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Venezuela in TW 2000
Some thoughts
The Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200's first coup attempt took place on February 4, 1992, and was led by Hugo Chávez. A second coup attempt on November 27, 1992 In 1998 Hugo Chavez is elected President He described himself as a Marxist Possible Soviet Ally in the War? or dose the US overthrow him?
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#2
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What's to say the government didn't clamp down hard on any opposition and institute ongoing, long term and effective martial law? T2K is a game based on an alternate history (originally future history). Why is there such a need from some parts to rewrite everything to fit the real world?
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IMC the chavezistas never got traction; the Soviets going full "nuke the shit out of everything" kept a right-wing Junta in charge in Venezuela and in exchange for whatever hard currency (ie gold) both MilGov and CivGov can come up with they'll sell oil to whomever. They're pretty important in T2k...
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South/Central America have always been very interesting to me. I love some of the ideas the Spanish Main module gave.
But I could never come up with an outline for the regional situation....
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Why not have the 1992 coup succeeded and Hugo become a Soviet ally it makes Cuba stronger and might give you some interesting encounters
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I will not hide. I will not be deterred nor will I be intimidated from my performing my duty, I am a Canadian Soldier. |
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I don't see the US standing by and letting Venezuela go Marxist in a 1st edition world for sure - but there is a good chance that given the continuing US-Soviet confrontation of the 1st edition that Chavez may have never been let go from prison
In a second edition timeline you could see Chavez being released and forming his political party as happened in our timeline However in both timelines Venezuela gets nuked in late 1997 as part of the attacks against oil production - after that the country would probably rapidly fall apart into a vicious fight over what was left given the locations of the refineries and other infrastructure in the country Caracas probably would not be hit by nukes - but you could see that city rapidly fall apart as panic would hit the country after so many of its cities would be hit by nukes going after their refineries and remember it depends on when the Soviets hit the refineries - were they hit by conventional weapons, Spetsnaz or Soviet supported guerillas before the war went nuclear or after the TDM when it was time to make refineries glow? About the only one that might still be standing would be the San Roque refinery as it specializes in paraffin production and its production rates are very small Last edited by Olefin; 01-18-2016 at 06:43 AM. |
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In my Caribbean campaign, Venezuela was a major point of interest.
The country itself was always fairly weak and disorganized. The nuking of refineries and major production centers quickly pushed the government over the edge. The place essentially ceased to function at anything but a local level as what army and police there were took their guns and walked off. Most major production ceased, but there were a lot of small wells out in the country, offshore or on islands that survived to at least some extent. The resulting chaos became a major playground for the regional players: Cuba, France, Holland, the UK and occasionally the US. The Europeans had only token garrisons in their Caribbean possessions (ABC islands for Holland, French Antilles, Barbados for the UK), but they had better institutions and discipline. The vast majority of their forces were in tact and they had defendable islands with limited room for guerilla action. Cuba and France were the major players. The Cuban government was a shadow of its former self and controlled only a third of the island, but they started way ahead of the Europeans and were intent on maintaining access to oil. France had little to spare in the region, but benefited greatly from relative order at home, and they were also very keen to diversify their sources of oil. Holland, the UK and the US were mainly there for color. Their resources were more limited, and the Dutch and Brits more interested in getting oil for local use than to send back to Europe. The PCs worked as mercenaries, mostly for the Dutch out of Aruba. They were protecting small oil sites, performing recon of enemy sites and doing some small raids. It was a fun little campaign before real life issues caused it to disband. |
#8
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Venezuela Mio
This what I have from a Caribbean Sourcebook I have been working on:
Venezuela Description In the last half of the 20th century, Venezuela's economic well-being fluctuated with the unstable demand for its primary export commodity, oil. Oil accounts for three-quarters of Venezuela's exports, half of its government's fiscal income, and a quarter of the nation's GDP. The 1970s were a particular boom period (due to the 1973 and 1978 oil crises in the US), but economic conditions worsened through the 1980s. (History through the 1980s matches RL) History 1989 – Perez is elected on an anti-neoliberal platform, but due to economic crises, is forced to counter that – minimizing stipends to the unemployed, raising the price of fuel locally, which in Caracas was immediately passed on as a price rise for public transportation – causing a week of riots. 1992 – Feb: Leftist coup attempt (includes Victor Chavez) against Perez. Chavez appears on TV for 1 minute, apologizing for the lives lost, but vows to return. Then goes to prison unti 1994. Perez survives another coup attempt in Nov. 1993 – Perez impeached for spending $17 million illegally to support the election of Violetta Chamorro in Nicaraqua. Raphael Caldera, campaigning on an anti-neoliberal platform, is elected in December with 30% of the vote to his nearest rival's 23%. 1994 - As one of his election promises, Caldera released Chávez and other army dissidents in March. 1996 – Caldera reverses himself on economic policy, adopting IMF programs in 1996 and 1997 that stipulated neoliberal adjustment and opened the state oil industry to private investment. In November, about 1.3 million workers walked off the job in a general public sector strike (increasing unrest, stirred by left wing parties with an eye to next election in 1999); and in late August 1998, Caldera obtained legislation from Congress enabling him to rule by decree. However, 1998 nuke strikes on oil industry – Oil market damaged; trade damaged. Chavez seizes power as Caldera gov’t fails. Strike actually by Soviets, as oil industrial base still owned by foreign firms, especially US oil companies. However, other than military backing, Chavez does not have assets in place to provide aid. Unrest in Caracas and major cities; lack of communication with villages. Chavez concentrates military on remaining fuel resources, more or less as a strongman marshalling all resources to extend control south fomr the coast. He could claim marxist brotherhood with Cuba, but the Soviets aren't really around to do anything for him. Lots of chaos, starvation, death, and lack of control in the hinterlands as you go south. hmmm. look for any ethnic/race/class issues. Interesting possibility - engineering aid (and possibily limited small arms and ammo) from (unnuked, uninvaded) Cuba for some fuel production. Military Navy: 2 German Type 209/1300-class SS, 6 Italian Lupo-class FF, 2 Almirante Clemente-class FF, 23 patrol craft, 4 Capana-class LST, 1 ex-US Terrebonne Parish-class LST. Army:
Home to an oil industry. – and nuked for it. 1994: suffers economic downturn due to falling oil prices and problems in banking industry. Possible Targets:
Note that Curacao also sufferes a nuke strike on its refinery, whcih happens to be in the middle of its capital and largest city. |
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Keep in mind a few things about the Dutch in the Antilles
The Marines aren't based just at Curacao - they are on Aruba as well and do exercises all the time on the other islands Also most likely they aren't going to sit in their barracks right next to the refinery as they see other refineries go up in nuclear fireballs - so most likely any attack on the refinery is going to hit with them dispersed either to the other islands or to the airfield in the north of the island which is outside any potential nuke radius of what the Russians were using typically to take out refineries also not every refinery was hit by nukes - as the canon says nuclear or conventional attack - having it taken out earlier in the war by conventional cruise missiles from a sub or a Spetsnaz operation out of Cuba is also a big possibility I would think that the Dutch and French getting into conflict in 1998 would definitely be part of the war in the Caribbean and could explain why the pirates in 2000 were thinking the ships they were building in Grenada would be so effective - i.e. possibly the French and Dutch naval ships were taken out in fighting between themselves leaving nothing but small patrol craft at most |
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Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean in 1997 The Commander Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean (Dutch: Commandement der Zeemacht in het Caribisch Gebied, COMNLCARIB) is responsible for the activities of all forces in the Caribbean who operate from four bases (3 bases on Curaçao and 1 on Aruba). The service branches, militias and volunteer corpses who operated in the Caribbean are: The Royal Netherlands Navy (Dutch: Koninklijke Marine). The 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP) of the Netherlands Marine Corps (Dutch: Korps Mariniers) which consist of the 31st, 32nd and 33rd infantry companies. The Netherlands Naval Aviation Service (Dutch: Marine-Luchtvaartdienst, MLD). The Royal Netherlands Air Force (Dutch: Koninklijke Luchtmacht, KLu). The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee (Dutch: Koninklijke Marechaussee, KMar), military police. Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (Dutch: kustwacht voor de Nederlandse Antillen en Aruba, NA&A CG) (1). The Antillean Militia (Dutch: Antilliaanse Militie, ANTMIL) which consist of three platoons (2). The Aruban Militia (Dutch: Arubaanse Militie, ARUMIL) and the Curaçao Militia (Dutch: Curaçao Militie, CURMIL) which consist of one platoon each (3). The Volunteer Corps Netherlands Antilles (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Nederlandse Antillen, VKNA) is made up of three volunteer corpses namely the Volunteer Corps Aruba (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Aruba, VKA), Volunteer Corps Curaçao (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao, VKC) and the Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten). Bases and deployments of Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean Curacao: Parera Naval Base Parera Naval Base, the main naval base for the Royal Netherlands Navy and headquarters of the Commander Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean where the station ship (Karel Doorman (M) class multi-purpose frigate) HNLMS Van Amstel, one permanent support ship HNLMS Pelikaan (4), six Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats and two P-class patrol boats (5) operated from. Curacao: Marine Barracks Suffisant Marine Barracks Suffisant (6), the main marine base which house the 31st and 32nd Infantry Company (7) of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (8), a detachment of the Antillean Militia (Dutch: Antilliaanse Militie, ANTMIL) which is made up of a small training cadre and one infantry platoon, the Curaçao Militia and the Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao (VKC) which is made up of some 120 volunteers. Curaçao: Hato Airfield Hato Airfield, the main military airfield with two Fokker F-27-M transport aircraft and two P3C-Orions. Aruba: Savaneta Marine Barracks Marine Barracks Savaneta (Dutch: Marinierskazerne Suffisant, MSKSUF) houses the 33rd infantry company of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group who also serves as a military education and training unit for the Antillean Militia which is made up of a training cadre and two infantry platoons, Volunteer Corps Aruba (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Aruba, VKA) which is made up of some 100 volunteers and the Aruban Militia. Sint Maarten The Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten) which is made up of some 120 volunteers. The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee has some 20 personal on the island of Sint Maarten to assist the local police. Notes (1) The Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard has approximately 160 personnel. Of these, 140 come from the Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten and 20 from the Royal Netherlands Navy. These 160 consist mostly of personnel actually deployed to carry out operations and the occupation of the Coast Guard bases located on Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. (2) The Antillean Militia consist of local conscript personnel and a small volunteer cadre numbering some 148 who form three infantry platoons. The Antillean Militia is trained, clothed and equipped by the Marine Corps as (conscript) marines. When mobilized the Antillean Militia will be made up of eight company-sized security detachments each with company strength of 148 men (totaling some 1,184 men) who would be commanded by Netherlands Marine Corps officers and sub-officers. (3) The Aruban Militia and the Curaçao Militia are unlike the Antillean Militia made up of professional soldiers and have their own officers. (4) HNLMS Pelikaan (A801) can carry 3 trucks, 6 land cruisers, 2 water trucks, 27 pallets of goods and equipment and a total of 40 marines. (5) There are four P-class patrol boats who are operated by the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (NA&A CG). Two operate out of Curacao, one from Aruba and one patrol boat from Sint Maarten. Named P 1, P 2,P 3 and P 4 they have a displacement of 35 tons fully loaded, a speed of 18 and a complement of 6. (6) Officially known as Detachment of Navy Base Parera, known until 1978 as Marine Barracks Suffisant (Dutch: Marinierskazerne Suffisant, MSKSUF). (7) One company consist of a company staff, three infantry platoons, a combat support group and a service support group. (8) Whit the outbreak of the Sino-Soviet War in 1995 the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps had station in the Caribbean the 21st Infantry Company stationed at Naval Base Parera (twenty-four men) and the 22nd Infantry Company stationed at Marine Barracks Savaneta (twenty-five men) part of the 2 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Tweede Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 2AGGP). When in July 1996 the Netherlands began to mobilize in responds due the West German Bundeswehr crossing the inter-German border into East Germany the two companies where redeployed back to the Netherlands. The two companies where replaced by the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP).
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#11
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#12
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Would love to see some numbers and TO&E's for these types of forces...
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Actually working on some numbers and TO&E's for them - the Netherlands Marines were a formidable force by Caribbean standards - plus you have to add in basically a company between the two militias as well as the MP's assigned there as well that were spread between the islands
and given what was going on in Europe there is a good possibility that some of their surviving ships may have gone to the Caribbean as well |
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If the Soviet nuclear strike on the Isla Refinery happen than there will be no naval base for the Royal Netherlands Navy to use, its located right next to the refinery,
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That's the question with the Netherlands Antilles - did Curacao get nuked or not? And even if it did the goal of raiding Aruba in Gateway to the Spanish Main pretty much shows Aruba didn't - so any naval units could have moved there.
there are two ports there that Royal Netherlands Navy could use even if Curacao was destroyed and I don't see the commanders there leaving everything they had right next to the refinery in Curacao after the nukes started dropping - they cant move the base but they can disperse supplies, men, equipment and ships as much as they can - in fact they probably started doing so as soon as the war in Europe went nuclear - you cant move the refinery but you don't need to keep all your eggs right next to it to get fried along with it |
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Nobody is going to invade Aruba or Curacao, Venezuela has other priorities, thus the main focus will be the defense of the Netherlands part of the island of Sint Maarten.
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I still don't understand why the Dutch would have sent any troops to the West Indies when every other soldier was withdrawn to Holland when the French invaded, and most Dutch units have been almost wiped out and rendered ineffective, or at best operating as guerilla resistance fighters.
Where's the logic? Where are these troops coming from? How are they being supported when the Dutch government/military has effectively been destroyed?
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem Last edited by Legbreaker; 01-27-2016 at 08:26 PM. |
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I may have missed it but I have yet to see any reference to a nuclear attack on the Carribean, Central America or the north coast of South America in any of the GDW sourcebooks.
If the Panama Canal wasn't a nuclear target then I doubt that the French rocket launching site in French Guyana, or any local oil refinery or military base was a nuclear target either. The Dutch forces in the Antilles are a bit on the light side. One Marine company, a frigate, a few patrol aircraft and some para-military and police. The Dutch also have their hands full in Europe with the nuclear attacks on the Netherlands and the French occupation of the Rhine. I doubt their will be any reinforcement, and Dutch forces in the Antilles will be low on spares, ammunition etc. There is the possibility of some help from NATO allies in the region. The Americans are pre-occupied with their own problems but there is still likely to be some US forces in Panama, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Unknown if such forces are MilGov or CivGov. This is a non-canon variant writeup from Orrin Ladd. http://t2k.homestead.com/southamerica.htm Also likely some British forces in the region. British territories in the region include the British Virgin Islands, Caymen Islands, Montserrat and Turks and Caicos. Also Bermuda in the Atlantic. British had forces in Belize until the mid-1990's; RAF Harrier flight, Army helicopters and some infantry (Belize still has a British Army training base). Missile Frigate usually based in Caribbean and certainly some para-military and police forces on islands, and probably some small military forces. Most of the rest of the English speaking Caribbean is also British Commonwealth and is closer politically and culturally with Britain than it is with America, although Jamaica is likely to be a hell hole. . |
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the Netherlands Marines have been posted to the Antilles for quite some time - there were there during the Cold War period and thus would have been there for the war start - they have been there to deter aggression from Venezuela since the 30's
Assuming a V1 timeline where the Cold War never ended they wouldn't have drawn down their forces there most likely thus at war start you are looking at the 3rd Marine Battalion with three infantry companies (two on Curacao, one on Aruba) plus a company of local militia (two platoons on Curacao, one on Aruba) as well as a brigade of military police (they serve as security for both the military facilities as well as the border guard and security at the airports ) numbering around 200 or so men plus the 160 men of the Coast Guard The militia platoons are trained by the Netherlands Marines and once trained are Netherlands Marines - thus you basically have a standing reserve Marine company to reinforce the 3rd Battalion plus reservists who used to be members of the platoons that could be used as well. Given the fact that there were Soviet forces on Cuba and Soviet Naval units active in the Caribbean and the losses in shipping most likely the Marines stayed where they were - and the bases there might have become very important after the French invasion especially for what was left of the Dutch fleet (let alone would have been one of the last airbases they had left) As far as nukes in South America in the V1 canon it does mention nuclear strikes against refineries in Venezuela if I remember correctly The V2 timeline has more details including the short nuclear war between Argentina and Brazil Keep in mind if you are looking at a 2013 timeline that force of Marines would now be only the single company at Aruba - the other two were stood down since the 90's Last edited by Olefin; 01-27-2016 at 08:28 AM. |
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The Antillean Militia consisted of local conscript personnel and a small volunteer cadre; in 1985 their authorised strength was 5/18/125 (148). The Antillean Militia were trained, clothed and equipped by the Marine Corps as "(conscript) marines, special services Netherlands Antilles" (mariniers van bijzondere diensten (zeemiliciën) Nederlandse Antillen). The three infantry platoons together formed an infantry company which in times of crisis or war would operate as security infantry in support of the marine units stationed in the Netherlands Antilles (2 or 3 Amphibious Combat Group). On mobilisation the Antillean Militia would fill eight company-sized security detachments for which Marine Corps cadre would be mobilised in the Netherlands (32 officers and 8 sub-officers in 1981
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That amount of troops, even light infantry, would make quite a force for defending the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba - the question again is if Curacao is nuked - if it is then you would lose much of those forces in the attacks (you would think several of the Curacao militia units would be destroyed in the attack) - however the ones formed in Aruba would still be around as would any moved to guard the other islands
Given that you could see that 1998-2000 may have been marked by several bloody encounters between the French and the Dutch - which could explain the reduced numbers of French troops on duty in Martinique and Guyana - i.e. the numbers are down due to fighting with the Netherlands Marines (both regular troops, current serving militia and the mobilized security troops) in the Antilles would also explain the large size of the New American force they were building up to take on Aruba - they aren't going to take on a scattered force of police and militia they are going to take on what's left of the Marine forces there after the fighting with the French - which probably would still be pretty large by Caribbean military standards in 2000 |
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The Gateway to the Spanish Main, if I remember correctly (can confirm it when I get home later) mentions the target of the pirate fleet that is being built by the captive shipbuilders as Aruba. That fleet is being financed by New America
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Wel; any pirate fleet will get a surprise, the Royal Netherlands Navy with a hot or cold war with the French is not going to ask who they are, but starts shooting as soon as the come in range.
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I'll point out that while likely, it's not certain that there is a Franco-Dutch hot war in the Caribbean. Local commanders will have a lot of latitude given the distance from home, and it's possible that local detente or even limited cooperation is possible. Maybe not out of the question given an instinct for europeans to band together in the face of other hostiles. May even be situational island to island.
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Not exactly.
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The document is basically worthless, and the gold (along with the weaponry) is just payment for the kidnapping.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem |
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