Revolutions IMO is a better option than a monolitic islamic uprising (also Islamic movements will be part of it). Weither it will be locall or on a large scale remain in question.
Why would you have much influx to Europe? Destruction in North Africa would be minimal even if the oil fields were targeted as they are often located in remote areas. Moreover, Tunisia and Morocco could have escaped nukes entirely. Then, again, why would you cross the Mediterranean to end up in devatated lands.
France could be an option of course but It would deal with newcommers at gunpoint and sink as much ships as possible.
IMO, people coming from North Africa could be brought in by the Union Corse importing them as slaves.
Also possible, you might have France making a deal with pirates from North Africa and allying with them to maximize profit and control over the seas. North African pirates saling slaves to France is very much an option IMO.
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