Twilight War Regions

[Mohoender]

I started with France and Belgium (on another thread) but I figured it would be nice to have every regions in a single thread. I'll start with Portugal and Spain. My daughter was caughing tonight and she woke me up at 2:00am. As I didn't feel like going back to bed I typed it.

I'll see what the next one will be.

[Mohoender]

Both Portugal and Spain hold a special position during the Twilight War as both, despite being members of NATO, don’t see any fighting near their respective soils.
Prior to the conflict, Portugal had engaged in a huge modernization of its civilian infrastructures, building highways, modernizing airports, harbors and industrial network around Lisbon and Porto. The most impressive of this achievement was open to the public only two years before the war: it is the bridge “Vasco de Gamma” that crosses the Tage River. Achieved before the universal exhibition of 1998, it was, until its destruction, the longest bridge of Europe. In addition, still turning away from its recent past, Portugal was the only member of NATO to maintain the reduction of its army. Older equipments were being stored instead of being scrapped and plans were made to rebuild the army but, in 1999, the Portuguese Armed Forces had never been so small.
Spain, for its part, had experienced civil unrest in the Basque Region since 1996 and the assassination of José MarÃ*a Aznar López by the ETA. This resulted in the cancellation of the election (Felipe González Márquez being confirmed to office under an initiative taken by the Congreso de los Diputados) and the establishment of a state of emergency that was still in effect when the Twilight War started. The measures taken in 1996 are soon approved by the Cortes Generales and many are still in effect when the war starts over Europe. In 2000, the Spanish military had been engaged in a mild guerilla war for four years and, if the country had remained a democracy, a state of emergency is still in effect over the Basque region. In addition, the armed forces, much like the country itself, had been engaged in a huge modernization and expansion program while the Consejo de Ministros has been jointly presided by the president and the king for the last four years.
Both Portugal and Spain, active members of NATO, remain only mildly involved during the first stage of the conflict. Several units from both countries have been sent to the frontline in respect of the treaty but no strike had touched any of them. If France is hit several times France, Portugal and Spain remain outside of Moscow’s reach. Their respective industries had been turned to war production and by early 2003 both countries are essential to the NATO supply network over Europe. In addition, outside of ETA activities, both countries are surprisingly stable and the population remains highly supportive of the war effort, taking the few privations with good will.
The situation changes in mid-2003 when NATO decides upon the use of tactical nuclear weapons. In early fall both Portugal and Spain find themselves largely involved in the offensive that has been launched in Italy. Their naval forces are forming a good part of the Task Force supporting the operation and several of their best units are spearheading the attack, landing in Italy. They perform well but the loss of naval supremacy (The loss of the Principe de Asturias is a huge blow to the Spanish Navy) hamper their action and the land operation fails, essentially because of insufficient supplies. Finally both countries are subjected to several nuclear strikes in 2004.
A single missile is targeted at Portugal but the effects are devastating. A MIRV (550kt) hit the refinery located 10 km north of Porto, destroying the modern commercial harbor, the airport and damaging the northern quarters and the wealthy coastal area “da Foz”. Nevertheless, despite extended damages the city survives with the Eiffel Bridge still standing intact. Four more isolated MIRV (550kt each) hit Coimbra (and the Monte Real air base nearby), Montijo, Setubal and Sintra while the last five wreak havoc on Lisbon itself. Another missile, launched from a submarine is targeted at the Azores, hitting the islands with 4 MIRV (100kt each). These 4 MIRV are all targeted at Terceira Island and they destroy both cities along with Lajes Field (the main US air base on Portuguese soil).



As the dust settle, central government has vanished, the country has lost 40% of its population and unrest is spreading fast. Die-hard communist that have been living in Alentejo and Algarve rise up and form a number of soviets, seizing power where they can and taking control of Beja with its airbase. This is presented as a great victory by Portuguese communists but they take control of an empty shell as most aircrafts had been evacuated to Braga, Bragança and Vila Real. Soon, the communists lose control and soviets turn to marauder while chaos spread to the central region. Surviving cities and villages are raided and, often, the towns that survive still have standing medieval walls.
The Região Norte, which is more lightly damaged (despite almost a million casualties) and which is more densely populated takes immediate action. The local government declares independence and deploys what troops and GNR it has available. In addition, people’s militias are formed under the authority of land lords and are charged with the enforcement of daily security. Abuses are not unknown of but they remain reasonable. A month later, the new government takes control of the Baixo Vouga and Dão-Lafões sub-regions extending its influence slightly to the south and bringing half a million more people under its protection. Porto city remains important as its wineries are turned to alcohol production and as its ancient docks are serviceable for small ships but the city lose some of its influence when the government is moved to Braga. Eight months later, in 2005, Região Norte joins with the Spanish region of Galicia, the new entity takes the name of “Free Republic of Galicia” and its capital is moved again, the government settling in the city of Vigo.
While Portugal is hit several times, Spain suffers an even worse fate as many of its major cities are subjected to nuclear attacks. When the strike is over 11 Spanish cities have vanished: Barcelona, Cádiz, Cartagena, Gijón, La Coruña, Málaga, Madrid and its surroundings, Palma, Tarragona, Valencia and Zaragoza. Central government is gone, the king has been killed and a fair part of the army is fighting abroad, leaving the local authorities with insufficient means of action. With no power supply and modern communications down, most cities turn to themselves, establishing as many independent local governments. What military units remain is mobilized and local commanders take oath to the various local authorities. Everywhere, Guardia Civil units are expanded, accepting whoever wants to enlist and soon it is difficult to distinct them from bandits and marauders.
By mid-2005, chaos has spread to most of Spain. Cities and their immediate surroundings are pretty much safe but tensions between them are slowly increasing while Guardia Civil units are often sent out on brutal raiding missions. Electricity, except for tiny local productions, is a long gone memory and no one has the means to reestablish it. On one hand, the Basque region and the western Pyreneans are now in open Civil War. On the other hand, Galicia has joined with the northern part of Portugal. This progressive decay continues into 2006 except for Catalunya. Galvanized by their nationalistic feelings, people there have managed to regain control of the region and declare independence, establishing their capital at Berga. Having a number of military units at hand, the government closes the border, seizing the province of Huesca in the process, taking control of several small river power plants that will prove instrumental in its survival. Finally, within a month of its independence the new government establishes a citizenship rule based on ethnic background. Spanish people from anywhere in Spain are immediately expelled and brought to the province borders (wild executions are not unheard of). Spanish people who can prove that they were living in the province prior to the war are allowed to stay but they are not granted full citizenship: they are not allowed to several jobs (especially administrative and power position) while factories of strategic importance belonging to non-Catalan are taken over by the provincial government. However, full citizenship is granted to people of Catalan descent. For reason of convenience the Spanish language is still tolerated but Catalan becomes the official language.


Several month later, in 2008, the situation remain that throughout the Iberian peninsula. Roving bans of Guardia Civil continue raiding most of the countryside. Electricity remains a memory almost everywhere and the surviving infrastructures are experiencing fast decay. The only exception is that of Galicia where a number of dam on the Douro River have been put back on line. Several more cities have been damaged to a large extend and they are now largely abandoned while open civil war is still taking place over the Basque region. Cities are increasingly hostile toward each other and the only authority exercising some kind of national control is the Catholic Church of Spain which constantly expends its influence under the authority of Archbishop Felipe Gúzman who rules from Sevilla. The Holy Inquisition has been revived in Rome and a few inquisitors have been sent to Spain. On occasions, they travel from cities to cities but so far they don’t meet with a warm welcome and the Archbishop limit their action.
Catalunya is the other exception but, despite strong popular support, the government remains unable to repair the much needed infrastructures and it is currently looking for outside help. As a result, negotiations are carried out with the Franco-Belgian Union but they have yet to come to their conclusion.

[Mohoender]

When the Twilight War begins, the Kingdom of Netherlands is among the first NATO members to fully support the US decision to answer Germany’s call for help. Over the past decade, the Dutch Army slightly increased its size, mobilization procedures had been improved and within days of the German call, a Dutch Corps is assembled and sent east. In addition, several air force units are rebased to Germany.
Later, as fighting becomes increasingly bitter, the Dutch dedication to the War doesn’t faint and reinforcements are constantly sent out while reserve units are created to take duties at home and behind the lines. The navy is also doing its share and while its losses during the first Atlantic Campaign had been high this doesn’t result from a lack of competence but rather from outstanding behaviours.
During a single engagement the Frigate “Jan van Brakel�, covering the retreat of the damaged aircraft carrier “Nimitz�, faced alone one of the Slava-class cruiser of the Warsaw Pact. The engagement lasted for two hours, allowing the “Nimitz� to escape unarmed and, at the end, the Slava-class cruiser was forced to retreat with extended damages. The frigate was so crippled that she had lost half of her crew along with her Command Bridge and part of her bow. Nevertheless, some of her weapon systems were still firing at the cruiser while it was retreating before reinforcements could reach the spot. At last, most survivors were transferred on the Belgian frigate “Wandelaar� while the “Jan van Brakel� was slowly brought back to port. She was lost before she could reach Amsterdam.
When the nukes start to fall, the kingdom is among the primary targets and its major cities are all hit, sometimes repeatedly. Amsterdam, Breda, Dordrecht, Eindhoven, Haarlem, Nimegen, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht and Zaanstadt are all destroyed. The dikes have been reduced to rubble or have sustained extensive damages and the low lands are flooded. In the outcome, the level of casualties in the Netherlands is among the highest of Europe but that doesn’t decide Queen Beatrix to end her engagement to NATO. The troops are maintained in place, fighting with rage whenever they are encountered.
This engagement only stops in 2005 with the French invasion of the southern part of the country. The Dutch are on their knees and what little troops are available to them cannot put up more than token resistance. Queen Beatrix asks for help and support to her NATO partner. Canada, Germany, Norway and UK answer with what little forces they have but the US joint chief of staff, despite giving its verbal support, orders two US brigades to remain where they are. Outraged one of the US commander, still obeying orders, informs the Dutch government of his instructions. The Queen and her surviving ministers, residing in England, are stunned and, on the next day, they order all Dutch units to withdraw from combat and to head back toward the country in order to face the Franco-Belgian threat. Again, US authorities don’t give them a hand but the British do their best to help their return.
At last, what troops gather to the Netherlands can do very little but they are enough to attempt organizing what is left of the country. Units are taking cantonments in several of the surviving cities and they engage in security duties. Nowadays, they are still facing regular incursion by marauders but they have brought at least a limited stability. The government recently moved back to Groningen while the surviving ships are now stationed in the small harbour of Harlingen. A few oil rigs have been secured in the North Sea allowing for a trickle of oil to be produced but most of it is supplied to the few aircrafts still operating from Leeuwarden. The Dutch are still lacking in everything and electricity production is non existent but, outside of foreign marauders, the country can be considered organized, the population taking the situation with patience and some kind of philosophy.

[Kellhound]

A couple ideas for Spain.
-There are many small electricity production facilities on the many small rivers of the Pyrenees, mostly in Aragon. Some could even be expanded to supply small towns (a few already are for small hamlets), and base cantonments.
-Right wing parties would give some trouble in your scenario after their leader is killed. Maybe not civil-war-level, but high enough in the political level. It's a tradition here, for "left" and "right" (traditional meaning was lost long ago ) to be as antagonistic as possible. These will be very reactionary to a Catalan independence (possible guerrilla scenario?), and somewhat less in Galicia (they almost conder it "their turf").
Our political scene is... complicated even for us. That's why I try to ignore it
-In the target list for Spain, Tarragona was higher in the list than some of the others you mention. Then, Catalonia capital could be Berga, a classic (one of them) of the most radical nationalists.
Unless you want to leave the refineries and chemical industry intact for some dark purpose, of course.

Maybe Marc can add something more.

Your scenario leaves the Canary Islands (and the several military and naval units there) mostly intact. A temping but difficult target for Morocco and assorted pirates, and a stepping stone for trans-Atlantic travel and commerce.
The same goes for Madeira and Cabo Verde.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Kellhound

A couple ideas for Spain.
-There are many small electricity production facilities on the many small rivers of the Pyrenees, mostly in Aragon. Some could even be expanded to supply small towns (a few already are for small hamlets), and base cantonments.

I didn't know that but I will modify some of the text accordingly. I have spent twenty years (at least 2 month a year) in Portugal but don't know much about Spain outside of regular crossing. By the way you'll find the same thing on the French side of the Pyreneans.

Originally Posted by Kellhound

-Right wing parties would give some trouble in your scenario after their leader is killed. Maybe not civil-war-level, but high enough in the political level. It's a tradition here, for "left" and "right" (traditional meaning was lost long ago ) to be as antagonistic as possible. These will be very reactionary to a Catalan independence (possible guerrilla scenario?), and somewhat less in Galicia (they almost conder it "their turf").
Our political scene is... complicated even for us. That's why I try to ignore it

I definitely agree to that and that's what I wanted to imply. Nevertheless, I didn't want to develop it as it was not entirely relevant to the game.

Originally Posted by Kellhound

-In the target list for Spain, Tarragona was higher in the list than some of the others you mention. Then, Catalonia capital could be Berga, a classic (one of them) of the most radical nationalists.
Unless you want to leave the refineries and chemical industry intact for some dark purpose, of course.

As you insist I'll be happy to blow Tarragona (I had insuficient informations on the city). I'll go for Berga as you know more about this than I'll ever do.

Originally Posted by Kellhound

Maybe Marc can add something more.

I truly hope he will. always apreciated his various comments.

Originally Posted by Kellhound

Your scenario leaves the Canary Islands (and the several military and naval units there) mostly intact. A temping but difficult target for Morocco and assorted pirates, and a stepping stone for trans-Atlantic travel and commerce.
The same goes for Madeira and Cabo Verde.

Cabo Verde being part of Africa (and an independent country) I'll adress it later. I knew about the Canarias and it was a mistake on my part. Nevertheless, I leave them alone for now. I already blew up the base on the Azores and that is enough. Madeira was left aside on purpose for exactly what you imply. Nevertheless, all these islands because of the specific location deserve some special attention and I will think of it later. May be I'll do a post on Atlantic Remote Islands (Madeira, Canarias, Cabo Verde, St Helena...).

[Marc]

Bona nit!

Ei Mohoender! I'm back again after holidays and I'm wishing to read the last version of your timeline. I have still one entire week of holidays that I will spend at home, so I will have enough time to take a closer look to your work.
Anyway, I will start wiht this thread and leave the others for the night.

Originally Posted by Kellhound

-In the target list for Spain, Tarragona was higher in the list than some of the others you mention.

I'm afraid Kellhound is right... you must destroy the Reus-Tarragona area. In our group discussion about the situation of Spain in a Twilight background, the petrochemical industry and the dock/port facilities in this area are at the top of the list. So, blow them up.

Originally Posted by Kellhound

A couple ideas for Spain.
-There are many small electricity production facilities on the many small rivers of the Pyrenees, mostly in Aragon. Some could even be expanded to supply small towns (a few already are for small hamlets), and base cantonments.

A very plausible situation. I agree with Kellhound. Mmmmm...And it would be an interesting area where to develop a game/adventure.

Originally Posted by Kellhound

-Right wing parties would give some trouble in your scenario after their leader is killed. Maybe not civil-war-level, but high enough in the political level. It's a tradition here, for "left" and "right" (traditional meaning was lost long ago ) to be as antagonistic as possible. These will be very reactionary to a Catalan independence (possible guerrilla scenario?), and somewhat less in -In the target list for Spain, Tarragona was higher in the list than some of the others you mention. Galicia (they almost conder it "their turf").
Our political scene is... complicated even for us. That's why I try to ignore it

In essence, I agree with Kellhound, too. I'm trying to ignore our political escene, too. But without success for the moment... Sometimes they are so noisy...

The independence of Catalonia is a strategic loss for Spain and could be an important cause to a limited civil-war state. I think that it's not easy to polarize the will of the catalans towards the unilateral declaration of independence. So, you must search a very good reason or the kind of desperate situation that would cause this declaration. Through history, our past conflicts in Spain are often more related to trying to change the entire political map of the country to make it a more suitable place for our interests than for gaining the independence. I only remember a single uprising that, eventually, pursued the independece from Spain and it was in the background of the Thirty Years War. And, even in that moment, the initial spark was not the independence but the anger caused by the excesses of Spanish troops in Catalonia while on route to fight the Frenchs. After the uprising, Catalonia proclaim her independece and looked for the French support as the only, desperate solution to avoid the Spanish retaliation. I think a similar situation could match your timeline. The excesses caused by the hastily expanded Guardia Civil forces of your timeline could do the job. As Kellhound stated, any movement of Catalonia towards the independence would have an inmediate response of the right wing parties, that would blame the government, a left wing government with Felipe González in your timeline, to be too soft. Possible certain areas of Spain, depending of their political balance, could declare themselves not tied to the legal goverment. A true Twilight:2000 situation...

[Marc]

About Portugal and Spain, a great work, Mohoender. I will continue with the last version of the timeline later.

As a minor point, I don't like the idea of the inquisitor. I think it's not plausible, though a religious authority trying to exercise a certain control over
a divided country could exist

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Marc

About Portugal and Spain, a great work, Mohoender. I will continue with the last version of the timeline later.

As a minor point, I don't like the idea of the inquisitor. I think it's not plausible, though a religious authority trying to exercise a certain control over
a divided country could exist

About Catalunya's independence trigerring a minor civil war. I will not do it. I agree that it is a strategic loss to Spain but this independence is made possible only because of the chaos and because people there think it as an aditional chance toward survival. I'm pretty sure that Catalunya comes under attack but this in my idea remain limited (but it will be useful when conducting PCs through the area). In fact, simply because the rest of Spain has other problems onto its hands and lack the military strength to react. Don't forget that Madrid is gone, central governement has ceased to exist and other regions are competing among each other (less competition might take place in Andalusia but that's far away). For Andalusia, there is no intelligent reason behind some more stability outside the fact that I fall in love with Seville. You can be certain that Spanish cities not to far from Catalunya are raiding the new country. Catalunya d'oesn't simply get its independence, it fights for it especially as it annexes the Huesca province (Aragon must not apreciate that move).

About the religious authority, I like the idea because I think it more than plausible (for Portugal as well). The extend of its control, however, is open to debate (even among myself). Nevertheless, priests have a strong point of reference to rally to and the Catholic church should remain united (at least in name). You might be right about the inquisition (I called it the Holy Inquisition not the Spanish Inquisition and therefore I should think a bit more about it: inquisitors could be around but not especially for Spain. Actually I already rewrote that part). I currently develop the situation in Italy and Italy has a Papal state with Rome intact. In fact, the new inquisition should come from there and it should be very different from the medieval one. Thinking of what you said, Cisnéros (whatever his name) should be in Rome and the new inquisition could well be a development of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (a somewhat inquisition with no judicial power as I see it). IMO Ratzinger would have made a great neo-inquisitor. That position is full of historical meaning and weight (especially in Spain where indeed it might not get such a warm welcome) but I'm fairly convinced that under the pressure of the Twilight War the Catholic Church could very well reactivate it. Actually, in the way I'm writing things John Paul II effectively dies in 2005 but the next pope is not Ratzinger. No chance that they ever elect a German with the Twilight war triggered by Germany (Gee what a weight for poor Germany which doesn't deserve that).

[Targan]

The inquisition still exists. I think they call it the Holy Office nowdays. They had a hand in controlling the Ecole Biblique, the organisation responsible originally for decyphering the Dead Sea Scrolls (and controlling access to the information derived from them).

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Targan

The inquisition still exists. I think they call it the Holy Office nowdays. They had a hand in controlling the Ecole Biblique, the organisation responsible originally for decyphering the Dead Sea Scrolls (and controlling access to the information derived from them).

You are right but "Holy office" has been dropped in 1965 and they adopted a new name : Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.

Funny how we get back to the same place. As I'm not that knowledgeable in the Catholic Church I didn't know. Making the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith the new inquisition simply seemed obvious to me (as I dislike Ratzinger to the highest point) and I had not done extensive research on it.

As a result, the Full Inquisition is only revived and the Prefect of the congregation simply takes the name of Grand Inquisitor again. In addition, they simply have to revert to one their previous name: Supreme Sacred Congregation of the Roman and Universal Inquisition or Holy Office of the Inquisition. They might also adopt a new one: Sacred Congregation of the Roman and Universal Inquisition (I like that one better)

Thanks Targ, that helped greatly and I would not have thought about checking it that far on my own.

[Legbreaker]

I wonder how active the church would be in the years after 2000? Would the "inquistion", or whatever it's named, recommence rooting out heretics, etc?
Would the church build up military forces to assist?
Perhaps another round of the Crusades would be in order?

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

I wonder how active the church would be in the years after 2000? Would the "inquistion", or whatever it's named, recommence rooting out heretics, etc?
Would the church build up military forces to assist?
Perhaps another round of the Crusades would be in order?

I haven't finished on it but here are my ideas behind the Papal state. The Pope is either in Rome (if the city was not destroyed) or in Avignon (if you chose to blow up the holy Catholic city).

Assuming he is in Rome.

The Pope exert full control over the Lazio and may be Sardinia. he is backed by a professional Papal army which is fairly powerful by Twilight's standards. may be equal to a couple Brigades of light infantry, a horse cavalry guard, the Swiss body guard and, a small light armored element.

After the nukes start to fall, the original Papal State has been joined by Malta (now under the authority of the hospitalers Grand Master). With the Papal state, they have built a small but efficient navy composed of small ships: may be a corvette, several patrol craft, PBR and armed sailing ship. Not strong because of its ship that navy is powerful because it is very well disciplined and its sailors are dedicated to their task (after all the fight for the sake of God). Probably backed by France, they are engaged in a constant fight to end piracy coming from Northern Africa.

Outside the Lazio, the Catholic influence is only strong over the Iberian peninsula and with no doubt over Ireland. Nevertheless, the Archbishop of Spain is fully in charge and tensions exist with the bishop of Rome (the Pope).

In France, the catholic church is welcome as long as it doesn't contest state authority. France has established a kind of Laîc Inquisition of its own and you better not challange it weither you are the Pope or not. From what I heard on the news this morning we might be in the process of creating the roots of it (attention I was not paying attention and my interpretation might be entirely wrrong). Basically what I understood is that sects (the current fashionable word for faith) cannot by disbanded anymore if they are found guilty of con/bribery... However, sects might still be disbanded on the base of their belief which is forbidden by the French constitution (interesting debate in france for the near future).

The Catholic Church remains also influencial over Latin America at least in word. Nevertheless, the priest in Latin America are only safe as long as they don't challenge too much the drug cartels and the gangs (I wouldn't be surprised to have priests there engaged in drug production and some kind of slavery).

In the western world, the Catholic Church takes the form of what you find in the original game about Krakow. Priest influence is exherted only at the very local level and often in weird ways. If there is no priest, there is no Church.

In any organized country the Catholic Church remained what it was before the war, it still refers to Rome but direct contact might be rare. It is equally possible that the local bishop turned the church into a church of its own. The Twilight War is a perfect ground for heretics.

In the rest of the world (Africa, Asia, Middle-East...), Priest can be there but they are engaged in some kind of crusade with all the risks implied and all the possible perversion. A remote island in the Pacific can be ruled by a bloody priest advocating that Christ blood should be taken from where it comes: Manflesh (possibilities are endless).

One last point about the Catholic Church organization. The new Pope has appointed new Bishop when it was needed and when one can be identify (at the end of the adventures in Poland, the priest holding the Black Madona could well have become the new Bishop of Poland). Nevertheless, this authority is only nominal and the rest will depend on the local situation. The post-war Bishops are no more than boosted priest until they can carve their own are of influence. You might also have several self-appointed Bishops (or appointed by local strongmen) but these will always have one goal : get Papal approval. Until they do they are heretics.

Here are the ideas. They are open to debate but they are taken from the regular Catholic dogmata. The Catholic Church has followed its dogmata for now nearly 2000 years and a few nukes won't change this path. However, I don't think that the new Pope, given world situation, could be able to call for holy council (that could modify these dogmata).

[Mohoender]

Italia is experiencing a dramatic political crisis in the 1990’s and this ends with the collapse of the Italian Republic. Political scandals and corruption have plagued the first half of the 1990’s and all attempts at forming a new government have met with ultimate failure. In the end, the northern part of the country, under the leadership of the Lega Nord (Umberto Bossi), secedes in late 1996, taking the name of Padania.

That new state is officially recognized a few months later and the split goes one step further during the Italian National Conference taking place between January and March 1997. Padania itself is the now the most important of the Italian states as it inherits most of the industrial network along with a majority of the armed forces. Most importantly, almost 80% of the fleet rally the new state and that includes all major units: the aircraft carrier Giusepe Garibaldi, the helicopter cruiser Vittorio Veneto and the two Andrea Doria-class cruisers that had been put in reserve in 1992. Carried by a wide popular support, Umberto Bossi is elected president in May and his first move is to choose Ravenna to be the capital of the new state. He justifies this choice in his address to the nation along a few other things.
“Ravenna has been the capital city of the great Roman Empire and it should be ours today! If Piemonte and Lombardia are our lungs, Toscana and Veneto our brain, Emilia-Romagna should be our heart. All of you are the blood without which nothing could be possible. Padania is established for our future and it must be true to its present commitments. A modernization of our country, already delayed too long, is to be started and this will begin with the building of a new aircraft carrier to be named Conti di Cavour, a needed tool for Padania to remain true to her deep commitment to NATO.”

Four years later this has been put aside and Padania withdraws from NATO while work on the carrier has been delayed in favor of less onerous programs. When the war starts the “Conti de Cavour” is still in dry docks and works on it is far from being achieved.

As this is happening in the North, another state is established over the southern part of the peninsula. A left-wing coalition, named “Neo-Ulivo” and led by Romano Prodi (a man from the north) establishes the Napoli Republic with its capital at Napoli. Lacking the financial weight of the northern state this new republic, ruling over southern Italy and Sicily, is largely rural. Also admitted to NATO it cannot field more than a few under-strength units but it retain a huge strategic importance as it houses the US Naval Command for the Mediterranean. However, plagued by mafia, it’s government is fairly corrupt from the beginning and the level of corruption has increased when the Twilight War starts.

Finally, Lazio and Sardinia chose independence and form a state of their own under the leadership of former president Oscar Luigi Scalfaro. The man, a conservative and a staunch catholic, soon builds strong ties with Vatican City and Pope John Paul II. As a result, that state quickly becomes known as the “Papal State” even if these ties don’t change much in the daily life of the Roman population. As in the past, Romans seem not to care and life continues as if nothing had happened.

While both Padania and the Napoli Republic had been involved in the air strikes on Serbia, things change when Germany calls for help. Padania, being the location of huge anti-war protests chose to withdraw from NATO and all its units are called back. Nevertheless, the government pushes various military programs and the army receives more new equipments. In addition, work on the Conti di Cavour accelerates again.

The Napoli Republic, on the other hand, chose to remain true to NATO and after the attack in Norway it commits more troops to the Balkan. The Italians prove to be dedicated fighters but they lack proper equipments in adequate numbers and their presence puts an additional strain on the US as Washington is forced to supply them.

With the final involvement of Padania as an ally to Turkey, the Italian peninsula fully enters the war. Immediately after the sea action of June 27th, troops are deployed to all fronts. A small corps is deployed to the eastern border establishing well defended position there despite the lack of direct threat. As a matter of fact, in order to attack Padania from the Balkans, NATO forces would have to penetrate into Slovenia and neither Padania nor NATO seem willing to do so. The western border is an entirely different matter, however, and bitter fighting takes place between the Italians and the French on the Alps. Both sides are unable to come on top and after several weeks the opponents settle in well defended positions.

In Italy itself, Padanian forces quickly progress toward the south, taking Napoli in only ten days as the southern state forces fall back toward Sicily. Once they have reached the Messina Strait, the Padanian remain unable to land in Sicily as NATO naval forces represents too much of a threat while Napolitan forces deploy on very well prepared defensive position located on each side of the strait. NATO conducts several air strikes on the country, of course, but the available squadrons remain insufficient and this fails to entirely disrupt Italian production. However, important air raids are conducted on Liguria and the Riva Trigoso shipyard is hit, resulting in the Conti di Cavour’s being damaged beyond repair. Theses raids also result in dsiplacement of the Padanian Navy which is moved to the Adriatic Sea and the port of Trieste and Venice (later to Tarento) where it can be more adequately protected.

Most bitter fighting takes place in Austria, however, and especially in Tyrol where Padanian forces penetrate in early August, launching a surprise attack through the Alpine Passes. The Austrian Army faces that invasion of course but it can do little. Its land forces are insufficient and the Padanian Air Force has destroyed the Austrian aircrafts on the ground. Deprived of air support, the Austrians fall back and withdraw to the eastern part of the country, establishing strong defensive positions on a line stretching from Villach to Salzburg. The Stato Maggiore dell’Esercito chose to ignore that, establishes defenses of its own to protect its flank and push toward its true goal: Southern Germany and Munich.

By mid-month, Padanian units are entering Germany and continue their push toward Munich. They are faced with very little resistance at first but the Bundeswehr defenses slowly builds up as they progress in Bavaria. When they reached Munich suburbs they are challenged by German territorial units and the Padanian have to conduct some very harsh fighting. In November, they have failed to progress very far in the suburbs and they establish more solid position in prevision of the coming winter. At that moment, Padania occupies western Austria and the lands of southern Germany behind a line going from Lindau to Mühldorf.

While the most important Italian states are being dragged further in the war, the Papal State remains neutral but its military forces are mobilized, nevertheless, in both Lazio and Sardinia. Then, with 2002, the war takes a strange path for Italy. The Allies being now engaged on multiple fronts (Including Asia and the Middle East), NATO commits only limited forces to the Italian front and, there, the war settles in a Phoney War similar to the one that opposed Germany and France from September 1939 to May 1940. Except for daily air raids and occasional naval operations the area is somewhat quite. Military units suffer from inaction, some goods are increasingly difficult to find on the civilian market but as a whole, the entire Italian society functions almost as if it was at peace. People in the North are going to work and the occupation of South goes smoothly except for the daily arrest and regular execution of members of the Cosa Nostra, prosecuted under military jurisdictions.

The Italian Phoney War last until mid-2003 when NATO decides upon using tactical nuclear weapons. Peace has been signed with France; troops are leaving the French border for Germany and southern Italy when a major offensive is launched by NATO. This starts with major air strikes targeting Padanian production centers and army position in Southern Germany. A week later, with the Padanian air force badly weakened, a naval offensive is launched with the obvious goal of controlling the Adriatic and the sea-lane to Balkan’s harbors. In the meantime, major landings take place in southern Italy, in Calabria and Campania. Napolitan and US forces cross the Messina Strait into Calabria, driving north toward Cosenza. Further north, a large Ispano-Portuguese corps backed by US Special Forces is landing into the Gulf of Salerno. While the troops advancing into Calabria meet with little resistance, the ones in Campania face more difficulties. As soon as NATO troops land, Padania starts to withdraw from southern Germany and Austria, establishing new defensive position in the Alpine passes and rushing reinforcement to the South. NATO’s progression toward Napoli is slow and they have the surprise to be met with open hostility by the local population. Nevertheless, the Allies have reached Napoli, Avellino, Potenza and Matera when the second battle of Matapan occurs off the Greek Coast.

NATO has been informed that the Padanian and Turkish fleet are assembling off the Cape Matapan (Greece) in order to launch a combined attack that should sink the flower of the landing force actually cruising off the Italian Coast. A strike force is assembled in a hurry: it is composed of the Principe de Asturias with most major Spanish units, the flower of the Egyptian Navy, a small British group assembled around the HMS Ark Royal, and three US aircraft carriers (CV-67 JFK, CVN-65 Enterprise and CVN-70 Carl Vinson) while the Greeks will commit what they can. As a matter of fact, this Task Force looks very good but this is only true on paper as this fleet will prove to have several weaknesses. First of all the Enterprise is sailing at a reduced speed (25 knots only) but most important, except for the Principe de Asturias, the carriers’ air complement is insufficient. Several fighter squadrons are missing and there are too few F-14s. In addition, these same F-14s have not been adequately supplied in Phoenix missiles and, outside of a sole Belknap cruiser, the escort fleet is essentially composed of frigates, a configuration that will prove its limit before the end of the Battle. Despite these weaknesses, the battle goes well for two days and NATO forces are coming on top. They have lost a number of Frigate and the Carl Vinson, suffering important damages have been withdrawn from the battle on the first day. The weakened fighter complement has managed to repel several attacks conducted by Padanian and Turkish air forces but they are now short in Phoenix. The only dark point comes from the accompanying submarines which have all been destroyed by the Italian and Turkish subs. In fact, the smaller types used by these navies proved superior in these shallow waters but are no serious threat to the surface ships. The situation changes on the beginning of the third day while NATO prepare for the final blow. Most major Turkish units have been sunk or withdrawn and Padania is left with a single cruiser, the Andrea Doria. Its sister ship, the Caio Duilio, has been lost on the first day, the Vittorio Veneto was sunk on the last evening and the Giusepe Garibaldi has been burning for a little more than 24 hours. Therefore, when the Soviet Black Sea Fleet shows up, the NATO task force is basically taken with its pants down. The cruiser Slava, backed by several aircraft from the naval aviation, immediately moves against the Enterprise. Hit by no less than 26 missiles with most of the carrier aviation under replenishment, the huge ship is lost in 20 minutes with all hands. The battle continues for the entire day and losses are huge on both sides. The HMS Ark Royal is sunk before sun down while the Belknap cruiser has been destroyed before noon. On NATO’s side, the JFK is the last ship to put up a fight, covering the retreat of the survivors. She is sunk by soviet destroyers but takes two major soviet units with her as her aviation sink the Moskva and inflicts major damages to the Slava. That last ship is lost during a storm on her way back to Sebastopol (the Enterprise has been avenged) while the Soviets are left with their venerable Kynda-class cruisers, a single Kara, 2 Kashin-class destroyers and several frigates. The Principe de Asturias could have escaped, despite huge damages, but she is intercepted by two Soviet submarines on her way out.

NATO has lost supremacy in the Mediterranean and will never recover it. Neither of the opponents is able to claim it, however, but that sea is now closed to regular shipping and any naval move will need substantial escorts until times where NATO can commit a new Task Force to the area. Then, the first consequence is to disrupt regular supply toward the ground forces fighting in Italy, slowing done the offensive and ultimately resulting in it to stop as these forces are now unable to break the defensive line established south of L’Aquila in the Abruzzo. In a last attempt to gain the upper hand in the Italian peninsula NATO launches a number of nuclear attack in early 2004, destroying Bologna, Genova, La Spezia, Milano and Torino before this attack is suspended. Most Padanian industry is indeed destroyed by these strikes but they don’t result in the dissolution of the state and have unexpected consequences. Padanian will to fight is reinforced despite supply shortages. In the north people from the cities are welcomed to the countryside while NATO forces are facing open hostility from Italians who rise against the legal authorities everywhere. At last, the final outcome of the nuking of the north is the fall of the Napoli Republic, widespread chaos to the South and the suspension of all military operations as NATO forces are forced to settle in military cantonments besieged by hostile countryside and populations.

The last military action in Italy occurs in late 2005 when NATO attempt to break through the Alpine passes into the Pô valley. Padanian forces are strongly entrenched, however, and NATO needlessly loses precious men and equipments in that futile attempt.

As all this is happening, the Papal state maintains its neutrality at all cost, sending food and medical aid to both sides. Then, in February 2005, Pope John Paul II dies from influenza as, given the general situation, he refuses that Vatican distract any of its doctor to take care of him. The election of the next Pope proves difficult and last for three weeks before the white smoke rise above Vatican City. Camillo Ruini has been elected and takes the name of Pius XIII as a reference to the last Pope to have reigned during a global conflict.

Nowadays, Italy has taken a face of its own with four official states but only three being functional. Among them, the most venerable is the Serenissima Republica di San Marino, the oldest constitutional republic in the world (founded in 301A.D.). This small country should have disappeared but it survived under the wise leadership of its Captain-Regent. Reviving the old rule of enrolling one son per family, it rebuilt a fairly strong Army Militia that still represents a fair defensive force. Building simple power plants San Marino gets access to limited electricity. Finally, giving its past history, the Captain-Regent also revived the close ties that the Republic had with the Vatican, becoming a Catholic stronghold to the North.

The Papal state is another important component of Twilight War Italy, ruling over the Lazio and Sardinia. For defense Pope Pius XIII can count on a fairly strong Papal army which is established on defensive positions at the borders. Swiss Guards are operating in Rome itself while a strong Carabinieri corps is acting as internal security. In case of emergency, the civilian authorities can raise a militia but this is not armed if the Papal state doesn’t come under attack. As always, the population of Rome is finding its way around and the holy city gets everything possible in terms of luxuries and pleasures, including a fair number of prostitutes. However, the Catholic rule is strongly enforced in the Lazio, outside of Rome. Church taxes are high and the revived Holy Inquisition is ever watching. Holding a communication device without permit (a substantial gift will get you that permit) is punished by forced labor. Muslims are chased down and executed as enemies of the Church. These rules are more lightly enforced in Sardinia, however. For income, the Papal state can count on several mines located in Sardinia, on a fairly decent but limited power supply and on a few industries (essentially ammunitions and spare parts mostly sold to Padania).

In 2005, Malta comes under the leadership of the Grand Master of the Knight Hospitalers. The Grand Master first move is to take an oath toward the new Pope taking the Papal navy in charge as a result of it. In three years they have built a fairly strong navy (second only to the French) composed of a number of small combat ships reinforced by several armed sail boats. Operating from La Valette, Cagliari and Ostia, this navy is constantly patrolling the Mediterranean, fighting Muslim pirates and providing escort to Catholic shipping. Recently, the Grand Master managed to get France support in exchange for regular escort to French cargo, releasing the French navy for more important duties.

Padania, however, is in a bad shape but still can count as organized. Hit by a number of nukes, entire regions are now left alone while the capital was moved to Venezia. Power supplies are mostly inexistent, industries are all destroyed (the surviving ones being damaged by the EMP attack of 2005) and communications are difficult at best but people are living under fairly good conditions. Cities are depleted and most are now living in the country side but order is maintained by a still strong military and several Carabinieri units. The Napoli Republic, for her part, has vanished and the lands south of L’Aquila have fallen to chaos. Cosa Nostra is again very powerful, foreign NATO units have settled in military cantonments and only a few communities remain organized.

[Mohoender]

Tensions put their marks on the region long before the war when divergences start to appear in 1995 between Turkey and the USA. The Iraqi Kurds had been instrumental in the assassination of Saddam Hussein and the US administration grants them full international recognition as a result of this action. Turkey had fought the Kurds for years now, and this move displeases them to the highest level as it provides the Kurds with a country of their own, and strengthens their claims on eastern Turkey. Nevertheless, after a long negotiation, the Turkish government reluctantly agrees to the new situation, also stating that it retains the right to react to Kurdish terrorist actions. This statement becomes a reality on the next year when “Operation Hawk� is launched against Kurdish PKK in Turkey. Turkish forces, Army and Jandarma alike, are highly successful but the offensive turns short when PKK combatants seek refuge in the newly established Kurdish Republic of Iraq. Turkey protests to the UN and asks the Kurdish government to allow its troops to pursue PKK fighters over its territory. Despite initial verbal support to Turkey, Washington sides with the Kurds and back their refusal of the Turkish demands.

Things get worse on the next year when the new US administration asks the Turks to allow them to supply the Kurds through their territory. Ankara simply refuses with no more explanations and even ban US aircraft en route for Kirkuk Air Base to land on their soil. As retaliation, in September, when the Turks start to bomb PKK position in Iraqi Kurdistan and in violation of Kurdish sovereignty, Washington delivers a fair number of stingers and several anti-aircrafts systems (MIM-23 Hawks and Avengers) to Irbil. Over the next month 9 Turkish aircrafts are destroyed and the Turkish population, outraged, demonstrates everyday. Protestations continue to grow until November 7th when the US embassy in Ankara is shelled by multiple mortar rounds. These rounds make no victims outside of a young Marine who is lightly wounded but Washington asks for those guilty of that attack to be arrested. On the next day, the Turkish government is disavowed and Prime Minister Ahmet Mesut Yilmaz is forced out of office while popular pressure brings back Necmettin Erbakan to the country’s leadership (he was earlier pressured by the military to step down). This time, Erbakan is granted full support from the Army and on Christmas Eve, that same Army (turning away from the path initiated by Atatürk) allows for the constitution to be amended, dropping the statement on the state being secular. On December 26th, Turkey withdraws from NATO and US troops are asked to leave the country within three months.

In early 1998, Ankara organizes the first D8 summit (Developing Eight) as a follow up to the creation of this group that took place on June 15th 1997. Three weeks later, Turkey signs a technical collaboration agreement with Iran (including the newly constituted Islamic Republic of Iraq), sending technicians and engineers to that country and providing spare parts that are needed for the full rebuilding of the Iranian Air Force. Washington and Israel complain while the while the White House Chief of Staff states that “Turkey should be qualified of what it truly is: a dishonored nation�. This is of no good but results in an immediate consequence: Iraq and Syria joins the Developing Eight. Verbal attacks continue between Ankara and Washington and, on May 12th, the US administration presents to the UN a resolution calling for an Embargo on Turkey. This is rejected by both China and Russia but NATO members along several US allies (Australia, Japan…) accept it and suspend commercial relations with Turkey. Ankara’s answer is limited but full of signification: the Bosphorus is now closed to NATO and US military shipping and that effectively limits the amount of supplies sent to countries around the Black Sea.

Following this, Turkey enters a relatively peaceful period that last until early 2001 when they arrest NATO military advisors fleeing Armenia and Georgia through Anatolia. Several of these advisors are Greeks and, on February 26, the Greek Prime Minister declares that “The unacceptable position of Turkey is fully responsible for NATO’s lack of success in the Balkans and for the defeat of its allies in the Caucasus, making Ankara a de facto ally of Moscow�. Other NATO members don’t follow the Greeks into this but that statements appeal to the Greek population. On the next month, Anti-turk demonstrations are held all over the country and in Cyprus. Several people of Turkish descents are killed by angry crowds and this evolves into open warfare when the Cypriot National Guard fires at Turkish units. Ankara reacts immediately by sending reinforcements and launching an offensive toward the Greek part of the island. When the Greeks get involved and divert several combat aircrafts in support of the Cypriot National Guard, Turkey declares war on Greece. On the next day, Turkish troops are crossing the border into eastern Macedonia and Thrace, quickly progressing toward Thessaloniki. Several greek units are taken out of the Balkan and Bulgarian fronts to face this new threat, effectively forcing NATO into a defensive posture. Nevertheless, at this point, the conflict remains local while Padania, because of its old rivalry with Greece, concludes a defense pact with Turkey. While Padania is not obligated by the pact to enter the Greco-Turkish war, Padania declares the war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more general war raging over Europe, promising to intervene on Turkey’s side if NATO tries to tip the balance in Greece’s favor. Within a week, Turkey declares a naval blockade against Greece and warns world’s shipping that the Aegean is now considered a war zone of its own.

The situation evolves again in June when it has become clear to NATO that, without aid, the Greek Army will have to fall back or be defeated. Indeed, Turkish pressure has constantly increased on the Greek left flank in Thrace while Cyprus is conquered and Greek losses are slowly becoming unacceptable. At last, on June 27th, a NATO convoy, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempts the run to the Greek port of Thessaloniki with badly needed ammunition and equipment. Fleet elements of the Padanian and Turkish Navy intercept the convoy and, in a confused night action off Thessaloniki, inflict substantial losses and escape virtually unharmed.

As convoy SG-46 closes on Thessloniki, at dusk, two Padanian frigates suddenly show up from behind while a small Turkish force appears to the east. They immediately fire at the escorting ship, sinking a US and a Spanish frigate and damaging the rest of the escort. As this confused fighting builds up, several fast Turkish attack boats leave the main formation and rush toward the cargos, ultimately sinking two-third of the convoy. When the Padanian and the Turks withdraw, they have sustained little damage and they have vanished in the dark, virtually unarmed.

Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes, bombing Smirne, Adalia and Istanbul in Turkey. On July 1st, Turkey declares war against NATO, fully entering the Twilight War. Turkish actions continue into 2002 but they fail to take the upper hand over the Greeks. The main Turkish success is the neutralization of the Greek navy in a series of combined action conducted with the Padanian navy. Later, when the war finally gets to the Middle East, Turkey increases the amount of supplies it sends to the region, opens its territory to Soviet truck convoys and commits more army units to the region. They increase the pressure on the Kurds and stop the NATO counter-offensive on a line stretching from Nuisaybin to Lake Van.

When the nukes start to fall over late summer 2003, Turkish positions are hit by several tactical nuclear devices and the Army begins a retreat toward its national territory. The Greek Army follows their steps and rush toward Istanbul, entering Turkish Thrace on October 2nd. Ultimately, the Greeks are stopped but not before they established well defended positions in Turkish Thrace.

In the meantime the Greek army pushes its advantage to the North, annexing Macedonia and progressing in Serbia. Pristina is taken on October 4th, Nis fall on October 9th and the Greek army closes on Belgrade when November comes, linking with NATO forces attacking from Bosnia and Croatia. However, the timely arrival of Soviet reinforcement put an end to this progression and the Greek Army quickly falls back toward Macedonia, stopping only north of Skopje and Kumanovo.

As a matter of fact, these actions represent the last true military actions on the part of both Greece and Turkey. In these two countries, the population already had had enough and civil unrest is quickly spreading while army units are taken from the front to perform internal security duties. Greek central government simply collapses and is replaced by several city states while the Turkish government loses control over vast regions in Anatolia.

Finally, when the first strategic strikes are conducted almost a year later, the region is almost entirely spared. No missiles are launched toward Greece while only two strikes are conducted by US on Turkey. The first one destroys Ankara and the civilian government, forcing a full taken over of civil affairs by the Army. The other one, targeted at Istanbul, misses the city, falls in the Bosphorus and doesn’t detonate. The Turkish army retrieves it, putting its hand on a single but strategically important nuclear device. Nevertheless, the region doesn’t escape the global consequences and as it saw severe regular fighting, casualties are important.

Nowadays, Greece is composed of several city states ruling over small portions of the country and backed by limited military forces. Among these states, Athens and Thessaloniki are the most important while fighting among the other takes place on a fairly regular base. Thessaloniki is the only one to remain faithful to the former Greek commitment to NATO but military operations have come to a halt. Macedonia is under occupation, military operations in Bulgaria are virtually non-existant and skirmishes only occasionally take place with Turkey. Outside of these city states, due to the very rough nature of Greece countryside, several villages and small towns have fall back on their own, not party to the city state system but independent, nevertheless. Finally, within Greece, Creta is an exception. The region is fully organized and almost fully functional despite very limited power supply. The population remains united and took over the island defense. Nowadays, the regular Cretan army is somewhat small but almost every adult man is a member of the Minoan Militia.

Turkey, for its part had to face major civil unrest and the central government, now in Istanbul, has lost control over most of central Anatolia. There, cities are largely deserted, armed bands are ever present, and the various villages, now behind perimeter defenses, are distrustful of each other. Central government controls only a few valleys as well as a few cities in the East because of valuable resources. These places live under strict martial law while the civilians exploit raw materials that are brought back to Alessandretta and Mersin under the protection of heavily armored trains. Elsewhere, army units have been deployed to the lands still under state control and perform security duties, allowing the Turkish state to be functional despite the lack of proper power supply and the consequent loss of a majority of the industrial network. Fighting with marauders, Kurdish activists and Cypriot freedom fighters are occurring daily but within military controlled territories, life is bearable and can count as organized. Nevertheless, martial law is in effect nationwide but more lightly enforced than in the eastern valleys. Istanbul is a strange sight in the Twilight world as the city is intact and bristling with life and activity. If not for the little light at night and a few ruined buildings, one could swear that the city never experienced the war while the various Bazaars (the Grand Bazaar dating back to 1461) are the place to go.

[Mohoender]

This region of the world includes two big countries: Egypt and Sudan.

Sudan for its part has been in turmoil for a long time when the world’s situation starts to degenerate. It has been, in fact, fighting a bitter civil over the south since 1983. There, the government of Khartoum is opposed by the SPLA (Sudanese People’s Liberation Army) a numerous rebel group (50.000 combatants) that scores a number of victories all along the 1990’s, gradually pushing back governmental forces. Until 1992, however, these governmental forces conduct numerous raids in the Nubian region of the south, taking an estimated 200.000 people into slavery. Despite this, after 1993, several peace initiatives are pursued by Sudan’s neighbors but they all ultimately fail and fighting continues.

In 1998, elements of the SPLA even threaten to take the city of Wad Medani but this offensive fails and the front stabilizes to the south of that city. In a desperate need for victory and space, Khartoum’s administration diverts part of its forces from the front and launches what it believes will be an easy campaign, attacking pastoral tribes in the Darfur region. It is soon faced by Janjaweed Militias and evidence of war crimes is brought up to the world attention before the beginning of the Twilight War. Nevertheless, the war prevents any intervention from the UN and that conflict continues to these days, resulting in huge casualties, essentially from famine and epidemics. Eventually, casualties reach 60% of the pre-war population, leaving only about 15.800.000h in the entire country.

Today, Sudan is effectively divided in three with:
- Around 200.000 Fur in Darfur.*
- About 1 million Beja to to the North.*
- 7.1 million Arabs in Khartoum, on the Nile Valley and in the East to the coast.*
- 7.5 million Nubians to the South.*

The main government and the only one to receive full international recognition before the war is the As Sûdân which controls, Khartoum, the Nile Valley to the Egyptian border, the Gebel Abyad to the West, the Nubian desert to the coast with Port Sudan and the Blue Nile area. Despite having the most numerous and well organized military force, this state is facing increasing difficulties. The civil war prevents the exploitation of oil fields to the South, the EMP attack of 1995 fries the entire hydroelectric power system and the Twilight War effectively isolates Sudan. As a result, if the air force still maintains a few aircrafts, fuel reserves are very low. Similarly, the Army uses only its armored units in case of emergencies. Mobility is still provided by the replacement of fuel by alcohol (brewed from sugarcane) and oil (got mainly from peanuts) but reserves are insufficient for large scale operations. In order to gain additional mobility, the Army forms several mounted units (camels or horses) that are either independent or integrated to the regular brigades. In addition, while the Army is reduced to 31.400 men, the “Janjaweed” Militia is expanded to 14.000 men and sent in equal number to the West and to the South.

To the West the situation has become dramatic as no village remains intact and as cattle was decimated. Population has dropped to only 200.000 and these survivors are living under terrible conditions while rebellious movements continue to fight state forces, allowing for no rest to the area.

The situation to the South is better and the Republic of Nubia has been established in 2001. However, that state didn’t get international recognition outside of Africa and the government can’t do much for the populations which are mostly left alone, constantly threaten by marauding bands and armed groups coming from neighboring states. As a matter of fact, the government rules only over a few cities (The capital of Malakal, Juba, Nyala and Wau) and over the combat area located to the north, on the border with As Sûdân. The SPLA can still rely on about 30.000 dedicated fighters but these are mostly equipped with light weapons and, so far, they failed to break the state’s army line.

Fighting continues in Sudan while resources are all becoming scarce and the situation shows no sign of improvement at short term. In addition, the Sudanese Navy has lost all its motor patrol boat and the coasts are constantly the prey of pirates. Patrols are still conducted with sail boats but these sailors, when not involved with pirates can’t do much outside of a few miles around Port Sudan and its well defended fortifications.

* There are 200 ethnic groups in Sudan. Therefore, Fur stands for indigenous pastoral people of Darfur. Beja stands for nomadic Arabs from the North. Arabs are mostly Muslim city dwellers and Nubians are people of African decent in the South.

Egypt is experiencing a very different situation, finding itself among the most heavily destroyed countries on Earth. As for Sudan, the situation starts to deteriorate long before the war as the 1990’s see a growth of pro-Islamic groups within Egypt. The country doesn’t fall to civil war but terrorism increases to a point where weekly attacks are conducted at several targets: Copt’s interests, tourists, citizens trading with the West and state administrations. That puts a heavy weight on the Egyptian economy and, if not for the war, the country could have slipped slowly toward internal confrontation. Moreover, this threat results in Egypt experiencing a dramatic economical crisis as its income from tourism drops by 80%.

Then, the army is put onto full alert at least a year before the Twilight War and when the conflict occurs, Egypt is left with one thing to do: choose among the two sides involved. Faithful to its previous treaties, the government supports the Allies from the beginning, producing military goods and sending troops as soon as war reaches the Middle East. As a matter of fact, while much of the army and the National Guard remain at home, Cairo’s government assembles an expeditionary corps and sends it to Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

In 2003, when Matapan II occurs off the Greek coast, the Egyptian navy represents a substantial part of the Task Force with six frigates and 2 submarines involved. One of the subs is destroyed while the only frigate to leave the area intact to return to Alexandria is the “Dumyat”. Another one, the Descubierta-class “Al Nasser” had left the battle after only 24 hours because of extensive damages. She also made it to Alexandria but damages were so important that she sunk while towed to dry-dock. A few weeks before, the Egyptian corps had fought with bravery, holding the ground while greatly outnumbered, preventing the annihilation of a full Ally corps in the process.

When the Warsaw Pact starts to use strategic nuclear weapons, the depth of Egyptian involvement has not gone unnoticed and, while Israel is spared, that country is heavily targeted. In fact, when the nukes start to fall, Egyptian major cities (Alexandria, Aswân, Cairo, Damietta, El Falyûm, El Mensûra and El Minya) are all hit while multiple strikes effectively destroy the Suez Canal (along with Port Saïd and Suez), isolating the Mediterranean from the Red Sea again. Casualties immediately reach 80% and all state administrations are effectively destroyed, leaving the survivors with no immediate help to come and no hope that it will come ever soon. The Islamic movements are among the only one still capable of some reaction and, whenever they can, collaborating with Copt churches, they engage in local relief operations.

Two days later, the Aswân Dam breaks suddenly and explodes under the water pressure. A gigantic wave (100m high) is formed while more than 200 billions m3 of water runs down the stream of the Nile River at a starting speed of 140km/h. Half an hour later, the wave wipes out the city of Idfu and Luxor is destroyed only an hour later. Two hours after the dam’s destruction, it is the turn of the city of Qena but, at this point, the Nile Rive makes two important turns and the flood starts to slow down. When the wave hits Sohâg it is now only 70m high but it still runs at 100km/h while it has been reduced to 50m high and runs at 80km/h when it reaches Asyût. From then, the flood enters a larger valley, loses much of its power, and when it reaches El Minya, the wave is only 15m high and runs at 40km/h (Minya’s destruction occurs seven hours after the dam’s explosion). Nevertheless, the flood continues its path to El Falyûm and Cairo. When it reaches the ravaged Egyptian capital city, 12 hours after the event at Aswân, the wave is still 7m high and the flood runs at 30km/h. From there, it dispersed in the entire Nile Delta, reaching the Mediterranean after a course of 16 hours and suddenly resulting in the water rising by 3m high almost everywhere. On its path, the water has destroyed a huge amount of arable lands, all cities and almost all villages. Under normal circumstances, many people could have been saved but when that occurred, the country had been hit very hard. Legal authorities are gone, military units are scattered and have lost contact with any type of commanding structures. As a result, people had been left where they were and they are taken care off on the spots. A few refugees have been moved to tents encampments but most are still in their damaged houses. When, the events is finally over, 85% of the survivors are killed and Egypt is ruined.**

As word, of this catastrophe comes to the Egyptian troops fighting in Jordan, left with no place to turn back to, most Egyptian soldiers take an oath to the King of Jordan and chose to continue the fight. Nowadays, they are still there, part in the conflict but established in cantonments. It seems that Egypt will never heal its wounds and the country is left with only 1.370.000 inhabitants (a little under 2% of its prewar population). Only two coastal cities survive on the Red Sea (Al Quseir and Bur Safâga) and they are heavily engaged in piracy, the core of their pirate fleets being 2 Hainan-class patrol craft and a single Osa-class patrol craft. An additional ship, a T-43 minesweeper, is docked at Bur Safâga and provides limited power supply to the city. Two other coastal cities had survived some times on the Mediterranean (Marsa Matrûh and Sidi Barrani) but more exposed than their Red Sea counterparts they fell to raiders and are now deserted and in ruins. However, the five great oasis of Egypt (Al Bahariya Ad Dakhla, El Kharga, Farafra and Siwa) are still occupied and fairly populated, reverting to their traditional role of trading outposts along commercial routes going from Sirte (Libya) to Khartoum. In addition, survivors (many Copts among them) have now settled along the Nile Valley, building small fortified villages and learning to live with that river again .Finally, some nomadic people are also living in Egypt with Beja tribes in the South, small Berber groups around the oasis of Siwa and members of the al-Rashayda tribe (Bedouin) on the Western Desert and in the Sinai. Of course, these people are living a very simple life as the country fell back to some kind of Middle-ages.

** If you want to know what a breaking dam can do, you can refer to the events at Malpasset, in France (4 million m3 killing 453) or at the Vajont in Italy (260 million m3 killing 2000 and destroying 5 towns and villages). Keep in mind that the Aswân event is 1000 time more important than that last exemple.

[Mohoender]

I modified my text on the destruction of Aswân Dam. As a result, you get a more precise account of that event. it was the result of researches done on the subject. After all I'm living about 6 to 8 miles from the desintegrated Dam at Malpasset.

Just for fun, I still don't get how they could have chosen this spot. The team was freed of all charges but if they had asked the elder about the meaning of that name they would have known.

Malpasset (in the language of Provence) means "fucked up land" or "bad land".!!

At the Vajont in Italy, it was about the same, the mountain that ended up in the lake, resulting in the 160m high wave was named the "Mont Toc". It means unstable mountain.

No more comments.

[Targan]

Mohoender, your discussion on the destructive power of dammed water being released is actually quite topical given the recent tensions between South Korea and North Korea over what some in the south regard as the use of water released from a dam as a weapon by North Korea.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Targan

Mohoender, your discussion on the destructive power of dammed water being released is actually quite topical given the recent tensions between South Korea and North Korea over what some in the south regard as the use of water released from a dam as a weapon by North Korea.

I had not noticed that. I don't really listen to what happens Koreas. Too far away.

[Mohoender]

This region of the world doesn’t experience direct fighting but it, nevertheless, slips into chaos. In Algeria, internal unrest has existed for years fueled by both the government and several Muslim radical movements engaged in a civil war. Attacks are tacking place on a regular basis and casualties are important but, with the Twilight War, these terrorist groups become even more active. The number of attacks increases dramatically in 2000 and their influence slowly spreads to neighboring countries: Morocco and Tunisia.

Morocco, which declares itself in favor of NATO in 2002, soon becomes a primary target of these groups and attacks are increasingly numerous, targeting universities, schools and various state institution. The army has been fully mobilized to face this new threat but remains unable to stop terrorist actions as it is now fighting on a two fronts. Indeed, with the repeated cancellation of referendums in Western Sahara, Polisario resume military actions in 2000 and attacks from the south have increased as well. When the nukes finally fall on Morocco in 2004, reducing Casablanca and Rabat to rubbles and decapitating the state, the country enters a full scale civil war which still mildly goes on.

In Algeria, the situation is even worse as the civil war has been going on since 1991 involving the Algerian Army, al-Jama'ah al-Islamiyah al-Musallaha (GIA), the Islamic Salvation Army (AIS) which is the armed component of al-Jabhah al-Islāmiyah lil-Inqādh (FIS) and the newly formed al-jamaa`atu l-salafiyyatu li l-da`wati wa l-qitaal (GSPC). All these groups are fighting among each other with the GSPC being mostly active in the South, the AIS controlling half of the guerrilla in the East and the West and the GIA being particularly active in the central region and in the capital city. The regular army is, then, fighting everywhere trying to overcome all these groups. However, when the nukes start to fall, the situation literally gets out of hand. The Algerian situation is special as only two cities holding oil and gas terminals are targeted (Oran and Skikda) while most of the nukes fall in more remote and lightly populated regions (Ghardaïa, Hassi-Messaoud, Laghouat, Ohanet, Ouargla, Tin Fouye and Touggourt) effectively putting an end to oil and gas production in the country. Deprived from its last source of income, the army left with little fuel, the Algerian government fall in a matter of weeks and the civil war heats up finally resulting in millions of casualties. It continues to these days but the Islamist groups have now lost control of various coastal cities, including Al Djazaïr, and of Kabylia to local governments.

Tunisia, for its part escapes most of the turmoil despite some incursions by radical Islamism. President Ben Ali remains in office but the army takes over most public affairs as soon as 1998 and the borders with Algeria and Tunisia are closed. Then, as the international situation worsen the weight on Tunisia increases and in 2004 the army is forced out of the southern part of the country. With quickly reducing supplies and an industrial network increasingly lacking in raw materials the government understands that it needs some foreign support to survive. Therefore, when France, Belgium and Luxemburg form the FBU in 2005, Tunisia immediately applies. Due its long and good relations with France, Tunisia is quickly accepted into the new Union, providing some industrial output in exchange for military supplies. In addition, when EMPs are finally massively used toward the end of that year, France also provides technical support, greatly helping Tunisian reconstruction.

Libya, much like Algeria, is targeted by the nukes and loses more than 70% of its population as a consequence of the attack. This is explained by the fact that the capital of Tripoli is hit along Tobruk and its oil terminal. Then, several warheads fall to the desert where they destroy most of the oil fields (Gialo, Natoora, Safir and Waha). Strangely, the oil field of Bel Hedan and Dahan are spared along with what remain of the oil terminal at As Sidrah. In addition, Muammar al-Gaddafi, who was in the desert at the time of attack, survives and quickly reorganizes the country with support from the army and the desert tribes. Within a few months, under his authority, the capital has been moved to Sirte and many coastal cities have been secured.

The poorest country of that region, Mauritania obviously escapes the nukes and the war but the chaos that follows and the collapse of global trade pushes the country to where it was a century earlier, before French colonization. Tensions that had been kept under control, suddenly surface again and the country goes through a terrible civil war after a number of military coup resulting in the collapse of the institutions. At last, the old cast system is reinstated and most of the population turns back to nomadic life and to the desert.

Nowadays, Morocco has ceased to exist as a kingdom and as a state. Berber tribes are again controlling most of the High Atlas, living either a nomadic life or a sedentary life centered on the rebuilt Ksours. Many among the surviving cities have been destroyed or deserted but some still exist within the land or on the coast: Essaouira, Fez, Marrakech, Meknes and Tangier. Large quarters have been deserted, old fortifications were completed by new ones and each city is under the control of a Pacha who has the upper hand on political, economical and military affairs. Among them, the land locked cities turned toward commerce and traditional productions but the coastal ones now favor piracy. Radical Islamist group are still active but they are widely opposed by the Berber tribes and they have been pushed back to a few remote areas. While talking about Morocco, one has to say something on Western Sahara. With the collapse of the Moroccan, rule and the destruction of the wall, that territory gained a de facto independence under the rule of Polisario. The region didn’t suffer much from the war and the population returned to a fully nomadic life. They are now living as nothing had happened and only gather twice a year around the now ruined city of Guelta Zemmur to discuss common policies among the tribes.

Life is more complicated in Algeria where the civil war is still going on and where assassinations and attacks occur daily. As a matter of fact, the few true surviving cities are located on the coast (Al Djazaïr, Annaba and Mostaganem), run by local authorities who support piracy, using traditional Arab sailboat and what little remains of the Algerian navy. Then, a single region is fully organized with a few working cities and local authorities that have managed to control more than a single urban center and its immediate surrounding: Kabylia. Its capital is Tizi Ouzou and the region, located to the East of Al Djazaïr and including Bejaïa and Setif, is limited to the south by the Aures Mounts. After, the fall of central authority, Radical Islamic groups attempted to overrun that area but they were met with fierce popular resistance and the local population executed captured members of these groups with extreme cruelty. As a result, no radical Islamist has entered Kabylia for months and the region can count as organized. Elsewhere, the only viable cities are these located near remote oasis to the south while urban centers to the north are ruined with tiny, scattered and extremely poor groups occupying various quarters. The countryside, however, is controlled by prewar terrorist groups and under the constant threat of actions by opposing factions.

Tunisia remains the only viable country (and a member of the FBU) but to survive, the government had to abandon some lands. In fact, in 2003 a line of light fortifications was built from Gabès to Gafsa and, then, from Gafsa to Kasserine and Bizerte. These defenses remain in place today, constantly patrolled by the army with Tozeur (North west of the Chott el-Jérid) being the only occupied city outside of this defensive line, still exploiting the vast oasis and maintained as a kind of last outpost before the Sahara. As a result, the country only lost a fairly small portion of its population and Tunisians are living under fairly good conditions. Food is largely sufficient and, if electricity is only available to very few people, it allows for some industrial production in the country.

Libya, for its part, follows a very different path as its leader Muammar al Gaddafi survived the attack. After a very short civil war suppressed in blood, the man establishes a new state under the title “Islamic and Socialist Republic of Cyrenaïca” with its capital at Sirte. Then most cities on the Sirte Gulf survive and remain under the authority of Colonel Gaddafi. His rule is greatly reinforced by the continuous exploitation of a few oil wells as this allows the Army to remain fully operational (including a small air force) while the large quantities of weapons stocked in Libya prior to the war, and now largely available, prevents immediate shortage of military supplies. In addition, a general support from the Bedouins of Libya allows him to extend his rule over most of the desert and may be again as far down as northern Chad. Largely involved in piracy, the new state is certainly the most important threat to Mediterranean shipping as pirates operating from Beida, Benghazi and Sirte have access to light modern combat ships. Recent reports even suggest that Libya reached some kind of agreement with the Knight Hospitalers as Libyan pirates avoid to attack Knight’s protected shipping while the Knights leave them alone when a target has refused their protection (The very nature of such agreement remain unknown, however).

Finally, Mauritania has become the most miserable of the Maghreb countries with no central authorities at all and no surviving urban centers. The entire population is back to the desert, the old cast system* has been reestablished along with full slavery** while the Hassane warrior tribes rule again over the region.

* Mauritanian population is divided among Zaouiya (religious tribes), Znaga (subservient tribes), Haratine (former slaves, freedmen), Abid (slaves) and Igaouen (griot, bards and magicians).
** Slavery has become a reality wolrdwide but nowhere is it legally recognized as in Mauritania.

[Mohoender]

Entirely landlocked, the region extends over the Sahara and counts among the archest region on the planet. Entirely escaping the war, it finally falls to the global consequences that reshape large portions of the world. More than to the war itself, the region falls to climatic changes, to civil unrest spreading from neighboring countries and from internal movements.

First of all, a severe drought touches the region after the nukes fall and many among the subsistence herders and farmers are killed as a result of this. Then, things change in 2007 when heavy rains fall all over Western Africa. One could think that this is a good thing but one of the consequences of this exceptional rainfall is the development of locusts that invade the entire region and, then, spread north and south to Cabo Verde and as far as Israel, resulting in a destruction of crops killing as many people as the drought. In addition, civil unrest spread quickly from countries such as Algeria, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Nigeria and Sudan, bringing additional violence to a region that was already terribly shaken. Finally, internal violence increased as well, essentially in Mali and Niger and coming from revived Tuareg rebellious groups. As a result of all this, the various governments of Burkina-Faso, Mali, Niger and Chad all fell one after another and boundaries don’t mean much any more.

Marauding bands essentially made of people from abroad are still wandering around in the southern part of the area and throughout Chad, bringing insecurity whenever they go. The local surviving populations, among the poorest on Earth before the war fall back to small villages and communities scattered around what remain of the weak regional water system. In fact, most of them are located in Mali and western Niger, on the banks of the last viable river: the Niger. Everywhere else water is increasingly scarce (the Lake Chad has been reduced by 50%) and communities that have existed for centuries are gone. These people are growing what they can and gathered whatever weapon they could for defense. Every prewar city is in ruin and their street are now filled with sand regularly blown by strong winds. Living within their walls has become impossible and they can be no more than a refuge for a night or two. In this general chaos, only two cities remain, acting as lighthouses in a sea of sand: Djenné and Timbuktu. Both are placed under the rule of an Islamic religious authority and act as centers of learning and trade again, centered on their respective great mosques. They have been lightly fortified and are protected by a number of warriors using camels and refitted four wheel drive trucks.

Only one group is doing almost fine in this area and it is the Tuareg. Free again, they all went back to the desert to a fully nomadic life, knowing every oasis and wandering constantly through the “Tinariwen” (The deserts). As in Mauritania, they rely again on slavery and again organize themselves into a confederation of tribes placed under the leadership of several “Amenokal” (Chiefs). This was made easier by the fact that Tuareg all understand each other despite some regional variation in their language, the Tamasheq. Since the refounding of their confedaration all Touareg leaders gather every two years on the site of Abalessa, former capital of the Hoggar and a place they consider to be their capital city. The leaders are men but women have their word to say as Tuareg obey traditional rules that are very different from these of other Muslim people.

Tuareg are matrilineal and unlike in many other Muslim societies, women do not traditionally wear the veil, whereas men do, wearing the traditional dark blue shesh (Tagelmust in their language). Taking on the veil is associated with the rite of passage to manhood. Else, Marriage is considered a private institution and no one has to interfere with a couple's marriage. The only tradition they know is a 'quarantine' period after one's spouse's death. In addition, there is no commonly punishment for women or men who were unfaithful. However, Tuareg are not supposed to have more than one life partner and once a couple is recognized, the two people are supposed to get married. Finally, it is highly unusual for anyone to remain single and when a partner passes away, the survivor is expected to marry again after the period of quarantine. Exceptions, however, are made if there are no potential partners, or the widow or widower is too old to get married.*

* Source: wikipedia.

[Mohoender]

I slightly modified the Sahel text to include a plausible locust invasion spreading from there to the entire Western Africa and into Sudan, Egypt and Israel (why not Portugal). That has been inspired by a RL event that was the locust invasion of 2004.

[Mohoender]

When I refer to that part of Africa, I’m aware that the region I’m referring to usually only includes Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. However, for reason of convenience I also added Guinea-Bissau and Senegal (Gambia included).

As most of Africa this region escapes the war but not its consequences and it is now largely under a stage of civil war that effectively started in the 1990’s. The first countries to enter civil war in the early 1990’s were Liberia and Sierra Leone and both conflicts intensified in 2000 when the UN and foreign troops had to be withdrawn because of the international situation becoming more tense everyday.

In Liberia, the rebellious movement opposing the brutal regime of Charles Taylor slowly gains supremacy until 2003 when Taylor’s regime ultimately falls. However, this doesn’t put an end to the civil war as Taylor’s regime is, then, replaced by an equally brutal one. More insurgency movements appear as a result of this and the civil war still goes on, making new victims everyday. In Sierra Leone, the situation could have evolved more favorably as some hope for a peaceful resolution of the conflict still existed in 2000. Sadly, after evacuating the foreigner, most of the international force withdraws and the conflict heats up again. Moreover, about a thousand Nigerian soldiers are left behind and survivors soon compose a marauding band that turns on the people they were supposed to protect.

In Guinea, after the arrest of several opposition leaders in September 2001, the country faces an outbreak of violence. Then, the increasingly dictatorial government and the growth of rebellious activity spreading from neighboring states finally bring the country to civil war in 2002. That conflict starts with huge protests taking place in the capital city of Conakry that are repressed in blood. Most casualties are of Fulani and Mandinka origin and the civil war quickly turns into an ethnic and religious conflict opposing the main ethnic groups of the country (Fulani, Madinka and Soussou).

As this is going on in Guinea, civil war already stroke Guinea-Bissau after the elections held in 2000. As soon as the first results are known, they are contested and within weeks the rebellious forces that had accepted peace a year earlier, takes up arms again. Four years later, the civil war has turned into a bloody ethnic conflict opposing Fula and Mandinka to the less numerous Balanta and Manjaco. In fact, that conflict has merged with the one in Guinea and both wars can be considered as one sole ethnic conflict with Fulan and Mandinka on one side and the other ethnic groups on the other side.

The only exception to this confused situation is that of Senegal which, under the leadership of its new president, reinforced its attachment to democracy. Nevertheless, the decaying world situation forced the government to rely more heavy on the army, expended it and rebuilding a combat air force that have been left to decay in the pre-war years. In addition, when violence went out of control in Ivory Coast, French troops were invited to Senegal and this strengthens the governmental position, helping the Senegalese authorities to resist the surrounding chaos trying to slip through the borders. Of course, civil unrest is not unheard of but it remains limited and mild while Dakar remains the main commercial harbor for Western Africa. In addition, the population still has access to some power supply and the average level of living is fairly high, contributing to general peace. The only exception to that comes from Casamance and Gambia which have join forces in an open war with Dakar. Civil unrest and low intensity guerilla in Casamance have been the rule for years but when the Twilight War appears, it increases dramatically and in recent years it has been increasingly fueled by guerilla movements operating essentially from Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.

NB: The given years are that of my timeline but all the conflicts I'm refering to are for the most part under way since 1990. Therefore, this course of events seemed plausible to me whatever the timelines.

[Mohoender]

When the Twilight War occurs, the five states in this region (Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Togo) have all entered a process of democratization despite important corruption problems. However, the war brings most of these efforts to a progressive end, countries falling one after another.

That move toward chaos starts with Nigeria in the fall of the first year of the Twilight War when a General overthrows the elected president and establishes a new military junta. This time, however, things don’t go as in the past and the junta faces widespread opposition. When civil unrest starts to change into armed rebellion, the Igbo people in Biafra are the first one to act, seizing military supplies and attacking police outposts everywhere. As the army moves in, the Hausa secede and establish an Islamic republic over the Northern provinces, slowly pushing to the south with the declared intention of expending that Islamic state all over the country. As a result, the military is forced to split its forces to face the new threat and the advance in Biafra slows down, quickly meeting with military failures. In fact by early spring next year, the governmental forces lose Port Harcourt and most of the oil producing regions is now devastated. In addition, the Igbo are not the only one to fight in Biafra anymore as they have been joined by several minor ethnic groups. Things goes from bad to worse when the army, exhausted and unable to find enough military supplies on the international market fail to repel all the Hausa. The situation in Nigeria continues to degenerate and two years after the beginning of the civil war casualties increases dramatically. Heavy weaponry is increasingly hard to run and most fighting now involves mostly light weaponry and machetes while aircrafts have been grounded and naval ships are slowly rusting in their harbors. When the nuke fall in 2004, what is left of legal authority, government and rebels alike, collapses and the ethnic conflict keeps building up as it gets in the hands of local petty warlords.

With the quick reduction in international trade, pressure also builds up on Ivory Coast and widespread discontent finally turns into civil war when the government officially implemented a policy discriminating Ivorian of foreign descent. After new death during racial riots, a rebellious movement is created in the north (New Forces) which takes immediate military actions. As an answer to this, the Ivorian army moves north while the Ivorian president favor the creation of various militias to the south (Young Patriots and Lima Militia). The French army could have taken action but in the light of the events in Europe, the French leave Ivory Coast to Gabon and Senegal. With the departure of the French military, the civil war enters a new stage and fighting goes out of hand with massacre of civilians by both sides becoming the rule.

When civil war builds up to the North, as in Ivory Coast and Nigeria, the other countries in the region find themselves in an increasingly difficult situation. When rebellious groups start to cross the borders, their meager forces prove unable to repel them and find themselves in an increasingly difficult situation. That goes out of hand after the nukes start to fall and Ghana and Togo are overwhelmed by civil unrest and ethnic riots. Their government collapses, people go back to their regions of origin and to their natural distrust toward each other.

Benin is the only country to escape that fate as the government, relying on a new but relatively stable democratic system succeeds in united the people under the authority of the state. Nevertheless, as time goes by, the government is forced to withdraw from the northern regions, leaving the entire departments of Alibori and Atakora as well as half of that of Borgou to themselves. As a result of these losses the president realizes that the regular forces have no chance to stop the invasion and he issues a national emergency order allowing for an increase among the popular militia which grows from 4500 to a little more than 45000. This choice proves essential in the surviving of the state as, despite corruption, these militias prove faithful to the idea of Benin and fight with dedication on several occasions. Finally, the situation improves again when that states join the FBU getting much needed military support as a result of this choice.

Nowadays, Southern Benin remains an island of stability in the region and Cotonou has become an essential harbor for commerce and black market in this area. This is true to France of course but also to the various fighting groups wreaking havoc in the other countries and in need of an access to some military supplies. Benin, therefore, became the supply base from which military goods get in the region. Corruption is high but it is turned toward the outside and trying to push a soldier or a militiaman into betraying the government wouldn’t be wise. Outside of Benin, the situation is simply chaos and fighting is everywhere, brutal and bloody.

[Mohoender]

The region has always experienced turmoil and instabilities of all kinds and of course that didn’t stop with the Twilight War. Civil unrest and local conflicts occurred everywhere while the region is hosting one of the most dangerous countries in the world (Somalia), second only to the Central African Region and to the Indian sub-continent.

Surprising enough the relatively new Republic of Eritrea did survive the war and, despite being involved in conflicts with Ethiopia and Sudan, remains functional. First, this is achieved through the full collaboration existing between Tigray to the north and Afar to the south. Second, instrumental to this survival, you find the Warsai Wikalo Program that started several state sponsored civil projects before the war. Then, with the drying up of foreign money and the end of trade the government of Eritrea had to modify this program, replacing money by more had work on the side of people. As a result, while every male and female above high school age is free to do private business, they are all entitled to achieve several turn of public duties every year (military, construction projects, health care, teaching and agricultural work). Third, Eritrea benefits from rough landscapes that are highly favorable to the defenders. Last, the government which was coming from guerrillas quickly modified the army structure, getting rid of complex equipments and developing several small and simple ammunition plants. Nevertheless, Eritrea remains or was involved in several conflicts, including a small exchange with NATO. That conflict was short, almost one sided and has its roots in the complicated relations between Eritrea and the USA. Faced with US administration hostility and in need of foreign support, the government of Asmara turned to Russia before the war, opening the Massawa harbor facilities to Soviet military shipping again. Of course, by the time US and its allies got involved in the Middle East, soviet ship at Massawa were long gone or destroyed but in the eyes of the US command this still represented a threat. Soon, Eritrea’s ports and airfields were subjected to air strikes that destroyed the main three coastal cities (Assan, Massawa and Tio) and grounded the air force. Two other conflicts are, however, seeing extended ground operations and bring instability to the border regions. The first one opposes Eritrea to Sudan and has its roots in a dispute that started soon after independence when the new Eritrean government accused Khartoum of fueling terrorist movements within its borders. Not long before the war the two countries started negotiations with help from Qatar to solve that issue but this came to an end as the Twilight War built up. Finally, fighting started for good between Eritrean militias (mostly Tigre) and scattered bands of Sudanese marauders, bringing chaos to the western border as far down as the cities of Âkurdet and Nak’fa. The most important and the older of these conflicts is of course that opposing Eritrea to Ethiopia. This came to an end after independence but it was revived as the Twilight War started and Ethiopian incursions are still common on the former border with Ethiopia. Relations with Djibouti, however, have improved lately and the FBU is slowly filling the vacuum left by the termination of relations with Russia.

Somalia was and still is a powder keg and the withdrawing of UN missions didn’t improve the situation. The country is still in the hands of several warlords and fighting and massacres are common sight. The population has been reduced in dramatic proportions, food is scarce, but Kalashnikov and ammunitions are found at every corner of every market. In addition, piracy was developed in a tremendous way and Somali pirates are now operating all over the northern Indian Ocean, representing a threat to every ship sailing out of the Persian Gulf or the southern Arabic Coast.

Ethiopia fell also to ethnic and civil unrests but followed a very unusual path as the country had been divided among ethnic regions prior to the Twilight War. As a result warlords rule over the different regions but, constantly fighting among each other, have created an insecurity that plague the entire country. In addition, Ethiopia had to face a long lasting drought and food supplies remain mostly insufficient, resulting in the death of many more people among the population and in more fighting among warlords. Three of the ethnic regions (Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambela and the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People's Region), characterized by the absence of a truly dominating ethnic group, are plagued by brutal and continuous ethnic conflicts. A fourth one (Somali) is also facing a full scale civil war but, this time, it has spread from Somalia and the Ethiopian region slowly and fully integrated the Somali civil war. Then, the two ethnic regions bordering Eritrea (Tigray and Afar) are also experiencing severe fighting resulting from the continuous tensions that plague their relation with Eritrea. This is fueled by the desire of their local warlords to control Eritrean wealth. Therefore, these warlords regularly send raiding party to Eritrea but these have been successfully repelled and Asmara is now conducting retaliatory actions deep behind their borders. The largest region (Oromia) is also fairly stable and powerful, including the two chartered cities (Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa) and their functional but limited industries. Mostly counting as organized under the leadership of the Oromo Liberation Front, that region is facing some insurgencies, nevertheless, and part of its territory is disputed. The last ethnic region of Ethiopia (Amhara) is the most stable and the only one to fully feed its population. The Amhara region is ruled by more than a mere warlord as the local Negus resides in the capital city of Bahir Dar, the last large town in the area, located on Lake Tana at the starting point of the Blue Nile. With the chaos and the numerous deaths that marked the dissolution of the Ethiopian state, the largely Orthodox Christian’s population of Amhara left the cities to take refuge in the mountain villages. This move was encouraged by the Negus who issued an order that created a people’s militia resembling that of Eritrea.

Djibouti, the last country in the Horn of Africa, is also the only one to be fully organized; only facing a few incursions by marauders from the Afar region and Somalia. The city has become the sole commercial port in the area and the main link between Oromia and the sea. As a result, desert patrols are important and camels are again the main means of transportation departing daily to bring supplies all over the Horn of Africa. Placed under the full protection of France, early in the war, the country houses a much expended French garrison, an important air base and part of the French Fleet in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, local troops are often placed under French command.

[Mohoender]

Eastern Africa has known its share of turmoil as most of the continent but as the Twilight War was starting, it was considered one of the most stable parts of Africa. Therefore, it started to be plagued with ethnic and civil unrest this was a surprise to everyone.

One country, however, had been the theater of a bloody civil war: Rwanda. This was over when the war started but tensions were still running high between Hutus and Tutsis and with the ensuing chaos, these tensions results in more violence again. A second civil war starts but this time it is not limited to Rwanda and quickly spreads to Burundi and later to Uganda. Massacres are numerous and bloody; rough estimates indicate a death toll which could be as high as 40% of the total population in all three countries. This time the world is unable to send any relief to the region and these deaths are followed by huge epidemics that might have killed almost as much. When everything is finally over, Burundi and Rwanda have been turned into giant graveyards while Uganda is in turmoil. Weakened by the ethnic war coming from Rwanda, the southern Bantu population shrinks and, then, comes under attack from the northern based sectarian terrorist movement known as the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Within weeks what is left of the governmental forces collapses and Uganda enters a period of chaos which continues to our days. While several groups of Bantu are still fighting, the LRA engages in a war of terror in which murder, abduction, mutilation and sexual enslavement of women and children have become the rule.

Tanzania also fells the weight of the Hutus/Tutsis civil war but that doesn’t spread very far in the country and that conflict is not truly involved in the collapses of the state. However, Tanzania was highly dependent on world trade and it had turned most of its agricultural production to export. Therefore, when world trade collapses, so does the economical base of the country. Unable to adequately feed its population the government in Dar-es-Salaam is facing huge food riots and, under pressure, the military commanders fire at the people. However, the well trained army is soon faced by the People’s Militias (numbering more than 100.000) and the country enters civil war. The government forms new loyal militias and massacres are performed by both sides, resulting in terrible death toll as the food riots turn to ethnic wars. The most important of these massacres takes place in Zanzibar when the government sends 2000 regular troops and more than 20.000 militias to suppress a large protest movement that has been held on the Island for several days. Power supply is shot down and the troops land at night, spreading to the street in silence and killing people in their sleep. When everything is over, after several weeks of fighting, almost 50% of the population has been killed (30% more will die) along with all the troops and militias. As a result, the survivors form their own government, established their own militia and declare independence. Nowadays, the island can be considered organized, it is engaged in some limited piracy but, most importantly, it is slowly becoming a major center of trade again.

Kenya is the only country where the government remains in place, despite some limited civil unrest in the North East and North West that comes under control when supplies are delivered to the army in exchange for the establishment of a small US military base near Mombassa. This base has expended greatly over the moths and it now holds the entire US Forces for Africa with an air base and a military port that can service ships such as destroyers and frigates. In addition, the refinery established nearby has become very important to this force but also to the troops deployed to the Middle East. It is indeed the largest working refinery on the Indian Ocean and whatever crude oil can be shipped out of the Persian Gulf end up there to be processed. Of course, support from the fledgling US is insufficient to explain Kenya’s survival and governmental success also results from continuously working industries and from the emphasize put on what is now considered to be the three pillars of the state: Christianity, Swahili language and a revived the Massaï warrior tradition.

[scholar rat]

I like what you have done. I think if you use maps to show the areas that you are talking about would be real helpful to someone like myself who is somewhat geographically illiterate. no offense given.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by scholar rat

I like what you have done. I think if you use maps to show the areas that you are talking about would be real helpful to someone like myself who is somewhat geographically illiterate. no offense given.

No problem I was thinking about doing it but it takes sometime to get them and I delayed that. I'll try to add them soon, however.

I'll post the last text on Africa tonight and after I'm done with that continent. Nevertheless, Cabo Verde and Madagascar have been left aside but I will do something on them later when I'll cover both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

For now, I'll stop posting here for sometimes as I have other things to write but be sure that I'll get back to this later. If any one has done something on other regions feel free to contribute.

Of course, anyone can have a very different vision but I simply hope that mine can be inspire some.

[Mohoender]

This vast region of Africa has been plagued for years by guerillas and ethnic conflicts before everything starts settling down. However, tensions appear again with the Twilight War and even before that with the revival of the various guerillas. Then, with global chaos and the end of international relations, the entire regions enter a new conflict with every country in the area involved to some points.

First and most of important of all is the role played by the most powerful country on the continent: South Africa. Under the presidency of F.W. de Klerk the country had initiated a move toward democracy and the end of discrimination, legalizing the ANC and releasing Nelson Mandela from prison. Obviously, this was intended to put an end to the Apartheid system that had been in placed for nearly fifty years. In addition, the government officially dismantles its nuclear weapon programs, announcing that the army destroyed its nuclear arsenal while the government accesses the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The process seems to be well underway when in a referendum held in 1992, 68% of the white electorate voted in favor of dismantling Apartheid through negotiation.

Things turn sour, however, on the next year when Chris Hani, an anti-apartheid, activist is assassinated. The murderer escapes and is found dead on the next day. Investigation progress slowly and ANC leaders, following Winnie Mandela’s renewed attack on the white minority, accuses the government of duplicity. These allegations are almost immediately followed by the most violent riots in the country since the release of Nelson Mandela. First, located to a few Ghettos, these unrests soon spread to most of eastern South Africa and F.W. De Klerk is increasingly criticized within his own majority. The widespread violence and the government incapacity to put an end to it worry the white minority and most of the electorate switches its support. F.W. de Klerk is forced out of office and new elections are organized under the Apartheid rules, resulting in the election of Ferdinand Hartzenberg, leader of the Konserwatiewe Party van Suid-Afrika. During the following months the new government turns away from de Klerk’s policies and the Apartheid is again fully implemented (Also Coloured and Indians people retain their voting rights). In addition, the multi-racial elections that were already planned are cancelled while the ANC is banned again and Nelson Mandela placed under house arrest before year’s end. The new president goes two steps further when Winnie Mandela is also arrested and when he declares that South Africa will resume its nuclear program (The Army, then reveals that the existing bombs had not been destroyed).

The year that follows is marked by a gradual increase in violence throughout the country, among Blacks but also directed toward the White and Coloured communities. At last, many among the Blacks are expelled from the western region and sent to east as the army is expending, launching an increasing number of COIN operations in hope of stopping violence. In the meantime, the South African government reasserts its control over the city of Walvis Bay in Namibia despite widespread opposition by Namibian authorities and western democracies. Fully aware of its weaknesses and unwilling to bring the country back to war, the Namibian government (former SWAPO) finally accepts the situation and renounces its claims on the town.

From then, South Africa faces growing civil unrest with the western regions under almost full control by the white minority and the east increasingly under the threat of a better organized but divided Black community. Indeed the native populations of South Africa fail to unite and their various movements (ANC, Inkhata, PAC and SAPC for the most important ones) fight as much among themselves as against the White community. Nevertheless, the new government is facing its own difficulties as it is widely condemned by the West and by the Warsaw Pact. However, several countries in the West, more aware of the increasingly tense global situation secretly back Hatzenberg’s administration.

As the world accelerates its course toward the Twilight War, the internal conflict in South Africa becomes increasingly brutal. Casualties are constantly increasing while repression becomes bloodier but, except for some verbal condemnation, the world doesn’t do anything and this doesn’t change even when what was widespread civil unrest finally turns to full fledge civil war. At last, the situation changes again when most western countries, facing difficulties in the Twilight War, put an end to international sanctions on South Africa in exchange for access to South African raw materials. Things go one last step ahead as the nukes are falling all over the planet. At that time, South Africa is well aware of the military backing received by the black insurgency from several of its neighbors and it finally takes the decision to use nuclear devices to put an end to the civil war. As a result, six nuclear attacks are decided with the first one being dropped on Harare in Zimbabwe. Almost simultaneously, three attacks are launched toward Mozambique where the main cities are destroyed: Inhambane, Maputo and Pemba. Finally, the last two are used on the South African soil, ravaging the capital cities of Lesotho and Swaziland.

These attacks didn’t put an end to the conflict and the South African civil war is still going on. However, the native movements have lost most of their foreign support and far too much combatant while the Hatzenberg’s government gets full control over the Cap province, the Gauteng province and the white enclave of Durban in Natal.

Among South Africa’s neighbors two escape the war and most chaos, finally siding with the government of Pretoria in exchange for military supplies and direct support by the South African army. These are the two lightly populated countries of Botswana and Namibia which, despite ethnic stability, are increasingly plagued by guerilla groups crossing the borders and bringing destruction with them. In a desperate need to expend their military forces to meet this threat, the two governments finally turn to South Africa. Of course, several marauding bands continue to bring destructions to these two countries but their military forces, now well supplied and trained, are increasingly capable of meeting that threat. The other countries, however, are all plagued with widespread instability but to very different levels.

Before the war, Angola took a path to a peaceful resolution of its civil war but this changed with the successful 1991 coup in Moscow. Then, UNITA which has been increasingly isolated and lost support from the West in favor of the MPLA turns to the Warsaw Pact. Indeed Jonas Sawimbi, leader of the UNITA, true to his word ( "I am not communist because it serves no purpose. Nor am I a capitalist. Socialism in this country is the only answer.�), turns to Russia for supplies. Soon, the UNITA is joined by the FNLA which turns to China and the three groups that had been fighting each other for years resume full military action. For a time the MPLA which is still the legal government of the country, backed by the West, gets on top but that doesn’t last as South Africa and Namibia allow military supplies from Moscow and Beijing to transit through their territory, slowly shifting the military balance. Finally, when supplies from abroad dry up and the conflict loses in intensity, it is already too late and much of the population had been killed, victim of the civil war. The situation gets even worse when Cabinda is nuked reducing national income to almost nothing.

Malawi and Zambia both falls to an entirely different matter as their respective governments simply fail to maintain the economy. Then, with the war, their stagnant economies simply go bankrupt and most people find themselves out of work and unable to buy food anymore. The population starts to protest and both governments are quickly facing large food riots. The two countries respective security forces are unable to manage the situation and civil unrest last for months, putting even more strain on the fledging governments. Finally, as food riots turn to ethnic conflict, with both countries ravaged, legal authorities simply disappear.

In Zimbawe, the decline starts when Mugabe’s government takes the decision to expel the white farmers to give the land back to native people. Those white farmers mostly leave for South Africa and when it is established that Mugabe’s regime supplies weapon to insurgent movements in South Africa, they weight heavily in the decision of using nuclear weapons. Only one bomb is dropped on Zimbabwe, however, but it destroys the capital city of Harare, decapitating the state. Left with no guidance above the village level the survivors turn on each other for food.

Mozambique is hard hit by the nukes, however, and that event instead of ending the ongoing civil war, fuels it. All the sudden, surviving governmental troops and rebel forces fight with some kind of desperate energy. In addition, with the ensuing chaos, the various ethnic groups in the country attack each other, adding an ethnic dimension to the already brutal fight.

[Mohoender]

As I couldn't find a satisfying map, I made one for the African regions and hope you'll find your way around. For more detailed elements (cities, topography...) you are on your own, good luck, I'm using an Italian Atlas.

[Matt W]

NETHERLANDS SUGGESTION

Originally Posted by Mohoender

. The government recently moved back to Groningen while the surviving ships are now stationed in the small harbour of Harlingen. A few oil rigs have been secured in the North Sea allowing for a trickle of oil to be produced but most of it is supplied to the few aircrafts still operating from Leeuwarden. The Dutch are still lacking in everything and electricity production is non existent but, outside of foreign marauders, the country can be considered organized, the population taking the situation with patience and some kind of philosophy.

Um... it's not just the North Sea that would be useful. There are HUGE and ONSHORE natural gas fields in the northern part of the country. BTW, these fields are a good source of helium

Perhaps the French might neutralise the Dutch by making an offer to help rebuild the natural gas infrastructure - in exchange for (maybe) 50% of the output?