OT? A New Cold War

[stormlion1]

The preference I think Putin has is of the Balkans coming under the sway of Russia economically. Ukraine had been moving away from Russia so he started what is going on there now. But I think he will be happy if they stay a buffer state with the economic ties closer ties to Russia than the west. If they move to far he will move militarily in such a way that the Balkan states will be under Russian sway permanently or undesirable to the West.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by stormlion1

The preference I think Putin has is of the Balkans coming under the sway of Russia economically. Ukraine had been moving away from Russia so he started what is going on there now. But I think he will be happy if they stay a buffer state with the economic ties closer ties to Russia than the west. If they move to far he will move militarily in such a way that the Balkan states will be under Russian sway permanently or undesirable to the West.

As Clausewitz said, "War is a continuation of politics by other means..."

[Medic]

Now this is slightly off off topic, but would anyone be interested in writing the next Twilight future with me from the current situation onward? The most probable avenue of approach is taking the Ukraine situation forward, then escalating a conflict with the Baltic countries at some point (though possibly throwing in some conflict or two in the mix between the two). Finland would most likely be on the list, if not fully, then partially.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Medic

Now this is slightly off off topic, but would anyone be interested in writing the next Twilight future with me from the current situation onward? The most probable avenue of approach is taking the Ukraine situation forward, then escalating a conflict with the Baltic countries at some point (though possibly throwing in some conflict or two in the mix between the two). Finland would most likely be on the list, if not fully, then partially.

Rainbow 6 and I have already put together a fairly fleshed-out outline of how WWIII in Europe and Asia will start. We're tentatively calling it Twilight 2030. We haven't posted much yet, but I hope to have some time to get back to it this summer. Once a few finishing touches are put on it, we'll share it here.

[Raellus]

This article seems to suggest an intermidiate state, somewhere between non-alignment and full NATO membership, for Finland in the near future.

http://news.yahoo.com/nordic-nations...--finance.html

This one is broader in scope, with some new insights into Russia's current goals and strategy.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/...eastern-europe

[Schone23666]

Another interesting development....this one from Germany.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32257543

[stormlion1]

I look at a Leopard II and all I see is that shot trap.

[Webstral]

I'll trust that some of the best engineers in the world with a good deal of institutional experience designing tanks know what they are doing until evidence to the contrary comes in.

The Ukraine may be a lost cause. We might have been able to do something if Ukraine had been included in NATO. The decision was made not to go this route. I'm not in a position to say whether this was the right decision. I can say that without NATO membership, Ukraine is very far forward. Even with NATO membership, Ukraine would require a major standing force with equally major stocks in place to defend against a significant Russian effort. Such a major force might elicit exactly the kind of response the West has been trying to avoid all along. Russia is looking a short distance down the road at an existential crisis. Ukraine is important to Russia in a way she cannot be important to the US. We have to ask very seriously if we are going to put the mortgage money on the table given the weak hand we have at that distance from friendly territory and the low value of the pot to us.

[Askold]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

Another interesting development....this one from Germany.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32257543

I am not surprised. Germany really let their military deteriorate and there have been embarrassing incidents in the news already as their lack of equipment, vehicles and weapons is apparent.

They have really good equipment available but simply do not have enough and since they are in a hurry to put the gear back in order bringing out the mothballed tanks seems like a good idea. (Although these presumably are older versions and they already have better LEO2 tanks available as well. It is just that building new tanks takes more time and money.)

[stormlion1]

I have a feeling the various European country's are ramping up what production they have and preparing to buy what they can from overseas. The embarrassment during the one exercise where they had broomsticks in place instead of Machine Guns shows how unprepared the Germans are at the moment. I doubt many of the other countrys are in better shape.

They depended too much on the US the last few decades and are paying for it now.

[Schone23666]

Another one, from Germany. Interesting that the German Left Party (which includes several "former" East German Communists) is demanding that the G8 be reassembled when the German Foreign Minister seems to be echoing sentiments that they'd rather stick with the G7 for now.

What was it that Webstral mentioned earlier about "useful fools"...?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0N30DK20150412

[rcaf_777]

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-...role-1.2321894

One step closer to the end game

[Webstral]

If Canada is on board, at least we can say we're backing the right horse. Whether we should be backing that horse or not is an open question. Still, since we appear to have decided on the fact of the backing if not how much money we're willing to stake on the race, it's good to know that Canada thinks this is the right horse to back. If things do go hot, it will be good for NATO morale to see the troops of 1/Lady Chatterly's Own Mounties standing shoulder-to-shoulder with 2/69 Cavalry.

[Raellus]

Seems like a bit of an escalation. I don't see this going anywhere scary but I suppose it could.

http://news.yahoo.com/finnish-milita...140551985.html

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Seems like a bit of an escalation. I don't see this going anywhere scary but I suppose it could.

http://news.yahoo.com/finnish-milita...140551985.html

See....it's events like this that begin to disturb me. Playing peek-a-boo with foreign submarines possibly prowling around near or in territorial waters is one thing....but firing warning shots? That definitely sounds a bit like escalation to me.

Still, no harm done apparently. But if, say, those "warning shots" were to come to close and actually strike a vessel or submarine, that's when things begin to really escalate.

[Schone23666]

Felt it was relevant to bump this thread again. Things are falling apart in Ukraine (again) and there appear to be some ominous signs coming from Moscow...

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/0...ctions-Ukraine

[swaghauler]

How about the 2 Russian Spetsnaz that The Ukraine captured and had US news media interviewing yesterday?

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

How about the 2 Russian Spetsnaz that The Ukraine captured and had US news media interviewing yesterday?

Oh no, they weren't Spetsnaz, they were just two local tourists who happened to be there on holiday.

[stormlion1]

I doubt Putin is overly worried. They can impose the sanctions they want, but when winter hits and Europe needs its natural gas those sanctions will be quietly abandoned. Europe cares about Ukraine only so far.

[Schone23666]

It seems history does indeed go in circles. The Pentagon is gearing up to have equipment sent back to Europe, including AFV's and MBT's, supposedly. Sounds like a relatively small allotment so far, but who knows.

http://news.yahoo.com/pentagon-poise...193411876.html

Note: The Yahoo user comments always crack me up, I wonder what the average age of a lot of these posters are?

[stormlion1]

We have sent back equipment already. Equipment that TPTB made a big deal over removing a year ago. Pathetic. We should have sold it to the Europeans instead and we wouldn't be spending money to send it back.
Also aren't there container ships full of gear prepositioned for things like this? I know we used to have them in the Gulf.

[Schone23666]

It's now official, U.S. heavy weapons along with APC's and MBT's are being pre-positioned in six Central and Eastern European countries.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-pre-positio...001730545.html

As Stormlion said, I love how they made this big deal about "Look, we've pulled out the last of the heavy weapons from Germany, isn't that lovely?" a few years ago, and now, "Well, gotta send the tanks back to Europe...."

[Damocles]

Reforger 2016 ftw!

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Damocles

Reforger 2016 ftw!

It'd have to be named something differently, since the equipment's going to be stationed in countries like the Baltic States and Poland. Not to mention, it seems Germany is a bit more reluctant than some of the other NATO countries to get involved in this current debacle.

And speaking of the Baltic States, it appears the Russians are now "reviewing the questionable legality of their declared independence from the Soviet Union."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia...200136322.html

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

It'd have to be named something differently, since the equipment's going to be stationed in countries like the Baltic States and Poland. Not to mention, it seems Germany is a bit more reluctant than some of the other NATO countries to get involved in this current debacle.

And speaking of the Baltic States, it appears the Russians are now "reviewing the questionable legality of their declared independence from the Soviet Union."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia...200136322.html

And this also made for some interesting reading, particularly Russia's response to the possibility that Sweden might think about joining NATO...
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sw...warning-2015-6

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

And this also made for some interesting reading, particularly Russia's response to the possibility that Sweden might think about joining NATO...
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sw...warning-2015-6

Not surprising, though interesting. There has been a recent change in Sweden's thinking in regards to it's neighbor to the east....which is unsettling considering that Sweden was comfortable with a neutral position during the Cold War.

Also, this rather sobering report by the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-warns-russi...222850933.html

[Tegyrius]

I'll just leave this here:

Operation Iranian Freedom

- C.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by stormlion1

We have sent back equipment already. Equipment that TPTB made a big deal over removing a year ago. Pathetic. We should have sold it to the Europeans instead and we wouldn't be spending money to send it back.
Also aren't there container ships full of gear prepositioned for things like this? I know we used to have them in the Gulf.

They were in the game, POMCUS was to allow rapid deployment of U.S. stateside armored units. Fly the crews over and roll out in theory. I think the ships expand that capacity to a wider area of operations.

[Raellus]

Apparently, due in large part to the troubles in Ukraine, the Poles are embracing paramilitary groups. Here's a 20-minute piece from Vice News on the phenomenon.

http://www.vice.com/video/paramilitary-in-poland-985

[Raellus]

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/pen...ion-1724226952

$600b a year in defense spending and we're still not sure we can beat the Russians?