Airliner Shot Down over Ukraine

[raketenjagdpanzer]

The latest buzz is that the separatists are looting the crash site.

Stay classy, russians.

[kcdusk]

Malaysian Airlines was flying the route because it is the shortest, and therefore the cheapest. Maybe they shouldn't be flying over the Ukraine or any war zone, but if you put pins on a map of all the "war zones" how much safe flying space is left, and what kind of weird flight paths would be necessary to get from A to B?

I read (so take with a grain of salt) that airlines only fuel up enough to get to their destination (with small margin of error) to encourage pilots to do everything they can to save petrol.

Adding countermeasures would add cost, so airlines won't do that.

"Separatists looting the crash site" could mean a few different things in the real world. Is it locals stealing money from wallets (not a nice thought, but given how poor the villagers are it might be a once in a life time opportunity for a few dollars)? Is it people taking metal? Bodies (trophies, ransoms)?

[SionEwig]

Originally Posted by kcdusk

<SNIP>

"Separatists looting the crash site" could mean a few different things in the real world. Is it locals stealing money from wallets (not a nice thought, but given how poor the villagers are it might be a once in a life time opportunity for a few dollars)? Is it people taking metal? Bodies (trophies, ransoms)?

Credit cards. That area is very well known for credit card fraud. Plus possibilities of recovering data from peoples various electronic devices which would lead to more fraud.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Originally Posted by SionEwig

Credit cards. That area is very well known for credit card fraud. Plus possibilities of recovering data from peoples various electronic devices which would lead to more fraud.

There's a YT video of them going through some guy's luggage; they jack his binocs but throw them back because they're broken.

[pmulcahy11b]

Let's not forget the Russians have done this before. KAL anyone?

Russian soldiers are world-known for their propensity towards atrocities. Crimea, World Wars one and two, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Afghanistan.

[stormlion1]

Looting and what appears to be destroying evidence. Not that there is all that much evidence to begin with. Its pretty cut and dried a missile hit the plane. But what they are probably looking for is missile fragments with serial codes. The looting is a added bonus to the militants.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

If they wish to destroy evidence perhaps we could assist them with concentrated JDAM strikes.

[Askold]

Russians, Russians, Russians...

They. Are. UKRAINIANS! (Or from people's Republic of Donetsk as they call the area they now control)

If some Canadian guy steals a wallet do you start complaining about "those God damn yankees" then?

...I know that the separatists are backed up and armed by Russia but they are still mainly Ukrainians. It was Crimea where they got Russian passports and the area was annexed wether the locals wanted or not. Donetsk is trying to become a separate country.

(And the looting seems to be acts of individuals rather than organised and approved by the militia.)

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Originally Posted by Askold

Russians, Russians, Russians...

They. Are. UKRAINIANS!

Yes, I'm entirely certain there are no Spetznaz on the ground directing this. Yessir, not a one.

[Askold]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

Yes, I'm entirely certain there are no Spetznaz on the ground directing this. Yessir, not a one.

Oh, are you saying that the looters are Spetznaz or just that there are Spetznaz in Ukraine?

There were certainly Spetznaz at Crimea. That can be proven quite easily as the "volunteer troops who bought their weapons and gear from shops" had brand new 5.45mm Kalashnikovs with underslung grenade launcher that aren't for sale to civilians and there even were units which all had 2000€ optics on their guns. Not to mention that at least on one occasion Ukrainian troops captured "volunteer militia" members who were carrying their Russian military ID. ...Oops.

At Donetsk? If you have seen proof of Spetznaz then I am sure that several news agencies would be interested in seeing that. The separatists are mainly using gear that is either looted from Ukrainian military stores or the Russians were just smarter this time and issued older gear. The BUKs I think are the first military equipment that could be proven to have come from Russians. (And now there are already stories claiming that BUKs were seen being moved out of Donetsk and into Russia after downing the airplane.)

I have no doubts that Russians are backing up the separatists and many of the leaders, including the Igor Girkin / Igor Strelkov a former(?) FSB agent who first took credit for shooting the Malaysian plane, are Russians.

BUT most of the separatists seem to be Ukrainians even if they are pro-Russian Ukrainians. If there are Russian "advisors" or troops on the ground they are keeping a really low profile this time.

[kato13]

The one person I happen to know from the Donetsk region absolutely considers herself to be Russian and not Ukrainian. She is my friend's stepmother and you would not believe the amount of ridiculous propaganda that she gets from her former neighbors that I have to counter to my friend. Stories of the Kiev government moving Jews into camps, Ukrainians performing blood sacrifices of children, etc.

Yes it is a single data point, but some in the area very much consider themselves Russian, and I would assume those with that identification would certainly be more supportive of the separatists.

[schnickelfritz]

MSN is reporting that the Seperatists are using cranes to disturb/salvage/loot the crash site.

I'm a bit baffled that there are not airmobile or mechanized Ukrainian Army formations that cannot be sent to secure the site.

The pics of these thugs standing around and menacing the investigators was not shocking in that it was happening, but shocking in its audacity and scope. It seems to be a sharp stick in the eye of the international community and a raised middle finger for good measure.

Dave

[stormlion1]

The area in question isn't even near being under Ukrainian control and would take a dedicated effort and troops pulled from elsewhere to secure it. The Ukrainians are willing to benefit from the propaganda value of this, but that is as far as they can or are willing to go.

[unkated]

Originally Posted by Olefin

I dont agree with appeasing Russia for one big reason - its never worked in the past. With anyone. In fact appeasement has usually led to wars breaking out because of mis-calculations that the other side was too weak and that they wouldnt reply this time because they didnt all the other times.

Remember Hilter kicked off Big Mistake Number Two for the Germans on the assumption that he had gotten away with it by remilitarizing the Rhineland and the Saar, built submarines and battleships in defiance of the Versailles Treaty, taken over Czechoslovakia and Austria - so why should anyone mind if he settles accounts with Poland?

Oh, good. I'm not the only one who has noticed that Putin seems to be using Hitler's 1938 Playbook. It amused me in a horrifying way when Putin was accusing the Ukraine government of being Nazis, when his Russian government was the one most emulating the Nazis in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Olefin

And Russia has nuclear weapons - but frankly I dont think even Putin is stupid enough to actually do something that he knows will end with his homeland a radioactive wasteland in the cause of defending the right of his boyos to shoot down unarmed airliners.

<snip>

And its time we grew a set and actually had the guts to stand up to Putin because frankly if the British and French had done that in 1936 or 1938 we may not have had Europe look like a moonscape by 1945.

Or are we saying that any country that has atomic weapons can act like barbarians and we will let them get away with it?

Two points.

• In September 1938, at the time of the Sudentenland Crisis, Chamberlain met with the heads of the British military and asked if they were ready to fight a war with Germany. They told him no, they weren't, that they needed more time. With that knowledge, he went to Munich and appeased Germany. However, also in September 1938, the British military started calling up and training their army and RAF reserves, and factories started running around the clock.
  
• You always have the question with nuclear weapons how far you can push someone before they strike back. Could we threaten Putin with losing Moscow or Volgograd? Yes. Can he offer to trade it for Chicago or LA or Miami? Yes. Hmmm.

The shooting down of the Malaysia Air liner certainly ups the ante in eastern Ukraine. Is the United States (or France, Britain, German or the Netherlands) ready to send boots on the ground? I don't think so yet.

Uncle Ted

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Olefin, what do you suggest we do? And please be more specific than "stand up to Putin". Would you be willing to spark a war with Russia to resolve the situation in East Ukraine?

Answer: Yes i would be willing threaten to spark a war with Russia if possible to stop a much bigger war later on.

Our allies and friends have to know that the US will be willing to stand up for them as we said we would. Thats why Hitler got away with what he did - because in the end the French and British were paper tigers and let him build up and conquer to where he couldnt be stopped short of a general war.

And consider the fact that the Russians havent been brainwashed completely into a cult following like the North Koreans have - given the US standing up and saying enough is enough and be willign to back it up I highly doubt that the Russians will jump into a war to defend the right to shoot down civilian airliners because Putin's ego would be bruised otherwise.

For all his bluster and BS he isnt Stalin and the Russian military knows damn well what would happen if they went to war with the US. I dont see them ready to committ suicide for Donetsk.

We signed an agreement with the Ukraine where they gave up their nukes in exchange for promises from the US to prevent exactly what is going on with the Russians now. And I doubt the MRE's we have delivered have done much in the way of honoring that agreement

Oh and there are lots of ways the US could make Putin's life a living hell short of war - like arming the Ukranians, training their troops, all out economic warfare with the Russians, moving US forces into Poland and the Baltics and Slovakia that are bigger than the speed bump battalions that are there now, putting the missile shield into Poland and Czech Republic, stationing Aegis ships in the Baltic and Black Sea permanently, etc..

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Olefin

We signed an agreement with the Ukraine where they gave up their nukes in exchange for promises from the US to prevent exactly what is going on with the Russians now. And I doubt the MRE's we have delivered have done much in the way of honoring that agreement

Technically this was never submitted to the Senate and therefore never signed as a treaty. It is legally null and void.

This still floors me that the Ukrainians accepted this fact and still got rid of their nukes. Given it was politicians making the promises, it seem a bit like paying for insurance but never getting anything in writing in return. "We will cover you Trust us."

[Askold]

Originally Posted by kato13

Technically this was never submitted to the Senate and therefore never signed as a treaty. It is legally null and void.

This still floors me that the Ukrainians accepted this fact and still got rid of their nukes. Given it was politicians making the promises, it seem a bit like paying for insurance but never getting anything in writing in return. "We will cover you Trust us."

Or they just wanted to get rid of the nukes and perhaps did not believe that a war (with nuclear weapons) was likely.


http://yle.fi/uutiset/russia_demands.../7368805#susi1

Not saying that this is impossible, I'm sure we have some people who would like to have a "rematch" with Russians but all these claims from Russia and the Donetsk gang are getting crazier everyday.

[Adm.Lee]

An interesting take on this, going back to the Cold War: http://johncbeck.tumblr.com/post/920...lane-goes-down

This time, however, I am in agreement with many that it sure looks like the separatists did it, with a SAM they got from Russia, and the same separatists are muddying the evidence to deflect blame.

[Damocles]

Great Link Adm.Lee. It takes guts for someone to admit such a mistake. Quite a useful article for me professionally as well. Thank you!

[Adm.Lee]

These also seem relevant:

http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782

and:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._fighting.html

This last one, along with a biography of Putin I just finished last month, has me really suspicious about how long the current hostilities have been planned years in advance.

The first one can remind us that when a population has no outside sources of information, even a large population can fall for propaganda. And the latter one can show us a valid kind of propaganda, warming up the fear of/desire to fight against "fascist invaders".

[pmulcahy11b]

Does Putin actually want a war? They'd end up with a pyrrhic victory at best.

I like Sting's take on this: "It's such an ignorant thing to do, if the Russians love their children too."

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Does Putin actually want a war? They'd end up with a pyrrhic victory at best.

I like Sting's take on this: "It's such an ignorant thing to do, if the Russians love their children too."

No...not exactly a "full-blown war" in the old Cold War sense if you will, I think Putin is just applying the old Soviet playbook of war by proxy against the "evil Western Imperialists", much the same way we (the West, that is) played against the Soviets during the Cold War. Problem is, you have to be careful not to gamble too much when rolling the dice, which some are afraid Putin or some idiot is going to do at some point, which is not without historical precedence.

Putin's not stupid enough (I think anyway) to want an all out war, but he and his inner circle really do miss the glory days of the U.S.S.R. and they've also got a bit of a chip on their shoulder in regards to the U.S. for various reasons, real and imagined. So none of this is surprising, it's just a question of how much he thinks he can control the situation.

To whit, here's an interesting article from Daily Beast (no, I'm not a fan of the site, but the article is interesting, take it with a grain of salt of course):

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...le-defeat.html


Everyone knows the Pentagon has been watching this mess. Now it seems, the rumors are confirmed they are "dusting off the old books", according to this article, make of it what you will:

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/dempse...ry?id=24713043



And to top it all off...it seems Putin's decided he's riding the tiger now and he's not getting off:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...usaolp00000592

The Russians are transferring heavy artillery rocket launchers (Anyone know more about these or what model they might be, BM-9P140 Uragan perhaps?), and more APC's and MBT's to the separatists, and it seems they're building up Russian troops along the border, AGAIN.

[Askold]

Russian claim that an Ukrainian SU-25 shot down the plane is facing some problems. Mainly that an SU-25 cannot go higher than 7km (and that is without weapons. If armed the max altitude is 5km.) To combat this problem someone from Kremlin tried to edit the wikipedia pages of SU-25 to make it look like they could have flown to 10km.

http://gawker.com/did-russian-offici...gus-1609071757

Oops...