South Africa and the Twilight War (from Archive)

[kato13]

Jason Weiser

South Africa and the Twilight War

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Hmm,
This is something we didn't address ever here, as far as I can remember. Personally, I'd say the South African government (remember, it's still FW DeKlerk in charge) is going to side with NATO. Mandela would probably not have been freed (the ANC had a lot of links to Moscow, and even as unsavory as the former government was, the ANC was not much better in it's conduct during aparthaid days). I think though, the laws concerning aparthaid would have been relaxed, though when the nukes flew, Martial Law would have been somewhat colorblind.

As for the SADF, I think they would have been very active from the beginning. Angola would have flared up, and Luanda and Maputo (both important Soviet anchorages) would have been early targets from the outset of SAAF strikes.

UNITA might have had enough werewithal to kick the Cubans out, and the Spanish Main module alludes to that. So, what say you fellow members of the board....

Jason Weiser

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FightingFlamingo

SADF and it's government would have had to have sided with NATO. Otherwise I think the USMC would have wound up occupying Cape Town (as in Hacketts Book), just to secure the SLOC to CENTCOM.

the US does have a history of supporting anyone whom professed to be anti-communist even if they were neofacist, unfortunately...

FightingFlamingo

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ReHerakhte

You have to keep in mind too that the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and Israel had very strong ties, they had many assistance programmes going to the point that the Israelis helped South Africa develop their nuclear weapons technology (the RSA had seven nukes, I believe they were free fall delivered, all were destroyed before the handover to the ANC government). Both nations saw themselves and each other as modern First World countries surrounded by Third World enemies and therefore, obvious allies.

I don't think there's any doubt that the RSA would have sided with the West, they might not have been strictly pro-NATO but they were definately anti-Soviet and the ties to Western Europe (specifically the UK and the Netherlands), were still strong enough. More importantly, the USA was assisting the RSA with several projects (including giving covert assistance to the nuclear weapons programme as well as helping fund the extended range artillery projects being developed by such people as Canadian Gerald Bull - who the Israelis later had killed to stop his work on the Iraqi Super Gun, funny how the world turns - this extended range project resulted in the development of the G5 and G6 howitzers). The links to the US would have been used to get newer Western technology into RSA or even just additional equipment (such as say extra Buccaneer strike aircraft or newer maritime/ASW aircraft).

I think RSA would have been given any help that NATO could give, to assist in their attempts to keep southern Africa out of Soviet control. Pretty much every single opposition group in southern Africa was funded by Moscow or its clients. Money, weapons, training, vehicles, aircraft and personnel from communist countries was sent to all the major guerrilla groups.

In regards to apartheid, the South Africans who insisted that it be maintained would have harsh military/economic reality thrust into their faces and would have to accept that they were all one nation against the communist threat. As for the Soviets, I think as much as they would've liked to control that part of Africa, they would have had to leave its "liberation" in the hands of the Cubans, Czechoslovaks etc. (and East Germans if Version 1 timeline). However, I don't WarPac itself would have been able to commit much more than funding and equipment to any conflict there and would have had to rely on whatever troops it already had in place to "ensure the liberation" (the locals would have been just as happy fighting each other if the Europeans left, we humans do love to fight each other one way or another)

Cheers,
Kevin

ReHerakhte





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DeaconR


Hm...interesting regarding Africa. I'd agree with Kevin and add that the South Africans might take the opportunity to strengthen their power if possible in the region. Like the way that Switzerland and Israel are depicted as being in TW2000 I'm picturing a South Africa that is challenged but is a strong power in the area. However I don't entirely agree about the issue of unity; I think it would depend on what kind of timeline was being used and what other pressures on the country existed. Apart from the white/native problem there are also the sad but usual inter-tribal rivalries for political control. The Xhosa and Zulu for instance have a long history of violence.


DeaconR

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ReHerakhte

Hey don't get me wrong, I don't believe for an instant that any union in South Africa would be a happy one but I do think that if necessary, the government might relax its apartheid policies to further the war effort but it would ruthlessly enforce those policies that assisted the war effort and if that meant white supremacists had to work with black Africans... I see the government using all its police powers to "ensure" everyone works towards the good of the nation. If it meant further expansion of apartheid policies, they'd do it. They already considered themselves to be in a fight for survival of white South Africa against the communist backed guerrillas and they saw first-hand what happened to Rhodesia**

The RSA government had become quite adept at playing one tribal group off against another and they also had a few tribal groups under their sway who were happy to assist the whites, sadly because it put them in a position of supremacy over other black tribal groups some of the time. My personal opinion about South Africa is that very few groups can claim any innocence but that's probably better discussed in a different thread. To get back on track...
The South Africans were manufacturing their own armoured and soft-skin vehicles, smallarms, smallarms and other ammo as well as ammo for RPG-7 & SA-7 launchers and 23mm ZSU-23-2 AAGs (all of which they had quite a number thanks to captures from guerrilla groups, so much so that they became standard issue). They were also adapting captured enemy vehicles of WarPac/Soviet origin to their own uses.

The were also getting very proficient in the design and building of electronics and missile systems (albeit with the help of the Israelis) so that they were building their own anti-tank and air-to-air missiles.
Athough working on an indigenous attack helicopter and doing a refurbishment of the Puma helos that almost constituted a rebuild, they only ever had a modest aicraft industry that typically produced light aircraft. They relied heavily on the West for most aircraft. Although they produced the Cheetah jet fighter it is essentially a rebuild of the Mirage III and was heavily assisted by Israel. Another critical area was naval vessels, for which they also relied on the West.
Also, the South Africans were amongst the first to adopt a turbine engine on the venerable DC-3, something they carried out themselves IIRC.

Generally, the South Africans didn't need to have the most technically advanced gear as the gear used against them was typically mishandled by its operators. They wouldn't need to have Challenger or Abrams tanks or F-15s because the threat wouldn't quite rate it. I can imagine Great Britain sending surplus Canberra bombers and Buccaneer strike aircraft to the SAAF and perhaps the US sending M48/M60 tanks and older block F-16s (to boost the SAAF force of Mirage air superiority fighters) but I think the greatest area of support by NATO for the RSA would be in the areas of strategic metals, critical spares and probably food, fuel and ammunition.

** I saw in a newspaper report today about the continuing problems with Zimbabwe's economy and how it had been in decline for some time, in fact it had been in decline, according to the report, ever since Zimbabwe gained it's independence from Great Britain... funny, I always thought that Zimbabwe "gained it's independence" from Rhodesia... still, research costs money and the newspapers know that most people are ignorant of history these days and would never think to check out the "facts".
-- Just my own little gripe about the so-called information/media services we have today. --

Cheers,
Kevin


ReHerakhte

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DeaconR


It would be interesting, nevertheless, to come up with some more concrete ideas for S. Africa and possibly other African countries too. I'm quite interested in what would happen with the Horn and with West Africa in particular.

Kevin: I get what you're saying more clearly, and I generally agree. And you are right, South Africa would possibly uniquely be able to re-equip itself, maintain equipment and lines of communication et al. I think that the scenario might be somewhat equivalent to that depicted in "On the Beach" with perhaps the more high maintenance stuff not up to scratch but society generally functioning and chains of command still working well. There would probably be a lot of tension on the political side and some concern about what comes after I imagine.


DeaconR

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chico20854

Kevin-

Great stuff!

Given the threat against them (T-55s and T-34s, MiG-21s and 23s, ZU-23-2), S. Africa would be a logical place to send some of the older Western weapons systems that wouldn't be much use against WP forces. I'm thinking of Hawker Hunters (which Singapore and Switzerland retired in the early 90s), Centurions coming out of the Danish and Dutch(?) armies (along with upgraded Super Centurions from Israel, detailed in the RDF Sourcebook), the Boeing Skyfox (see Boeing Skyfox and http://www.highgallery.com/military-aircraft-skyfox.html and some more turbo C-47s and older model C-130s.

As for strategic minerals, well, South Africa was the West's major source of them. One reason the West didn't push the apartheid regime any harder during the Cold War. (and to stay non-political, I'll just leave it at that!).


chico20854


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boogiedowndonovan

I'm with you guys, South Africa sides with NATO. Aside from the reasons already mentioned, sub Saharan Africa is rich in minerals and ores. Both NATO and Warsaw Pact would try and make sure as much of these resources are on their side. Nigeria, Angola and other nations also have oil.

Also in T2k, the Cubans are back in Angola (Gateway to the Spanish Main)


boogiedowndonovan

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Matt Wiser

Didn't Sir John Hackett in one of his TWW books put a USMC brigade and a carrier battle group in Cape Town? ISTR that (I'd have to dig thru a box or two of books to verify).


Matt Wiser


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antimedic

I think it was his first book.


antimedic

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ReHerakhte
Foolish Mortal

DOH!
Looking back over the posts, I see I wrote strategic metals when I meant strategic materials

Cheers,
Kevin

ReHerakhte


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Raellus

With the Soviet Union/Russia engaged in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, their ability to stabilize their African satelites would diminish. Furthermore, with the resources of the major Western powers stretched to the limit, the government aid and private investment that many African nations depend upon would dry up. All of this contributes to a recipe for widespread political meltdown in throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. With African central governments collapsing, local tribal rivalries would likely flare up. I see widespread chaos and violence. Africa in a T2K world would make Poland look like Disneyworld.

I'm sure that South Africa would be plenty busy dealing with internal and border security issues to be able to support major offensive operations with the aim of territorial expansion. An apartheid era SA might be able to support such ops for short periods until the military became overstretched. Interracial trouble at home would be a major distraction at the very least.


Raellus


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ReHerakhte

Does this take in to account the large Cuban military presence in the southern African region?

ReHerakhte


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Raellus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ReHerakhte
Does this take in to account the large Cuban military presence in the southern African region?



No. I guess not. But now that I think about it, I still thing my prognosis is pretty valid. SA would be capable of conducting a large scale campaign against the Cubans, no doubt. I just don't see them being capable of any kind of war of territorial expansion as suggested by others in this thread (sorry guys). SA itself is just too politically and socially unstable to sustain the pursuit of that sort of strategic objective. Throw in global disruptions caused by WWIII, and this problem becomes even more difficult to control/contain (with the addition of widespread economic and trade disruptions). As for the Cubans, by the time the war enters it's advanced tactical nuclear exchange phase, I'd imagine that they would find themselves stranded. They'd have their own "your on your own" situation to deal with. Would make for an interesting OFFOR campaign.
__________________
"This one goes to 11." -Nigel Tufnel


Raellus

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DeaconR ,274


Actually I didn't mean territorial expansion as in conquering Mozambique or something like that. I meant that they would probably make good any border disputes and possibly outright move troops into areas that could act as a buffer zone. France after all is depicted as having done this in the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg.

DeaconR

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Raellus

OK, then we agree. Sorry that I misunderstood.


Raellus

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ReHerakhte

You know, after Raellus added his points, I got to wondering about the Cubans in the area. They have a fairly well equipped force with Cuban pilots flying fixed- and rotary-winged support, they have medical teams and limited logistics as well as limited armour.

I have the feeling that once the world gets knocked about by nukes, they would probably withdraw from fighting and try to get home, or they might very well decide that South Africa is the best bet for civilization in the area and make some approach towards reconciliation with the RSA with a view to possibly joining (or at least staying ong enough to organize transport back to Cuba).

From what I remember, a lot of the CUban conscripts who fought in Africa weren't very keen to be there and felt less keen the longer they stayed. Cuba certainly wouldn't have the resources to immediately evacuate these personnel seeing how they are so heavily involved in their own immediate region.

Going along with Raellus' comments about them being stranded, I think they might start exercising some form of "democracy"... those who cling to the communist ideal will probably want to get back to Cuba to help out there, those who believe in the communist internationalist ideal might very well want to stay to help out their brothers & sisters in communism (whether the locals they're helping actually care about communism after Moscow stops paying the bills is another matter!) but those who are bitten by cynicism in regards to the Workers' Paradise might advocate getting the hell out of Dodge and integrating themselves with the only society that stands a chance of remaining stable, i.e. South Africa

As pointed out, South Africa is going to have a hell of a time looking after itself but it stands a much better chance of weathering the aftermath than any of the nations around it.

Just some random ponderings over breakfast this morning!
Cheers,
Kevin

ReHerakhte

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Matt Wiser

No doubt the South African govt. would've offered the USN and other NATO navies basing rights-Simonstown, Durban, etc. Ships on convoy duty and antiraider ops would be able to come in, refuel, get some shore liberty, and then go back out. Not to mention intelligence-sharing about Soviet raider and sub activities, and occasionally making a raider's supply ship disappear. And the P-3s would have additional basing in the South Atlantic besides Ascension Island.


Matt Wiser

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Raellus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Wiser
No doubt the South African govt. would've offered the USN and other NATO navies basing rights-Simonstown, Durban, etc. Ships on convoy duty and antiraider ops would be able to come in, refuel, get some shore liberty, and then go back out. Not to mention intelligence-sharing about Soviet raider and sub activities, and occasionally making a raider's supply ship disappear. And the P-3s would have additional basing in the South Atlantic besides Ascension Island.

As such, wouldn't the Russians even the playing field by launching a cruise missile with a nuclear warhead from a submarine at the major port facility on the Cape? I don't know what canon says, but that would seem to be a pretty strategic target being as it effectively controls the passage between the Atlantic and the Indian oceans. The Ruskies would definitely want freedom of movement through there, don't you think?


Raellus

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Matt Wiser

Depending on how many Oscars and Yankee conversions are still around. The South Atlantic would be a NATO lake, basically, given Ascension Island, port access at Simonstown, and Brazil likely siding with the U.S. in at least keeping the sea lanes open. Some of the Latin American Navies are good at ASW, since their neighbors all have diesel-electric boats that are very hard to detect. I'd guess that if a Soviet sub sank a Brazilian freighter or two, Basing suddenly becomes available to the USN in Brazil. Whether or not the Soviet Navy Fleet Staff wants to risk a boat on such a mission to close down Simonstown for good is another question. Whether or not a SSN like an
Akula or Sierra would have the appropriate targeting info for a tube-launched SS-N-21 is another question-anyone know how those missiles were targeted? (i.e. inertial or a TERCOM-type guidance system) Ivan has plenty on his plate by this time, though.


Matt Wiser

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Matt Wiser

South Africa is also a potential source of supply for the 173rd Airborne Brigade and the other elements of JTF-Kenya. Things like ammo, maybe some Rooikat armored vehicles, spares for the Kenyan AF's Pumas, etc.

Matt Wiser

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ReHerakhte

Don't forget too that the South Africans started their programme for an indigenous attack helicopter in 1986 and had produced the Rooivalk attack helo by 1990. The first operational models were purchased by the SAAF in 1993 and the only reason they didn't start to get more until the late 1990s was due to budget restrictions bought about by the end of the Cold War.

They also operated 16 French made Super Frelon transports and although these were withdrawn from service in the late 1980s/early 1990s, by the time of the Twilight War, they probably would not have been disposed of (so therefore could be put back into service - they were withdrawn as part of budget cuts after the "Peace Dividend" from the end of the Cold War, so whether they ever would have been withdrawn from service in the first place in Twilight history is debatable).

So you could have some interesting mixes of equipment floating around with NATO and NATO-allied nations in the region!

Cheers,
Kevin

ReHerakhte


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Jason Weiser

Some points,
The SADF has four major Soviet anchorages in their potential AO. Beira and Maputo in Mozambique, Luanda in Angola and Diego Suarez in Madagascar (though that one might be a bit out there).

The problem is, what assets can the SADF allocate to put some hurt on these places? They're going to be sending weapons and advisers in job lots to support RENAMO and UNITA (I could see UNITA really putting the hurt on the Cubans with the SADF in support, they did so in the past, but this time, anything the Cubans lose isn't going to be replaced that easily). If you want to do a "stranger in a strange land" campaign with the Cubans, you could probably start as early as mid-1997. And, if NATO assets begin to use SA airfields and ports, this is going to complicate things for Cuba. She wants to support her fraternal allies, but if she starts to get too frisky vis a vis South Africa, she risks being pulled into the war, something the Cubans do not want.

Jason Weiser

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DeaconR ,274


Hm...the Cubans will probably be in the position of a lot of forces that are overseas. They'll probably be kind of stuck where they are. I'm imagining that things would be like they are most places by 1999, with the Cuban and SADF units mostly being involved with small unit tactics and overall concerned with gathering resources. However it could be a very interesting campaign set in that kind of area. I'd be interested to see this and other African campaigns put together.


DeaconR

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chico20854

The SADF had some pretty good strike capability to put a hurt on those Soviet anchorages. They were the only foreign user of the Buccaneer, and had 5 operable when retired in 1991 (due to the end of the Cold War). With some aid from Britain, maybe they could get more back in service and reach out to those anchorages. Probably better to have the SADF do it unaided and not risk incurring a Soviet nuc strike that would come from hosting US or NATO air forces to carry out the strike.

But I think Gateway to the Spanish Main gives a good impession of the Cuban position in Angola... desperate to get home, just as tired of the war as the rest of the world, and scared that even at this late stage something may be done to provoke an American attack on Cuba.

[Olefin]

I had the South African's getting involved in the Twiilght War directly because of the Soviet's policy of hitting neutrals that could support the US with either ports or oil - and having a very pissed off South Africa then use its nukes (which given the political environment of the Soviets holding together they most likely wouldnt have gotten rid of) on Mabuto and Angola's capital and then joining the war as a US ally as a direct result of the Soviet strikes.

The nuke strikes in Angola gut the Cuban air power there - and as a direct result the South African's win leading to the Cuban evacuation you see in Gateway to the Spanish Main