entirely satisfy my own approach to the Twilight war. It allows me to play a slightly more modern version of the game while keeping the cold war alive. As a matter of fact my PCs can ride M60 Patton and face Black Eagle tanks.

The last two timeline had been prototypes and they were the result of me (as a GM) having a hard time to chose between a full respect of canon (didn't really enjoy the idea) and a throwing away of canon, replacing it by a fully post-cold war setting (not entirely good as well IMO). What do you want, I like the idea of having a few CF Adams destroyer around and couldn't accept the idea that my pilots would not have had access to F-4 Phantom and Mirage F-1. F-16s are nice but my favourite jet aircraft is and will remain the F-5 Tiger II.

As for my previous timeline, I'm far from claiming full paternity. It is based on the v2.2 and some sentences in the text are even fully extracted from the orginal v2.2 timeline. That is done on purpose as I want to keep the atmosphere of Twilight 2000 and as I want to praise the original team. This game never made it very far in France and if I had not been living in US between 1990-1993, I would certainly have missed it. Nevertheless, despite the huge amount of critics I can make on it, I remain a strong defender of the original game. IMO the original team made an outstanding work (twice) with what was available to them at the time.

Now I start to post that last timeline (a middle-ground one), enjoy the reading.

By the way, as winter slowly comes, from time to time, I'll be bothering you with what I write on the different countries of the world. This is my last timeline, not the end of me. The next post will be on Portugal and Spain

[Mohoender]

A WORLD IN AGONY :

The world as we know it has ceased to exist. The events that followed the falling of the Berlin Wall took a very different path and this resulted in what is known as the Twilight War. Damages and casualties had reached a level that was never seen before except during the time of the great plagues in Medieval Europe. For some years, now, the world political organization has vanished almost entirely and only a handful of states survived. Almost everywhere, law and order have vanished and chaos prevail. Life is short, violence is everywhere and all the power that remain is in the hands of local, and often bloodthirsty, leaders. Fightings are still going on but the ressources are scarce and most modern equipment have disapeared.
The world economy is devastated and most large cities have been reduced to rubbles. Working industries are rare and, everywhere, time took its toll: Infrastructures are in decay and most of the industries left are abandonned or working at a very slow rate. Nowadays, most productions are coming out of small local industries. Various equipments that had survived are know rotting in the field as nobody could repair them anymore. Some countries retain only a very little amount of industries (China, Germany, USA...), others still have a tiny industrial capacity that is producing what it can to supply their armies (Canada, Russia, Turkey, UK...), some do have a true production capability but this is working at a reduced rate (France, Hungary, Ireland, Sweden, Thailand...) and a few were mostly untouched and continue to produce goods to a fair level (Australia, Denmark, Switzerland...). Oil and Gas are now rare and expensive goods, seeing much reduced productions and reserved to a few strategic domains (Such as AvGas production). For the most part, Ethanol, Methanol and natural oils have replaced them while natural oils are also used as lubricants. Everywhere, the technology has falled back when control circuitries and electronic components were fried by the EMP generated by the high altitude exchange that ended the nuclear phase of the war. Prewar predictions of EMP proved to be understimates : civilian and fixed military infrastructures were damaged extensively while most vehicles proved surprisingly resilient.
The ecological balance of the planet was also changed deeply. Entire regions were devastated and are now called “Dead Zone�. Some of them were hit by nukes but, in fact, most of these fell victim to chemical or biological contamination. They are wastelands where nothing survive for long. To get in one of these “Dead Zone�, you better have some good equipments and good motivations. However, the nukes themselves, as the various accidents that followed some of the bombings, never had the estimated consequences. Of course, many live stocks in these areas died consequently but a good portion of them survived. Today, those who dare go near a nuked area will have the surprise to discover a rich nature where life, sometimes a mutated one, is everywhere. On an other hand, the climate has changed deeply but the consequences were somewhat less dramatic than expected. A “Nuclear Winter� stroke the world but it lasted only for about six month; temperatures have dropped by 20°C and the casualties were heavy. Since then, the climate has changed in a way no one really expected. In the Northern Hemisphere, average temperatures have dropped by 5°C and the winters are longer, generally going from mid-October to the end of May. Droughts, floods and tornadoes are more common even in Europe. The Ice Shelf goes almost to Iceland and most of the northern seas are often covered with ice in winter: Saint Laurent Strait, Baltic Sea and the North Sea. Life conditions in the Polar Regions are extremely difficult, and the lands located near the Polar Circle are almost entirely empty. Every winter, snow is everywhere down to the 40° Latitude. In the Southern Hemisphere, things have evolved in a different maner as the deserts and the jungles are extending again. As a matter of facts, extreme climate types have become more of the rule and Earth is lacking in temperate areas. Some species have disapeared entirely but others are doing very well and many new ones have appeared almost everywhere. Moreover, several countries, such as Japan, experienced huge natural catastrophies.

Except in very few surviving states, the governments don’t have what is needed to enforce their will and their means of action have been reduced to a minimum. State agencies have disapeared from many places and what they can do is generally reduced to almost nothing, Some military forces have been reorganized but they cannot act very far away from the local level. Most are used as police forces and they patrol areas that are too large for them. In some places, private forces and agencies have been rebuilt but these are mostly unreliable thugs.

Most of the world, the “Outlaws�, is a combination of territories that escape any kind of law and they are more or less devastated buy the war. These regions are the domain of wild animals, mutating creatures and marauding bands. From time to time, you’ll find some isolated communities that retain some kind of structure: they are generally know as the “Havres�. They are always organized around what was left from a pre-war city or town and they have a reduced population. Often facing danger, these populations distrust strangers and they will not easily let you get in. Towns and villages all have some kind militia and they keep some type of cottage industry (food process, alcohol brewing, iron work, low level mechanic, light metal work, textile or ammunition production). Some are involved in some kind of limited trade but most only produce what they need. Ressources are rare, comming mostly from recycling, and the only exception is that of alcohol. Alcohol (Ethanol and Methanol) is the new fuel and most community produce it to some extend.

[Mohoender]

Of course, we all know about past events form the 1990’s but one can easily assume that they could have evolved in a very different and dramatic way.

1989
This is the year of all hopes as it saw the end of the soviet presence in Afghanistan and the decay of the Soviet Union. By mid-February, all soviet troops have left Afghanistan leaving Najibullah’s regime alone to face the Mujahideen. In the meantime, all across the Warsaw Pact, pro-democracy demonstrations, often peaceful, are held and the communist grip over Eastern Europe start to loosen as Warsaw Pact members engaged in a path toward freedom. Hungary slowly removes border restrictions and the Hungarian Republic is officially declared in October. Poland newly appointed prime minister is a member of Solidarnoç. Czechoslovakian velvet revolution results in the fall of communist rule on December 29 while Bulgaria slowly moves away from hard-line communism. At last, Communists are quickly loosing control over East Germany and, on November 9, the Berlin Wall falls. However, Romania is stroke by a full fledge revolution that starts in Timisoara and ends with the execution of Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena on December 25. In addition, almost all over Eastern Europe, a number of German ethnic organizations form in response to West Germany's policy of accepting as a German citizen anyone who can prove themselves of Germanic descent (it is rumoured that membership in ethnic clubs will be good enough).
Inside Soviet Union itself civil unrest and ethnic strife are growing resulting in demonstrations and riots as it is the case in Azerbaïdjan and Georgia. On these occasions, the red army moves in and several people are killed and wounded. At last, the only European communist governments which survive are those outside the Warsaw Pact: Yugoslavia and Albania.
Elsewhere, the situation varies greatly and a number of incidents occur. However, they are not seen as significant. Iran breaks off diplomatic relations with the United Kingdom over Salman Rushdie's The Satanic Verses. Christian General Michel Aoun declares a 'War of Liberation' to rid Lebanon of Syrian forces and their allies. The Chinese political reform movement is brutally crushed by government military forces and Tien An Men becomes a symbol. An attempted coup against President Aquino of the Philippines is foiled (with the help of American air cover). In Venezuela, the Caracazo, a popular uprising, occured in february but is crushed by security forces killing up to 3000. The republic of Panama is invaded by the U.S. to remove the government of Manuel Noriega.

1990
The movement toward democracy in the Eastern Bloc continues but 1990 also brings up a number of surprises to the world.
Slowly, the movement initiated outside of Russia starts to spread to the Soviet Union as soon as January: People demonstrate for independence in Lithuania while the Red Army moves toward Azerbaïdjan under a state of emergency decree. Finally, in March, Lithuania is the first Baltic Republic to declare independence soon followed by Latvia. In June, the Russian Duma declares its sovereignty, followed soon by similar declarations from the other Republics. Ethnic unrest continues to simmer in Azerbaijan, and spreads to most of the Caucasus and Central Asia, taking the form of ethnic demonstrations and occasional riots. Although most of it fails to come to the attention of the rest of the world, who are distracted by events in Germany.
In Eastern Europe, the movement toward freedom accelerates and the year starts with people storming the Stasi HQ in East Germany. Soon after, the Soviet Union agrees to withdraw all its troops from Czechoslovakia. This movement culminates with the reunification of Germany becoming reality in October. A month later, Germany and Poland reach an agreement over their border dispute and the German-Polish Border Treaty is signed and ratified by the Polish Sjem. Officially, the newly united Germany renounces any territorial claims outside of its post-WWII boundaries, but asserts continued interest in the welfare of ethnic Germans living outside of Germany. Membership in German ethnic organizations in western Poland grows, particularly in Silesia. By the end of the year, following that of Czechoslovakia, soviet troop withdrawals are under way from Germany, Poland and Hungary. Elsewhere, in Western Europe, it has to be noted that the IRA has launched an increasing number of attacks toward Britain.
In the Middle-East, the year begins with the Yemen Arab Republic and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen unifying and becoming the Republic of Yemen. Later, Iraq stuns the West by invading Kuwait in August. With the Soviet Union in increasing disarray, the world rallies behind US leadership in resisting Iraqi aggression, and troops from three dozen countries, a few of them still formally members of the Warsaw Pact, pour into Saudi Arabia. Then, while the world is occupied with Iraq, Syria achieves victory over Aoun and takes control of Lebanon.
Elsewhere in the world, a few significant events take place. The Indian withdrawal from Sri Lanka open the gates to a revival of the Civil War and violence increase again. To everyone’s surprise, a coalition of opposition parties headed by Violetta Chamorro is defeated by Daniel Ortega's bid for re-election in Nicaragua. Sandinistas are strongly reinforced by this result and the Contras are forced back into insurgency. Finally, In Africa, F.W. de Klerk legalise the ANC and frees Nelson Mandela, starting a process intended to end the Apartheid.

1991
In January, the Gulf Coalition begins a stunning aerial offensive against Iraq and follows it up with a blitzkrieg ground war in February which liberates Kuwait and crushes the flower of the Iraqi Army. Although Saddam remains in power, his authority is reduced to the central third of his nation and his military is no longer capable of aggression against neighbouring states. In the meantime, Soviet forces storm Vilnius to stop Lithuanian independence. Soviet rule continues to weaken up until summer with Estonia and Latvia voting for independence while Gerogia declares it as soon as April.
Ethnic and religious violence in the Caucasus and in Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union escalates while the Soviet Union increases its troop withdrawal schedule in order to use the forces inside its own borders. Tensions are particularly heavy between Armenians and Azeris in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Gorbachev continued to vacillate between an all-out drive for reform and an all-out commitment to a strong central government in the old style and the result is an accelerating slide toward chaos with the signing, in May, of Sino-Russian Border Agreement appearing as the only bright point. On July 1 the old Warsaw Pact is formally abolished, the last straw for many Moscow hardliners. In August the hardliners seize power in a bloody coup.
On August 19, elements of the Taman Guards and Kantemir Motor Rifle Divisions move into the center of Moscow and seize important public buildings and radio stations. An eight-member Emergency Committee deposes Gorbachev (for "reasons of health") and bans strikes, protests, or public assemblies. Defiant protesters gather at the Soviet Parliament building, along with a few dissident military units and a cadre of armed Afghan War veterans, to defend Yeltsin and the Parliament. On August 20, elements of the Kantemir Division, spearheaded by the elite KGB "Alpha Team," storm the Parliament building and scatter the protesters. Russian President Yeltsin, along with an estimated 800 others, die in the assault.
With Yeltsin dead and Gorbachev imprisoned in the Crimea, acting Soviet President Yanayev declares the establishment of a "renewal government." The governments of Armenia, Georgia, Moldavia, Ukraine and the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) denounce the new government as illegal and declare the Soviet Union to be dissolved. However, Azerbaijan, Belarus and the republics of Central Asia grant their support while everyone in the West, expressing concern, formally condemns the Coup. The situation improves slightly when Russia recognizes the independence of the Baltic States, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldavia.
While this is taking place in the Soviet Union, a similar process takes place in Yugoslavia when both Croatia and Slovenia secede in June, followed in short order by Macedonia. Violence soon broke out between the Serbian dominated federal government and militias of the breakaway states. Peace is quickly restored in Slovenia but fighting continue over Croatia.
The consequences of the coup do not only affect Eastern Europe but soon result in rising tensions over Western Europe when, in late December, the Bundestag refuses to ratify the border treaty between Germany and Poland and states that the treaty will not be examined before next fall. In addition, the German chancellor declares that because of the new situation in Russia, Germany will increase its military efforts. Consequently, plans are drawn to incorporate various units from East Germany and an arm refit program is designed.

1992
With the change of policy in Germany, worries rise again among most countries in Eastern Europe and history takes a different path. Elections in Albania bring a pro-western government to power but these held in Bulgaria confirms the communist to office. In May, Russia meet with the Central Asian Republics at Tashkent establishing the “Russian Union of Sovereign States”. Deceived by Germany’s attitude, Poland finally denounces the border treaty it agreed upon and turns again toward Russia. In late summer, a conference attended by all R.U.S.S. members, Poland and Bulgaria is held at Warsaw. Poland and Bulgaria join the collective security treaty and the Tashkent Treaty evolves into Warsaw Pact 2. Russian forces are to be garrisoned again in Poland and various news network starts to talk openly of a neo-Cold War. Tensions rose also in May when Crimea, declaring independence from Ukraine, get support from Moscow. On the next day, Russian units move across the Kerch Strait. Ukraine is outraged but, left with little troops when many former soviet officers offered their loyalty to Russia in January; the country is unable to take any real action. A similar event takes place a month later when Abkhazia joins South Ossetia and declares independence from Georgia. Moscow recognizes these two regions and troops are sent in again. This time, the western world reacts and Russian assets are frozen. The Kremlin answer is almost immediate and President Yanayev declares publicly that all western assets in Russia are to be taken over while his government refuses to assume any longer the Soviet debt, stating that it grew as a result of the insane policy conducted by Gorbatchev.
In the Balkan region, Bosnia demands that Yugoslavian federal troops withdraw from the province, a request which the Serbian-dominated central government refuses. In addition, minor, non violent, incidents take place in southern Albania between the Greek population, Albanians and Albanian authorities. Toward mid-year, the Serbs are besieging Sarajevo and what is known as the Yugoslavian Wars enters a new stage.
By mid-year, Slovakian separatists have gained enough seats in the Czech parliamentary elections to force the division of the country into two sovereign states: Slovakia and the Czech Republic. As soon as this is achieved, Slovakia turns toward Russia and becomes the next country to join Warsaw Pact 2.
In Western Europe, the Maastricht treaty is signed, founding the European Union. Soon after, the UN gets involved in Bosnia-Herzegovina when the Security Council approves Resolution 743 to send a UNPROFOR peacekeeping force to Yugoslavia. However, later in the year, Russia will refuse extensions of this force mandate. In the meantime, both major terrorists organization of Europe, the ETA in Spain and the IRA in Northern Ireland, adopt more radical path and the number of attacks increase. In Italy, investigations are carried out on Democrazia Cristiana and uncover endemic corruption practices at the highest level. This is starting a series of scandals that quickly undermine the Italian leading party.
Since the August Coup, the Kremlin has increased aid to foreign power and this continues to grow, tipping the balance in various regions. Najibullah’s regime of Afghanistan, supplied with large quantities of oil and weapons, inflicts a number of defeats to the Mujahideen. Sandinistas of Nicaragua, reinforced by their victory in the elections, are now pushing their advantage toward badly weakened Contras that has lost most of US support. Cuba recovers and Castro is able to maintain and modernize its forces. Mongolia experiences a fast recovery under the rule of the old communist party. There, the path to democracy comes to a quick end and, before year’s end, the country is a member of Warsaw Pact 2.

In March, with the signing of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, China brings back hope to the world. This, however, is short lived as confirmation of the 1991 border treaty by Russia brings fear that the two countries could build new ties. Hopefully, this fear doesn’t last as it is obvious that China, intending to pursue its path toward socialist market economy, doesn’t have any true desire to hamper its relation with the Western World.
In the Middle-East the situation remains tense as Iraq continues to refuse access to UN inspection teams to several of its military complexes. In addition, Kurds become increasingly active in both Iraq and Turkey; their guerrillas seeking sanctuary in the UN protected northern third of Iraq when needed.
In the United States, discontent toward Bush’s economical policy, growing critics on the ending of the Gulf War lead to George Bush defeat in november 1992. Despite his stand against Russia and despite the fact that he put an hold on military budget reduction, the Election are won by Bill Clinton with Al Gore as vice-president. Then, before the end of his mandate, he gets the UN security council, including Russia, to approve resolution 794 concerning Somalia. As a result, a coalition of UN peacekeapers led by the US form the UNITAF and, on december 4, US military forces land in Somalia.
In Venezuela, the February 1992 coup, led by Hugo Chávez, overthrows the government of President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Supported by a majority of the population, several military units seize a number of large cities (Valencia, Maracaibo and Maracay). In the meantime, a number of military units take position in Caracas and intercept Pérez while the president is returning from an overseas trip. Pérez is taken into custody and Chavez broadcast a tape calling for general uprising. As a result, everywhere in the country, crowds demonstrate in favour of the coup and, in a matter of 24 hours, most of the army rally behind the Putchists. In March, Hugo Chavez is elected president with a large majority. Implementing a policy inspired by socialism, he is soon pointed out as a threat to democracy by the US administration. The new Venezuelan regime builds strong political ties with Cuba and turns to Russia for political and military support.

[Mohoender]

1993
In his inaugural address, President Clinton declares that "Our democracy must be not only the envy of the world but the engine of our own renewal. There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America." Then, shortly after taking office, the US president turns most of its attention toward internal matters. Changes are made to the US health care policy, gay rights are improved and a strong support is given to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in order to have it ratified by congress.
On the international scene, less political attention is given by US administration to what is happening in Russia and in the Balkans. Nevertheless, military expenditures are maintained and several ships that should have been put out of commission are put in reserve instead.
Similar actions are taken among many countries in the West. France increases the number of active units among its military branches and accelerates the work on several military programs. Germany keeps reorganizing its forces and the Soviet equipments refitting program is extended. Else, in countries such as Sweden and United Kingdom, equipments that were to be scrapped are put in storage. However, the German economy shows some signs of slow exhaustion, especially in the East, and radical right wing political organizations swell in membership while violence against foreign workers and handicapped Germans escalates. Germany's government responds weakly, choosing to compromise with the right, and passes a strict series of immigration laws which are widely compared to the Nazi "race laws" of the 1930s. Italy, on the other hand, does not engage in any military program as it is still shaken by political scandals and instability. More politicians resign from office and the political crisis is accompanied by increasing economical problems.
In the meantime, the neo-communist government of Russia also rebuilds the army and a heavy modernization plan is enforced. Surprisingly, the population seems to be widely supporting this despite some obvious problems. The explanation lay in one of the first measure taken by the new government: army units are dispatched to monitor several production plants and the transportation network. As a result, despite the strain on the country, the population doesn’t suffer from privation and, in fact, the access to industrialized goods improves. Tensions continue with Belarus and Ukraine as Moscow still refuses to recognize their independence but no aggressive action is taken by either side. However, the Nagorno-Karabakh War, a continuing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, is still very active and marked by a number of successes on the side of Armenia. As a consequence, Azerbaijan president Abülfaz Elçibay is overthrown by a military coup in early summer and the former leader of Soviet Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev rise to power.
Fighting continues in the former republics of Yugoslavia and becomes increasingly bitter. There is now no talk of reunifying the country; instead ethnic groups fight bitterly for as large a slice of territory as possible. Local militia deal ruthlessly with the people of other ethnic groups living in their regions and massacres are numerous from all sides.
Outside Europe several event are also marking this year bringing both hope and fear. Concerns are expressed toward Iraq and North Korea. The first is hit several times by tomahawks: in January, when it deploys troops near Kuwait and, in June, after an alleged assassination attempt on former US president George Bush. The second benefits from an increasing support from Moscow and, toward mid-summer, Pyongyang withdraw from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. However, hope is carried by China and Israel. Jiang Zemin the new Chinese president engages more economical reforms and the path toward market economy accelerates. Then, in September, PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shake hands in Washington D.C., after signing a peace accord. For the first time, the world can dream of an issue to the conflict in that part of the world.
Finally, the continent that seems to experience the most important changes is Africa. After a referendum, held in April, Eritrea gains independence from Ethiopia and power is assumed by the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), a Marxist political party. US distrust that government from the beginning and the authorities of Eritrea turns toward Russia for help and support, opening again the harbour facilities at Masawa to the Warsaw Pact.

Fighting resume in Angola between the UNITA and the governmental forces (MPLA) but this takes a very different direction as the now democratic government is supported by the West. Jonas Sawimbi, leader of the UNITA, faces difficulties as he is cut from his former support but, true to his word ( "I am not communist because it serves no purpose. Nor am I a capitalist. Socialism in this country is the only answer.�), turns to Russia for supply.
In October, Burundi enters a civil war when democratically elected Hutu president, Melchior Ndadaye, is assassinated by Tutsi extremists and violence breaks out between the two groups. On the same month, a raid on Mogadishu ends with the death of 18 US soldiers and over 1000 somalis.
In South Africa, Chris Hani, an anti-apartheid, activist is assassinated. The murderer escapes but is found dead on the next day. Investigation progress slowly, riots are taking place throughout the country and F.W. De Klerk is increasingly criticized. De Klerk is forced out of office and new elections are organized. The widespread violence that followed hani’s assassination worried the white minority and Ferdinand Hartzenberg, leader of the Konserwatiewe Party van Suid-Afrika, is elected. The ANC is banned, Nelson Mandela is arrested again and, before year’s end, this brings an end to the process that could have led to the end of Apartheid. In addition, the new president declares that South Africa will pursue it’s nuclear porgram.

1994
As the Neo-Cold War shows no sign of heating down, Europe experiences a number of changes. Germany keeps increasing its force structure and divisions that had been kept under strength are brought up to full strength while territorial (reserve) brigade are created. Voters in Finland, Norway and Sweden refuse to join with the newly constituted European Union. In the May elections, the Hungarian Socialist Party led by former Communists win absolute majority in the parliament and Hungary’s first move is to join Warsaw Pact 2, making Hungary the fifth country outside former Soviet borders to join that military alliance. Following this new adhesion to the Warsaw Pact, Moldavia grows worry and, in October, renounces its independence, becoming part of Romania. In Italy, Democrazia Cristiana is dissolved and a coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi is brought to power. It is known as Polo delle LibertÃ* and composed of Lega Nord, National Alliance, Christian Democratic Centre and Union of the Centre. It brings a lot of hope among the population but this is short lived as the government fall when the Lega Nord leaves the coalition in December.
Closer to Russia itself, a ceasefire is reached on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan losing 16% of its territory. Then, President Aliyev, aware of Azerbaijan weakness, joins the R.U.S.S. A few weeks later, in July, the politically unknown Alexander Lukashenko is elected as president of Belarus with 80% of the expressed votes and the republic joins also with the R.U.S.S, putting an end to almost three years of tensions with Russia. From then, a majority of the former Soviet Republics are united again and the only unsettled dispute is that between Russia and Ukraine. Finally, before the end of the year, a war starts in Chechnya and the Russian army is sent to crush the insurgents.
Middle-East is also the location of several events, starting with a civil war that shakes Yemen between April and October. In late April, fighting breaks out near San’a and, on May 21, southern leaders declare secession and establish the Democratic Republic of Yemen under the leadership of Haidar Abu Bakr al-Attas. All members in Warsaw Pact 2 recognize the new republic and send supplies. Surprisingly enough, Saudi Arabia, feeling threaten by the reunification of Yemen, support the secessionists and send them large amount of money. Bitter fighting continue for several months until a peace is signed in the Jordan capital of Amman. Yemen is back to the situation that was its before the reunification: The Republic of Yemen rules over the north with its capital at San’a while the Democratic Republic of Yemen rules in the South with its capital at Aden.
Soon after, the beginning of the civil war in Yemen, another civil war breaks out between Kurdish factions in Iraki Kurdistan. Massoud Barzani's Kurdish Democratic Party, backed by Iran, launches an attack on Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. As a result, by year’s end, 2000 people had been killed on both sides.


In July, as most of the world is looking at Kurdistan and Yemen, Israel and Jordan sign the Israel-Jordan Treaty of Peace, which formally ends the state of war that has existed between the nations since 1948, providing a point of stability in the region.
In Asia, relations between Russia and China continue to improve slightly and both countries agree to de-target their nuclear weapons against each other.
South Africa reasserts its control over Walvis Bay. Tensions are high but the leading party of Namibia (SWAPO) is reluctant to take action despite support from Russia and renounces its claim on the town. Almost at the same time, US troops are withdrawn from Somalia. Another important event takes place in Africa when, in April, both the Rwandan president and Burundi president die when a missile shot down their plane. That attack triggers what is to become the Rwandan Genocide.
All over this year, the entire American continent appears as the most stable area of the world outside what happens in Chiapas. On January 1, riots are starting in the separatist region of Chiapas (Mexico) and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, led by Commander Marcos, backed by Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, start a guerrilla war against the government in Mexico.

1995
In January 1, Austria is the only country to join the European Union while Germany’s more right oriented government starts to back the Sudetendeutsche Landsmannschaft (Sudeten German Homeland Association) in its claim toward the Czech Republic. This claim is relatively moderate as it calls only for the complete revocation of the Beneš decrees which established the expulsion of Germans from Czekoslovakia after the war. Nevertheless, this brings worries among the Czech population and the Czech government withdraws from the EU adhesion process. In the Balkan, the Croats finally achieve complete victory while fightings continue in Bosnia and herzegovina. At last, on December 14, the Dayton Peace Agreement is signed in Paris and the conflict is brought to its end. Croatia is recognized by Serbia while the Republka Srpska is recognized as one of two main political-territorial divisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
A major event, then, takes place in Asia and is known as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. This starts when Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui makes a speech, at Cornell, arguing in favor of Taiwan Independence. The PRC is furious with that declaration and launches several military exercises off the coast of Taiwan. These continue all year long up into 1996.
In Africa, the UN peacekeeping mission in Somalia ends in March and Somalia definitely enters a period of chaos. The situation worsens in South Africa where ethnic unrest has grown since the revival of Apartheid. This time it turns to open violence and, while the West officially condemn the repression, several governments secretly back Hartzenberg’s government.
Nevertheless, it’s in the Middle-East that the most striking events take place and the first one concerns Iraq. In January, the CIA manages to negotiate a truce between Kurdish factions and makes contact with Iraqi officers planning an assassination of Saddam Hussein. Plans are made to link this assassination to a Kurdish offensive toward Northern Iraq. This is carried out in early March and Saddam is effectively killed with tank fire while the Kurdish forces make a swift move over Northern Iraq, destroying three Iraqi Army divisions and capturing 5,000 prisoners over only a few days. However, the power vacuum created by Saddam’s assassination allows for an all-out uprising by Shiites under the leadership of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr. The Grand Ayatollah is backed by Iran, and his forces make quick gains, securing the south and its oil fields as well as most of Baghdad. When December comes, the country is in a civil war opposing the Kurds and the Sunni on one side to the Shiite on the other side. The second and other major event takes place on November 4 when Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is assassinated at a peace rally in Tel Aviv.
In Mexico, uprising continues in Chiapas. In February, the Mexican army launches a major offensive but the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) is able to resist and a fair portion of that region escapes central control by the Mexican government. Another offensive is launched in early fall but this is again unsuccessful.

[Mohoender]

1996
Unlike the previous year, 1996 is marked by a new step in the increase of international tensions that will be determinant for the fate of our world.
The crisis between China and Taiwan goes one step further when the USA switch from their relatively neutral posture to a more aggressive one, sending two carrier groups in the area. This shows not only a symbolic gesture towards the ROC, but a readiness to fight on the part of the U.S. Realising the U.S. Navy CVBG's incredible threat to the PLA Navy, PRC decides to accelerate its military build up. Soon PRC orders the Sovremenny Class Missile Destroyer from Russia, a cold war era warship designed to counter the U.S. Navy’s CVB. Then, in mid-December, during the visit to Moscow by Chinese Premier Li Peng, PRC subsequently orders modern attack submarines (Kilo Class) and warplanes (Su-30MKK2) to counter the U.S. Navy's CVBG while negotiation starts on a treaty to be signed next year. On the other hand, PRC attempts at intimidation through military tests and exercises also lead to the strengthening of military ties between the U.S. and Japan, increasing the role Japan would play in defending Taiwan.
Another important event occurs in Asia when, on September 18, a North Korean Sang-O class submarine runs aground in South Korea. Despite, numerous protestations from Pyongyang and from the international community, the crew are described as spys by South Korea and killed by the South Korean military. This puts an end to recent reconciliations efforts and North Korea applies for membership in Warsaw Pact 2.
Germany’s intervention on behalf of the Sudeten claims shows its impact during the May 1996 elections of the Czech Republic. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia gains a majority of the seats, Filip Vojtech forms the new government while Václav Havel is forced to resign in July. In September, the Czech Republic joins Warsaw Pact 2. In Romania, sole eastern country to remain outside of Russia’s influence, the government issues a law banning the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség) from the political scene. Antigovernment demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) take place in several Transylvanian cities and are suppressed by Romanian riot control police, with some loss of life. The Hungarian government protests the mistreatment of these people and, finally, diplomatic relations with Romania are suspended.
Since the fall of Berlusconi’s coalition in Italy, political instability remained the norm all over 1995 and this result in the surprising outcome of the April Elections. The Lega Nord gets almost 25% of the vote, gaining no less than 138 deputies and 67 senators as well as a majority of seats in all northern regions with the exception of Emilia-Romagna. Almost Immediately, Umberto Bossi, leader of the Lega Nord, reveals that his aim is the secession of Northern Italy under the name Padania. This becomes a reality when the two other politcal coalitions (L’Ulivo and Polo delle LibertÃ*) start to break up after summer. Popular demonstrations and riots plague the northern part of Italy from October to November and the secession is effective on November 26. With a large popular support and most of the Italian military siding with it, Padania quickly gains international recognition and an Italian National Conference is to be held in January 1997.
In Northern Ireland, the IRA ceasefire that has been in effect since 1994 comes to an end and several bombings take place. Elsewhere, in the Basque region of Spain, the failure of peace talks between ETA and the government is immediately followed by a new increase in ETA’s activities. That culminates with the assassination of the conservative candidates José MarÃ*a Aznar López right before the election. Elections are cancelled; Felipe González Márquez is confirmed in office by the Congreso de los Diputados while a state of emergency is declared. Failure of negotiations with rebellious movements does also happen outside of Europe, in the Philippines where peace talks with the Moro National Liberation Front come to a brutal end and in Guatemala where negotiation with the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Union is suspended. Russia, however, meets with success in Chechnya but this is gained only after a long bloody offensive lasting from January to May. The only true success comes from the finalization of the Chapultepec Peace Accords that had brought peace to El Salvador back in 1992. By the end of the year, rebel movements in various parts of the world are becoming increasingly active.

In the Middle-East, the Iraqi civil war continues but the Shiite, taking over the regular units of the Iraqi army and getting more support from Iran, asserts their control over Baghdad and over most of the southern half of the country. Consequently, they have their hand on most of the oil and this allows for a fairly important influx in cash. An Islamist Republic is established over Shiite’s controlled territory and Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr becomes the head of state. In the meantime the Kurds and the Sunni minorities, backed by the Iraqi Republican Guard continue the fighting. They are receiving an indirect support from the USA and supplies are coming in through Israel and Jordania. As a matter of fact, Clinton’s administration first plan to supply them through Anatolia but the deep distrust existing between the Turkish and Kurdish governments prevents this. In addition, on April 6, Turkish authorities launch “Operation Hawk�, an offensive against rebels from the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) in south-eastern Turkey.
Africa also gets its share. Colonel Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara deposes the first democratically elected president of Niger in a military coup. Fighting breaks out in Monrovia, Liberia, between various rebel factions and the faction led by Charles Taylor comes on top. Unrest continues in South Africa and, despite this being met with increasingly brutal force, the neighbours and the world remains silent. In November, the vice-governor of South Kivu Province in Zaire orders the Banyamulenge to leave the country on penalty of death and they erupt in rebellion. Anti-Mobutu forces combines to form the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Zaire (AFDL). The AFDL receives the support of the leaders of African Great Lakes states, particularly Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda while many elements of the Zairian Army joins Laurent Désiré Kabila as he marches from eastern Zaïre on Kinshasa.
Despite the various continuing tensions, the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta see the participation of every nation in the world. Nevertheless, this is not enough to allow Clinton to win the presidential election. His continuous focus on welfare reform is increasingly seen as out of date by the population and his action of the Iraq Civil War is perceived as a failure by most. Many US citizens are now thinking that it only led to a strengthening of Iran. As a result, Clinton is defeated by an unexpected Republican candidate: Steve Forbes and his co-chairman, Pat Buchanan.
On the same day, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's government is dismissed by President Farooq Leghari after widespread allegations of corruption. She is soon replaced by a increasingly military leadership.

1997
Fewer events take place during this year but old tensions continue to grow while new and important ones appear. Nowadays, this year is regarded as the year that triggered everything.
Rebel activity doesn’t slow down all over the world and in one case the rebels gets the upper hand in the ongoing fighting. On March 6, in Sri Lanka, the Tamil Tigers overrun a military base and kill more than 200. Following this victory, they push their advantage and launch a major offensive that provide them with substantial territorial gains.
In June, China and Russia sign the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, effectively starting an active cooperation in both civilian and military fields. Article 9 of the treaty is seen as an implicit defence pact by the West and this doesn’t go with no consequences. The United Kingdom breaks the agreement that should have handed sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, triggering the First Sino-Western crisis. Nothing happens beyond diplomatic level but UK reinforces its garrison there. The new U.S. administration is equally enraged and engages in a dramatic change of policy. First of all, it pushes NATO to invite Romania and Ukraine to join in 1999. Second, a fair increase in the military budget is voted and several older equipments that were put in reserve are now undergoing refit. Consequently, when the F-22 Raptor makes its first test flight, in September, the program gets more attention and secretary of defence declares that this plane is now intended to enter service in late 1999. At last, Forbes administration gets more deeply involved in the Iraqi Civil War and more supplies are sent to the Kurdish and Sunni factions. Again, the U.S. administration put pressure on Turkey but Ankara continues to refuse the opening of a supply line that would go from Antalya to Irbil.

Later, in September, when Turkey launches an offensive on PKK forces seeking refuge in Northern Iraq, the U.S. oppose this action and ask for a resolution from the UN security council. In addition, the U.S. provides a number of anti-air systems to the Kurds and several Turkish aircrafts are destroyed. Following these events, anti-American protests take place in several Turkish cities and the American embassy at Ankara is hit by mortar rounds in early November. Prime Minister Ahmet Mesut Yilmaz is forced out of office and popular pressure brings back Necmettin Erbakan to office (he was earlier pressured by the military to step down as the leader). On Christmas Eve, the constitution is amended and the country withdraws from NATO. In the meantime, U.S. diplomats succeed in bringing Albania, Greece and Macedonia to the discussion table. As a result, the three countries sign a mutual border agreement that provide some regional stability.
In Western Europe, the Italian National Conference last from January to the beginning of March and results in major changes for the country. Padania effectively gains independence and Umberto Bossi chose Ravenna to be the capital of the new state. This is done for both historical and political reasons: Ravenna had been the other capital city of the Western Roman Empire and Emilia-Romagna only reluctantly agrees to the Italian partition. As a result, the choice of Ravenna is intended to draw more support from that province’s population. While Padania already gained international recognition, the Napoli Republic is created over the southern half of the Peninsula. Ruled by a left-wing coalition named “Neo-Ulivo� and led by Romano Prodi. Both Italian states are immediately admitted to NATO. Finally, the Lazio and Sardigna don’t join with any of the two states and chose independence instead. They are led by Oscar Luigi Scalfaro (former Italian president) who immediately builds strong ties with Vatican City. As a result, that last state quickly becomes known as the “Papal State�.
After failure of a pyramid investment schemes and the loss of 1.2 billion$ invested by the Albanian population, thousands of citizens gather daily, demanding reimbursement. Protests soon turn violent in the south, especially around the port city of Vlora, where numerous residents arm themselves with weapons looted from army barracks. President Sali Berisha declares a state of emergency, but rioting and destruction spread throughout the country, gripping the capital, Tirana, for two weeks. Finally, anarchy sweeps across the country and the southern half of Albania falls under the control of rebels and criminal gangs. On March 11, the members of the Socialist Party win a major victory when their leader Bashkim Fino is appointed prime minister. However, the transfer of power does not stop unrest and, fearing the spread of unrest outside Albania's borders, the United Nations authorize a force of 7,000 to direct relief efforts and to restore order. After the unrest, over 3,000,000 guns are missing, they soon appear on the international market and many are transferred to the Kosovo Liberation Army (UçK).
Russia proposes to recognize Ukraine independence in return for the recognition of Crimea and for the transfer of all nuclear devices that had fallen under control of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is reluctant to accept this as this agreement implies that it definitely gives up claims on Crimea but, undermined by corruption, organized crime and a 60% reduction of its GDP, it finally accepts as the country gains recognition from all Warsaw Pact 2 members in October.
The First Congo War comes to an end in May when Laurent-Désiré Kabila enters Kinshasa, proclaims himself President and changes the name of the country to Democratic Republic of Congo. The situation in South Africa worsens and the country slowly enters a civil war with heavy fighting taking place in the eastern half of the country.

1998
Early this year, the world attention is attracted again toward what is happening in the Balkan Region. UçK attacks suddenly intensify, centered on the Drenica valley area and Serbian police responds to the UçK attacks in the Likosane area. They even pursue some of the UçK to Cirez, resulting in the deaths of 30 Albanian civilians and four Serbian policemen. Then, on March 5, the
Serb police pursues Jashari and his followers in the village of Donje Prekaz. Ultimately, a massive fire fight at the Jashari compound lead to the massacre of a further 60 Albanians, of which eighteen were women and ten were under the age of sixteen.

This event provokes massive condemnation from the western capitals and Pat Buchanan, despite the U.S. State Department listing the UçK as a terrorist organization, states that "This should not be considered internal affair of the FRY". A week later, the USA, France and the United Kingdom ask for a U.N. resolution allowing for a military intervention but this is vetoed by both China and Russia.
On the 24th of March, Serbian forces surround the village of Glodjane, in the Dukagjin operational zone, and attack a rebel compound there. Despite superior firepower, the Serbs fail to destroy the UçK unit which has been their objective. Nevertheless, there are deaths and severe injuries on the Albanian side and U.S. asks again for a UN resolution. When this is refused President Forbes calls for a press conference in Washington. Accompanied by the Secretary of Defence and by the Joint Chief of Staff, he declares that “the situation in Kosovo is posing a risk to regional stability and represents a direct threat to several NATO members�. Unable to get UN backing, the U.S. administration turns to NATO and plans are made for an all-out air offensive on Serbia. Nevertheless, as tactical and strategical difficulties appear, the attack is postponed and it becomes obvious that it will not take place before the end of this year. Then, as fighting continue between UçK and Serbian forces, the western countries involved build up charges on Serbia. By year’s end evidences are brought up of a planned ethnic cleansing by the Serbian authorities and, despite strong denial by the Serbs, these evidences are repeatedly presented to the western public.
After the D8 summit in Istanbul, Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan meets with the Iranian representative. Three weeks later, Turkey and Iran sign a military cooperation treaty also including the newly constituted Islamic Republic of Iraq. As a result, Turkey transfers technologies to Iran, sales several equipments while teams of engineers are sent to help in the modernization of the Iranian military forces.

This move is perceived as a threat by both Israel and the USA which suspend any collaboration that they still had with Turkey. More tensions appear when Turkey signs another agreement with Syria, establishing more friendly relations with that state. This time, the U.S. calls for an embargo on Turkey, followed in this by all NATO members. In retaliation, Turkey closes the Bosphorus to U.S. and E.U. military shipping. Israel, for its part, mobilizes more troops and increases its military presence in Southern Lebanon, also sending more supplies to the South Lebanese Army which soon expends to reach 3000 fighters again.
In August 1998, Kabila dismisses all ethnic Tutsis from the government and orders Rwandan and Ugandan officials to leave the DRC. The two countries then turns against their former client and send troops to aid rebels attempting to overthrow Kabila. Soon, the fall of the capital and Kabila, who had spent the previous weeks desperately seeking support from various African nations and Cuba, seems increasingly certain. Nevertheless, Kabila is saved when fellow members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) respond to Kabila's request for help, soon joined by several more nations: Chad, Libya and Sudan. However, these forces are unable to defeat the rebels, and the situation slowly escalates into direct conflict with the national armies of Uganda and Rwanda that form part of the rebel movement. Outside of Africa, most states remain neutral but Western mining and diamond companies, most notably from the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan supports the Kabila government in exchange for business deals.

[Mohoender]

1999
On March 12, Romania and Ukraine join NATO and, two weeks later, the defence organization launches air strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, attacking a sovereign state for the first time in its history. The proclaimed goal of the NATO operation is summed up by its spokesman as "Serbs out, peacekeepers in, refugees back". This action doesn’t have the backing of the UN as both China and Russia keep opposing it at the Security Council. In addition, People in some circles are fearful of a Warsaw Pact direct intervention on behalf of Yugoslavia. By April, however, it has become obvious that Warsaw Pact 2 and China do not plan such path of action.
China, also not militarily involved, grants technical support to Yugoslavia and helps Belgrade in his effort to lower the effect of NATO bombings. In addition, since the beginning of the attack, more and more military supplies are shipped through Warsaw Pact members to Belgrade, allowing for a higher level of readiness among Serbian forces: lost fighters are replaced, more modern anti-air units are deployed and, consequently, NATO losses increase slightly. The Serbian resistance is, by many ways outstanding but the situation proves increasingly difficult when NATO refocuses its attack on Serbian ground units.
Nevertheless, the situation evolves again, on May 7, after NATO bombing of the People's Republic of China embassy in Belgrade, triggering the Second Sino-Western Crisis. Three PRC citizens are killed, the Chinese are outraged and popular demonstrations take place in front of U.S. embassy in Beijing and U.S. consulates in other Chinese cities. Two days later, China asks for UN condemnation of NATO but, despite wide supports, this is vetoed by France, UK and US. Then, several members among Warsaw Pact 2 are becoming increasingly worried and, on May 15, volunteer units are mobilized to be sent in Serbia. At the same moment, a wave of demonstrations in western Poland by ethnic Germans supporting NATO intervention is violently suppressed by riot police, resulting in several deaths and numerous injuries. Germany protests and moves several divisions closer to the border.
Galvanized the Serbian will to continue the fight is reinforced and large demonstrations are held in Belgrade in support of the government. As a result, on June 12, the Serbian authorities reject a peace proposal and it becomes obvious that this war will not be ended without a ground offensive. Then, as this slowly starts to be discussed among NATO members, another wave of demonstration in western Poland is again violently suppressed. This time, small groups appear to be equipped with military small arms and Poland claims that the German army is behind this. Berlin denies any involvement with rioters but even more German military units move closer to the border to step up security.

The air offensive continues in the Balkans but loses intensity when evidences of UçK exactions toward the Serb population are released. Despite growing opposition from its citizens, NATO accelerates its work on a ground offensive but remains unable to launch it. Talks are taking place with Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia to allow NATO troops on their respective soils and in early July they results in an agreement from Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia in exchange for membership. Then, the turns of event changes again in mid-July as several border incidents occur between units of the Polish and German armies. Finally, on July 27 elements of the German III Corps cross the frontier in retaliation for what they described as a "full-scale attack" by the Polish 4th Mechanized Division. Within two days Poland and Germany are officially at war.
Despite an official backing of its army, the German government is worried as many in the Bundestag realize that they are far from adequately prepared for a long conflict. The Bundeswehr is an impressive tool but it just finished a period of very rapid growth and rebuilding, many of its units being equipped with tanks and vehicles which have sat idle in warehouses for four or five years. In addition, many fear that the attack will result in a full involvement of the Warsaw Pact. However, Poland doesn’t call for the other member’s help and it seems that the conflict could remain local; the international community feels some relief. By September, the only non-polish units involved are three Russian divisions and several squadrons of the frontal aviation stationed in Poland as part of the Warsaw Pact 2 joint command. The poles are fighting surprisingly well but they are outnumbered by the Germans and the Bundeswehr slowly progress in Polish territory, taking Poznan and Wroclaw in early December.
China is facing unrest in the Xinjiang province after the arrest of several Muslim Ouïghours, two of them being executed on January 28. Following this, several demonstrations are taking place in the regional capital of Urümqi and in several other cities but the PLA quickly move in and the repression is bloody. By early June, the international community account for 300 people killed and at least 5000 arrested. Nevertheless, Warsaw Pact members call for the respect of Chinese sovereignty while Burma and North Korea even express their support. On May 8, Rebiya Kadeer is arrested at Urümqi under the charge of “releasing state’s secret informations�. Following her arrest, her husband, Sidik Hadji Rouzi, is received at the White House while Canada, EU and the US grant him support and push for the formation of the “East Turkestan Government in Exile�. This triggers the Third Sino-Western crisis and, this time, Beijing had enough. Western assets in China are confiscated while western citizens are expelled. In addition, the Chinese government puts an embargo on all exports toward the Western world and, by years end, the consequences are serious. The Chinese government has passed several trade agreements with countries in South America and in Eastern Europe while it turns toward the domestic market but Chinese production has to be reduced by 70%. Millions of Chinese are leaving the cities to the countryside again but resentment is turned toward the West and the PLA soon experiences a fair increase in the number of volunteers wishing to enlist. In addition, the collaboration between China and Russia goes one step further when one of the Kiev-class carriers is transferred to China and renamed Mao Zedong. It is equipped with brand new Yak-141 and part of the crew remains Russian while Chinese seamen and pilots undergo tough and rapid training.
The Western World experiences a terrible economic crisis. With the invasion of Poland, Russia has suspended oil and gas exportations and energy prices are quickly going up. The Chinese embargo results in supply shortages and several goods are increasingly hard to find while inflation rises everywhere. By years end, civilian industrial production is pushed to its maximum, plants are being built and expended in other parts of the world (especially Mexico and Northern Africa) but it is widely understood that the situation will not improve before several months.
In South America, Hugo Chavez calls for a “Pan-Latin American Conference�. It is attended by all Latin American countries plus Cuba with the exception of Brazil, Columbia and Panama. This conference addresses several economical and military issues but doesn’t come up with much outside of the formation of the “Social Union of Latin America� composed by Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela. In the meantime, the British forces in Belize are brought up to full strength while US increases its military presence in Honduras and Panama.

2000
Fighting are still taking place in Poland where little gains have been made by both sides. This is especially true because of the tempest “Lothar� that hit Denmark, France, Germany and Switzerland right after Christmas 1999, forcing the German government to put the offensive on hold. However, things are back to normal by mid-February and the offensive is resumed. Still outnumbered, the Poles are showing some signs of exhaustion and the German progression is slowly gaining in speed. However, on March 2, a lost German unit crosses the Czech border near Ostrava and takes a Czech border platoon for a Polish unit. Fighting are short and the Czech are all killed. On the next day, a Czech investigation team find out that three of the border troops had been executed and, on March 5, Prague joins the war soon followed by Bratislava. Moscow answering the call for help issued by the Czech government sends more units and by the end of the month the Bundeswehr is in serious trouble. In addition, reinforced by the Czech, by the Slovaks and by fresh units of the Russian Frontal Aviation the Pact’s air force in the area is now qualitatively and quantitatively a match for the Luftwaffe. The Warsaw Pact forces finally crack the line of German reservists holding the southern flank and cuts north into Germany itself, closing on Berlin. As soon as they get to Germany, a fairly large number of former East German soldiers join with the Russian and form the “Karl Marx Korps�. Heady with victory, claiming that they get support from the East German, the Warsaw Pact leadership announces their intention to occupy and repartition Germany as a guarantee against any type of future aggression.

Claiming that their actions were justified by the military provocations of Poland and that they now face dismemberment as a state, Germany turns to its NATO partners for assistance. While the political leadership of the European members of NATO debate the prudence of intervention, the US Army crosses the frontier. Within a week, Denmark, Luxemburg and Padania demand that U.S. troops withdraw to their start line and (when these demands have no effect) withdraw from NATO in protest. British, Canadian, Dutch and Ukrainian forces cross the border, however, while troops from the other members remain in place, still partners in NATO but not yet party to war. On the Warsaw Pact’s side, Hungary refuses to join and declares neutrality allowing supplies to be sent through its territory, nevertheless.
In the Balkans, fighting are continuing and the NATO offensive is to be started in summer, NATO high command planning on a multiple front offensive: A small US corps (including Bosnian, Croatian, French and Italian units from the Napoli Republic) is to attack from the West, Greece is to launch its own offensive from the South while Romania would attack in the East. This change when Albania declares neutrality and mobilizes troops, the only option remaining to the Greek units being to cross through Macedonia. However, when the UçK launches a number of attacks on Macedonia, the Macedonian ambassador’s demands for US assistance are turned down and their government forbid the crossing of their territory. Nevertheless, the attack is launched in early June and Greek units enter Macedonia. Both Macedonia and Serbia are offered membership in Warsaw Pact 2 and accept. On the next day, Bulgaria enters the war while Moscow increases its military pressure on Ukraine as Romania now appears to be their final goal.
Fighting continue to build up in Europe all over summer but the result remain indecisive until late fall when Russian troops, attacking in the far north, make a bid for quick victory in northern Norway. As a result, NATO members which had remained outside of the conflict enter the war and the excellent Arctic-equipped divisions spearheading the Russian attack are unable to break through to the paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack British commandoes, French Foreign Legion and U.S. Marines join the battle, the front line moves east again toward the Soviet naval facilities on the Kola Peninsula, and several elite Soviet paratroopers and marines are isolated and destroyed. Soon, NATO troops are pushing toward Murmansk and are only stopped 60 miles away from the city by massive counter-attacks conducted with Russian’s third line troops.
At sea, the Soviet Red Banner Northern Fleet sorties and attempts to break through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other, and the Russian fleet performs well to western military specialist amazement. The Russians supports their fleet with bombers that prove capable of swarming two U.S. aircraft carriers with a large number of missiles. One of the carrier sink when its magazine explodes while the other is put ashore on the Norwegian coast. The Russians also use much of their submarine fleet (including Delta-class SSBN) in an offensive role and they are responsible for the loss of several NATO vessels, including HMS Illustrious and Foch. At last, receiving reinforcements, the western fleets come out on top, badly bloodied but victorious. Seventy percent of the Russian northern fleet tonnage rests on the bottom of the Norwegian and North seas (Including aircraft carrier Ulianovsk) but several major units such as the Kuznetsov and the battlecruiser Piotr Velikiy rally Murmansk. They continue to represent a serious threat to NATO control over the Atlantic. Moreover, most Typhoon-class SSBN and the Yuriy Dolgorukiy (sole Borey-class SSBN) as well as scattered commerce raiders break out and by year's end raiders are wreaking havoc on NATO convoys.
In the Baltic Sea, while most NATO vessels are fighting off the coast of Norway, various raids are launched against the depleted German harbours. These attacks are conducted using littoral warfare ships and commandoes brought by sea and by air, using fast assault boats, helicopters, and hovercrafts. Most attacks are highly successful and many facilities are badly damaged.
Far from the European theatre, a war erupts in the Caucasus when the Chechens rises and launch an offensive to overthrow the Russian rule in the region. Backed by the Georgian and the Armenian governments, the Chechens are well organized and their attacks are often successful. To everyone surprise, Grozny is quickly taken while Russian units are withdrawing, leaving a fair amount of equipments behind.

In the Middle East, Israel, despite previous promises, doesn’t withdraw from Lebanon. After the assassination of Colonel Aql Hashem (commander of the SLA western brigade), advocating the change in world situation, Tsahal even send more units to the area. Soon, Hezbollah increases its attacks and toward the end of the year, rockets are hitting northern Israel daily.
In July, the Sendaro Luminoso (Shining Path) guerrillas, much like the Chechens, takes advantage of international chaos to make a bid for control of Peru. They do not succeed but they do succeed in wresting about half of the country from central control. They immediately receive support from countries in the region (Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela) while, before new years eve, several South and Central American countries experience varying degrees of political instability. Drug cartels also become increasingly active and put more weight on legal authorities.
In other third world countries, food riots appear and insurgent movements continue to grow in strength, putting a heavy weight on governments. In early fall, a nasty civil war erupts in Nigeria, involving both religious and ethnic issues, and the country’s oil exportation almost come to a stop (oil shortage worsen again). In Central Africa, northern Cameroon and south-western Myanmar, riots turn to Ethnic wars. In South Africa, the bitter civil war continues but, from the beginning of the year, the Western world, in exchange for an access to South African resources, declares that this is strictly an internal problem and put an end to all sanctions.
In the U.S., the presidential elections are most unusual as both Democrats and Republicans support the president in Office. In the outcome, opposed only by a dozen petty candidates, Forbes is re-elected with over 80% of the votes. In the meantime, the heavy losses endured by the navy truly chocked the population and, just after the votes, the secretary of defence is arrested on charge of treason while an unknown Admiral becomes the new Secretary of Defence. In addition, Pat Buchanan resigns as vice-president and Donald Rumsfeld replaces him.

2001
Faced with stalemate in the Far North and a continuing revolt in Chechnya, Russia needs more troops. Most category B readiness divisions are mobilized and sent to the front by mid-year, and almost all of the remaining category A divisions from the Far East frontier garrisons are committed. Many of the low readiness category C divisions are upgraded to category B or mobilized, and for the first time in 50 years the mobilization-only divisions begin training. This is achieved through tremendous efforts from the populations and with help from the Chinese which are sending more and more supplies.
In the Caucasus, the Russian are receiving an increasing number of fresh troops and, by early spring, they launch an attack toward the Chechens but also toward Armenia and Georgia. This offensive is bloody and many reports point out Russian cruelties. Whatever, this meet with a tremendous success and most resistance is silenced within three weeks. In order to elude capture NATO advisors flee through Turkish Kurdistan but they are intercepted by the Turkish army and taken into custody. The Turkish government claims that this is a provocation and, this time, closes the Bosphorus to all NATO shipping, effectively isolating Romania and Ukraine.
Following this, Romanian and Ukrainian commitment to the Balkan front decreases and the Greeks start to blame Turkey for their army’s lack of success. Anti-Turk demonstrations are held all over the country and in Cyprus. Finally, the Cypriot national guard fires at Turkish units and Ankara reacts by sending reinforcements while Greece diverts a number of combat aircrafts to support the island national guard. As fighting increase, Turkey declares war on Greece, attacking in Cyprus and launching an offensive in Thrace and East Macedonia. The Turks are quickly progressing toward Thessaloniki and several Greek units are taken out of the Bulgarian front to face this new threat. At last, Padania concludes a defence pact with Turkey. While Padania is not obligated by the pact to enter the Greco-Turkish war, Padania declares the war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more general war raging over Europe, promising to intervene on Turkey’s side if NATO tries to tip the balance in Greece’s favour. Within a week, Turkey declares a naval blockade against Greece and warns world’s shipping that the Aegean is now considered a war zone.


In Romania, when the police shots and kill a man crossing the border with Hungary, the Hungarian government suspends diplomatic relations. The Romanians claim he was a smuggler, bringing arms to antigovernment forces. Three days later, a Romanian railway station in Cluj is blown up and the Romanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Romania. However, police sweeps are met with armed resistance and, within a week, a secessionist Magyar government declares independence from Romania. As what little remains of Romanian troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests, is ignored, and then declares war.
This conflict remains local, however, and a cease fire is signed within two weeks, Romanian troops withdraw and Hungarian units enter the secessionist region as peacekeepers. While this is settled, the front in Romania and Ukraine stabilizes and enters a period of attritional warfare. Russian mobilization-only divisions, largely leg mobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armoured personnel carriers, enter the lines. Although the Romanians and Ukrainians prove better soldiers than the over-aged and ill trained Russian recruits, the manpower difference begins to be felt while both countries are experiencing tremendous supply problems. Finally, with the Warsaw Pact dominating the air and the water all around the Black Sea, the best Russian troops open a corridor dividing Ukraine in two and, by May, they have managed to control a good portion of Southern Ukraine while advanced armoured elements occupy most of Moldavia and progress toward Bucharest and Ploesti.
In the meantime, as Turkey pressure on the Greek left flank in Thrace builds, it becomes clear that, without aid, the Greek Army will have to fall back or be defeated. On June 27th, a NATO convoy, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempts the run to the Greek port of Thessaloniki with badly needed ammunition and equipment. Fleet elements of the Padanian and Turkish Navy intercept the convoy and, in a confused night action off Thessaloniki, inflict substantial losses and escape virtually unharmed. Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes on Padanian and Turks naval bases. On July 1st, Turkey declares war against NATO while Padania, in compliance with its treaty obligations, follow suit on the 2nd. Then, Padanian airmobile, alpine, and armoured units cross the mountain passes into Tyrolia where scattered elements of the Austrian Army resist briefly before being overwhelmed. By mid-month, Padanian mechanized forces are debouching into southern Germany and advanced elements are attacking German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich. In the meantime, other units are slowly pushing toward Zagreb while the Napoli Republic is already reduced to Sicily. For a time, the Padanian armies enjoy tremendous success as most of their opponents are already fully engaged elsewhere. In addition, they have intact peacetime stockpiles to draw on but, as time goes by, they begin feeling the logistical pinch.
As a matter of fact, on the first day of the New Year, the NATO heads of state have declared their support for a Polish government in exile, headed by a committee of Polish émigrés. While the news is greeted with scattered worker uprisings in Poland, the majority of the Polish Army remains loyal to the central government, and open resistance is soon crushed. An underground movement begins forming, however, and by spring small guerrilla bands, leavened by Polish Army deserters, begin to harass Warsaw Pact supply convoys and installations.
Meanwhile, in an attempt to restore the situation in Germany, Warsaw Pact troops return to the offensive in southern Germany but do not have the strength to make any significant gains. With the coming of spring, the NATO offensive gains momentum and in April the first German troops cross the frontier into Poland. By June 17th, Warsaw is surrounded, and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepare for a siege.
By late spring, NATO’s Atlantic fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders. Attack carriers and missile cruisers move again to northern waters in order to face the continuous threat of the surviving Russian capital units. The NATO drive in the north has been pushed back in and bogged down on the banks of the Tana River, but the Northern Front commander plans on a bold move to destroy the Russian naval and ground power there. Ground units are to attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland while NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk, subjecting the Soviet fleet anchorages and air bases to massive bombardments.

On June 7th the ground offensive is launched and the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula shortly thereafter. Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory; instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, forcing the flanking move to abort. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and the remnants of Northern Fleet supported by what was left of the shore-based naval aviation cripple the NATO fleet. By mid June, NATO losses are tremendous and, at that moment, two major naval fleet in the world have been shattered.
With the coming of the fall season, as NATO advanced elements are closing up on the Polish-Russian frontier while continuing the siege of Pact-held Warsaw, it becomes obvious to the Russian central command that the still powering up industry of the western countries will soon tip the balance in favour of NATO. Despite the stalemate in the Balkan and in the Arctic and continuing successes in Ukraine, Moscow will certainly have to commit even more troops to the war effort. If victory is not coming quickly, it may even have to draw again on mobilization-only divisions. Then, with Russian industries already working at their best and more equipments still being needed, a new call is made on China for more fresh supplies. Beijing responds favourably and Chinese-made weapons are sent in much larger quantities through the Tran Siberian.

[Mohoender]

2002
When western medias start to report about more Chinese equipments being sent to Russia, U.S. citizens are outraged and demonstrations are held all over the country. As a result, the U.S. administration sends an ultimatum to Beijing, leaving two days for the Chinese President to suspend all shipping to Russia. On the following day, China joins with Warsaw Pact 2 and two major offensives are launched in Asia: Russian troops are landing in Hokkaidô (Japan) while Chinese and North Korean troops cross the 38th parallel into South Korea. The Pact is highly successful in Korea, destroying the South Korean air force, sinking its navy before it can leave to the open sea, and conquering most of the country except for a small area covering 50 miles around Pusan. However, the operations in Japan are an entirely different matter as the Russians fail to take the JGSDF by surprise. After, limited initial success, the landing forces is expelled and the retreating troops are shipped back to Sakhaline Island.

In February, the U.S. navy has gathered an important fleet and launches a joint operation with the Japanese and Taiwanese fleets. This will last for two months but when the operation come to an end the joints fleets virtually destroyed their opposing forces: only small ships survive in China and North Korea while the Russian Pacific Fleet has lost almost ninety percent of its naval surface vessels. At that time, more reinforcements from Japan and ANZUS have been brought to South Korea and they start their own push toward the 38th parallel, crossing it within weeks and bringing fighting to Pyongyang. The allied naval forces suffered significant losses but remain operational and have enough strength to provide more than ample cover for the reinforcements being sent to the Hong Kong area. This is involving troops from ANZUS, Japan, the Philippines and U.K., and they start a push toward central China. Meanwhile, Vietnam has joined with the allied and its army is crossing into Yunnan and Guangxi facing heavy fighting in southern China. The allied enjoy rapid initial success, and tank columns roared deep into southern and central China. However, the Chinese surpassed the expectations of most military analyst in their ability to mobilize reserves from the interior and shift them to the fighting front. While the allied continued to make impressive gains, their losses mounted and the tempo of advance went down.
Pakistan becomes increasingly militaristic and the country drifts into war with India through a spiral of border incidents, mobilization, and armed clashes. Tensions over the Kargil district of Kashmir are growing quickly and, if Pakistan blames the fighting entirely on independent Kashmiri insurgents, documents left behind by casualties show involvement of Pakistani paramilitary forces, led by Pakistani Generals. As a result, the Second Kargil War is initiated and, by year’s end, the Indian Army is slowly advancing across the length of the front, despite fierce resistance.
Thus far, the Middle East was spared despite growing and continuing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah but the events precipitate after New Years Eve and Israel moves first. After a series of artillery bombardment and cross border air strikes, the Israelis launch a surprise attack that Initially take the Arabs by surprise but the Syrian army recovers quickly while Hezbollah sends more and more fighters to the front line. There are heavy fighting in the Bekaa Valley and in South Lebanon but the Arabs rely on an innovative type of fighting, using the best Russian RPGs, and Tsahal is losing tanks fast. Only the timely arrival of Israeli airborne troops prevents total disaster. After this setback, the campaign settles into a stalemate and Damascus eventually fall, but only after a long and costly siege. While this goes on, the situation in Iraq steadily worsens as the Shia increase their pressure on Kurdish and Sunni held territories. These Shia troops are soon joined by several units from Iran while Turkey sends what it can on the Kurdish rear areas. The answer from the West isn’t slow and troops are taken from where it is possible and rushed to Saudi Arabia as Kurdish and Sunni units retake several positions in the south and in the north. That move is so fast that Jordanian and Saudi troops, backed by Egyptians, Kuwaitis and NATO troops from France, UK and the USA, are entering the South of Iraq at the time of the Jewish Passover.
Nevertheless, despite this bold move, the allied are unable to gain full supremacy and their various offensives quickly come to a halt. In Turkey, they are stopped on a line running from Batman to Erzurum and Kars. Meanwhile, Syrians and Lebanese, still doing great, stop them at Dayr-ez-Zor and on the Litani River. The situation worsens even more in May when Iran side with Warsaw Pact 2. As the mullahs legalise the Tudeh (Iranian Communist Party), Iranian troops are rushed to the coast while Russian units from the Caucasus and Central Asia enter the region. Then, NATO launches a major landing operation on Bender Bushehr and Bender Abbas. In North Africa, Morroco and Tunisia joined with Egypt in support of NATO while Algeria, Libya and Mauritania support Warsaw Pact 2. Outside some naval engagements all these countries are lightly involved in the war but fighting among them is brutal.
In Europe, the Pact is bringing in more troops and the progression of NATO is not as impressive as expected. It is only by early October that advanced elements are closing up on the Russo-Polish frontier, while continuing the siege of Pact-held Warsawa. On the Italian Front, with the French still stuck on the Alpine range and the Napoli Republic reduced to the sole Sicily, Padanian forces are holding their grounds and the southern frontier of Germany as well as most of Austria remain under their control.

In Africa, ethnic tensions are now spreading like a plague and only a few countries escape the growing chaos. Latin America, however, still remains outside of the conflict and, despite several verbal attacks, Venezuela keep sending a trickle of oil to the western world.

2003
Despite continuous efforts from the USA and NATO and a successful offensive that bring Minsk within artillery range, the difficulties in Europe increase when more Pact units, still partially equipped with Chinese equipments, enter the field. The allied forces are still better trained and equipped but, increasingly outnumbered, they are slowly pushed back and, by mid-year, the siege of Warsaw is lifted and Pact units are trying to make the run through Poland and the Czech Republic to Germany. They also occupy Latvia and Lithuania, forcing their reincorporation within R.U.S.S.. Romania and Ukraine, isolated again and exhausted, see no choice but to surrender. In both countries, several units refuse to obey and form the core of a strong guerrilla. Whatever, the collapse of the Romano-Ukrainian front has freed several Pact units that are soon redirected toward the other fronts.
In China, large bodies of citizen’s militia are now operating behind the allied front lines, attacking installations and destroying supply convoy. Moreover, the allied fail to disrupt the military industry located in the north and more equipment are coming out every day. As a result, when the main Chinese and R.U.S.S. conventional forces counterattack, to the amazement of western military experts, large pockets of allied troops are formed. The Vietnamese are experiencing the most important losses while the allied units are able to fight their way out of the pockets, losing much in the process. The front is shattered and the allied begin major withdrawals all along the front line as mobile elements of the Chinese Army rush into victorious pursuit.
In July, with several Warsaw Pact units trying to link with Padanian units in Austria and closing on Berlin, Allied High Command is to decide upon the limited use of nuclear weapons. On August 15th, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is accepted with the exception of France and Belgium which leave NATO, signing a separate peace with Warsaw Pact 2, Padania and China. As a result, their units start pulling out from the various fronts. On September 15th, the first tactical nuclear weapons are used in Europe. They are used sparingly at first but the forward elements of both armies are hit hard. By late October, the Pact forces that entered Germany engage in a general withdrawal, practicing a careful scorched earth policy as they fall back. In the Balkan, NATO forces also begin a major offensive and the one-sided use of tactical nuclear weapons breaks the stalemate. By month’s end, the Greeks are racing toward Istanbul. Simultaneously, other troops launch an attack on Macedonia and Serbia. The Macedonian army collapses and the country fall to the Greeks but, if the Serbian Army began to break up, the arrival of Russian reserves stop the allied columns before they reach the first Beograd’s suburb.
Meanwhile, as summer turns to fall, Padania is facing major air strikes and an overall naval offensive by NATO. In an attempt to conquer the all of Italy, Portuguese, Spanish and U.S. troops, reinforced by remnants of the Napoli Republic army, are landing in Calabria and Campania and start pushing toward the north. Padanian forces pulling out of Austria, establish strong defensive position on the Alpine passes and bring reinforcements to the south, finally stopping the armies of NATO to the south of Ancona, in the Abruzzo.
At sea, a NATO task force, strengthen by the Egyptian navy, is met by a combined fleet of Padanian and Turkish vessels. Fighting last for three days and, momentarily, NATO opens the sea-lane to the Croatian and Greek harbours. However, the tactical advantage usually provided by large aircraft carriers is largely reduced by the small distance between the opposing fleets and, when the Russian Black Sea Fleet shows up, the NATO task force has to retreat and this naval combat is to become the only Pact victory at sea. Padania has lost its sole carrier, the Guiseppe Garibaldi, while the Moskva exploded with all hands but this remain limited when you compare it to the losses of NATO: the Principe de Asturias, the HMS Ark Royal and two U.S. aircraft carriers are sunk while most large ships from all countries are lost or badly damaged. On the outcome, if both fleets suffer much, the Mediterranean is now closed to standard allied shipping.

In the Far East, nuclear strikes are carried out on a more massive scale and Chinese mechanized columns are vaporized, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit. Chinese population and industrial centers are also targeted, effectively ending most of the war productions. The Chinese communication and transportation system, already stretched to the near breaking point, disintegrates and the roads are choked with refugees fleeing from the remaining cities. The Chinese response is immediate, but allied forward troop units are dispersed and well prepared. Moreover, the handful of Chinese bombers, trying to conduct low-level penetration raids are all intercepted by the JASDF and destroyed. Ballistic missile attacks on Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam population centers are effective, however, but the ones made at the USA are frustrated by the ABM shield that has been put up over the past years. Within a week, the Chinese riposte is spent, but allied attacks continue. China begins the rapid slide into anarchy and civil disorder. Within a month, the government of Beijing is overthrown and the state of affairs is taken over by local officers who assume the title of Warlords. Within this sea of chaos, Manchuria only remains faithful to the Pact, getting support from Russian forces and still participating in the war.
Pakistan and India wage their own nuclear war when Pakistan, facing defeat, launches a pre-emptive strike on India’s economy and nuclear strike force. Although industrial centers are hit hard, enough of India’s nuclear arsenal survives to launch a devastating retaliatory strike. The Indian-Pakistani war soon winds down, as each country’s economy no longer can feed its civilians, let alone supply military units.

2004
With the elimination of China, Warsaw pact 2 finds itself in a very bad situation when NATO air units begin making deep nuclear strikes against communication hubs in Belarus. Warsaw Pact 2 responds with theatre nuclear missiles, launching them against an array of industrial targets and port cities in the Netherlands and Germany. In turn, NATO uses similar strikes on industrial targets and major port cities in western Russia. Throughout spring, the exchange continues, escalating gradually. Both sides hesitate to target the land based ICBMs of the other but Russia crosses the line over mid-year. The ABM shield that has been so efficient against China fails to stop the attack and SS-18 Satan decapitates the entire U.S. ICBM defence. After that decapitating strike, escalation can’t be stopped. Industrial targets clearly vital to the war effort are targeted, followed by economic targets of military importance (transportation and communication, oil fields and refineries). Then, some industrial and oil centers in neutral nations are hit. The civilian political command structure is first decimated, and then eliminated (almost by accident in some cases) and the exchange keeps on, fitfully and irregularly, until October when it gradually peters out.
In the fields, the situation goes from bad to worse for both sides. The average strength of NATO combat divisions at the front has fallen to about 8,000, with U.S. divisions running at about half of that. Warsaw Pact 2 divisions now vary widely in strength, running from 500 to 10,000 effectives, but mostly in the 2000-4000 range. Lack of fuel, spare parts, and ammunition paralyze the armies and no major actions are taken during the second half of that year. Peace might have come, but there are no surviving governments to negotiate it. Only the military command structures remain intact, and they remain faithful to the final orders of their governments. In a time of almost universal chaos, only the military has the means of securing and distributing rations. Moreover, military casualties have been much lower than casualties among civilians.
In Africa, insurgency continues and a number of nuclear strikes hit the continent by years end. In North Africa, many oil fields and various cities are destroyed while Egypt is subjected to a strike that matches the ones conducted over major regions. In the ensuing chaos, only Libya retains some form of government ruling from Misurata. In Sub-Saharian Africa, the bombings hit Nigera, and Cabinda and, as this add to the already chaotic situation, more governments collapse. In South Africa, the civil war continues but the white minority (now supported by white farmers from Botswana and Zimbabwe) gains superiority when it finally uses nuclear devices on neighbouring countries supporting the Black Insurgency: one is dropped on Namibia, two are launched toward Mozambique and two more are used on South Africa’s national soil.
Through Latin America, in addition to instability and insurgent movements, the drug cartels influence continues expending, as the various governments are gradually loosing strength.

[Mohoender]

2005
The winter of 2004-2005 is particularly cold. Civilian war casualties in the industrialized nations have reached almost 20 percent by the turn of the year, communication and transportation systems have been wiped out, and food distribution has become almost impossible.
In the wake of nuclear war and global unrest comes famine on a scale previously undreamed of, but the worst is yet to come. The exceptionally cold winter delayed simultaneous epidemics but, with the spring thaw, the unburied dead finally bring on the epidemics the few remaining medical professionals had dreaded but were powerless to prevent. Plague, typhoid, cholera, typhus, and many other diseases sweep through the world’s population. HIV and Tuberculosis are spreading faster again but the worst comes from SARS and regular flu. By the time they have run their courses, the global casualty rate will be 60%.
In mainland Europe, France is the only somewhat major power to stand virtually alone in maintaining a semblance of internal order throughout the cataclysm. Then, the governments of France, Belgium and Luxembourg form the FBU (Franco-Belgian Union). They are quickly joined by surviving African countries (Cameroon, Djibouti, Gabon, Senegal and Tunisia) and by a few States from the Middle-East (UAE and Oman). As refugees begin flooding across their borders, they closed their frontiers, and military units begin turning people back with gunfire. In the Pyreneans, there are several skirmishes with rogue Spanish units while people are trying to cross into south-western France. In the north, the new government authorizes the army to move west to the Rhine to secure a solid geographical barrier. As refugees pile up on the frontier and as fighting occurs with the Dutch, a large lawless zone springs into existence. Unrest and fighting for food are followed by mass starvation and disease, until the lawless zone becomes barren and empty.

Around the Black Sea, the partisan bands in the mountains of Romania and former Ukraine have escaped almost untouched, while many Pact regular units were destroyed in the exchange or have just melted away after it. The Romanians and Ukrainians begin forming regular combat units again, although still structured to live off the land and subsist from captured enemy equipment. At first, there is a great deal of enemy equipment just lying around waiting to be picked up. Meanwhile, in the Balkan, the Greek army directly annexes Macedonia.
In North America, a flood of hungry refugees begin crossing the Rio Grande into Mexico. This is too much for Mexico, the government fell and is replaced by a socialist coalition, led by the PRI, which establishes a number of large refugee camps. Over, summer, with the heat going up, the refugees camps start to be touched by widespread food riots and the new government order this violence to be dealt with military force. The U.S. Joint Chiefs of staff protests, start to move what troops it can gather to the south and, within weeks, fearing retaliation from the U.S., Mexican army units cross the Rio Grande while the Social Union of Latin America declares war on its behalf. More U.S.units are quickly shifted south and scattered fighting grow into open warfare. Mexican light armoured columns, backed by Cuban units and by the Russian division “Latin America�, drive northeast toward Arkansas and northwest into southern California. In addition Russian troops make a tremendous effort in the Artic and launch a successful landing in Alaska. Another one, however, carried out by Cuban and Venezuelan forces in Florida fails as it is repelled by New American fighters and Cuban Americans fighting alongside. At last, the fronts quickly stabilize in southeast Texas and central California while civil disorder and anarchy spread elsewhere in the USA with the withdrawal of army units.
Further south, the U.S. 4th Fleet takes action against SULA naval units and does its best to achieve supremacy. However, it has very reduced assets and control of the seas is hardly ever entirely achieved. Meanwhile Venezuelan troops are attacking Colombia while the Sandinistas are entering Costa Rica in an attempt to seize the Panama Canal. These military operations all come to a brutal stop when nukes are used against the various countries that compose the SULA. On the outcome, Central America is in turmoil, Venezuela is scorched, Ecuador and Peru are facing major insurgencies, Bolivia and Colombia fall to the drug cartels, Panama is still under U.S. control, and Cuba remains organized (except for the Havana which was destroyed by a nuke).
In late June, Pact forces in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia try a last gamble and launch an offensive toward Austria and South Germany in an attempt to seize the scattered surviving industrial sites of Europe. Actually, those areas in Austria and South Germany which had been under Italian occupation are still in good shape, as neither side was willing to strike them heavily. At first, NATO forces are largely insufficient but reinforcements are quickly brought from Germany and galvanize the allied into renewed action. The NATO forces make a maximum effort to reform a coherent front and, as a result, the Pact offensive finally stalls along a line that is going from Linz to Spittal while they fail to enter Southern Germany for long.
In late August, NATO launches its own offensive from the area of Krakow, driving south to penetrate the Pact rear areas in Slovakia. The thinly spread Pact units are quickly overwhelmed and Russian forces in the Czech Republic begin a precipitous withdrawal to Slovakia. A simultaneous and surprising offensive by remnants of Croatian and Bosnian armies drive north in an attempt to link up with NATO, forcing the Hungarian neutrality. This proves to have been the most unwise gamble on NATO’s part when they are halted near Lake Balaton and decimated by the Hungarians. Then, the survivors are thrown back as Hungarian troops secure their southern border. As more Pact units arrive in Slovakia and Eastern Poland, the NATO drive runs out of steam and loses its sense of direction. Troops are shifted west to face several Czech units crossing the border into Germany in an ultimate effort to stabilize the front while many lives are wasted in a futile attempt to force the Alpine passes into Padania.
As the autumnal rains begin, NATO and the Pact initiate several high altitude nuclear strikes that generate a large amount of EMPs. All of what was left in term of industrial centers over the world is shot downed and civilian equipments suffer to a level that was unthought-of. Fighting gradually runs down to the level of local skirmishing and both sides prepare for another winter.

2006
When the even harsher winter is over people around the world start taking a true measure of the disaster and, depending on their location they are facing widely different situations.
In Northern America, most major cities are ruined and the last high altitude exchange fried what remained of the industrial infrastructures. No one is able to replace the destroyed components and all production has come to a halt. In addition, survivors find themselves with non-functioning equipments that would be badly needed. Only the army and a very few civilian administrations seem to be functioning, still having some means of communication. The only bright point comes from the fact that many vehicles are in working order, allowing for some hope has spring planting approaches. Then, once this is finished with, the United States Congress reconvenes for the first time since what is now known as “The Exchange�. Several senators among the surviving ones don’t attend, however, but that doesn’t forbid Senator John Broward (D, Ark), the former governor of Arkansas who appointed himself to fill one of the two vacant senatorial seats, to be elected President by the House of Representatives. General Jonathan Cummings, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, refuses to recognize the constitutional validity of the election, citing the lack of a proper quorum and irregularities in the credentials of the attending congressmen.
(Although Cummings' decision will later be widely criticized, there is much validity to his position. Many congressional seats are disputed; several of the congressmen in attendance are merely self-appointed local strongmen who have gained control of large parts of the old congressional districts, and some have never seen the districts they purport to represent. There is at least one confirmed gunfight between rival claimants to a seat while Congress is in session.)
General Cummings declares a continuation of martial law until such time as a new census is practical, that being necessary for a meaningful reapportionment of congressional seats and presidential electoral votes. President Broward responds with a demand for Cummings' resignation, which Cummings declines to submit. While some military units side with the civilian government, a majority continue to take orders from the Joint Chiefs, particularly those overseas, for a simple reason: the habit of obedience is deeply ingrained, and, in many cases, is all that had allowed units to survive thus far. The main effect of the split is a further erosion of central authority. Forced to choose between two rival governments (CivGov/Milgov), both with considerable flaws in their claims to legitimacy, many localities simply choose to ignore both. Alaska and Hawaii are de facto independent but support MilGov, Utah and Texas declare independence, and the Confederate Sovereign States (CSS) are formed by Alabama, Geogia, Mississippi and Tennessee. Moreover, New America increases its actions nationwide and establishes protectorates over Maine and Florida. In Canada, Quebec, backed by the Franco-Belgian Union, declares independence.
The surviving foreign and national organizations dealing or concerned with the United States choose between the rival governments. The German government and Her Majesty’s Government in UK continue relations with the Joint Chiefs, while France, the UN office at Geneva, and the various commands from the Balkan recognize the civilian government. The remnants of the Central Intelligence Agency obey the orders of the civilian government, while the National Security Agency, loyal to the Joint Chiefs, and organize a field operations branch to replace the CIA "defectors." Officially, forces of the two governments refrain from violent confrontation, but there are sporadic local clashes over key installations, occasional bloody coups within military units, and numerous assassinations and "ditty tricks" by rival intelligence agencies.
In the autumn, the dispatch of troops to Europe resumes, although only as a trickle. A few warships are available as escorts, and various old merchant vessels are pressed into service as transports. Initiated by the civilian government, both governments briefly compete in a struggle to outdo the other, viewing success as a litmus test of their ability to mobilize the nation. In fact, the call-ups affect only the Atlantic coast and lead to widespread resistance. The dispatch of troops, supplies and equipment to Europe makes little sense to most, considering the appalling state of affairs in the United States. The reinforcements send include a small number of light vehicles and ammunition but consist mostly of light infantry. Mortars are becoming the most popular support weapon for troops, as they can be turned out in quantity from small machine shops and garages.

In Europe, the situation is very similar and often more dramatic in areas that saw much more fighting. Production infrastructures were fried as in the US and in many regions industrial production have ceased to exist. Moreover, this is equally true at the agricultural level as much equipment had been destroyed over the course of the war. Food production is, then, running very low and many among the surviving authorities are faced with the worse difficulties to feed their populations. Nevertheless, in several areas, some kind of central control continues to exist and these authorities are engaged in the slow process of rebuilding a limited portion of their industries.
A few exceptions exist nonetheless in countries that were not directly involved in the conflict. In these countries (Albania, Denmark, Hungary, Ireland, Sweden and Switzerland) the governments remain in control and are capable of rebuilding part of their damaged infrastructures, allowing for limited industrial production and for better standard of living.
Another interesting case is that of Russia itself. Moscow survived and a limited amount of industry (older and less vulnerable to EMPs) remains capable of producing goods. In addition, a fair portion of the state remains officially under central control but this is only good on paper. As a matter of fact, the huge size of the state generates the worse difficulties along supply lines and several local commanders, also loyal to Moscow, refuse to take any action outside security duties.
Almost everywhere the fronts are static for most of the year. Low troop densities mean that infiltration raids become the most common form of warfare. The "front" ceases to be a line and becomes a deep occupied zone, as troops settle into areas and begin farming and small scale manufacturing to meet their supply requirements. Local civilians are hired to farm and carry out many administrative functions in return for security from the increasing numbers of marauders roaming the countryside. In other areas, the security the military unit provides to its civilians was from the unit itself, a post-nuclear version of the ancient "protection" racket. Many units stationed in barren areas drift apart or turn to marauding when supplies do not arrive. Although, toward early fall, a large scale offensive is conducted by the Russians in the Scandinavian peninsula in an attempt to seize production facilities and raw materials there. However, the various countries of the Scandinavian Peninsula face this new threat together and the “New Kalmar Union� is signed between Finland, Norway and Sweden. As a result, their forces prove more than a match for the Russian units engaged and the attack fails rapidly except for the conquest of Gotland Island.
In Latin America, a short but violent war between Argentina and Brazil results in the last nuclear exchange of the war. Brasilia, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, and Sao Paulo are destroyed in Brazil while Bahia Blanca, Buenos Aires, Mar del Plata and Santa Fe are grounded in Argentina. Large scale riots, then, strike both countries and, as what is left of their respective armies is too weak to face the civil disorder, governments are wiped out. When everything is over, Gangs have taken over the surviving cites, drug cartels are leading the countryside, and the only legal government that subsist rules over the Amazonas with its capital city at Manaus. Elsewhere in Latin America, guerrilla groups and cartels increase their pressure again on remaining governments and the region quickly becomes a powder keg where travelling is highly dangerous. Only a few islands of relative stability remain over South and Central America while a single country is still unspoiled: Chile.
In the Middle-East, there still are some continuing operations but the various opponents are slowly reaching some kind of equilibrium. Limited fighting continue in Iran and Iraq as the region keeps exploiting a few oil rigs allowing for all commands to maintain some kind of true air cover and naval operation. Even Israel survived but now resembles an under siege stronghold.
In Asia, the fronts are static as in Europe. Japan is devastated with the government only controlling Hokkaidô while a fair part of the population enters a Diaspora. China is in chaos while limited military operations still take place over the Korean Peninsula. South East Asia, also spared by the nukes, is also in Chaos due to several factors and the only slightly stable country in the region is Thailand. Finally, a civil war stroke Indonesia and Australia got and remains involved. This is possible because Australia, now part of the Oceanian Union, was almost entirely spared by the war. Its infrastructures were of course damaged by the EMPs but these are slowly rebuilt and the country is on the path of becoming the sole true industrial country in this world.

Whatever, the effects of the chaos ensuing from the destruction of world trade and the death of a sizable portion of the population is felt globally. Africa is hit particularly hard, as the war cuts off production and shipment of the HIV anti-virus just as the AIDS active infection rates tops 50%. No territory though, however remote, remains untouched by the war. Even scientific stations in the Antarctic, and orbiting space laboratories are hit as the war drags on.

2007
By the spring of 2007, most armies, worldwide, have settled into their new "cantonment" system. Civil authority has virtually ceased to exist. Most military units are practicing extensive local recruiting in an attempt to keep up to strength, and stragglers are often incorporated into units regardless of nationality. Thus, U.S. units contain a wide variety of former NATO and Warsaw Pact soldiers in addition to Americans. Nominal titles of units (brigades. divisions, etc.) have little bearing on the actual size of the unit.
In early summer, the German Third Army, spearheaded by the U.S. Eleventh Corps, moves out of its cantonments on what is to become the last strategic offensives of the war.

2008...
Military actions have been reduced to the local level and the world situation doesn’t show many signs of recovering. Outlaws and devastated areas are everywhere and most authorities only have very limited means of actions. Cities have been reduced to rubbles, industrial output remains very low, and many lands escape any kind of control. In the few truly surviving countries, civil rights have been greatly reduced and martial law is often enforced.

[Mohoender]

And I'm lucky, the current storm didn't cut power supply and the Internet.