Turks shoot down a Russia Su-24

[Olefin]

http://news.yahoo.com/report-turkey-...81734904.html#

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/24/middle...der/index.html

Figured it would be the Turks who would do the first shoot down

[Schone23666]

Had a feeling something like this would happen, sooner or later. Too many damned players involved in this game already: U.S., Canada (though Canada's withdrawing their aircraft), France, Iran, Russia, Turkey, Iraqi Sunnis, Iraqi Shiites, Syrian Assad loyalists, Syrian rebels (a multitude plethora of splintered factions), Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Hezbollah....not to mention the increasing number of backers that are bankrolling one faction or another, the Gulf States among them....

Hard to tell where this will go. If it just becomes another "incident" with a lot of shouting between diplomats and grist for the political commentators, then it's just par for the course with that shitty region of the world. If it starts leading to other "incidents" though, especially if Putin decides to trump this up as a provocation by NATO? Then I would be especially worried, a lot.

[Olefin]

Oh I can see a Russian jet "accidentally" shooting down a Turkish F-16 as payback

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Oh I can see a Russian jet "accidentally" shooting down a Turkish F-16 as payback

And I can see the Turks reciprocating in kind, shooting down another not one, but TWO Russian SU-24's or SU-25's, or maybe something meatier? It's all a matter of how far you want to keep pushing buttons...

[Olefin]

I always thought a Turkish Russian start to any Twilight War scenario was a possibility - neither of them like each other and have grudges that go back 600 years or more - and Russia still wants warm water ports and free access to the Med

[Anna Elizabeth]

Sometimes it just feels like Deja Vu. I'm wondering if the true objectives here aren't to get back to the "stability" of the original Cold War/Proxy War times of the fun-lovin' 80s?

[lordroel]

Has it ever happen before that a NATO country shoot down a Soviet or Russian fighter aircraft in the past.

[Anna Elizabeth]

Originally Posted by lordroel

Has it ever happen before that a NATO country shoot down a Soviet or Russian fighter aircraft in the past.

I found a listing of shootdowns during the Cold War. The list excludes the Korean and Vietnam wars: http://www.silent-warriors.com/shootdown_list.html

[Schone23666]

F**k it, instead of "Twilight 2013", they should've come out with "Twilight: 2015" at this rate.

[Jason Weiser]

A friend of mine (no, I will not say whom), has informed me that this has gotten worse.

1) Both aircrew ejected clean, then were captured and killed by Turkish backed Syrian rebels.

2) The Russian CSAR bird was fired on by a TOW. No word on if the chopper was hit or not.

In short, this smells like a deliberate ambush. I think the Turks knew the Russians used this route for egress from hitting targets deeper in Syria. The Turks had warned the Russians before, so they shot down the a/c, figuring the rebels would capture the aircrew and hold them for an appropriate ransom...

Then the idiots went and killed them...then fired on the CSAR chopper. Yeah, this is just getting better and better...eh? I suspect there will be an escort for all Russian strikes from now on...and there might be a dogfight between the Russians and the Turks not long after that. Where things go from there? Who the hell knows.

My advice though? Check your preps, and make damn sure they are close to hand...I got a bad feeling about this.

[rcaf_777]

thanks but I think I will trust my sources instead, if you want to fear monger go right ahead.

[Anna Elizabeth]

Guys, I'm not intending dis-respect, but these things aren't all that new. I truly do *not* believe one downed Fighter-bomber is going to lead to a nuclear war.

I grew up in the 80s, we used to watch GSFG in grainy news footage during our Sunday meal. KAL007. USS Vincennes shoot down of an Iranian airliner.

I'm betting that we'll hear a lot of saber-rattling, maybe a shootdown of a Turk jet, and then? The Russians will order new Sukhoi-30s to replace obsolete Su-24s. The Turks will ramp up orders for F-35s, leading the rest of NATO to follow. The GOPer candidates will vent a lot of verbal flatulence about "defense", jaw about re-opening the production line for F-22s, the MIC will get richer, and life will go on.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

A friend of mine (no, I will not say whom), has informed me that this has gotten worse.

1) Both aircrew ejected clean, then were captured and killed by Turkish backed Syrian rebels.

2) The Russian CSAR bird was fired on by a TOW. No word on if the chopper was hit or not.

To be fair, none of this is particularly breaking news and / or classified. The BBC were reporting over three hours ago that rebels had killed both pilots after they ejected and I've just watched footage of the helicopter being hit by a missile on the 6pm news (Sky News specifically if anyone wants to watch it). The Russian Defence Ministry have confirmed that one person was killed in the helo strike.

Originally Posted by Anna Elizabeth

Guys, I'm not intending dis-respect, but these things aren't all that new. I truly do *not* believe one downed Fighter-bomber is going to lead to a nuclear war.

Agreed.

[Raellus]

I hope that this doesn't escalate.

Putin's got a pretty solid track record of brinksmanship and unilateral action, often military, to protect Russian interests and pride.

I pray that cooler heads prevail.

EDIT: I just watched the video of the Turkmen Brigade blowing up the alleged rescue chopper with a TOW missile. Two things stand out. First, the heli was on the ground and its rotors weren't spinning at all. That seems odd to me. Second, the U.S. vetted and supplied this particular insurgent group TOW missiles, making it an accomplice to the destruction. This is worrying.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I hope that this doesn't escalate.

Putin's got a pretty solid track record of brinksmanship and unilateral action, often military, to protect Russian interests and pride.

I pray that cooler heads prevail.

EDIT: I just watched the video of the Turkmen Brigade blowing up the alleged rescue chopper with a TOW missile. Two things stand out. First, the heli was on the ground and its rotors weren't spinning at all. That seems odd to me. Second, the U.S. vetted and supplied this particular insurgent group TOW missiles, making it an accomplice to the destruction. This is worrying.

This is the potential problem at hand. Putin in the eyes of the West is difficult to predict (which being a former agent of the KGB, is no surprise). He plays games of brinkmanship that so far, could be argued has won more than lost in his favor. Russia has successfully knocked down Georgia, taken the Crimea, re-established itself as a player in the Middle East by buttressing Assad's regime, etc. So far, the West's response has been, in the eyes of Moscow, rather divided and tepid at best (yes, I know, it's far more complicated, but I digress). Yes, the sanctions have taken a toll, but if Putin is able to spin the sanctions as proof that the West is out to get Russia and only Putin and Russian nationalism can stand up to Western decadence, what does he have to lose?

With all due respect to some of the comments posted here in response to Jason's post, I don't think it's fear mongering at all to point out that Moscow likely will not be happy about this. Will it lead to nuclear war or Turkey declaring Article V? No, I doubt it, at least for now. Could it lead to other "incidents" that could lead to a larger regional conflict that NATO is unprepared for due to most of the NATO members having at best miniscule defense budgets? Possibly. It all depends on what happens at both the top and on the ground, and the problem here is that there are so many variable factors at play with so many actors in this region makes it difficult to predict. NATO has already stated they stand by Turkey's decision, and the images of the rebels blowing up a Russian Hind (The Hind apparently was blown up AFTER it was forced to the ground by rebel AAA fire) with an American-manufactured TOW missile likely is just the sort of images Putin is going to use to stir the Russian public into a nationalistic frenzy.

"See?! The decadent American Nazis REALLY are out to smother Russian comrades under their jackboots, by using Western weapons supplied to their Islamist toadies!"

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

With all due respect to some of the comments posted here in response to Jason's post, I don't think it's fear mongering at all to point out that Moscow likely will not be happy about this.

I didn't say he was fear mongering. I don't think it's fear mongering to point out that Moscow will not be happy about this. It's stating the obvious.

However I do think it's being slightly disingenuous to include comments like this...

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

A friend of mine (no, I will not say whom), has informed me that this has gotten worse.

1) Both aircrew ejected clean, then were captured and killed by Turkish backed Syrian rebels.

2) The Russian CSAR bird was fired on by a TOW. No word on if the chopper was hit or not.

It sounds (to me at least) that Jason is implying that he has information not in the public domain. That is fear mongering - the implication that "I know something you don't know (and I'm not going to tell you how I know) and it's bad" when the two points in question were already being reported in the media. In fact, the media were ahead of Jason's "source" as they were reporting that chopper had been hit.

[Anna Elizabeth]

Seriously boys, "check your preps"? "a friend has informed me"? That *is* fear mongering.

I think a great many people in the world live in a self-imposed bubble. I *used* to. I was once addicted to doom-and-gloom, planetary extinction, Apocalyptic warnings, all this stuffs. A good guy I know calls it "Fear Porn".

It can be a bad, scary world. I get threats online just for being myself. A nice young man tried to SWAT me when I told him I didn't need his advice or opinions on Atheist issues. But when we spend all our time consuming fearful paranoid news stories and expecting the worst, then that ends up being all we have in life.

I did betters. You can, too.

[Jason Weiser]

Oh good lord,
1) To all those saying my last sentence was fear mongering? Nope, it was a suggestion. Moments such as these, while unlikely to blow up in world ending conflagration, are not going to contribute to the general mirth of the planet right now. Methinks it is a good idea to make sure your preps are well, good. Does it mean head for the bunker? No. Does it mean do a once over of what you have and make sure it is ready to go? Yes.

2) A friend who is connected has information that yes, is now in the public domain. But, I do not want to say who that person is for a variety of reasons. He used to be active here, and I am doing this also precisely because I am trying NOT to start a damn panic.

When I got the news this morning, I had heard nothing that CONFIRMED the CSAR bird had been hit. Now it has been confirmed.

Look, I relayed some facts, then expressed an opinion. If that is not acceptable, then I wonder if the people responsible are being a bit reactionary themselves on far more than simply my tone, or not. Take it or leave it.

I am done for a while. Seriously.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I didn't say he was fear mongering. I don't think it's fear mongering to point out that Moscow will not be happy about this. It's stating the obvious.

However I do think it's being slightly disingenuous to include comments like this...



It sounds (to me at least) that Jason is implying that he has information not in the public domain. That is fear mongering - the implication that "I know something you don't know (and I'm not going to tell you how I know) and it's bad" when the two points in question were already being reported in the media. In fact, the media were ahead of Jason's "source" as they were reporting that chopper had been hit.

guys there are lots of people on this board who do have information that is not in the public domain - and those sources they have also have friends in the news media who could have reported it as well - and what Jason did isnt fear mongering - we are dealing with an unstable tyrant in Russia who has already put his country into three wars (Georgia, Ukraine and Syria) and who lives and dies by showing off his "manhood"

and the Turks shooting down that Su-24 is pretty much sticking a finger in his eye and saying "what are you going to do about it?" - and if that wasnt enough blowing away the SAR helo and killing the pilots in their chutes is not a way to make him cool down

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Olefin

guys there are lots of people on this board who do have information that is not in the public domain - and those sources they have also have friends in the news media who could have reported it as well - and what Jason did isnt fear mongering - we are dealing with an unstable tyrant in Russia who has already put his country into three wars (Georgia, Ukraine and Syria) and who lives and dies by showing off his "manhood"

and the Turks shooting down that Su-24 is pretty much sticking a finger in his eye and saying "what are you going to do about it?" - and if that wasnt enough blowing away the SAR helo and killing the pilots in their chutes is not a way to make him cool down

This.

[Olefin]

Fear mongering is trying to make something much bigger than it is

and it also depends on who you are dealing with in the equation - and if there is one man I would not trust to make rational decisions where he sees his countries interests being interfered with its Putin

now does that make me think he is going to do something really stupid? No actually he isnt that unbalanced for that - but do something rash and not well thought out that leads to other things - yeah that I could see

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Putin might be considered a tyrant but he is by no definition "unstable".
Everything he has done has made strategic sense for Russia.

For example, Putin didn't order the attack on the Ukraine simply because he was feeling a bit "unstable" or a bit "petulant" or because needed to prove his manhood that day, he had very well defined strategic reasons for doing so.
The attack on the Ukraine ensured that Russia has continued access to a large, capable (and important to Russian interests) maritime base in the Black Sea. A base that Russia was leasing from the Ukraine, a base that the Ukraine leadership had said that they were looking at cancelling the Russian leasing agreement and hence Russian access to.

[Raellus]

Putin has been quite rational. He's applied just enough force to get what he wants without serious repercussions (excepting sanctions).

That said, he may underestimate the West's reaction to his response to this shoot-down is. This is where things could get dicey. I'm really interested to see what his next move will be.

[rcaf_777]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

I am done for a while. Seriously.

See ya write if you find work

[Olefin]

And a base he could have kept access to without having to go to war, without having to piss the US and the Europeans off, and without any bloodshed.

In other words instead of doing the calm rational thought out process of just buying the Ukranians off and getting it with negoation instead he did the time honored "lets just beat the hell out of them and get it quick" approach

and look at the mess he is left with - if anything the Baltic states are even further parts of NATO, the old Warsaw Pact nations are even close to the West and you have Europe fiinally realizing that disarming to the point they did was pretty stupid

now he pokes his nose into Syria and gets burned - and by the Turks of all people (if there is one group of people the Russians do not like, after the Germans, its the Turks)

and again I am not saying he is unstable - but the man makes decisions too quickly and without anyone to counterbalance him or offer him real guidance beyond "sounds great to me!"

[Olefin]

Now if you want real fear mongering I could point out the timing of the shoot down as it applies to the game - TDM 2015 anyone?

(sorry couldnt resist)

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

And a base he could have kept access to without having to go to war, without having to piss the US and the Europeans off, and without any bloodshed.

In other words instead of doing the calm rational thought out process of just buying the Ukranians off and getting it with negoation instead he did the time honored "lets just beat the hell out of them and get it quick" approach

and look at the mess he is left with - if anything the Baltic states are even further parts of NATO, the old Warsaw Pact nations are even close to the West and you have Europe fiinally realizing that disarming to the point they did was pretty stupid

now he pokes his nose into Syria and gets burned - and by the Turks of all people (if there is one group of people the Russians do not like, after the Germans, its the Turks)

and again I am not saying he is unstable - but the man makes decisions too quickly and without anyone to counterbalance him or offer him real guidance beyond "sounds great to me!"

Yeah, you are.

Originally Posted by Olefin

guys there are lots of people on this board who do have information that is not in the public domain - and those sources they have also have friends in the news media who could have reported it as well - and what Jason did isnt fear mongering - we are dealing with an unstable tyrant in Russia who has already put his country into three wars (Georgia, Ukraine and Syria) and who lives and dies by showing off his "manhood"

and the Turks shooting down that Su-24 is pretty much sticking a finger in his eye and saying "what are you going to do about it?" - and if that wasnt enough blowing away the SAR helo and killing the pilots in their chutes is not a way to make him cool down

Unless you are referring to another tyrant in Russia?

(sorry couldn't resist)

[Olefin]

well ok then I am saying that - but I dont mean unstable in the Hitlerian mode where he could do something historically stupid (i.e. declaring war on the US when there was no reason to do it, insisting on defending Germany west of the Rhine instead of pulling everything to the other side, etc..)

a better way would be to say that I dont think he really thinks before he acts - he jumps too quickly and too emotionally - and while thats good in some professions its not good for the leader of a country that armed with nukes - as for him being a tyrant that i wont take back - face it one of the fastest ways to get dead in Russia right now is to oppose him publicly

and he is surrounded by men who basically rubber stamp everything he says - to me thats a tyrant - i.e. no one has the guts to say the Emperor has no clothes

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

a better way would be to say that I dont think he really thinks before he acts

Fair enough, your opinion.

I couldn't disagree with you more.

[Anna Elizabeth]

Oh well. Live lives in fear if you must. You aren't hurting me any.