Israelis and Palestinians in the Twilight War

[John Farson]

Going by canon in the various versions, it seems that Israel survives the war pretty much intact (except for possibly a nuke strike on Ashdod, as one of the members' own timelines had).

If we go by the assumption that 95%+ of Egypt is killed when the Aswan Dam gets nuked, then that leaves Israel (and the Palestinians) more or less alone in a tough neighborhood. In the SW is a destroyed Egypt, a nuked Suez Canal (if we go with the assumption that the Russians nuked it to deny NATO) and a Sinai that's become a lawless wasteland and likely teeming with refugees trying to get to Israel. In the north is Lebanon and Syria, and in the east is Jordan, each of the three experiencing various degrees of unrest, warfare and possible nuclear strikes. And remember, at this time Israel would still be occupying Southern Lebanon.

So in the midst of all the chaos, what happens to the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank? Does Israel make some kind of truce with the PLO, Hamas and other organizations and shield the areas and their inhabitants from the surrounding chaos, kind of like in World War Z? Are the Palestinians reduced to a serf-like existence, bowing and scraping to the Israelis in exchange for IDF military protection? Or does it get darker, with the Israelis enacting their own "Trail of Tears", expelling all the Palestinians to the Sinai, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. Or - god forbid - genocide?!

Note: I understand the whole Israel-Palestine question is a touchy one on the net in general, and I'm certainly not advocating ethnic cleansing and/or genocide, just to let everyone know.

[headquarters]

Whatever your thoughts - keep it civil or just keep it to yourself if You Cannot. Try to remember that divisions run deep on this matter.

[WallShadow]

If you hold to the thought that 2300AD is the true descendant timeline following the Twilight War, then Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and Lebanon eventually bond together forming a 4-in-one nation-state, where each subdivision has a mutual coexistance. A less-darker fate than some mentioned above.

[Panther Al]

What I could see happening would be Jordan bowing to the reality of the situation (And bearing in mind Jordan is one of the few Arab states that sorta gets along with Israel for realpolitik reasons) and working with Israel to maintain some sense of normality - if for no other reason that to keep some access to the med.

Though normality by the regions standards.

I think that the Israeli government would want to keep things calm in the west bank, gaza, and southern lebanon. Its cheaper, and preserves resources. However: And this is a biiiiig but here: If the PLO, or any of the other governmental or terrorist organisation gets froggy, I don't see the IDF holding *anything* back in putting the threat down. In the midst of WW3, they know they don't have the time nor resources to put up with a long slow insurgency operations. It would be cheaper, in the long run, to go in very heavy, very fast, and very violent to put a very permanent end to it.

After all, when all the other powers are busy nuking each others cities, they can't wring their hands and bemoan anything Israel does. If they even bother noticing.

[Adm.Lee]

There's also the possibility that the various local powers see that the Big One is going on, and realize that no one is going to be selling them all the arms they would need to fight out their own war. The USSR, USA, and others won't be sending freighters full of tanks or aircraft parts when they need more than they can produce for themselves.

I'm certain some fighting would happen, but nothing on a big scale.

[Legbreaker]

With the rest of the world experiencing their own rather catastrophic situations, attention, and therefore any outside forces of restraint, will virtually disappear. The West Bank and Gaza would be depopulated, with the people expelled over the nearest border without regard for what they may face (desert, radiation, bandits, etc) - leaving these areas alone would mean tying up military resources just to keep the status quo, all while the occupants build strength and continue launching rockets, sabotage, etc, etc, etc.

It wouldn't be pretty, but without the world media paying attention, it will be fairly quick - I estimate as little as a few months if the Israeli's go all out and their neighbours are unable to do anything about it.

300 years later(a DAMN long time) in 2300, all may well be forgiven, or perhaps there's simmering unrest and hatred just below the surface? For examples look at relations between nations today and what they were back in 1700. France and Britain. Britain and Spain.
Or how about Japan and the USA just 50 years after WWII.

[HorseSoldier]

Keep in mind that in the T2K timeline, per RDF Sourcebook, the Israelis and Palestinians had reached some sort of rapprochement -- short version being that there was no 90's Intifada, and instead a brokered peace agreement, if I recall correctly.

Arab-Israeli tensions are low enough that the IDF has a small expeditionary force attached to CENTCOM per RDF SB also so that is a pretty big declaration that the T2K Arab Street is way, way different than our timeline.

What I could see happening would be Jordan bowing to the reality of the situation (And bearing in mind Jordan is one of the few Arab states that sorta gets along with Israel for realpolitik reasons) and working with Israel to maintain some sense of normality - if for no other reason that to keep some access to the med.

With Israel and Jordan apparently pretty intact and with IDF troops deployed to the east with CENTCOM, I think the two would also be working together to ensure they're getting their cut of the Middle Eastern oil coming out of the Gulf States -- Israel bringing it in via Jordan would be likely in a world where tankers and shipping in general are tight resources.

[John Farson]

Originally Posted by HorseSoldier

Keep in mind that in the T2K timeline, per RDF Sourcebook, the Israelis and Palestinians had reached some sort of rapprochement -- short version being that there was no 90's Intifada, and instead a brokered peace agreement, if I recall correctly.

Arab-Israeli tensions are low enough that the IDF has a small expeditionary force attached to CENTCOM per RDF SB also so that is a pretty big declaration that the T2K Arab Street is way, way different than our timeline.



With Israel and Jordan apparently pretty intact and with IDF troops deployed to the east with CENTCOM, I think the two would also be working together to ensure they're getting their cut of the Middle Eastern oil coming out of the Gulf States -- Israel bringing it in via Jordan would be likely in a world where tankers and shipping in general are tight resources.

Of course, one also has to keep in mind that when GDW first published T2k in 1984 they could not know that three years later the Intifadah would break out and last for six years until the Oslo Accords. In the alternate geopolitical situation as depicted in T2k and its first two versions, it's doubtful whether the Madrid Conference of 1991 and the 1993 Oslo Accords would take place, which in OTL largely contributed to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict being relegated to the back-burner until 2001. Without this process, things would be much more hostile between the two groups, with no Palestinian National Authority existing by the time the war broke out.

[mikeo80]

I agree with Panther Al. If you keep your head down, and don't bother any one, Israel will not care. If you start raising a rucus, the entire IDF will come down on your head...now...

Also something to remember. in both V.1 or V 2.2, Israel is not "supposed" to have any nukes of her own. I could see that if Syria/Iran/etc want to get REALLY cute....

The Israeli Air Force will teach them the error of their ways....

My $0.02

Mike

[Olefin]

Keep in mind that the most likely nuke targets in Egypt (as she would be a US ally) would be their refineries and their armored vehicle production facilities

[John Farson]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Keep in mind that the most likely nuke targets in Egypt (as she would be a US ally) would be their refineries and their armored vehicle production facilities

Yes, but just one nuke at Aswan is enough to cause a heck of a lot of damage by itself.

[Olefin]

depends on the time of year - with the lake behind it full and the Nile running full power when it floods and hitting the dam at that time of year - kiss Cairo and Alexandria goodbye

[Rainbow Six]

Personally, I was never that taken with the scenario put forward in the RDF Sourcebook. I preferred the scenario put forward by Harold Coyle in the novel "Sword Point" (I presume most here have read it, but for the benefit of any who haven't, the USSR invades Iran; the US RDF deploys to Iran but the Iranians see the US as invaders as well so all three end up at war with each other).

In particular I found the idea of Israeli troops deploying to Iran to be a bit far fetched, particulalry when you look at the efforts that the Allied Coalition went to on 1991 to stop Israel involving itself in Gulf War 1. Whilst the Arab Street the T2K designers had in mind may have been intended to be more moderate than its RL counterpart, I think that one was going a bit too far.

Also, another thing that springs to mind is that in previous discussions about France, several people have presented valid arguments why the Soviets would be likely to nuke the French. It strikes me that many of those arguments also apply to Israel. The Soviets would know that an Israel that is not nuked (or at least severely damaged) would have the potential to emerge as a post War Regional Superpower which would almost certainly have been allied with the US, so I think it's quite possible that Israel might have found itself targetted by some sort of Soviet nuclear strike, perhaps a limited one aimed at military production faciliies and such like. Obviously Israel (like France) has the ability to strike back if attacked, but consensus on France has generally always been that wouldn't save it from nuclear attack, so presumably same logic applies to Israel.

[James Langham]

The other place for an interesting solution that fits in fairly well with canon is Tom Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears" - I used odd bits (although not the Papal Guard).

[RN7]

I think the 2300AD timeline that sees the emergence of the Confederation of Palestine (a merger of Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinians) after the Twilight War is about as believable as Mexico annexing the entire US South West and the whole of Central America and most of the Spanish speaking islands in the Carribean, the creation of the Inca Republic and Azania, China splitting into three countries named Manchuria, Canton and Modern China, the Central Asian Republic forming out of a whole load of countries who don't get on and having a population of 1.3 billion people, and Tasmania and northern Queensland gaining their independence from Australia.

I can't see Israel surviving the twilight War without being attacked by Soviet nuclear weapons, but on the other hand I could still see Israel surviving a nuclear attack in fairly good shape as I would believe their military is well prepared for such an event. I'd say the level and extent of their self preservation approaches or exceeds Switzerland, and I would say they have hidden facilities that can repair or even produce parts and munitions. I doubt even the Pentagon knows exactly how many nuclear, chemical and biological weapons or delivery systems they have or were exactly they are all stored.

Its also bad news for any hostile Arab and Islamic militants and nation in the Middle East who wants to harm Israel, as without the Soviets to deter them or the Americans to restrain them the Israelis are going to roll them over.

[Raellus]

Might the Soviets try to use nuclear weapons on the Suez canal? I don't know much about the canal itself, and realize that nukes might not be able to close it completely, but I can see the Soviets wanting to stop or seriously hinder traffic through the canal and once nuclear weapons are in play, it might become a target.

[adimar]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Might the Soviets try to use nuclear weapons on the Suez canal? I don't know much about the canal itself, and realize that nukes might not be able to close it completely, but I can see the Soviets wanting to stop or seriously hinder traffic through the canal and once nuclear weapons are in play, it might become a target.

As far as I know, unlike the panama canal, The Suez doesn't depend on a lock system. So simply nuking it would not cause a terminal disruption. Maybe if the nuke was an especially dirty nuke than it would render the canal impassable dew to poisoning the crew. But other than that...

Adi