Twilight 1990 timeline

[95th Rifleman]

I've decided to buck up the courage and post my alternate-timeline for the Twilight games I run. The premise is that WW3 started in 1986 rather than 1996 and my players began the campaighn in the summer of 1990 after everything had gone to hell.

Initialy I kept things to just Europe and sketched a rough timeline to cover events but after a few encouraging words from folks on this bord I decided to expand and create a full setting. I've decided to post my work here so other folks can have a look, maybe take some ideas or help me expand the setting fully.

The Timeline (roughly)

1979:
Some historians claim that WW3 really started in December of 1979, with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.

1980:
Reagan is elected president, his hardline anti-communist stance would lead to some of the key events that resulted in the third world war.

Iraq takes advantage of Iran's growing geo-political isolation and instigate the Iran-Iraq war.

1981:
Failed assassination attempts on both President Reagan and the Pope.

The Russians begin the escalation of military efforts in Afghanistan. Both America and China support the Mujahideen.

Iran-Iraq war leads to a stalemate as Iranian human wave assaults blunt Iraqi offensive efforts combined with problems caused by a overextended Iraqi supply chain.

1982:
CIA agent, William Smith, begins his training/observation mission in Afghanistan

Israel begins conflict with Lebanon following attempted assassination of Ambassador Shlomo Argov and increased terrorist attacks by groups using lebanon as a base.

Falklands war results in a British victory. Military analysts on both sids of the iron curtain are forced to re-evaluate the capabilities of rapid reaction forces in light of the speed and effectiveness of the British respone to the the Argentine invasion.

The Iranians break the stalemate and begin offensive operations against the Iraqis.

Mujahideen recieve tanks and weapons from the Chinese and support from the Americans.

1983:
An Iraq-Soviet arms deal is undercut by the USA as the Reagan administration takes steps to limit Soviet influence in the Middle east. Rather than buying Soviet T72's, the Iraqis aquire 63 American M60's along with F4 Phantoms. The plan backfires as Soviets form an alliance of convenience with the Iranian government and supplies them with the tanks and equipment earmarked for Iraq and conveniantly opening up anothe possible front for the conflict in Afghanistan. The Iran-Iraq war turns into yet another proxy war between east and west.

America launches a succesful operation in Grenada, which is condemned by the USSR as "aggressive imperialism"

In November, NATO begins the "Able Archer" exercise leading to the Soviets putting all available forces on immediate alert, fearing it was a preude to a NATO first strike. The crisis is averted when the exercise concludes on 11 November. The Soviets condemn this as another act of aggression by the West and it becomes one of the many snowballs that led to the avalanche of war, hardening attitudes and empowering hawkish politicians on both sides of the iron curtain. Historians, to this day, debate what effect the exercise would of had if they had been undertaken in 1984 or 1985, many believeing that a full nuclear armageddon would of been the result as opposed to the gradual tit for tat exchanges that marked the thrid world war.

1984:
Margaret Thatcher's continued anti-communist stance leads to tension between the UK and France as the French government pursues a conciliation policy between east and west.

William Smith is captured by the Soviets in Afghanistan and accused of espionage and gun smuggling, US authorities deny all knowledge and leave him "hanging in the wind". This events triggers a series of events that lead to the third world war as the Soviets take a much more hardline approach in Afghanistan and begin to see it as a conflict directly against the west (and China). Soviets make demands that America acknowledge and cease their involvement in the Afghan conflict, similar demands are made of the Chinese and the USSR begins a major mobilisation.

Reagan wins a second term, taking advantage of current events and promising an increasingly hardline, anti-communist stance.

1985:
William Smith is executed on carges of espionage while the US government continues to deny all knowledge. An unknown source leaks documents to the New York Times that prove Smith was indeed a CIA agent operating in Afghanistan, the scandal rocks the Reagan administration and locks them into an increasingly belligerent anti-communist policy.

Mikhail Gorbachev becomes leader of the Soviet Union and makes it clear that the Soviet Union will no longer tolerate acts of aggression against the USSR or her allies. Private documents discovered after the war indicate that Gorbachev had desires to reform the Soviet Union but was forced to change his goals in the face of external beligerance and internal pressure.

General Jiang Shihong of the PLA instigates operation Jade Phoenix an unauthorised offensive into the Soviet Union. Believing that the Soviets are weak and unready to respond and that China could benefit greatly from a dictated settlement, General Shihong gathered a like-minded coterie of senior officers and devised a plan in which a division under his command would go rogue and attack the USSR. Jade Phoenix was a simple strategy, Shihong expected rapid and deep gains that his allies would put pressure on Beijing to follow up and develop. General Shihong greatly underestimated the Soviets and his attack iwas rapidly crushed by Red Army reserves positioned for just such a possibility, his last communication to headquarters is loosely translated as "Better to ask forgiveness than to beg permission.". The Red Army then counter attacks and punches into Chin with the force of a thunderbolt despite the Chinese government's repeated attempts to disavow General Shihong's attack. When the Red Army deployed chemical weapons, any hopes of peaceful compromise where shattered.
It becomes the Soviet's turn to indulge in underestimation asthe PLA surpass the expectations of all observers ad mobilise reserves to blunt the Red Army and rapidly create a meatgrinder across the front.

Soviet planners decide that the Iran-Iraq war could be useful if Iran could win and secure a puppet regime in Iraq, opening the Iraqi oil reserves to Soviet Exploitation. TheSoviets change the nature of the Iran-Iraq war by mobilising the Transcaucasus front and sending it into Iran to support ther allies against the Iraqis. Mobilisation orders are sent to all Warsaw Pact countries, notifying them that troops wil be needed for mobilisation against the PLA and for possible reinforcement of the Transcaucasus front.
Britain and France quickly respond to protect their Middle East assets and deploy troops. Britain sends two Ghurka battalions, a para battalion and an infantry battalion while France sends the Foreighn Legion operational group. America deploys the 7th special forces group and a ranger battalion.
These forces are deployed around the middle east, however the west is not yet ready to involve itself in the Iran Iraq war directly.

The Iraqis know that without a quick end to the war, the Soviets could crush them before the west intervenes and launches a massive attack into northern Iran.

The West German government recieves a surprise, highly secret delegation from the East German military command. Not wishing to be dragged into conflict in China, the East Germans begin to negotiate a possible reunification.

1986:
The Soviet union undertakes full mobilisation to break the stalemate against China, by mid-year almost all category B divisions are sent to the far east, catergory C divisions are upgraded to B status and mobilisation-only units begin training.

German army formations cross the border and quickly overwhelm Soviet forces with the support of East German units. Reunification is declared and a pre-emptive invasion of Poland is launched. The whole world is taken by surprise at these actions, however by November the Warsaw pact forces in eastern europe are able to regroup and launch punishing counter-attacks forcing the Germans to request NATO assistance. NATO forces in Germany deploy in December and world war three officaly begins.

In the middle east Israel takes pre-emtive masures against Syria to prevent that long-term, pro-Soviet nation taking advantage of Soviet involvement in Iran. The campaighn rapidly becomes bogged down in a stalemate.

The 1st Transcaucasus front comes under the command of General Suryakin who has orders to secure the Persian Gulf, he moves his forces into Northern Iran to meet the Iraqis.

The situation in Germany takes everyone by surprise. America had been reinforcing it'scommitments in Saudi Arabia since the beginning of the year but scales up deployments.

From this point I pretty much use the printed background as it rather folds seamlessly together once hostilities have begun.

[simonmark6]

Some interesting points and I enjoyed reading it. I think there's a typo in teh last date. Should it be 1986?

Keep up the good work.

[Rainbow Six]

Definitely a good read. Looks like it sets up a different scenario in the Middle East from that put forward in the RDG Sourcebook?

[Legbreaker]

Pretty good although the initial Chinese attack into the USSR seems a bit weak and could do with some attention. Perhaps indicating the General's officers were of a similar mind, as were other Generals. Perhaps the other Generals promised to support the attack, but the moment they saw the Soviet response conveniently "forgot" to mobilise their own forces...

Also, wouldn't there have been some effort made by the Chinese to declare the General as a loose cannon and attempt to stop the war by diplomatic means?

Sort those issues out and I think it will all hang together fairly well.

[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Also, wouldn't there have been some effort made my the Chinese to declare the General as a loose cannon and attempt to stop the war by diplomatic means?

Would the atmosphere in 1980s China have supported a military coup if the civilian government tried to disavow the attack?

- C.

[95th Rifleman]

I've expanded the Chinese offenisve and made it more realistic.

[Panther Al]

I like it... a lot.


One other question I would add to the others, is what effect would Able Archer have on the situation?

[95th Rifleman]

Originally Posted by Panther Al

I like it... a lot.


One other question I would add to the others, is what effect would Able Archer have on the situation?

I had clean forgotten about that

Added the abl archer exercise to the timeline

[raketenjagdpanzer]

What about KAL007?

[95th Rifleman]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

What about KAL007?

Figured that that event would of happened as it did with the same effects as it did so no need to mention it in the timeline.

I decided not to epeat everything that happened from 1980 to 1986 because allo of it is redundant, I added pertinent events and alterations to real world history.

Stuff like KAL007 don't need editing or chnging to fit into the timeline.

[Panther Al]

Thats what I figured. I asked about Able Archer mainly because just how insanely close - and for those that don't know about it, I suggest you read up on it - we came to kicking off WW3.

[95th Rifleman]

Originally Posted by Panther Al

Thats what I figured. I asked about Able Archer mainly because just how insanely close - and for those that don't know about it, I suggest you read up on it - we came to kicking off WW3.

What I love about the 80's is that so much happened that could of kicked off world war three, which makes the twilight war a legitimate alternate reality. Much more than the 90's in which the cold war was dying, I've always had a problem believing ww3 could happen after '91.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Originally Posted by 95th Rifleman

What I love about the 80's is that so much happened that could of kicked off world war three, which makes the twilight war a legitimate alternate reality. Much more than the 90's in which the cold war was dying, I've always had a problem believing ww3 could happen after '91.

I think the failed coup attempt in '91 (or was it '92?) might have come close. Not Able Archer close, but could have. Imagine; Soviet hardliners take control and order troops to IMMEDIATELY close the German frontier...

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by 95th Rifleman

I've expanded the Chinese offensive and made it more realistic.

Yep, that works MUCH better now.
The west could even get away with blaming the USSR for overreacting, while the PACT can still claim it was a Chinese ploy.

[Mahatatain]

Originally Posted by 95th Rifleman

1984:
Margaret Thatcher follows Reagan's anti-communist stance which leads to tension between the UK and France as the French government pursues a conciliation policy between east and west.

This timeline is really good but, just to be slightly picky on one point, I think that you could describe Thatcher as anti-communist prior to 1984 as she had already been called the Iron Lady by the Soviets prior to that. I know Wikipedia isn't the most reliable source on some things but according to them it was first coined for Thatcher by military journalist Captain Yuri Gavrilov in the Soviet newspaper Red Star on 24 January 1976 because of her staunch opposition to the Soviet Union and communism.

[95th Rifleman]

Originally Posted by Mahatatain

This timeline is really good but, just to be slightly picky on one point, I think that you could describe Thatcher as anti-communist prior to 1984 as she had already been called the Iron Lady by the Soviets prior to that. I know Wikipedia isn't the most reliable source on some things but according to them it was first coined for Thatcher by military journalist Captain Yuri Gavrilov in the Soviet newspaper Red Star on 24 January 1976 because of her staunch opposition to the Soviet Union and communism.

Maggie is a heroine of mine and I've sudied her history. I referred to her in the 1984 section not to indicate the start of her anti-communist stance but to indicate that stance begins to cause problems with France, setting up their eventual withdrawal from NATO. looking at it again I see how it comes across, wil edit it.

[Mahatatain]

Originally Posted by 95th Rifleman

Maggie is a heroine of mine and I've sudied her history. I referred to her in the 1984 section not to indicate the start of her anti-communist stance but to indicate that stance begins to cause problems with France, setting up their eventual withdrawal from NATO. looking at it again I see how it comes across, wil edit it.

Ah - that makes sense and it come across more clearly now.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Originally Posted by 95th Rifleman

Maggie is a heroine of mine [...].

And mine. (She & President Reagan are my heroes from the 80s when it comes to matters political)

[B.T.]

Hi 95th Rifleman,
what you came up with, sounds good. My FtF group plays only on very few occasions, so it will last for years, to play through Poland in 2000. But I'd like to try a 90ies based campaign, with a similar (or the same) background, like yours.
Just out of curiousity: Would'nt the Iran-Contra affair fit nicely in your background (maybe not as it really happened, but parts of the plans, like the selling of TOWs to Iranian separatists, would make sense.).

[Jason Weiser]

My only comment, I don't see Gorbachev making such a statement. By '86 or so, he and Reagan were having competing charm offensives. My thinking is, after Chernenko dies in 1985, he names Viktor Chebrikov to the top slot...and he begins to make things worse instead of better. In fact, say your Chinese general is a KGB asset. He's there mostly to pass intel on the PLA, but well, some bright boy at Moscow Center decides, why not embarrass the Chinese, let's have this guy arrange some small raid to let the KGB Border Guards defeat and have some bodies to display for the Western press. A sort of Gilwitz by proxy...only, something goes very wrong, and matters get WAY out of hand before our guy can stop it. By the time either army's high command is aware of what's going on, you have division sized formations going hammer and tongs with each other 10km deep in China.....

[Webstral]

Jason, it's nice to see you slumming a bit again.

[95th Rifleman]

I'm a bit blown away by the support and positive comments regarding this project. It means allot to me to have such positive peer review and critique.

I'm going to work on fleshing out other details beyond what I've done for my gaming group, TO&E's, that sort of thing.

One thing was considering (as a possible what if) is the idea that nuclear exchanges never happened and the war became a meat grinding stalemate across the middle of Poland. NATO and WP forces where fairly balanced in the mid-80's and if the fear of MAD drove respective militaries to pursue conventional solutions, they war could of dragged on for a decade.

[Mahatatain]

Originally Posted by 95th Rifleman

One thing was considering (as a possible what if) is the idea that nuclear exchanges never happened and the war became a meat grinding stalemate across the middle of Poland. NATO and WP forces where fairly balanced in the mid-80's and if the fear of MAD drove respective militaries to pursue conventional solutions, they war could of dragged on for a decade.

Personally I think that to have the right Twilight 2000 atmosphere you need to have (as well as extensive warfare) massive civilian casualties, a shattering of government organisation and a breakdown of how society works. That will result in a new fragmented society where many people are just out to look after themselves and their immediate family/friends/associates while a few are trying to rebuild something larger than their own community.

To achieve that situation limited nuclear warfare seems the only option to me - a pandemic of some kind could potentially create the same situation but that probably wouldn't involve the same level of military conflict.

That's just my opinion though. Have you ever read Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Storm_Rising. That is a potential version of WWIII without nuclear weapons.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by 95th Rifleman

I'm a bit blown away by the support and positive comments regarding this project. It means allot to me to have such positive peer review and critique.

That's just the way this forum is supposed to work in my opinion. As I wrote once, "you write it, we break it!".

Originally Posted by Mahatatain

To achieve that situation limited nuclear warfare seems the only option to me - a pandemic of some kind could potentially create the same situation but that probably wouldn't involve the same level of military conflict.

I'm in agreement. Civilisation as we know it needs to be almost totally destroyed with rebuilding a long and laborious task of a generation or three. Without nukes, or something equally as devastating, you're not going to have much worse than WWII, which while nasty and destructive, was nothing more than a hiccup compared to what we're present in the books.

[95th Rifleman]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

That's just the way this forum is supposed to work in my opinion. As I wrote once, "you write it, we break it!".


I'm in agreement. Civilisation as we know it needs to be almost totally destroyed with rebuilding a long and laborious task of a generation or three. Without nukes, or something equally as devastating, you're not going to have much worse than WWII, which while nasty and destructive, was nothing more than a hiccup compared to what we're present in the books.

Aye, that's the reason my gaming group kept the timeline canon (sort of) after '86. However as a purely academic exercise, the idea of a non-nuclear WW3 is intriguing.