On this day 25 years ago (Commentary Thread)

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I actually rewatched Threads a few months ago (it's currently on the BritBox streaming service). I think it's the first time I've watched it sine the original broadcast. I'd forgotten quite how bleak and harrowing it is.

The first time I watched it I was genuinely traumatised

[chico20854]

December 22, 1997

Dain Dangerous, Boston megapunk leader, seems rejuvenated somehow. In the midst of the riots, the strikes, and the civil unrest, his band Terminal Illness begins to give impromptu street performances, sometimes with only the most primitive sound equipment, sometimes without instruments at all. Dain's new music is the saga of what is occurring in Boston, and like all sagas, it has a moral - "Only the gangs will survive." When the first of the gasoline riots occurs, the megapunks decide to add a little looting and arson to the list of crimes. Strangely coincident, the buildings and homes that are burned belong to the old established leaders of the Boston area.

A dozen other cities in the UK have joined Leicester in declaring their independence and asserting local control over local security forces (usually some combination of Territorial Army, police, RAF and naval personnel, augmented by university and high school cadets and even minor police personnel).

Unofficially,

The eighth and final R-5D spy plane is completed in Palmdale, California. Elsewhere in the US, military production continues at a lower level at surviving facilities. Armored vehicle production continues in San Jose, California (Bradley and M113-series vehicles), York, Pennsylvania (M-109s and M-88s), Detroit, Michigan (M-1 tanks), Muskegon, Michigan (LAV-75s) as well as a handful of mobilization plants. In all cases production continues under backup generator power (or in a few cases, restored mains power) with widespread worker absenteeism and declining stocks of components. In many cases completed vehicles sit at the plants awaiting transportation to ports.

Army armored vehicle repair plants such as the Red River and Anniston Army Depots continue to repair combat damaged vehicles, again using backup generator power and, in many cases, POW labor for unskilled tasks.

In Alaska, the Soviet 25th Corps and US X Corps have gone to ground for the winter as temperatures in the Fairbanks area drop precipitously. Even though both forces are experienced cold-weather combatants, high temperatures in the -20 Fahrenheit range and near total collapse of logistical support force a cessation of offensive action from both sides.

The Belgian interior minister's plea for French assistance is passed to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Within hours the dialog has moved to the highest levels of the French and Belgian governments.

Back in the US, the evacuation of some intact urban and suburban areas is proceeding in an orderly manner. School busses follow their normal routes through residential areas, collecting people of all ages. Baggage is limited to 50 kg per person and pets must be left behind. The busses transport the relocatees (as they are dubbed by emergency planners) to the local high schools, where intercity busses load them for transfer to food producing areas. Citizens, if they have sufficient fuel, may self-evacuate in their own vehicles. As neighborhoods empty, local law enforcement notes who remains; initially no additional action is taken.

Rainbow Six reports that HMG converts the RAF research and development facility at RAF Boscombe Down to an operational air base, relocating a number of the RAF's surviving fighter aircraft, including the remaining Eurofighter Typhoons, to there.

A Soviet SS-19 missile is fired at southern England. MIRVs destroy the port and naval base at Southampton, and the port in Dover. A bus malfunction results in the three MIRVs targeted at the major Royal Navy base at Portsmouth tumbling into the Atlantic.

In a case of cutting edge aircraft neutralizing their counterparts, a R-5D Aurora drops a pair of B61 nuclear bombs on the Ramenskoye aircraft research and development center southest of Moscow.

Soviet missiles continue their destruction of the Canadian petroleum industry, raining destruction on Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The massive Danish containership Susan Mae, at anchor in New York's outer harbor, receives permission to anchor further offshore after the crew was robbed the prior day. It moves 20 miles further offshore.

In Iran, 2nd Brigade, 24th Infantry Division secures the town of Shushtar from rear guard elements of the 1st Guards Army, while the highly dispersed 82nd Airborne Division has largely exited the highlands of northwestern Iran into northern Kuzestan Peovince.

[chico20854]

December 23, 1997

POWs at a camp in Exmoor, England wake up to find their camp guards (largely civilians) have fled. Colonel Andrei Zvetayev, the ranking officer, takes stock of the situation and leads the men out of the camp.

The Typhoon-class submarine Barrikada receives what is to be its last launch orders, showering five more missiles on targets (unofficially) in Canada (Air Defense headquarters at North Bay, the Chalk River nuclear power plant and the industrial complex in Hamilton, Ontario), Mexico (the refinery at Ciudad Madero, which was missed in an attack on the 17th) and the US (SAC bases at Griffiss and Plattsburg, New York and Pease AFB, New Hampshire).

Unofficially,

The situation in the Chicago area contiunues to deteriorate a week after Soviet missiles struck targets along the eastern and southern edges of the region. Fires continue to burn their way westward, despite the cold temperatures and the heroic efforts of the fire departments. Rail traffic through the city has been halted as workers refuse to enter the danger zone, paralyzing one of America's largest transportation hubs. The troops of the 49th Armored Division, the primary force responsible for maintaining martial law, is woefully inadequate for the task, its 14,000-some soldiers and fleet of armored vehicles utterly incapable of maintaining power, water and food distribution to the millions of civilians in the area.

The 221st Military Police Brigade (US Army Reserve) embarks on several ships in Honolulu harbor, orderd to return to California to help maintain order there.

Pasdaran guerrillas in Esfahan assassinate a lone Soviet Major, who unwisely decided to take a late evening walk outside the garrison area. To their northwest, the 24th Infantry Division's advance patrols reach the outskirts of Dezful. To their east, the 14th Armored Cavalry Regiment (Light) secures the 24th's eastern flank with a drive northeast from Ramhormoz, keeping the Soviet 4th Army off-balance and unable to intervene to the west.

[chico20854]

December 24, 1997

Food riots begin in New York City as stockpiles of food dwindle. Whole armies of crazed people invade nearby neighborhoods, following rumors of secret stockpiles of food, water, or fuel, and the resultant slaughters leaves tens of thousands dead and dying in the streets. These rumors are sometimes true - a handful of dwellings - usually the upper floors of apartments and condominiums, and the penthouses of the very rich - had stocks of food before the attack. Some owners took what they could and fled. The majority are cleaned out by the owners to eat or trade with, and many are looted by hungry mobs or by street gangs. In many cases, however, the owners left their dwellings and fled or died... and stores of canned food and other valuables remain. Much of Harlem is ravaged by fires which raged through the district during the food riots, while the Columbia University security forces lead the defense of Morningside Heights from the fortifications above Morningside Park.

The Chinese suffer disproportionately during the riots. Largely ignored during the race riots of July 1997 (the Chinese, after all, were fighting the Russians), Chinatown is attacked and pillaged time and time again during the food riots. Hungry, raging mobs use the rationale that only "real Americans" have claim to the dwindling food supplies of Manhattan. Thousands of Chinese flee the island entirely, but thousands more die, murdered in the streets or killed when arsonist fires race uncontrolled through the shabby, crowded, substandard tenements which jammed the streets behind the shops and restaurants. The southern parts of the Bowery, much of TriBeCa and most of SoHo burn to the ground in the Chinatown fires as well. In the Lower East Side, the riots bring wholesale slaughter to the streets, particularly to older people who have been unwilling to flee to uncertain havens before the troubles began.

The inhabitants of Roosevelt Island take advantage of their natural isolation and the experience offered by one of their civic leaders, a retired Marine Corps officer, Colonel Randolph Phillips, to form a militia and maintain a semblance of order. The various hospitals on the island have large stocks of drugs and other items. Roosevelt Island's leaders, knowing the value of such supplies, see to it that several basement refrigerators are hooked up to alcohol-converted portable generators soon after the power went out. Here they store large supplies of gram positive, gram negative, and broad-spectrum antibiotics, saline, D5W and other IV fluids, anesthetics, morphine, and dozens of other drugs and supplies which are nearly impossible to find elsewhere in the city (or anywhere else in the country for that matter).

On Governors Island, the largest island in New York Harbor and the location of a military reservation named Fort Jay, the reservation is abandoned (the soldiers were more useful guarding critical buildings and intersections in Manhattan and Brooklyn than they were guarding the harbor from amphibious invasions).

Unofficially,

A secret meeting occurs between the Belgian Prime Minister and President of France. While nothing is announced to other members of their respective governments, let alone their publics, the idea of a Franco-Belgian Union is proposed by the French President, as a condition for substantial French aid to the badly damaged Belgium.

The container-barge carrier Sian Carrier is delivered in Quincy, Massachusetts to the US government. This is the last ship built in Quincy.

For the second year in a row, NORAD commanders are on watch for visitors from the North Pole that are not in a sleigh. Fortunately, none arrive.

Rainbow Six reports that local commanders order the withdrawal of all police and military personnel from Birmingham, effectively conceding control of the City to the mobs, many of whom have managed to arm themselves with weapons taken from the police or other troops who have been overrun.

NATO intelligence identifies a major grouping of Soviet and Polish forces, under command of the Baltic Front, massing in northwestern Poland opposite the reinforced II MEF. Commanders hastily order the diversion of the US V Corps, which has been pulled back from the front line in anticipation of redeployment to the German interior for reconstitution and to assist civil authorities, to the Szczecin bridgehead.

German territorial troops, mostly security forces and support units, in the areas west of the Rhine, try to manage the flow of refugees trying to reach the perceived safety of French and Belgian territory. The border is effectively closed by French military units but the stream of civilians continues.

The last Transatlantic convoy in the "normal" series, Convoy 314, arrives in the North Sea, carrying a vast array of spare parts, replacement vehicles, munitions, food and the vehicles of two of the medium transportation companies stood up in October. The G-4 (logistics officer) of US Army Europe has had time to carefully prepare for the use and distribution of this bonanza, aware both of the vast needs of his command and that this convoy is the last of the pre-exchange resupply. (Additional ad-hoc convoys will sail for Europe in 1998 and 1999, but this is the final one of 58 North Atlantic convoys organized by SACLANT since hostilities started in Norway in November 1996).

The 12th and 34th Air Armies, Transcaucasian Front's Frontal Aviation components, receive an influx of combat aircraft from other theaters as supplies of jet fuel in other regions dwindle. STAVKA has directed the transfer of a portion of combat-capable aircraft and their crews to the area where fuel is still somewhat plentiful and where Soviet airpower can make the greatest impact on the battlefield.

In the first of many clashes with loyalist forces, the 156th (my 190th) Motor-Rifle Division routs a patrol from the MVD's 52nd Specialized Motorized Regiment, a riot control unit sent from Novosibirsk to investigate the situation in the now-uncommunicative city of Barnaul.

[chico20854]

December 25, 1997

In Norway, as in most of the world, it is a grim Christmas. The nation's power generation and telecommunications facilities have been destroyed as electromagnetic pulse from the nuclear detonations fried their control circuitry. Refugees from the cities, seeking food and shelter from the coming winter, have flooded into the countryside. At first they are received with charity and kindness, but it soon becomes obvious that there are more mouths to be fed than there are meals left in most parts of the country. The only government is by martial law, and the only forces for civilization are the remnants of the Norwegian military. People turn to the military for their leadership and for their protection.

A provisional state capital is established at the planned community of Columbia, Maryland, on Route 29 between Baltimore and Washington, and fifteen kilometers from the nearest Fort Meade crater.

In Pennsylvania, the principal targets of the urban migrations are the broad, rich farming lands between Lancaster and Chambersburg, the heavily forested and remote regions of northern Pennsylvania beyond Scranton and Williamsport, and the fertile lands beyond the Allegheny Mountains, between Pittsburgh and Lake Erie. The broad strip of low, rolling, farming country between Allentown, Harrisburg, and the western suburbs of Philadelphia have been overrun by refugees since the first nuclear war scares earlier in the year. Because of continued fear that Pittsburgh itself will be hit by nuclear warheads, few refugees enter the city itself, and, in fact, many natives of the city fled either during the nuclear panics of the summer of '97, or during the riots, fires, and renewed fears of nuclear strikes of the present. In the disorder the indoor shopping mall in Monroeville (on the eastern outskirts of Pittsburgh) is repeatedly looted by vandals and rioting mobs, leaving little but the shell of the building complex.

Unofficially,

King Albert II of Belgium grants his consent to the formation of a Franco-Belgian Union and a full military mobilization to both control the flood of refugees into the nation and obtain French assistance in responding to the nuclear attacks on Antwerp. Likewise, the French President obtains the grudging consent of the opposition Socialist party, seeing no alternative and painfully aware of the consequences of taking a pro-Soviet position in the wake of Soviet attacks on the nation. (The French Communist Party's consent is not requested, many of its leaders in detention for pro-Soviet espionage).

Not respecting the sanctity of the (in their view) decadent and exploitative holiday, more Soviet bombs strike the UK, destroying industrial facilities in Coventry, Derby and Bedford and the harbor of Bristol.

V Corps units in northwestern Poland launch a spoiling attack on massing Soviet and Polish troops of the Baltic Front. A massive snowstorm offers concealment to the advancing M1s and Bradleys but confounding the close air support aircraft, many of whom's advanced avionics are inoperable. The initial Pact resistance is Polish infantry.

XVIII Airborne Corps troops surround the town of Dezful, which is defended by a grab bag of stragglers from a dozen Soviet divisions, support troops and pro-Soviet Tudeh guerrillas.

[Homer]

Poor Monroeville Mall can’t catch a break. Overrun by zombies in 1977; overrun by looters in 1997!

All kidding aside, I wonder how Pittsburgh ARS/ANGB get treated. In the 80s there was an ANG A-7 unit there that would have probably gone to Europe, an SAC gained ANG KC-135 unit, and a MAC gained AFRES C-130 unit. Plus some nice long runways, defensible terrain, and in place communications. Probably a good bomber dispersal field as well.

[chico20854]

December 26, 1996

When refugees begin arriving in rural areas, it is inevitable that they should inhabit the sprawling shantytowns and rural slums which came to be known as refugee cantonments. (The FEMA-constructed evacuation sites were long-since filled) They are not forced into the camps; it is a mark of human nature, however, that lost people seek out others like themselves, with the same backgrounds and troubles. Camps are erected on open fields near running water and sources of electricity. These grow as newcomers arrive, searching for other bands from near their homes. Many cantonments are even named after towns and cities left behind - Akron, Youngstown, Cleveland in Western Pennsylvania - though after a time, any given refugee comes simply to refer to his camp as "home" or "the camp," and most camps lose the distinguishing features which had given them some semblance of individuality. All of the camps are much the same: huts made of sheet tin or clapboard, plywood or cardboard, some little more than lean-tos. Food is scarce at first, almost impossible to find at last, as thousands, as tens of thousands die of hunger, disease, and exposure. Many have left their homes with nothing but the clothes on their backs, and a trek by foot across hundreds of kilometers has left many barefoot, sick, and poorly-clad.

While some in the surrounding communities are indifferent to the plight of the newcomers, the majority try to help.

Rains finally quench the last embers in the southern half of the city of Tampa, which had burned out of control for weeks. By this time the fires die out, Tampa has suffered over 800,000 casualties, some 160,000 of which were deaths.

In the chaos of post-strike Britain, a collection of minor nobles band together on this Boxing Day to establish a new monarchy. It is based on a prewar book (The Great Pretenders) which "proves" that the rightful heir to the throne is a man named Paul Poundstone-Tuedor. Poundstone-Tuedor claims to be descended from the offspring of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh (married in a secret ceremony), and thus rightful King of England. It begins gathering weapons and recruits to form a paramilitary arm, named the New Royalist Army, or NRA.

Unofficially,

In Trenton, New Jersey, a fire in a residential neighborhood destroys eight homes. It is started when a 62 year old man spills gasoline that he is siphoning from his lawn mower into his car in order to have enough fuel to evacuate. Once the fire starts there is no means to call the fire department, and water service is down as well. The fire is stopped only by a combination of cold weather and distance between houses.

The container-barge carrier Sian Carrier is delivered in Mobile, Alabama. It, like its sisters delivered in the prior weeks, is taken over by the US government.

The Soviet Union launches some its final attacks of the 1997 strategic nuclear exchange, hitting Luton, Gloucester, and Yeovil, England. Soviet nuclear attacks also continue in the Pacific with attacks on Sydney, Melbourne and Geelong, Australia and the city state of Singapore, whose industry and refineries are making valuable contributions to the war in the Far Eastern theater.

V Corps spoiling attack in northwest Poland continues, now encountering Soviet troops and armor. The Soviet tank regiments are equipped with an odd assortment of tanks, everything from top of the line T-86s to barely functioning T-55s dragged from storage in Siberian depots. II MEF assists V Corps by launching local attacks along its front line to tie down troops and prevent commanders from diverting reserves to face V Corps.

Transcaucasian Front attacks several refineries in the region to cut off CENTCOM's fuel supplies. A Su-24 is sacrificed on a one-way mission to hit the Sitra, Bahrain refinery while missiles hit the Saudi refineries at Rabigh and Jubail and the petroleum refining and transportation hub of Fujairah, UAE. In the medium term, the attacks will succeed in limiting CENTCOM's fuel supplies, but for now the strikes do nothing to arrest the Soviets' costly defeats on the battlefields of Iran.

In Iran, the defense of Dezful crumbles under American and Iranian assault. By nightfall the perimeter is less than 500m wide.

On the Korean front the war has gone largely static. The Soviet 30th and 35th Armies are starved of supplies after the destruction of Vladivostok and American tactical nuclear strikes on the supply lines from the USSR, added to the burden of supporting the suffering North Korean population, which had no opportunity to raise food in a year marred by intense fighting from one end of the country to the other. In South Korea the situation is nearly as grim - the local government is still intact and somewhat functional, but the growing collapse in the world transportation system and the burden of over a million Nortk Korean refugees after a year of fighting makes for a difficult winter.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by Homer

Poor Monroeville Mall can’t catch a break. Overrun by zombies in 1977; overrun by looters in 1997!

All kidding aside, I wonder how Pittsburgh ARS/ANGB get treated. In the 80s there was an ANG A-7 unit there that would have probably gone to Europe, an SAC gained ANG KC-135 unit, and a MAC gained AFRES C-130 unit. Plus some nice long runways, defensible terrain, and in place communications. Probably a good bomber dispersal field as well.

Monroeville Mall in the 90s was a reliable source of Camel cigarettes and Slim Fast diet shakes for me!

The ANG A-7 unit ended up in Jugoslavia until things began to fall apart there and they ran low on aircraft. I'll have to look at my notes for the other two units.

[Homer]

It’d be interesting to see the results if the folks wrecking monroeville and moving in from Ohio have a go at the airport. It’s on high ground with a pretty defined perimeter thanks to the layout of 376/376B and sits on the other side of the rivers from Monroeville, Pittsburgh, etc. There’s plenty of places to set up interlocking fields of fire for SPs or MPs with their relatively high scales of belt fed weapons, an internal road network for qrf and reserve movement, ample billeting (riding Armageddon in the Hyatt wouldn’t be that bad), and self contained power, etc. The downside is it’s a huge perimeter, you’ll have to deal with moon township by co-option or isolation, and you’ll need to be able to project power to interdict the river crossings which are set well out. Probably not enough troops to manage all that. Probably gets abandoned eventually for lack of forces and military value as the situation deteriorates.

Another airfield in PA that may be in a similar predicament is Harrisburg IAP. It’s got long runways, a pre-war ANG presence with comms and support facilities (Commando Solo EC-130s), sees a lot of traffic from 89th MAW aircraft doing training, is convenient to a few COG/COOP sites, and has water on half its perimeter. In T2K it probably benefits from a generally larger presence of security forces at NSA Mechanicsburg, New Cumberland Army Depot, and the redeployment of any remaining PA ARNG forces from Indiantown Gap. Unfortunately it abuts two urban areas, is overlooked by high ground, is on the wrong bank of the river for use as a barrier to foot movement, and is right off 283 and the PA turnpike bringing the hordes from Philly via Lancaster and reading. It’d be a little easier to crack than Pittsburgh IAP.

[chico20854]

December 27, 1997

Prince Jungi of Trondheim is crowned King Haakon VIII of Norway.

In Boston, a rash of shootings and robberies prompts Carlucci to organize a private army to ensure the protection of the UBF warehouses. With the help of Vietnam combat veteran and longtime friend Captain Thomas R. Holmes, Carlucci begins organizing the UBF Marines. Holmes, director of Carlucci's A1 Security Guard and Courier Service, is convinced that complete civil collapse is at hand. Carlucci's avowed goal of preserving law and order appeals to Holmes and is quoted regularly during recruiting drives. The UBF's policy of never asking where you came from or who you were, together with the prospect of regular meals, appeals to large numbers of young men. Lavish funding, diverted from the UBF treasury, and a substantial stockpile of loot from Carlucci's black market operations provide ample equipment for the UBF forces.

During the riots in the UK, the Red Devils (the hooligan element of the Manchester United Football Club’s supporters) are feared for their casual use of violence. When martial law is declared, the army begins shooting them on sight, so they leave Manchester.

Unofficially,

French and Belgian military planners meet in the former NATO headquarters outside Brussels to determine a solution to the shared refugee crisis. Both nations, with food, fuel and electricity rationed, have filled every hotel and hostel bed, holiday camp and excess military barracks with refugees from the fighting in Central Europe.

In northwestern Poland, V Corps drive begins to waver as supplies run low. The corps' artillery brigades can fire off over a thousand rounds a day, yet the available supply for the day is less than 200. Fuel is also running low, and the corps pushes forward using the remaining fuel in its armored vehicles' tanks.

RainbowSix adds the strands that held UK society together are unraveling with ever increasing swiftness, and as the year draws to a close the outlook for many is bleak. In many areas the rule of law has collapsed. The Government has lost control of much of the West Midlands and large parts of Manchester are under a dusk to dawn curfew, with violators risking being shot on sight by the Army. With the situation at home rapidly deteriorating, two Territorial Battalions have to be brought back from Germany to help enforce order. In addition to more standard measures police officers evacuating the Sizewell Nuclear Power Station leave a number of signs warning that the site is heavily radioactive, even though it is not, in fact, radioactive. The Army has stripped the Ministry of Defence site at Donnington, which was one of the largest military stores in Western Europe, of virtually anything useful. The Sellafield nuclear reprocessing site, which was built to reprocess spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive waste products, is safely shut down

The Soviet defense of Dezful is down to just six buildings in the city center; the commander of the 24th Infantry Division details two battalions (one American and the IPA 56th Independent Infantry Battalion) to contain the Soviets while the division support command and engineer regiment clear lines of communications through and around liverated areas of the city.

[chico20854]

I'm having tech issues while out of town. I'll resume posting next week. That gives me some more time to think about the Franco-Belgian invasion and double check the canon nuclear target list as well.

[pmulcahy11b]

Why was SHAPE missed in the targeting?

[Homer]

I always wondered how most of military infrastructure and support base managed to evaporate in a little under three years of broken backed warfare. Parts of Western Europe and Korea circa late 80s early 90s were almost carpeted with US combat support, combat service support, and headquarters units and installations. There’d be personnel losses due to the conflict, stripping of units for replacements, and physical destruction of facilities but you’d have to have something left to support the fight. One of the best parts about Chico’s work is the attention he’s paying to the supporting and sustaining elements of each side.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Why was SHAPE missed in the targeting?

What is SHAPE?

[kato13]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

What is SHAPE?

Supreme_Headquarters_Allied_Powers_Europe

[Homer]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

What is SHAPE?

It sits in Soignes, Belgium. Used to be Cateau. Mons is right down the way. Mind the slag heaps.

SHAPE is the military headquarters of NATO.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Homer

I always wondered how most of military infrastructure and support base managed to evaporate in a little under three years of broken backed warfare. Parts of Western Europe and Korea circa late 80s early 90s were almost carpeted with US combat support, combat service support, and headquarters units and installations. There’d be personnel losses due to the conflict, stripping of units for replacements, and physical destruction of facilities but you’d have to have something left to support the fight. One of the best parts about Chico’s work is the attention he’s paying to the supporting and sustaining elements of each side.

My take-

In both real life and the world of Twilight:2000 the US military's grasp of logistics is incredibly good. Even the cavernous warehouses and igloos in the kasernes would be emptied relatively quickly once the "balloon went up" with the Warsaw Pact.
In real life (and I suspect in T2K) ordnance and fuel needs would quickly exhaust those pre-war stockpiles. There would be a ramp up of production at home (industries were already producing for China in their fight against the USSR) but even with increased output you would have:

1. Steady drain on supplies.
2. WP interdiction of logistics on their way to the front
3. Some pilferage and waste/spoilage.

Put another way, no matter what margin for "extra" is built in, armor, artillery and Infantry would probably expend it quickly. The old Quartermaster adage of "keep the best, issue the rest" would go out the window by, say, the second year of the war.

In purely game terms, once the first use of nuclear weapons takes place, you begin to see further supply disruptions (workers afraid of going to work, remaining with families). In addition the game doesn't work as well if PC's can always find FASCAM rounds and plenty of laser guided ordnance.

Just some thoughts.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

My take-

In both real life and the world of Twilight:2000 the US military's grasp of logistics is incredibly good. Even the cavernous warehouses and igloos in the kasernes would be emptied relatively quickly once the "balloon went up" with the Warsaw Pact.
In real life (and I suspect in T2K) ordnance and fuel needs would quickly exhaust those pre-war stockpiles. There would be a ramp up of production at home (industries were already producing for China in their fight against the USSR) but even with increased output you would have:

1. Steady drain on supplies.
2. WP interdiction of logistics on their way to the front
3. Some pilferage and waste/spoilage.

Put another way, no matter what margin for "extra" is built in, armor, artillery and Infantry would probably expend it quickly. The old Quartermaster adage of "keep the best, issue the rest" would go out the window by, say, the second year of the war.

In purely game terms, once the first use of nuclear weapons takes place, you begin to see further supply disruptions (workers afraid of going to work, remaining with families). In addition the game doesn't work as well if PC's can always find FASCAM rounds and plenty of laser guided ordnance.

Just some thoughts.

Yeah, the war in Ukraine is showing just how fast things would get destroyed in a high intensity war. Russia has lost over 3000 tanks and 100,000 men (dead, not including injured) in a year. Sounds like a lot, but doesn't sound like a lot when the USSR had around 60k tanks in 1989. But then again, the USSR was fighting China for a year and half then most of NATO for a year before things went nuclear. China would be a lot harder nut to crack than Ukraine, and Leopard 2s, Challengers, Abrams, + airpower would chew up a lot of vehicles really fast.

One of the stats that has came out of the Ukraine war (and about NATO being prepared for war) is that the UK had stocks on hand for about 2 days of warfare at the usage rate the Russians were using every day. Even assuming a post-Cold War draw down, the US was and is the only country in NATO with the logistical capacity to wage a high intensity conflict for any significant duration.

[Homer]

No doubt that the warstocks would go quickly and the exchange would handicap or prevent new production and distribution. This would make the sustainment effort all the more critical. USAREUR had a three star theater sustainment command (21st TAACOM) providing both materials management and DS/GS/Depot level maintenance and refurbishment. 19th TAACOM performed many of the same functions in Korea. One of the functions of both commands was battle damage repair and return to service of material.

Once the material flow from CONUS dries up, as Chico has shown, it looks like the maintenance organizations will be in greater demand to fix, fab, or cannibalize recovered systems and get them back in the fight. Likewise with material management and POL. Ammunition and other consumables have become a limited commodity, much more so than in the days of relative abundance pre-exchange; some structure would have to be established to manage material and ensure logistics prep for offensives. Husbanding high-end munitions like FASCAM, copperhead, TOW, etc would likely be one of their roles. If you want to play with organized forces (CENTCOM, Korea, etc) you can put a controlled supply rate on the high tech munitions.

By 98, the logistics effort may have expanded to include farming and ration production (salted, smoked, stc), reloading small arms ammo, distilling, clothing and personal equipment repair and reissue, salvage, etc. Centralizing production under a headquarters allows USAREUR to prioritize the logistics effort, even if it is carried out locally by every unit. Part of the preparations for an offensive might be the issue of preserved rations, refurbished material, distilled fuel, and what remains of prewar ammunition to high priority units. Likewise, units manning static defenses may be issued with few or no such munitions.

This doesn’t mean a game would have to have the characters well resourced. 5th ID and the other US forces involved in Ancient Mariner may have been issued with the most complete available scales of equipment and supplies before jumping off, but by the time the end comes at Kalisz they’re likely to have shot or consumed most of that stockpile in the offensive and the fighting detailed in “Death of a Division”. The remnants left constitute the players’ starting equipment. They may have a full load for their Bradley or Abrams, but there is nothing coming behind that. A few good fights and they may be looking for a less capable but easier to maintain ride and more sustainable weapons.

[Ursus Maior]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

Yeah, the war in Ukraine is showing just how fast things would get destroyed in a high intensity war. Russia has lost over 3000 tanks and 100,000 men (dead, not including injured) in a year. Sounds like a lot, but doesn't sound like a lot when the USSR had around 60k tanks in 1989. But then again, the USSR was fighting China for a year and half then most of NATO for a year before things went nuclear. China would be a lot harder nut to crack than Ukraine, and Leopard 2s, Challengers, Abrams, + airpower would chew up a lot of vehicles really fast.

And then, remember that the Ukraine war isn't particularly "high intensity" when measured to a potential NATO vs. USSR (or Pact, depending on background) war as envisioned during the 1980s. It's probably hard to fathom for today's readers of news, but the ongoing war almost completely lacks two dimensions of warfare - naval and aerial - as envisioned for WW3 and it certainly lacks several orders of magnitude in land warfare.

WW3 would have seen not 150,000-200,000 Soviets invade a country of 40 million with a GDP less than Sweden or Belgium (in 2021). Instead, the two biggest power blocs in history, plus China (and a good deal of other countries) would go toe to toe with each other and grind their forces against each other. There's good reasons, why warplanners were looking at 10-30 days scenarios: not a lot would have been standing after that, yet only the second mobilization wave would have been concluded for NATO (the next would have been after 90 days and then after 6 months).

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by Homer

By 98, the logistics effort may have expanded to include farming and ration production (salted, smoked, stc), reloading small arms ammo, distilling, clothing and personal equipment repair and reissue, salvage, etc. Centralizing production under a headquarters allows USAREUR to prioritize the logistics effort, even if it is carried out locally by every unit. Part of the preparations for an offensive might be the issue of preserved rations, refurbished material, distilled fuel, and what remains of prewar ammunition to high priority units. Likewise, units manning static defenses may be issued with few or no such munitions.

Thanks for this Homer! A question for the hive mind: how effective are breweries for producing alcohol for fuel, etither methanol or ethanol? I'm aware of the vast numbers of breweries all throughout Germany, certainly many times more common than distilleries. While units would likely carry smaller stills (like the small and medium stills in the v1 equipment list), it seems likely that units in static positions would want to take advantage of industrial-scale alcohol production capability to build up those stocks.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by chico20854

Thanks for this Homer! A question for the hive mind: how effective are breweries for producing alcohol for fuel, etither methanol or ethanol? I'm aware of the vast numbers of breweries all throughout Germany, certainly many times more common than distilleries. While units would likely carry smaller stills (like the small and medium stills in the v1 equipment list), it seems likely that units in static positions would want to take advantage of industrial-scale alcohol production capability to build up those stocks.

I spent A LOT of time on this in the past. Still weight seemed too high by nearly an order of magnitude for the production volumes. The exception to this is when the fermentation process is ongoing due to liquid weight (I suppose the large volume could be a factor in the "weight"). Therefore I see units needing to be static for the actual production (other reasons as well such as needing fires, having to preprocess the biomass, etc). I suppose reducing still weight by 90% reflects having perfect equipment and maybe 66% to 75% reduction due to ad hoc construction would fit the game better. With these numbers I can see more stills being in the field. The biggest issue in the field would be the refining of the alcohol to 100% as simple distillation only takes you to 95%.

When looking for realism related to alcohol production in game bumps up against a lot of real world problems (like not being able to make it from wood without genetically modified yeast or bacteria we are just now refining). Agricultural waste and things like sawgrass and switchgrass have tremendous potential to be used, but they require more preprocessing which makes the industrial production easier to explain. In the field you would probably need to use something you would much rather save for eating.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by kato13

I spent A LOT of time on this in the past. Still weight seemed too high by nearly an order of magnitude for the production volumes. The exception to this is when the fermentation process is ongoing due to liquid weight (I suppose the large volume could be a factor in the "weight"). Therefore I see units needing to be static for the actual production (other reasons as well such as needing fires, having to preprocess the biomass, etc). I suppose reducing still weight by 90% reflects having perfect equipment and maybe 66% to 75% reduction due to ad hoc construction would fit the game better. With these numbers I can see more stills being in the field. The biggest issue in the field would be the refining of the alcohol to 100% as simple distillation only takes you to 95%.

When looking for realism related to alcohol production in game bumps up against a lot of real world problems (like not being able to make it from wood without genetically modified yeast or bacteria we are just now refining). Agricultural waste and things like sawgrass and switchgrass have tremendous potential to be used, but they require more preprocessing which makes the industrial production easier to explain. In the field you would probably need to use something you would much rather save for eating.

Destructive distillation is the low-tech way to go with methanol production from wood. It's not horribly efficient, but it works, it's fast, and doesn't require yeast and fermentation for a couple of weeks, which is one of the fatal flaws with ethanol production. Likely doable for a character party on the move.

Another way apparently is to heat dry wood to generate wood gas, and use a catalytic process to generate methanol from the wood gas. Not very low tech, and probably not appropriate for a character party on the run.

On a the complex industrialization side of the fence, methanol to gasoline is a thing, and as I posted before, would be easier to get up and running than converting a bunch of 1996 manufactured cars to running on ethanol or methanol. Production wouldn't be enough to get us back to an urban commuter society, but might be enough for the military to keep some aircraft up in the area, generators running for critical activities, and some vehicles running, and given a large cantonment or organized area, accumulate reserves sufficient for things like the Summer 2000 offensive, except using gas instead of alcohol.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

Destructive distillation is the low-tech way to go with methanol production from wood. It's not horribly efficient, but it works, it's fast, and doesn't require yeast and fermentation for a couple of weeks, which is one of the fatal flaws with ethanol production. Likely doable for a character party on the move.

Another way apparently is to heat dry wood to generate wood gas, and use a catalytic process to generate methanol from the wood gas. Not very low tech, and probably not appropriate for a character party on the run.

On a the complex industrialization side of the fence, methanol to gasoline is a thing, and as I posted before, would be easier to get up and running than converting a bunch of 1996 manufactured cars to running on ethanol or methanol. Production wouldn't be enough to get us back to an urban commuter society, but might be enough for the military to keep some aircraft up in the area, generators running for critical activities, and some vehicles running, and given a large cantonment or organized area, accumulate reserves sufficient for things like the Summer 2000 offensive, except using gas instead of alcohol.

We have discussed some of this before in my methanol thread
https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread....3932#post93932

Maybe we move discussion there to keep this thread on track.

[chico20854]

December 28, 1997

Vancouver and Chiliwack, British Columbia are struck by Soviet nuclear weapons.

The Bronx has suffered over 800,000 fatalities in December and afterwards. Queens suffers half again as many casualties in the food and race riots as Manhattan (over 1.2 million fatalities in Queens, as opposed to over 800,000 in Manhattan).

Unofficially,

RainbowSix notes that Edinburgh, Scotland’s pre-war capital, is not directly targeted by the Soviets, but sufferes some loss of life and damage from the strikes on nearby Grangemouth and Rosyth, with fall out drifting over the western suburbs. Large numbers of people have fled the city in the last few months, with many heading for the perceived safety of the largely rural Border regions. Those who remain suffer from starvation, disease, and civil disorder.

Glasgow has been devastated by the Soviet nuclear attacks, with the death toll exceeding half a million people. Some refugees try to enter the area around Dumfries and Lockerbie in the aftermath of the nuclear strike on Glasgow, but most are turned back in a series of often deadly clashes with the locals.

French and Belgian military leaders work through the night on plans to halt the refugee flow using their nation's still largely intact military forces. They reach the conclusion that the only reasonable solution is to occupy German and Dutch territory, securing the Rhine as a hard barrier.

In northwestern Poland, the Polish 7th Marine Division is the last unit to evacuate the near-pocket between II MEF, V US Corps and the Baltic. The Polish marines take heavy losses from their advancing American, Dutch and German counterparts, leaving the Polish division a nearly empty shell.

In Bavaria, American GLCM cruise missiles are fired at Rome, Milan and Naples, Italy to eliminate Italy's ability to prosecute the war; the Italian III and IV Corps in southern Germany are already severly hampered by the closure of the mountain passes by weather and American nuclear strikes, forcing their supplies to be routed around the Alps through eastern Austria.

The carriers Roosevelt and Eisenhower, operating off the central Norwegian coast, launch one of their remaining few airstrikes before running out of aviation fuel and spare parts for the aircraft (nearly a quarter of their combined air groups have already been relegated to "hangar queen" status, serving as parts donors as maintenance crews are forced to cannibalize to keep airplanes operational). The strikes, using conventional munitions, knock out the transformer yard and ancillary facilities at the Kola nuclear power plant near Murmansk, disconnecting it from the power grid and allowing the operators to shut it down safely rather than induce a nuclear disaster that would contaminate the Arctic for centuries.

The American light frigate USS Marchand, on patrol in the North Atlantic, nearly capsizes after being struck by a wave coming from the aft quarter. The ship, built as a war emergency measure despite the Bear/Famous-class Coast Guard cutters it shares a design with's reputation as poor sea boats, loses its CIWS mount and its HU-65 helicopter, shaken about in its hangar, is a total loss. The captain orders a return to the nearest port for emergency repairs. Its sister the USS Petit is dispatched from the North Sea at 16 knots to Portsmouth, England to escort two ships on a special mission.

In central Dezful, the remaining Soviet troops (with a few Tudeh diehards fighting alongside) continue to put up fierce resistance to surrounding Iranian and American troops despite dwindling reserves of food, water and ammunition.

USANVCENT/Fifth Fleet dispatches the former Coast Guard Cutter USCG Thetis (newly arrived with the last supply convoy from home) to Diego Garcia, where it is to land a team (by one of the ship's small boats or its helicopter) to identify what facilities remain intact, what the repair effort required may be and what resources can be salvaged. The ship's complement includes a team of engineer planners from the 416th Engineer Command to assist with the effort.

An American B-2 bomber loitering over the Urals (an increasingly uncommon occurrence as fuel shortages cut back the number of sorties) catches a rare prize - a rail-mobile SS-24 missile train emerging from a tunnel, where it has been hiding between launches. It is quickly dispatched by a lone B61 nuclear bomb; it has never been determined what targets were spared by the attack, or, indeed, whether it was emerging to attack or simply to reposition.

[Ewan]

Originally Posted by chico20854

December 28, 1997

Glasgow has been devastated by the Soviet nuclear attacks, with the death toll exceeding half a million people.

Well this is where I die in the T2K universe

[chico20854]

December 29, 1997

Nothing official for today!

The last known commmunication is transmitted by Secretary General Sauronski from the safety of his bunker complex under Zhiguli, which was severely damaged when by an American 9-megaton bomb struck the fortress on November 30. His ultimate fate has never been determined, despite decades of speculation, rumors and inquiries.

An alliance of two Canadian biker gangs, the Stone Machine and the Bandits, cross the border into North Dakota and raid the Cobray firearms plant six miles south of the border. They overwhelm the security force and make away with hundreds of MAC-10 SMGs and Street Sweeper shotguns.

A tragedy occurs on the Ohio River, when the dinner cruise boat Belle of the Ohio catches fire and burns to the waterline. The boat, only certified by he Coast Guard to carry passengers for a maximum of four hours, had been pressed into service to evacuate residents of Cincinnati, Ohio to rural communities in northwestern Kentucky. Fue was in short supply, and survivors indicate that the crew was unable to run the heating system on the boat and that some evacuees on the top deck (the ship was carrying over 1500 passengers, despite being rated for 400) lit fires to try to keep warm. A precise death toll was never compiled as no passenger manifest had been prepared and many bodies washed downstream in the icy river.

RainbowSix notes that the nuclear strikes see waves of refugees flee the cities of Yorkshire, leading to often deadly clashes with communities who have not been directly targeted. In some cases refugees take over a community, then start fighting amongst themselves, and a number of towns and villages are now little more than burned out shells occupied (and fought over) by several different groups, whilst others have become fortified enclaves, where strangers are unwelcome and will be turned away, by force if necessary. Tyneside and Wearside both escape nuclear attack (quite how this happened remained a mystery to most people in the region). Northampton is ravaged by riots that started off over food but ended up in wanton destruction and looting. Twenty miles to the north of Northampton, the town of Corby, home to a plant that manufactured steel tubes and a nuclear power station before the war, suceeds in shutting down both facilities.

The 221st Military Police Brigade (US Army Reserve) arrives at the military port facility at Port Hueneme, California (secured by Navy Seebees) (officially) to assume internal security duties in Southern Califonia. (Unofficially, it is tasked with bringing the near-renegade 5th California Brigade to heel).

Shortly before midnight, several small teams from the French 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment and 13th Parachute Dragoon Regiment slip over the border into the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Germany west of the Rhine. They are tasked to determine the conditions on the ground, including surviving military units and facilities, concentrations of refugees and the condition of transportaion routes and chokepoints.

The Armee d'laire (French Air Force) issues a desperate call for all flightworthy transports overseas (throughout Africa and the Middle East, plus a lone C-130H in Frencch Guyana) to immediately return to Metropolitan France.

The Bundeswehr command begins preparations for an attack in Czechoslovakia in hopes of forcing the Czechs to withdraw their forces from southern Germany, clearing the way for the reconquest of the occupied areas. Supplies and reinforcements are brought forward; many of both have been stripped from terriorial units, especially those west of the Rhine, which are unlikely to see combat in the medium term and which are nearly entirely devoted to managing refugees and deserters.

King Haakon of Norway makes his first official public appearance when the "Arctic Fox" visits with refugees in the countryside outside Oslo.

The light frigate USS Petit meets up with its charges, a freighter and a large, aged troop transport, off Portsmouth and proceeds southwest, making sure to stay clear of French territorial waters, where a squadron of surface combatants has sortied from the French naval base of Lorient.

The US Navy's Sixth Fleet, facing the collapse of its logistic and repair infrastructuer and extensive damage to Gibraltar and Norfolk, makes the difficult decision to abandon the damaged USS America, which has been anchored in Sigonella, Sicily since it was damaged by mines and torpedoes in early October. The remaining crew (many have been transferred to other units or reassigned to shoreside security duties) work on transferring valuable materiel to the other American carrier in the Mediterranean, the USS John F. Kennedy. Three civilian cargo ships (the Berlin Freedom, the Cape Archway and the Panamanian Amer Asha) are also in port, ready to take on additional supplies and to transfer excess crewmembers to other locations, as Sixth Fleet has made the decision to abandon Sigonella as well.

[chico20854]

December 30, 1997

Dutch units on internal security duties suffer from desertions and poor morale as the nation suffers in the chaotic aftermath of Soviet nuclear strikes.

Unofficially,

The Freedom-class cargo ship El Paso Freedom is delivered in Portland, Oregon. The shipyard will struggle to complete another ship, but it is never delivered.

The Soviets launch what will turn out to be their last strategic nuclear attack on the US, with SS-N-18 missiles from the Delta III-class SSBN K-424 striking targets in the southeast. Dobbins Air Force Base, home of the US Air Force Reserve Command and the C-130 production line northwest of Atlanta, is hit with a 450-kiloton warhead (from a single-warhead SS-N-18), while Warner Robbins Air Force Base to the southeast is plastered by three 100-kiloton warheads from a SS-N-18, neutralizing the PAVE PAWS SLBM-detection radar. Fort Gillem and Fort Gordon are each hit by two 100-kiloton warheads from the same missile, ccausing heavy losses to the troops there.

RainbowSix reports that large numbers of people flee the cities of the West Midlands. This leads to a number of violent clashes between locals and refugees. Birmingham, the largest city in the UK outside London, suffers a complete collapse of law and order when the authorities, hopelessly outnumbered and having already lost large swathes of the city to the mobs, decide to withdraw all troops and police to prevent them from being overrun. (Whilst most Army units obey and pull out, a number of police officers, most of whom live in the same communities that are being abandoned, disobey the order and stay put).

Though not targeted by the Soviets, rioting and looting takes its toll on Birmingham, and much of the city is reduced to burned out ruins. Much of the southern part of Staffordshire descends into chaos as waves of refugees enter the area following the destruction of Wolverhampton and Coventry. Warwickshire also suffers due to its proximity to the West Midlands conurbation, with large numbers of refugees entering the northern part of the county from Birmingham, Wolverhampton, and Coventry. Several towns are effectively taken over by refugees, who force out the former occupants, and violent clashes between different groups are commonplace, particularly in the area bordering what remains of Coventry.

French and Belgian military authorities implement a nationwide civilian communications blackout - the telephone system is turned off for civilians, as are telegraph and postal services. The high-speed TGV rail network is shut down as well (the airlines and civil aviation having been grounded following the nuclear strikes on French refineries earlier in the month), and a curfew imposed within 100 km of the border. This lockdown succeeds in cleariing the transportation routes and preventing word from slipping out of the massive troop movements towards the nations broders.

American missile squadrons in Europe launch another round of strikes on Warsaw Pact capitals as SACEUR, largely out of communication with President Munson and other NATO heads of state, is determined to eliminate Warsaw Pact allies' ability to continue waging the war. Prague, Budapest and Sofia are all struck by cruise missiles. killing additional hundreds of thousands of people. SACEUR is forced to use cruise missiles for the strikes by the dire state of his tactical air fleet, which has been ravaged by over a year of action, nuclear and conventional attacks on air bases and a near-collapse of the supply situation as desperate refugees look to the military to provide relief in the harsh winter conditions.

A French squadron sallies from the Channel Fleet's base in Cherbourg, preceded by minesweepers and operating under the cover of Atlantique patrol aircraft and Mirage interceptors to ward off any observers.

The Soviet 7th Army begins to crumble as it comes under fierce Allied attack from both north and south. Air operations over the front have largely halted as shortages of fuel, spare parts and muniions, not to mention replacement aircraft and pilots, all mount.

[Homer]

NSA is taking a beating. The HQs at Fort Meade is gone, as is the regional center (RSOC) at Gordon. The regional site at Kunia is probably compromised by the situation on Oahu, and the site at Augsburg probably destroyed in conventional fighting. That leaves the regional site at Medina Annex in San Antonio and the complex at Buckley.

There’s still collectors out there as long as satellites stay up, ships are still at sea, and aircraft fly, but the ability to process and correlate the data has been greatly reduced.

[Claidheamh]

Originally Posted by Homer

NSA is taking a beating. The HQs at Fort Meade is gone, as is the regional center (RSOC) at Gordon. The regional site at Kunia is probably compromised by the situation on Oahu, and the site at Augsburg probably destroyed in conventional fighting. That leaves the regional site at Medina Annex in San Antonio and the complex at Buckley.

I don't remember if there's a canon ruling on who the NSA sides with (MILGOV or CIVGOV)? I assume that by the end of '98-'99, there's so little left of their equipment, networks, and resources that it hardly matters.