Re-instated U.S. draft

[castlebravo92]

So, when do we collectively think the U.S. Congress and the President would have re-instated the draft?

Before hostilities with USSR?

As soon as US became a co-belligerent?

Or after casualties/time reached a certain point?

The US was involved in combat with the USSR/Warsaw Pact from Nov 1996 on. By end of Nov 1997, nukes were hitting the US, so there would have been a relatively short period of time (<1 year) for callups to be effective.

[Raellus]

Inspired by Castlebravo's question, I added a poll.

-

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

So, when do we collectively think the U.S. Congress and the President would have re-instated the draft?

Before hostilities with USSR?

As soon as US became a co-belligerent?

Or after casualties/time reached a certain point?

The US was involved in combat with the USSR/Warsaw Pact from Nov 1996 on. By end of Nov 1997, nukes were hitting the US, so there would have been a relatively short period of time (<1 year) for callups to be effective.

Politically I would think a draft would be too risk before we were directly involved for an Administration.

I agree there would have been a relatively short window for the draft-you figure a year for Basic and even a quick AIT for someone to absorb knowledge and become proficient in their slot. Probably just as importantly we still (1995ish) had enough active posts that could spin up and conduct Basic.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

Politically I would think a draft would be too risk before we were directly involved for an Administration.

I agree there would have been a relatively short window for the draft-you figure a year for Basic and even a quick AIT for someone to absorb knowledge and become proficient in their slot. Probably just as importantly we still (1995ish) had enough active posts that could spin up and conduct Basic.

Yeah, since GDW basically went with the 1988ish US ORBAT with no new units (AFAIK), my head canon says that draftees (and volunteers) were used to round out activated NG units (given that the whole NG round out brigade thing proved dubious during Desert Shield / Desert Storm) and replace combat losses for existing units. Training divisions were intended to (in head canon at least) to turn out trained classes which would then be directed to individual units in small batches. The conversion of these training orgs to actual combat units was an emergency measure in mid to late 1998.

Context: writing a Texas Almanac: 2000, and trying to fill in the back history of the war for Texas in general, and installations like Ft. Hood etc.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

Politically I would think a draft would be too risk before we were directly involved for an Administration.

I agree, especially in the v1 timeline. With NATO starting the war in Europe, there might be significant domestic opposition to American involvement in the USA. Therefore, I think the draft would start as soon as it becomes clear that WWIII is expanding outside the bounds of Central Europe, into the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula.

-

[Bestbrian]

Assuming a version 1 timeline, I always thought not long after the China/USSR war breaks out, so about a year and a half before the balloon goes up in Germany. The politics would've been fraught, but early action would've been necessary to gear up the system and start cranking out the technical MOS's that require longer training times. Eighteen months can generate a number of troops from the OSUT MOS's, but is barely enough time to graduate one cohort of Cat 4 MI linguists, for example. Maybe we have a scenario where the higher DLPT scores get drafted first?

[kato13]

To try to get draftees in earlier, I would have a similar program to HCPDS
https://www.sss.gov/about/return-to-draft/#s4
but for logistical specialists (truck drivers, dock workers, rail workers , etc)

I could easily see a domestic use only, specialist draft for limited MOSes related to logistics, once Reforger starts, and perhaps even earlier.

Using a real world parallel, I think back to Desert Storm and if you overlay the US supporting China similar to how we are currently supporting Ukraine , I could see the logistics needs getting overloaded and needing specialists on the home front to replace those sent overseas.

[Homer]

My window is not earlier than December 1996, since both parties would want to avoid turning the draft on before the November 1996 election. I’ve taken a lot of threads from Chico’s history, some pop culture, as well as cannon to build a timeline of selective service; my apologies if anything is amiss or I have failed to give credit where it’s due.

The initial DoD request for a draft following the first hostilities in Germany and elsewhere during October 1996 is not supported by POTUS, who hopes to keep the US clear of the war. As a sop, DoD does get consent to lower enlistment standards and expand waiver authority to increase the eligible volunteer population. Nevertheless, the selective service system is quietly directed to begin preparations to be ready to deliver inductees by January of 1997 following receipt of a general notice in June as the war in China spiraled.

In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoD’s analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the “New National Defense Act”, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea. Decriers are quick to point out that the new draft squarely targets young adults who aren’t able find a way out. Red Night, a popular alternative rock band, releases a hit protest single “Vacation” in response. More concretely, Vietnam Era draft resister groups start to re-emerge and offer passage to Canada or other sanctuaries.

The draft debate becomes more public and widespread through December and early January as it becomes clear that the war will only get costlier following the battles in East Germany, Norway, at sea, and the initiation of hostilities in Korea. POTUS seeks to expand the draft, under advisement from SECDEF, JCS and the intelligence community that the war will only continue to spread and escalate. While friendly legislators draft the bill, the measure fails a motion to proceed to the floor for a vote. Instead DoD is given a supplemental appropriation in early February to be used to support expansion of the recruiting force, MEPS infrastructure and manning, and enlistment bonuses to help compete with the burgeoning wartime economy. The language of the New National Defense Act is also quietly amended to allow its draftees to be deployed overseas.

By early March, the continued bloodletting in Norway, the buildup to operation Advent Crown, the buildup in the Middle East and the meatgrinder combat in Korea are taking their toll on personnel replacements. Following a series of briefs to the HASC and the SASC throughout March, the debate is reopened in the draft. Staunch opposition in the legislature and among the public continues, but the success of operations in East Germany and favorable news in the war at sea serve to quiet fears of a “forever war” as the narrative begins to shift to “liberation” from communism. A stand-alone measure to expand the draft provisions of the “New National Defense Act” to allow a draft of 20-25 year olds (without deferment) and medical professionals narrowly passes in early April, and this “Patriot Act” is ceremonially signed into law on April 19, 1997, the 222d anniversary of the Battles of Lexington and Concord. Pundits across the nation comment on the irony of the anniversary juxtaposed with the ongoing unrest in Boston following fuel shortages. Announcements of the new measure are met with protests on college campuses and among health care workers, while the rest of the nation accepts it as one more step on an already long and bloody road.

The first inductions under the Patriot Act occur in May of 1997. While there are instances of resistance, unlike in previous drafts there is no haven to flee to due to the global situation (Canada started returning US draft dodgers in April) and limited sympathy from (drafted) medical professionals for those seeking to be found unfit. The call-ups of national guard and reserve units and their involvement in combat have brought the war home across America and lessened sympathy for would-be draft dodgers as well as draft-resistance groups. In one incident New York State Troopers at the Buffalo MEPs are forced to intervene when a group of students and activists including Red Night’s lead singer Billy Roe Weakhand are attacked by a group of supporters and family members from Buffalo area National Guard and Reserve units. Ironically, Mr. Weakhand would soon find himself the recipient of a draft notice, leading him to enlist in the US Air Force as a fuels specialist, reporting to March AFB in October of 1997.

One unforeseen consequence of the draft and additional expenditures on recruiting is an increase in voluntary enlistments as bonuses and the prospect of having some control in their future service attract young men (and some women). The months between the passage of the New National Defense Act and the first Patriot Act inductions sees the investment in recruiting infrastructure more than justified as enlistees swell the training base. This is especially true when factories begin to give preference to older workers who won’t be liable to the draft.

The invasion of Alaska serves as a catalyst for further expansion of the draft. Panicked by the sudden advance of Soviet forces in addition to reverses and casualties on other fronts, a request to amend the Patriot Act to include ages 18-25 and previously excepted groups including eligible aliens, select clergy, and dual citizens is rapidly approved by a legislature fixated on the threat of Soviet troops on US soil. The amendment passes on 17 June, and is announced the same day along with news of further reverses in Alaska, a brutal battle over a monastery in an unpronounceable city in Poland, and what looks to be a disastrous offensive in North Norway. The new induction measures are set to go into effect on 1 July, but DoD is successful in having implementation pushed back until 1 August to prepare the already stretched training base for a new surge of draftees.

The panic accompanying the initiation of tactical nuclear warfare in July and the subsequent mass exodus disrupts the flow of draft notices and shipment of draftees. Postal employees and draft board officials join with others in making plans to flee the specter of nuclear war, while buses and trains are packed with panicked city dwellers fleeing the megatons they fear are inbound. This causes a hiccup in the intake process; plans are made to accelerate training until things are back on track by compressing certain blocks and exploiting the summer weather to lengthen the training day. Guidance is given to continue to process and ship enlisted and draftees from MEPS to training bases and let the services solve the problem once the trainees are there. The newly inaugurated Operation Certain Delivery directs local commanders to use available national guard and reserve troops to secure dedicated trains and buses for transportation. This leads to a near riot at the 30th Street Station in Philadelphia, when a crowd attempting to board an AMTRAK “Certain Delivery” train confronts an outnumbered USNR guard force from the Philadelphia Navy Yard. The guard force commander, a recalled former F-14 pilot, is on the verge of suffering a nervous breakdown and ordering his sailors to fire a volley over the crowd when AMTRAK and a quick thinking prior USMC Philadelphia Police officer intervene.

By 1 September, the induction and training machine is functioning smoothly. All services report that they are at or near full capacity and able to, for now, keep up with manpower demands from the fronts. Despite the disruption of tactical nuclear warfare, and the worldwide scope of the conflict, the selective service system is doing its part to meet the tasks it was warned to execute just over a year before. As conscription becomes the new normal, discussion turns to other that could benefit from the expertise built by the selective service system. The first question put to the selective service system is how to resolve the issue of those not suitable for service. For the SSS this also means ensuring the survival of a bureaucracy which has grown in size and influence over the past year. With input from the SSS, Congress authorizes a 30 day National Workplace Study, directing the SSS to determine how they could assist in mobilizing additional workers during periods of national emergency from those not suitable for military service. The second question put to the SSS by an unusual coalition of far right and far left lawmakers was how to expand selective service to include women. This would be much thornier, but for the SSS, it meant a potentially more substantial increase in structure and budget. The Women’s Selective Service Study was also authorized for 30 days. Both studies were delivered to congress by the SSS on 1 October, just in time for a scheduled recess. Meanwhile, the selective service system continued to run.

Committee actions on the proposed National Workplace Act and Women’s Wartime Equality amendment to the Selective Service Act began in early October, and draft legislation was introduced just before the Thanksgiving recess. The continuing nuclear exchanges in Europe had become a fixture, and it seemed like once again America would be the Arsenal of Democracy, sending forces to fight around the world while remaining more or less untouched. The war news continued, some good, some bad. As the draft continued, opposition lessened, replaced with a grim resignation. Unlike the Vietnam Era draft, the sweeping eligibility of the current draft met with widespread acceptance as it was generally (unless you were swept up) perceived to be fair. As the war ground on, volunteers continued to outnumber draftees, with many draftees ending up in jobs in support echelons while many volunteers gravitated towards combat or combat support jobs. On the home front industry was near full capacity, with many plants working three shifts six days a week and workers coming home to tired to spend their swollen pay packets or to worry too much about a war occurring far away from home.

The strategic exchanges of November-December 1997 mark the end of the new normal and the end of the SSS until the recovery era. The strike on DC and the subsequent chaos gutted the National Headquarters while the data center and 2 of the 3 Region Headquarters were destroyed by Soviet strikes or civil disorder. Without computerized records or much of its functioning infrastructure, the rump of the SSS proves barely capable of continuing to administer itself, much less preside over continuing draft lotteries. The post strike period sees the SSS relocation team, under the former Deputy Director, operating from a relocation site in the Federal Arc, delegate many of its functions to state managers. They too are overwhelmed, and soon, the local draft board again rises to prominence.

When President Munson signs FEP-D in 1997, part of the packet of papers he signs into law are a draft of the NWA and WWE as well an order granting SSS the power to establish local draft boards in the event of national emergency (the redundancy of this is seen as an example of the fragmented nature of post attack America).

The SSS split along with the rest of the US Government; the Colorado Regional Headquarters eventually aligning with MILGOV and the reconstituted National Headquarters remained with CIVGOV. However, they both continued to perform the function of manpower mobilizer to whatever degree they could, wielding their authorities under FEP-D, NWA, and WWE either directly or through local boards to get the willing or unwilling troops and labor necessary in the dark years of the Twilight War.

[castlebravo92]

Homer, this is a really good write up. Mind if I crib some of this? Will give full cite, credit etc to you and Chico (and anyone else), but this fills in a pretty big narrative hole.

FWIW, the Texas Almanac is going to be 100% free and as far as plans go, only planning on "publishing" here.

[Homer]

Thanks! And definitely, if you can use it, use it.

[Ewan]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

FWIW, the Texas Almanac is going to be 100% free and as far as plans go, only planning on "publishing" here.

What is the Texas Almanac as it’s piqued my interest. Thanks

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Homer

My window is not earlier than December 1996, since both parties would want to avoid turning the draft on before the November 1996 election. I’ve taken a lot of threads from Chico’s history, some pop culture, as well as cannon to build a timeline of selective service; my apologies if anything is amiss or I have failed to give credit where it’s due.

The initial DoD request for a draft following the first hostilities in Germany and elsewhere during October 1996 is not supported by POTUS, who hopes to keep the US clear of the war. As a sop, DoD does get consent to lower enlistment standards and expand waiver authority to increase the eligible volunteer population. Nevertheless, the selective service system is quietly directed to begin preparations to be ready to deliver inductees by January of 1997 following receipt of a general notice in June as the war in China spiraled.

In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoD’s analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the “New National Defense Act”, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea. Decriers are quick to point out that the new draft squarely targets young adults who aren’t able find a way out. Red Night, a popular alternative rock band, releases a hit protest single “Vacation” in response. More concretely, Vietnam Era draft resister groups start to re-emerge and offer passage to Canada or other sanctuaries.

The draft debate becomes more public and widespread through December and early January as it becomes clear that the war will only get costlier following the battles in East Germany, Norway, at sea, and the initiation of hostilities in Korea. POTUS seeks to expand the draft, under advisement from SECDEF, JCS and the intelligence community that the war will only continue to spread and escalate. While friendly legislators draft the bill, the measure fails a motion to proceed to the floor for a vote. Instead DoD is given a supplemental appropriation in early February to be used to support expansion of the recruiting force, MEPS infrastructure and manning, and enlistment bonuses to help compete with the burgeoning wartime economy. The language of the New National Defense Act is also quietly amended to allow its draftees to be deployed overseas.

By early March, the continued bloodletting in Norway, the buildup to operation Advent Crown, the buildup in the Middle East and the meatgrinder combat in Korea are taking their toll on personnel replacements. Following a series of briefs to the HASC and the SASC throughout March, the debate is reopened in the draft. Staunch opposition in the legislature and among the public continues, but the success of operations in East Germany and favorable news in the war at sea serve to quiet fears of a “forever war” as the narrative begins to shift to “liberation” from communism. A stand-alone measure to expand the draft provisions of the “New National Defense Act” to allow a draft of 20-25 year olds (without deferment) and medical professionals narrowly passes in early April, and this “Patriot Act” is ceremonially signed into law on April 19, 1997, the 222d anniversary of the Battles of Lexington and Concord. Pundits across the nation comment on the irony of the anniversary juxtaposed with the ongoing unrest in Boston following fuel shortages. Announcements of the new measure are met with protests on college campuses and among health care workers, while the rest of the nation accepts it as one more step on an already long and bloody road.

The first inductions under the Patriot Act occur in May of 1997. While there are instances of resistance, unlike in previous drafts there is no haven to flee to due to the global situation (Canada started returning US draft dodgers in April) and limited sympathy from (drafted) medical professionals for those seeking to be found unfit. The call-ups of national guard and reserve units and their involvement in combat have brought the war home across America and lessened sympathy for would-be draft dodgers as well as draft-resistance groups. In one incident New York State Troopers at the Buffalo MEPs are forced to intervene when a group of students and activists including Red Night’s lead singer Billy Roe Weakhand are attacked by a group of supporters and family members from Buffalo area National Guard and Reserve units. Ironically, Mr. Weakhand would soon find himself the recipient of a draft notice, leading him to enlist in the US Air Force as a fuels specialist, reporting to March AFB in October of 1997.

One unforeseen consequence of the draft and additional expenditures on recruiting is an increase in voluntary enlistments as bonuses and the prospect of having some control in their future service attract young men (and some women). The months between the passage of the New National Defense Act and the first Patriot Act inductions sees the investment in recruiting infrastructure more than justified as enlistees swell the training base. This is especially true when factories begin to give preference to older workers who won’t be liable to the draft.

The invasion of Alaska serves as a catalyst for further expansion of the draft. Panicked by the sudden advance of Soviet forces in addition to reverses and casualties on other fronts, a request to amend the Patriot Act to include ages 18-25 and previously excepted groups including eligible aliens, select clergy, and dual citizens is rapidly approved by a legislature fixated on the threat of Soviet troops on US soil. The amendment passes on 17 June, and is announced the same day along with news of further reverses in Alaska, a brutal battle over a monastery in an unpronounceable city in Poland, and what looks to be a disastrous offensive in North Norway. The new induction measures are set to go into effect on 1 July, but DoD is successful in having implementation pushed back until 1 August to prepare the already stretched training base for a new surge of draftees.

The panic accompanying the initiation of tactical nuclear warfare in July and the subsequent mass exodus disrupts the flow of draft notices and shipment of draftees. Postal employees and draft board officials join with others in making plans to flee the specter of nuclear war, while buses and trains are packed with panicked city dwellers fleeing the megatons they fear are inbound. This causes a hiccup in the intake process; plans are made to accelerate training until things are back on track by compressing certain blocks and exploiting the summer weather to lengthen the training day. Guidance is given to continue to process and ship enlisted and draftees from MEPS to training bases and let the services solve the problem once the trainees are there. The newly inaugurated Operation Certain Delivery directs local commanders to use available national guard and reserve troops to secure dedicated trains and buses for transportation. This leads to a near riot at the 30th Street Station in Philadelphia, when a crowd attempting to board an AMTRAK “Certain Delivery” train confronts an outnumbered USNR guard force from the Philadelphia Navy Yard. The guard force commander, a recalled former F-14 pilot, is on the verge of suffering a nervous breakdown and ordering his sailors to fire a volley over the crowd when AMTRAK and a quick thinking prior USMC Philadelphia Police officer intervene.

By 1 September, the induction and training machine is functioning smoothly. All services report that they are at or near full capacity and able to, for now, keep up with manpower demands from the fronts. Despite the disruption of tactical nuclear warfare, and the worldwide scope of the conflict, the selective service system is doing its part to meet the tasks it was warned to execute just over a year before. As conscription becomes the new normal, discussion turns to other that could benefit from the expertise built by the selective service system. The first question put to the selective service system is how to resolve the issue of those not suitable for service. For the SSS this also means ensuring the survival of a bureaucracy which has grown in size and influence over the past year. With input from the SSS, Congress authorizes a 30 day National Workplace Study, directing the SSS to determine how they could assist in mobilizing additional workers during periods of national emergency from those not suitable for military service. The second question put to the SSS by an unusual coalition of far right and far left lawmakers was how to expand selective service to include women. This would be much thornier, but for the SSS, it meant a potentially more substantial increase in structure and budget. The Women’s Selective Service Study was also authorized for 30 days. Both studies were delivered to congress by the SSS on 1 October, just in time for a scheduled recess. Meanwhile, the selective service system continued to run.

Committee actions on the proposed National Workplace Act and Women’s Wartime Equality amendment to the Selective Service Act began in early October, and draft legislation was introduced just before the Thanksgiving recess. The continuing nuclear exchanges in Europe had become a fixture, and it seemed like once again America would be the Arsenal of Democracy, sending forces to fight around the world while remaining more or less untouched. The war news continued, some good, some bad. As the draft continued, opposition lessened, replaced with a grim resignation. Unlike the Vietnam Era draft, the sweeping eligibility of the current draft met with widespread acceptance as it was generally (unless you were swept up) perceived to be fair. As the war ground on, volunteers continued to outnumber draftees, with many draftees ending up in jobs in support echelons while many volunteers gravitated towards combat or combat support jobs. On the home front industry was near full capacity, with many plants working three shifts six days a week and workers coming home to tired to spend their swollen pay packets or to worry too much about a war occurring far away from home.

The strategic exchanges of November-December 1997 mark the end of the new normal and the end of the SSS until the recovery era. The strike on DC and the subsequent chaos gutted the National Headquarters while the data center and 2 of the 3 Region Headquarters were destroyed by Soviet strikes or civil disorder. Without computerized records or much of its functioning infrastructure, the rump of the SSS proves barely capable of continuing to administer itself, much less preside over continuing draft lotteries. The post strike period sees the SSS relocation team, under the former Deputy Director, operating from a relocation site in the Federal Arc, delegate many of its functions to state managers. They too are overwhelmed, and soon, the local draft board again rises to prominence.

When President Munson signs FEP-D in 1997, part of the packet of papers he signs into law are a draft of the NWA and WWE as well an order granting SSS the power to establish local draft boards in the event of national emergency (the redundancy of this is seen as an example of the fragmented nature of post attack America).

The SSS split along with the rest of the US Government; the Colorado Regional Headquarters eventually aligning with MILGOV and the reconstituted National Headquarters remained with CIVGOV. However, they both continued to perform the function of manpower mobilizer to whatever degree they could, wielding their authorities under FEP-D, NWA, and WWE either directly or through local boards to get the willing or unwilling troops and labor in the dark years of the Twilight War.

Would a well meaning but clueless Milgov or Civgov commander want to send a team to recover magnetic tape backups or some of the mountains of physical cards that were housed in IL? It would make for an interesting Maguffin for an adventure.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by kato13

To try to get draftees in earlier, I would have a similar program to HCPDS
https://www.sss.gov/about/return-to-draft/#s4
but for logistical specialists (truck drivers, dock workers, rail workers , etc)

I could easily see a domestic use only, specialist draft for limited MOSes related to logistics, once Reforger starts, and perhaps even earlier.

Using a real world parallel, I think back to Desert Storm and if you overlay the US supporting China similar to how we are currently supporting Ukraine , I could see the logistics needs getting overloaded and needing specialists on the home front to replace those sent overseas.

Long before Iraq/Afghanistan the US Army used Stop Loss pretty often right before and then during REFORGER IRL. I would imagine by 1995 unit commanders would begin quietly using or consider using Stop Loss on a small scale.

Normally if you have been out more than three years regardless of the fine print or the emergency it's not worth bringing you back onto active duty-too many things have changed.

Now if you happen to be a harbor master or harbor pilot-that's a different story. Tiny numbers available to begin with and During Desert Shield/Desert Storm lots of them got rudely called back-to their everlasting chagrin.

The same thing would have happened to railway qualified (the new 88U MOS) had the civilian freight railroads not convinced the Army they could handle the movements (and largely did a good job of doing so). Otherwise lots of old Army railroaders would have gotten unpleasant callbacks. Lots of older guys with real physical problems that wouldn't excuse them too-many exceptions to policy.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

Long before Iraq/Afghanistan the US Army used Stop Loss pretty often right before and then during REFORGER IRL. I would imagine by 1995 unit commanders would begin quietly using or consider using Stop Loss on a small scale.

Normally if you have been out more than three years regardless of the fine print or the emergency it's not worth bringing you back onto active duty-too many things have changed.

I read a post-Desert Storm study of recalled inactive reservists. Some had been off active duty for less than a month, others no more than 2 years. When they got called up they were treated, in general, like new trainees fresh off the street, with reserve drill sergeants to bring them up to speed. Some of these guys were combat vets from Panama and nearly all of them thought themselves up to speed, just needing to get back into shape maybe, and found the treatment extremely degrading. After finally getting certified combat ready, they were sent to Germany as replacements, where in many cases the gaining commanders put them on menial duties...

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

Lots of older guys with real physical problems that wouldn't excuse them too-many exceptions to policy.

I served with a supply sergeant stationed in Germany during Desert Storm. They took his armorer/clerk to fill out another unit and sent him a replacement from the IRR (Inactive Ready Reserve). The guy had been put out of the Army 5 years or more prior for being overweight and hadn't stopped eating since. They sent him to Germany on an exception to policy and wearing a....
maternity uniform!

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by chico20854

I read a post-Desert Storm study of recalled inactive reservists. Some had been off active duty for less than a month, others no more than 2 years. When they got called up they were treated, in general, like new trainees fresh off the street, with reserve drill sergeants to bring them up to speed. Some of these guys were combat vets from Panama and nearly all of them thought themselves up to speed, just needing to get back into shape maybe, and found the treatment extremely degrading. After finally getting certified combat ready, they were sent to Germany as replacements, where in many cases the gaining commanders put them on menial duties...



I served with a supply sergeant stationed in Germany during Desert Storm. They took his armorer/clerk to fill out another unit and sent him a replacement from the IRR (Inactive Ready Reserve). The guy had been put out of the Army 5 years or more prior for being overweight and hadn't stopped eating since. They sent him to Germany on an exception to policy and wearing a....
maternity uniform!

Yikes. As Charlie Brown would say "Good Grief."

[Homer]

I figure stop loss/stop move would have been increasingly implemented during early 96 as the China war escalated and reserve component units were mobilized and if necessary federalized.

Politically, ordering a mobilization was a big deal at that time, as was federalizing the guard at large scale. Since it’s an election year, there would be a push to be seen as taking matching actions with federal forces, possibly as part of a “tough on Soviet Aggression” platform.

The economic disruption caused by waves of call-up would be offset in part by the rapidly increasing volume of defense production orders from China, Allies, and the DoD. The incumbent campaign would probably seek to highlight increasing economic growth AND the “successful” containment of the war to China (the CT ops in Saudi Arabia can be conducted well below the radar) all the way up until the Bundeswehr crosses the IGB.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by Ewan

What is the Texas Almanac as it’s piqued my interest. Thanks

Culmination of a bunch of things.

1. A v1 style color map of Texas / southern NM / Oklahoma.

2. A history of the state through 2000, incorporating canon sources (Red Star/Lone Star, Challenge #27 I think) + filling in the blanks (hopefully Chico will let me crib from his stuff as well). I especially want to detail the history after the exchanges through the collapse of state and Federal authority and the rise of the Texian Legion (head canon: a "rogue" Texas State Guard brigade + corrupt Smith county sheriff + OMG gang(s) organize to keep out refugees and marauding refugees from Houston / Beaumont / Shreveport and the Texian Legion's defeat of a US division (think: Battle of the Teutoburg Forest where "allied Germans" ambushed 2 Roman legions).

3. Detailing out various things (what's going on in the Panhandle? What happened to the 30,000 nuclear pits stored at Pantex? Only a small part of DFW would have been destroyed / damaged by the Carswell strike, what happened to it?

4. Town by town descriptions.

5. Major and minor faction details not covered in canon sources.

[Ewan]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

Culmination of a bunch of things.

1. A v1 style color map of Texas / southern NM / Oklahoma.

2. A history of the state through 2000, incorporating canon sources (Red Star/Lone Star, Challenge #27 I think) + filling in the blanks (hopefully Chico will let me crib from his stuff as well). I especially want to detail the history after the exchanges through the collapse of state and Federal authority and the rise of the Texian Legion (head canon: a "rogue" Texas State Guard brigade + corrupt Smith county sheriff + OMG gang(s) organize to keep out refugees and marauding refugees from Houston / Beaumont / Shreveport and the Texian Legion's defeat of a US division (think: Battle of the Teutoburg Forest where "allied Germans" ambushed 2 Roman legions).

3. Detailing out various things (what's going on in the Panhandle? What happened to the 30,000 nuclear pits stored at Pantex? Only a small part of DFW would have been destroyed / damaged by the Carswell strike, what happened to it?

4. Town by town descriptions.

5. Major and minor faction details not covered in canon sources.

Thank you and it looks like it’ll be a really good read.

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

Yeah, since GDW basically went with the 1988ish US ORBAT with no new units (AFAIK), my head canon says that draftees (and volunteers) were used to round out activated NG units (given that the whole NG round out brigade thing proved dubious during Desert Shield / Desert Storm) and replace combat losses for existing units. Training divisions were intended to (in head canon at least) to turn out trained classes which would then be directed to individual units in small batches. The conversion of these training orgs to actual combat units was an emergency measure in mid to late 1998.

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units? Are the Guard units left behind, and the barely-trained draftees are sent to the divisions mobilizing and going to Europe in the fall of '96? Surely, the existing Guard brigades and battalions would be easier and quicker to send to the front?

I agree that the "ready in a few weeks" promise of the round-out program didn't seem to work IRL 1990-91, but they're still better than starting from scratch.

[Adm.Lee]

To answer the original question, IMO, US conscription should have resumed about the time the US forces joined the war-- around October 1996. Delaying much past that would create a big hole in replacements in the spring and summer of 1997.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units?

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

I have some of these initial fills coming from the Inactive Ready reserve as well, especially in late 96 and early 97 before the flow of new recruits really starts flowing. These IRR troops are already fully trained and experienced, just needing some refresher training. (See my post above about how these guys were mis-used in Desert Storm!)

I'll write up a separate post on my thoughts on timing for the draft.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units? Are the Guard units left behind, and the barely-trained draftees are sent to the divisions mobilizing and going to Europe in the fall of '96? Surely, the existing Guard brigades and battalions would be easier and quicker to send to the front?

I agree that the "ready in a few weeks" promise of the round-out program didn't seem to work IRL 1990-91, but they're still better than starting from scratch.

Yes. The Round-out Brigades were....interesting in Desert Shield. Both 256th Mech (LA ARNG) and 48th Mech (GA ARNG) were alerted and called into federal service but did not deploy into Saudi. From those "in the know" the Regular Army said they could not meet requirements until longer train-ups, which when completed, the ground war was over.
State political figures and National Guard officers blamed bias from the Regular Army against the ARNG on the failure to meet deployment standards. From those "in the know" the truth was somewhere in between. That said, had the fighting been more intense and the ground war lasted much longer and with greater casualties both brigades as I understand it would have been put into the deployment pipeline.

Notice that in the 90's most of the ARNG mechanized brigades went away and almost all of the Army Reserve combat formations also went away.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by chico20854

I have some of these initial fills coming from the Inactive Ready reserve as well, especially in late 96 and early 97 before the flow of new recruits really starts flowing. These IRR troops are already fully trained and experienced, just needing some refresher training. (See my post above about how these guys were mis-used in Desert Storm!)

I'll write up a separate post on my thoughts on timing for the draft.

Interesting on filling in slots during the Twilight War compared with Desert Shield/Desert Storm and the process during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Totally different circumstances of course.
The Arkansas ARNG's 39th Infantry BCT was alerted for deployment during OIF. Approximately 10% of the slots in the Brigade were unfilled (IIRC). Many were filled from the Vermont ARNG, others from other state ARNG units that were not slated for deployment and an unknown number from IRR.

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

OK, so no differently than filling gaps in the regular units, other than assuming there are more gaps in the NG units. I misunderstood your point.

I think we're also drifting into the idea that IRR reservists would be used to fill in the regular formations, while mobilizing the Guard's formations would take long enough (months) that draftees would be able to cover shortfalls there.

[Claidheamh]

In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoD’s analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the “New National Defense Act”, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea.

Having just turned 24 in Nov 96, the impact of these dates and call-ups hits home in an all new way.

[bash]

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by bash

...
I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

Whereas, I've assumed that combat troops too wounded to continue in the line would be rotated to those same kind of rear positions.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by bash

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

That is an intriguing concept. I wonder if any such system has been put into practice by a wartime army in the modern era.

Originally Posted by bash

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

Great point. There's definitely historical precedent for something like that in the 20th century. For a number of reasons, during the 1930s, the USA was in the grips of isolationist sentiment. Most Americans were shocked and appalled by Japanese aggression in China and Nazi German aggression in central Europe, but didn't want the USA to get involved because we had our own problems to deal with (namely, the Great Depression). FDR, on the other hand, was an internationalist who believed that the USA had a duty to stand up for democracy overseas. He needed a fait accompli to put the USA on a war footing without angering the American public. In 1940, FDR convinced Congress to activate a peacetime draft by promising that draftees would not be deployed overseas. Enough folks in Congress either played dumb or were legitimately fooled into voting for it that it passed. The public largely accepted the peacetime draft because it created paying jobs at a time when the unemployment rate was still really high.

The USA in the mid-1990s was still slightly hung over from the last draft (Vietnam) but I could see Congress passing a conditional draft similar to that instituted by the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 after the Soviets invade China.

Originally Posted by bash

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

Indeed, but skilled civilians would still need to learn the "army way" to do things, and that would take some time (but, to your point, probably less than the six weeks or whatever the duration of abbreviated basic training would be).

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Whereas, I've assumed that combat troops too wounded to continue in the line would be rotated to those same kind of rear positions.

That would absolutely be the case once the USA was at war and started to accumulate WIA personnel. Later in the war, once the logistical chain between the US and various foreign theaters of operations were strained/severed, most military support jobs like cooking, maintaining some equipment, etc., would be handed over to local civilian "contractors" so that US soldiers who'd normally do those sorts of things could be shifted to frontline combat duty.

-

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by bash

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

That's a variant of one of the many things Russia has done:

1. Replace immediate combat losses with in-theater troops with non-combat roles and throw them into combat.

2. Scavenge non-theater units for combat replacements (including, in some cases, strategic rocket forces troops - one day you are manning a mobile ICBM, the next day, you are carrying a rifle and trying to advance).

3. Press ganging locals (including Ukrainians) into the military and sending them forward as fodder with 1-2 days of training.

4. Recruiting convicts with promises of freedom.

5. Drafting.

At some point, a desperate US would have done all of the above as well.