Twilight 2025

[ChalkLine]

Originally Posted by Ursus Maior

Christian, Judean and Judeo-Christian prophecies since Hellenism and especially in the first to second century CE as well as the medieval era are fascinating rabbit holes in general. Somewhere between TV shows like twilight zone and other absurd scifi or urban fantasy. I recommend a thorough read to everyone, especially aspiring authors of fantastic genres.

For a good reference work on Christian Millennialism during the pre-modern period I recommend "The Pursuit of the Millennium; Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages." Cohn, Norman. 1970, London.

[Raellus]

"Fears are growing that the Kremlin could at least be prepared to launch a new, large-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as early as January." (from the linked article)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-backed-forces

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[Raellus]

A correlation of military aviation assets on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...orces-stack-up

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[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Mahatatain

Moderators - would it be worth splitting this thread into two, one to discuss Putin's war and one for theoretical discussions about a Twilight 2025 setting?

Done. For discussion of the current conflict in Ukraine, please use:

https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=6627

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[swaghauler]

We can clearly see a pattern in modern warfare starting with the First Gulf War. In the digital age, we are seeing countries in conflict who lack sufficient material to fight a sustained war like we saw in WWII. From the India-pakistan conflict to the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we are seeing shortages in Tanks, Aircraft, and heavy weapons. Due to the complexity and cost of these systems, only a few examples of these weapons would be trickling out of the various defense plants.

In the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Russians had 1300 MBTs staged and may have less than 500 left after just 1 WEEK of fighting. The Ukrainian Army had 1500 MBTs and are down around the same strength. That a loss of over 100 tanks a day. This rate of loss would literally WIPE OUT the armored forces of 9 out of 10 Armed Forces on the planet. The losses in Aircraft are even more significant. Ukraine is down to about a dozen operational jets in a week.

Now you can see WHY I have always said that the next war will be a "come as you are" war.

[Raellus]

Might be a repost, but in case I didn't share back in 2016...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-of-the-future

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For those who have contemplated or run Twilight 20xx games set in 2025/2030, how will this attack on Ukraine inform your future campaigns? Will you gloss over the major issues Russia has had with wartime logistics or will those be incorporated in those settings?

[Jason]

Originally Posted by Spartan-117

For those who have contemplated or run Twilight 20xx games set in 2025/2030, how will this attack on Ukraine inform your future campaigns? Will you gloss over the major issues Russia has had with wartime logistics or will those be incorporated in those settings?

That is a tough one, considering things are changing on the ground every day, and many feel anxiety over nuclear sabre rattling.

However, the proliferation of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missles has obviously changed the battlefield; it looks like some Russian trucks may have been hit with Javelins,.suggesting the Ukrainian have large stocks.

Drones are a part of Ukrianian defenses, but that is something I know very little about. Recovering a downed enemy drone seems like a decent plot hook.

Cyber warfare is another area I just know very little about, but both sides in this conflict seem to have the capicity to launch attacks on one another.

Breached nuclear power plants could make parts of Europe unlivable. Ugh. Such plants could be targeted by conventional forces, which is a nightmare.

Fantasy scenarios (for now)

Russian Civil War.

Ukraine has a couple of nukes they secretly held back.

Full-scale proxy war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine/Baltic States. Maybe Merc; 2024?

Like I said, it is tough to imagine where this nightmare may lead.

[swaghauler]

A VERY GOOD video on Tradecraft in the modern age!

https://youtu.be/uAUcmweiQEw

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Spartan-117

For those who have contemplated or run Twilight 20xx games set in 2025/2030, how will this attack on Ukraine inform your future campaigns? Will you gloss over the major issues Russia has had with wartime logistics or will those be incorporated in those settings?

Hmmm. I don’t really know to be honest - i think current events open up a range of related questions, e.g. what effect any long term sanctions might have on future Russian military procurement. I imagine I’d try and incorporate as much as possible, maybe by positing some sort of ceasefire that ends up kicking the can a few years down the road, sanctions ease off a bit, the Russians rearm and things kick off again, possibly with the conventional period of the War shortened and things going nuclear more quickly if NATO steam rollers the Russians.

[Raellus]

One would definitely encounter this weapon in Ukraine in a 2025 scenario.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...cial-operators

And the Russians would probably be fielding larger numbers of these by 2025:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nian-officials

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[swaghauler]

I'm posting this here because Russia still has THOUSANDS of these.

https://youtu.be/5aNYPipsqOI

Swag

[swaghauler]

Peter Zeihan talks about The Changing Character Of War

https://youtu.be/l0CQsifJrMc





Swag

[.45cultist]

IRL Sweden and Finland maybe joining NATO offers possibilities for a campaign world.

[Raellus]

And the US Army will soon be rolling out it's first new standard-issue assault rifle in 65 years.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...w-squad-rifles

In 6.8mm no less!

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[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Raellus

And the US Army will soon be rolling out it's first new standard-issue assault rifle in 65 years.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...w-squad-rifles

In 6.8mm no less!

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Maybe. I'm not holding my breath. I remember the last two times they promised us new firearms.

[Vespers War]

For unit organization, this page has a good overview of how Russia's Battalion Tactical Groups are organized on paper. I suspect a lot of them add a third artillery battery. Msta-S and Grad should be most common, just based on existing numbers.

[mpipes]

When was the BTG concept adopted?

[Raellus]

It looks like Finland and Sweden are closer than ever to joining NATO. It'll be interesting (and potentially very scary) to see how this plays out.

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[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by mpipes

When was the BTG concept adopted?

The first Battalion Tactical Groups were formed in 2013. With just 1,000 men, they are on the "light" side in manning and I would compare their function with the US Calvary (both the Air Cav & Armored Cav) in that they reduce manning in the hope of increasing tactical maneuverability and flexibility. However, it now appears that BGTs do NOT have the tactical flexibility that we thought due to their inability to "shoot, move, and communicate" effectively. They also lack the troop density (Infantry) for urban warfare... just like US Cav units which "do more with less" by leveraging airpower and artillery to break up enemy troop concentrations.

I believe the BTG was adopted due to "manning issues" in the Russian Army. Because of their structure (no NCO corps to control the enlisted) they can only control units of a certain size effectively. In theory, by having a "combined arms unit" of 1,000 men, junior officers can just "dispatch" BTGs towards objectives without having to "micromanage" them in combat. In practice, the lack of training in the Russian Army makes the BTG ineffective.

[.45cultist]

Another thing with later war dates is the loss of networks and GPS, something likely to affect younger folk, if properly expressed in game.