Thought of less covered arms exporter.

[Abbott Shaull]

Okay since we have touched on this.

What are some thoughts of some of the lesser known arms dealers such Brazil, South Africa, Singapore and number of host of other countries that weren't involved in the fighting directly, but still had been known to export weapon systems from time to time.

[Legbreaker]

Australia. Lithgow small arms factory has produced weapons for a very long time and supplied them to (at least) New Zealand and Indonesia. I think the latter would be out of the question in T2K although about Steyr AUGs were provided in the very early 90's (even before my unit got them).

[Webstral]

The fighting in the Far East in 1995 kicks off a race to stockpile arms and ammunition. China's voracious appetite leaves a shortage for many of the smaller players not immediately involved with the fighting. This leaves a large market for the second string players. I'd expect South Africa, Brazil, et al to have a surge in orders in 1995 lasting more-or-less through the Exchange.


Webstral

[Legbreaker]

I can see deliveries stopping cold the moment the banking network is taken out of action - nobody is going to produce a thing if they're not absolutely guaranteed payment.

[HorseSoldier]

With the Soviets still in business would China have enough market share to be missed much? Even the folks the PRC backed in Africa didn't get much by way of toys -- the Sovs tried badly to recreate the 3rd Shock Army while the Chinese tried with some better results to export Mao's 8th Route Army.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Some of the countries mentioned also had the ability to design & build aircraft, civvy & military vehicles and in some cases ships as well. However I would think that they would look to their own needs first and foremost because unless the export was to a country on your border, trying to ship anything further away would be too damned risky to be worth the return.

[Webstral]

Economics and politics are going to have as much to do with decisions regarding arms exports as perceived military needs. Exports generate hard currency. Domestic use generates government debt.

The absence of Chinese arms exports is an important factor in global demand, but more factors exist. Another important factor is anxiety about the direction the Sino-Soviet War will head. Countries around the world will ask themselves what the fighting in the Far East means to regional players affected by the Soviet and Chinese commitments, respectively. Pakistan, an important Chinese client, may well feel that the massive Chinese commitment of manpower and materiel in northeastern China may give India cause to reassess the risks and benefits of war with Pakistan. As the war drags on, Soviet clients in Africa will find that spare parts, ammunition, and technical expertise from the Soviet Union become harder to come by. Soviet clients in the Middle East will experience a similar phenomenon. In effect, the ability of Soviet clients to wage war will be affected detrimentally as the Sino-Soviet War drags on. Even if the various Soviet clients are not immediately handicapped by the departure of East Bloc technical experts and the cessation of imports of materiel, the various leaders may find that their willingness to invest their existing and perhaps irreplaceable stockpiles dimishes as the Sino-Soviet War drags on.

On the other hand, the foes of the Soviets and their clients may perceive the threat level to increase. As the flow of Soviet gear dries up and the technical experts are recalled, the Soviet clients may be more inclined to wage pre-emptive warfare (in the minds of the neighbors of the Soviet clients) in a use-it-or-lose-it modality. This thinking may inspire non-Soviet clients states to enhance readiness and accelerate armaments acquisition to ensure that no window of opportunity is perceived to be open. Naturally, the Soviet clients will be alarmed by such activity on the part of their neighbors. Are the neighbors getting ready to take advantage of the changed circumstances? All of this uncertainty will tend to lead to orders being placed with the available arms providers.

Since China will do her utmost to go into debt to the West to ensure that the West has a powerful vested interest in seeing the current regime in Beijing survives to pay the debt, the Western powers probably will have their hands full supplying China's needs througout late 1995 and 1996. This means that the regional players will have to turn to the second-string arms providers like Brazil, South Africa, and the like. Interestingly enough, this might result in countries like Brazil opening up assembly lines to produce spare parts for Soviet and Chinese arms in the hands of African and Middle Eastern customers. I think the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the course China pursues in becoming indebted to the West and how the orders for arms and ammunition are placed.

Webstral

[Legbreaker]

That's a very well thought out assessment of the early part of the war there and I wholeheartedly agree.

Once the hammer falls for the rest of the world, say mid 1997, exports from anywhere are likely to dry up, even though the demand will probably increase - a country on the loosing side of a conflict is going to be hard pressed to convince suppliers that it's still going to be around to pay the bills.

Once the banking and communications systems are destroyed (as EMP is sure to do in a heartbeat), even those who are apparently winning will have a hard time getting anyone to supply their needs. Payments could still be done, but it'd be a LOT harder to do and just communicating for negotiations, etc will take a lot longer. In some cases it all might just fall into the too hard basket.

Post 1997, when everything's basically gone to pot, unless a buyer shows up on the suppliers doorstep with payment in hand, it's extremely unlikely a deal will be done. With the destruction of the financial markets, you won't be seeing anyone offering credit....

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Post 1997, when everything's basically gone to pot, unless a buyer shows up on the suppliers doorstep with payment in hand, it's extremely unlikely a deal will be done. With the destruction of the financial markets, you won't be seeing anyone offering credit....

Yes I realize this. It one of those thing in the Warsaw adventure the Black Baron had sent an armed escort pick up some shells with his payment for them. It one of the things on the Free City Krakow leaves murky, because it does note that the Krakow Militia (8th Polish MRD), does provide armed escort for some goods as they travel from the city for bit toward their destination. So it would be interesting to which manufacturing would be willing to carry the burden of delivery and which wouldn't. As I remember they were also making many other goods for export in Krakow in the module too.

[Legbreaker]

My thoughts are that not many manufacturers would be willing to deal with delivery as well which may create an opening for specialist delivery "services". Buyer pays on delivery of course....