US Vehicle Prices in Germany after OpOmega

[kalos72]

What do you folks feel would happen to the listed prices of US military vehicles that have been left in Germany after Operation Omega?

Reason: Trying to determine if the values change when offering diesel fuel at $50 per liter in exchange.

Would a HMMWV still cost $20k or would the German government be persuaded to give them at discount if in trade for diesel fuel? Or would a UH-60 still cost $22.5M considering its limited usefulness and lack of proper support available.

Any change in fuel prices over whats listed in canon? I would think it would get more expensive as time goes on for countries that cant produce its own...

[Targan]

Really interesting question. Supply and demand would suggest that prices go down but I guess the answer would be more complicated than that. I look forward to reading others' thoughts on this.

[jester]

I would say that prices for US vehicles would fall. But, like aircraft, eh, they would be garbage having been left fallow for a couple years, stripped as parts were needed elsewhere, and a lack of routine maintenance. Coupled with the idea of "If I can't have it, then no one can." so troops may even sabotage it for nothing more than spite.

As for fuel, that would be a comodity that would still be in demand that its cost would remain stable, unless, some of the oil platforms in the north sea were brought online which may reduce the cost of fuel. But, still the need of fuel may outstrip the need. After all, The British Isles, Scandinavia and large portions of Western Europe would be needing the fuel for agriculture and production as well as for military assets. And I can assume half would got to military and the other half going ot the other needs....all of which would be deemed essentail.

[Legbreaker]

Prices on US vehicles and equipment would change no more, or no less than any other nationality. A tank that works, is still a tank no matter where it came from (admittedly there's a difference in quality, but that's already addressed in the base prices).

Oil products, particularly fuel and lubricants are likely to increase in value as time goes by, whether or not significant numbers of US units remain. With world wide production at near zero, and vehicles needing lubrication regardless what they're actually burning, demand will continue while supply will become (if its not already) more and more scarce.

The same goes for ammunition and other consumables. Sure small calibre ammo will be able to be produced on a limited scale (reloading), but missiles, artillery shells, etc are near impossible to make without industry. Prices for these will continue to climb for years to come.

[kalos72]

Some good points there...

My thinking was that any government would rather have 20 of their own vehicles up and running with diesel then 100 of ours with no fuel.

Plus I figured that, in the case of Germany anyways, there are only so many APC/IFV's they can use considering the smaller sized military to begin with. Plus how much true fighting will there be anyways?

Also, I figured that if you offered to buy back American vehicles say in very early spring, just before planting, it would be a more temping offer.

[pmulcahy11b]

The list prices of anything in T2K is merely a base -- it's like a pawn shop, nothing is final. It's all relative to the place and utility of the item.

[Webstral]

The list price of major end items, such as AFV, is a way of talking about value that is hard to equate to actual price. It’s hard to imagine players ever buying a tank, per se. The closest I can imagine to the actual marketing of a tank is players selling a working AFV to one of the Polish governments, like Krakow or the Margravy of Silesia. I suppose one can imagine salvaged vehicles being sold, too.

In any event, while there will be a relative glut of American fighting vehicles in the FRG following the departure of the OMEGA fleet, someone is going to own these vehicles—principally the Bundeswehr, but also some other groups. They are unlikely to sell these to player characters. It’s possible that the Germans might sell or swap some hardware to the British Army of the Rhine to facilitate the return of the BOAR to England (and thus the establishment of a pro-German government in the UK). However, the prices may or may not have any relation to the list price for character generation.

I suppose that a bandit group or folks doing salvage might offer American AFV to the Bundeswehr. The sudden (and very relative) abundance of American AFV might drive down the “price� (in kind, forgiveness of crimes, recognition of standing, etc.) the Bundeswehr is willing to pay. In this case, I suppose price has a value—provided the players have something they are interesting in selling. I still can’t imagine that the Bundeswehr is going to be willing to sell an AFV to player characters. The sale almost certainly has to go the other way.

Webstral

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Webstral

I suppose that a bandit group or folks doing salvage might offer American AFV to the Bundeswehr. The sudden (and very relative) abundance of American AFV might drive down the “price� (in kind, forgiveness of crimes, recognition of standing, etc.) the Bundeswehr is willing to pay. In this case, I suppose price has a value—provided the players have something they are interesting in selling. I still can’t imagine that the Bundeswehr is going to be willing to sell an AFV to player characters. The sale almost certainly has to go the other way.

I wonder if the relative value might go up, actually. Pre-Omega, an American AFV isn't terribly useful to the Bundeswehr-- after all, it would be their only one. (Of course, they could trade it to a Yankee unit somewhere nearby.) But after Nov 00, they will now have dozens of M1's, etc., so another one is possibly something they could either assign to a designated unit or strip for parts.
OTOH, to an American group that stayed behind, the value of something they could support to strip could be even higher.

[kalos72]

But without fuel to operate them, or the training on the operation/support, wouldnt they prefer to get there own vehicles working and operating first?

Much less things like ammo and such for the different weapons...

Then we have the question, wouldnt 100,000 litres of diesel be more important to them rebuilding then a couple tanks or a dozen APC's considering the relative lack of actual combat at this stage?

[Legbreaker]

An AFV is valuable with or without fuel - just look at what's been done in Krakow.

If the unit can keep these unfueled machines maintained, they're in a very good position to move to the offense very quickly should a fuel supply be obtained. Give them enough time and they can distill alcohol to run their vehicles on. It may not get them far, but alcohol was what the German 3rd Army (including the US XI Corps which the 5th ID was a part of) ran on in their 2000 offensive (30,000 troops, over 185 tanks plus unknown numbers of other AFVs and softskins).

It is my believe that there is an oversupply of vehicle crews in most units. Vehicles can be damaged beyond use or abandonned for a variety of reasons while crew heal from injuries, walk away from their broken down vehicles, etc.
Just look at the SOV 10th TD for an example - only 300 men strong, most of those numbers are specialists and only lack the vehicles and heavy equipment they need to become very effective once more. I'm sure many other units would be in similar positions.

[kalos72]

Another question then, what would the German Army do with a few hundred US MBT's, 400-500 APC/IFV's and a thousand other odds and ends?

If you look at the US Vehicle Guide or Going Home, you can see the MBT numbers get pretty damn big. Assuming the same ratio with the AFV's, thats ALOT of damn armor.

I just have a hard time thinking the German High Command wouldn't find a trade like the one I discuss favorable...

[Legbreaker]

One word.

Re-equip.

Remember that it was a condition by the Germans that they would hand over the contents of the supertanker in return for all vehicles and heavy equipment of the US military. Obviously they weren't as interested in the oil as they were in the equipment and supplies.

[HorseSoldier]

Like other people have suggested, I don't think there's any kind of market for vehicles in Y2K-ish Germany. Pretty sure the German authorities will feel well served to imminent domain and requisition any US military vehicles left in the country (which was their deal with USAREUR), and folks would be doing well to get any compensation at all.

[jester]

Another issue is, with all of the rogue units and marauders and would be warlords, would German government want alot of heavy armor and such left in private hands?

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

The same goes for ammunition and other consumables. Sure small calibre ammo will be able to be produced on a limited scale (reloading), but missiles, artillery shells, etc are near impossible to make without industry. Prices for these will continue to climb for years to come.

I agree with you leg but production of artillery shell, like simple rockets and mortar shell, should be possible (in cities like Krakow for exemple). It will be difficult but possible, nonetheless, at a very slow production rate. Therefore I agree with your analysis on prices. I agree even more when you add raw material shortage.

I just read something on shell production (150mm) in the concentration camp of falkensee in 1944 (sorry in French). They had two oven (a huge one and another) and two press (a large one and a small one). For information, within two month they only produced 400 shells. Too bad there is no more description.

It was done no doubt (in that case with a lot of sabotage from prisoners). Then, even without sabotage, 60% of the shells were to be thrown out. Another interesting thing will be the fact that such shell will have to be less advanced than modern one (interesting to know what reduction in range will result from this). I suspect it would be easier to make 100mm shell for T-55 than 120mm shell for M1A2 but I would like to have a confirmation on that.

[Gamer]

The trade of the heavy equipment for a tanker of crude oil means the German leadership understands they need this gear to help stabilize the country, they still have warsaw pact forces and maruders in Germany, they don't have a refinery in Germany that's operational nor will one be for quite some time.
The prices shouldn't change really as the prices are also dependant on the wear value of the vehicle and the heavy equipment left behind isn't going to be in very good shape anyway, but it will be enough to help make a difference.

There is also the issue of US units passing through the German units, those German units aren't going to like seeing all that heavy equipment passing through destined for the rear when they need it here and now and many may try to commandeer it and as the book says firefights between the US and German forces are become more common over that issue.

[kalos72]

Posts like the recent on regarding alcohol production kinda support my thought process the Germans would have now.

Yes they have all the American vehicles secured and there if they need them, much less away from the hands of local marauders and such. But they still need to be able to fuel their own vehicles.

Knowing they still have enemies lurking around and now have some added firepower, I think they would like to be able to utilize that firepower when its needed by receiving a stock of diesel.

Or even just to add to the agricultural output by using heavy equipment instead of everything being done by hand...

[kalos72]

One other thing that I think might be getting to people...

I dont mean to keep the vehicles in country, I plan on shipping them back to the US.

[Gamer]

No they shouldn't have "all" the vehicles, Going Home repeatedly states it's the heavy equipment that's getting left behind and unless they have changed that meaning in the last few years since I left service that means there is still a good number of vehicles coming home.

[kalos72]

Gamer - I interpret the OpOmega orders to include any "armor" and maybe some of the heavier engineering vehicles or prime movers.

[Gamer]

That's pretty much it.

[kalos72]

That leaves like something close 1000 MBT/APC/IFV's alone. Not to mention the various other heavy vehicles.

Surely the Germans could sell off 10% of that for diesel.

[Legbreaker]

Sell to who though?
And who's going to want to part with diesel, or any other oil based fuel or lubricant even if they do happen to have a little laying about?

[kalos72]

PC's needing armor and having diesel to trade...

So the consensus seems to be the value would either stay book value or higher for the vehicles.

I think diesel would double to close to $100 per liter in Germany come Spring 2001...

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Sell to who though?
And who's going to want to part with diesel, or any other oil based fuel or lubricant even if they do happen to have a little laying about?

That's always made me wonder -- why are there no book prices for transmission fluid, brake fluid, lubrication grease, etc.?

[Legbreaker]

Possibly because it's a detail the writers didn't bother with?

Any fuel picked up from PCs is going to amount to a few jerry cans here and there - not exactly enough to flood the market....

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by kalos72

That leaves like something close 1000 MBT/APC/IFV's alone. Not to mention the various other heavy vehicles.

Surely the Germans could sell off 10% of that for diesel.

I think Legbreaker is correct...to negotiate the purchase of even one APC PC's would need to have access to a huge amount of fuel...far more than they're ever likely to acquire imho.

Even then, let's assume the trade of a tank does go ahead...how do the Germans know that tank isn't going to be used against them at a later stage? Also, a point that I don't think has been mentioned is that as well as facing Warpac forces and marauders to the east, a swathe of Western German territory is occupied by Franco Belgian forces.

Sorry, I just can't see this sort of trading taking place...the Bundeswehr have a need for those vehicles and are going to want to keep them for their own use. It might take a while, but with big enough stills they can eventually brew up fuel to run them on - they can't brew up more main battle tanks.

[Webstral]

I, too, am with Legbreaker on this one. Although we might stretch our imaginations to figure out how one or two AFV get traded to some third party, the Germans need those vehicles desperately. Even if there isn't enough fuel to run the MBT or lubricants to properly maintain them, an MBT properly sited and dug in makes a wonderful bunker. With the Americans gone and the Brits planning to leave, the Germans are going to face some real manpower problems. Non-mobile MBT can cover a lot of the front, helping to consolidate manpower and operational fighting vehicles--or at least the ones for which the Germans have fuel.

Webstral