Venezuela in TW 2000

[Olefin]

You are right - New America isnt directly funding the fleet - however the effort to kidnap the girl is providing the gold and the weapons that are leading to the creation of the pirate fleet.

And the target is Aruba

"The shared dream of both men is to sack and pillage the rich ports of the Spanish Main with Aruba, the oil rich island in the Dutch Antilles, being their first major target"

That right there makes it pretty clear that Aruba didn't get nuked. And that big group of pirates is probably needed because of the Marines that are still at Aruba - you don't need that many men to take on a platoon of militia and some local cops.

[lordroel]

Originally Posted by Olefin

That right there makes it pretty clear that Aruba didn't get nuked. And that big group of pirates is probably needed because of the Marines that are still at Aruba - you don't need that many men to take on a platoon of militia and some local cops.

So if Aruba is not nuked then any attacker, minus the French who do have the firepower will get a nasty surprise when they approach the island of Aruba.

Also i was think at the time of the war the Royal Netherlands Navy had about 22 frigates and 19 minehunters in service, what would the combat loss be for them as i would inmangen with the main naval base of Den Helder in range of French air strikes some of the Royal Netherlands Navy remaining schips would go to Aruba where they would be somewhat safer.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by lordroel

Also i was think at the time of the war the Royal Netherlands Navy had about 22 frigates and 19 minehunters in service, what would the combat loss be for them as i would inmangen with the main naval base of Den Helder in range of French air strikes some of the Royal Netherlands Navy remaining schips would go to Aruba where they would be somewhat safer.

Why? They are still technically part of Nato and the greater war effort. It's quite likely they were put to work escorting convoys across the Atlantic, or in the case of the minesweepers, keeping the North Sea clear of mines. Those that survived to 2000 are very likely to be in the same situation as virtually any other ship of any other nation - out of fuel, very low on ammunition, and very probably nowhere near home port.

The navy possess perhaps the only units that survived the French "annexation" in something resembling good order - they're of little use repelling a land attack, and throwing them at the French navy would be too obviously suicidal to even contemplate.

[Olefin]

Actually having whatever navy they have left be either at Aruba or in British bases would be the most likely place for them - and if Aruba still has fuel (and oil rich pretty much says they do) then they would be needed there to defend the place - but most likely it would be a small force at best - probably at most another frigate and one or two of the minesweepers - which by 2000 naval standards is quite a force when you add it to what was already there plus commandeered private ships turned into patrol boats

[lordroel]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

The navy possess perhaps the only units that survived the French "annexation" in something resembling good order - they're of little use repelling a land attack, and throwing them at the French navy would be too obviously suicidal to even contemplate.

So the remaining navy ships are hold up in naval base Den Helder which would have some of the last remaining Hawk and Patriots batteries the Netherlands has protection them.

The Netherlands has it own small gas and oil field located in the province of Drenthe, called the Schoonebeek oil field which has a total amount of 1 billion barrels and in peace time had a total output of some 3,000 barrels per day, also the Groningen gas field is there wich is the largest natural gas field in Europe and the tenth-largest in the world, so if the Free-Netherlands government mange to keep them running they have no worry about oil and gas and also something to trade with the German states if needed.

[Rainbow Six]

I always thought it possible that any surviving Dutch warships in Europe would have ended up in the United Kingdom, most likely Portsmouth.

I do have a brief write up of a possible evacuation of the Dutch Royal Family to the UK on my website.

http://www.twilight2000files.com/page64.html

[lordroel]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I always thought it possible that any surviving Dutch warships in Europe would have ended up in the United Kingdom, most likely Portsmouth.

Why Portsmouth so far i now Den Helder was not hit by a Soviet nuclear strike, it is in un-occupied Netherlands, home to the largest naval base of the Royal Netherlands navy and most likely the most defended place in un-occupied Netherlands.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by lordroel

Why Portsmouth so far i now Den Helder was not hit by a Soviet nuclear strike, it is in un-occupied Netherlands, home to the largest naval base of the Royal Netherlands navy and most likely the most defended place in un-occupied Netherlands.

I think it may come down to how hot the war is between the French and the Dutch - from how V1 describes it the Dutch are actively fighting the French using guerrilla raids and other ways to hit them back - given that having their remaining Navy stay in Dutch ports will expose them to French attacks - and they only have so many SAM's to go around

whereas having them go to Portsmouth puts them out of danger from French air attacks

[Rainbow Six]

Mainly because I was writing an Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom at the time, not a Survivor’s Guide to the Netherlands.

But if you want a logical reason there’s very little to stop the French bombarding Den Helder until they have totally destroyed the entire base and every vessel there. Or if they don’t want to do that simply blockading the base and preventing any Dutch vessels getting in and out.

France isn’t at War with the UK so in my opinion realpolitik means that the probability of the French bombarding and / or blockading Portsmouth are considerably less than the probability of them bombarding and / or blockading Den Helder.

EDIT. Essentially, what Olefin just said.

[lordroel]

Originally Posted by Olefin

I think it may come down to how hot the war is between the French and the Dutch - from how V1 describes it the Dutch are actively fighting the French using guerrilla raids and other ways to hit them back - given that having their remaining Navy stay in Dutch ports will expose them to French attacks - and they only have so many SAM's to go around

whereas having them go to Portsmouth puts them out of danger from French air attacks

So you are saying have the remaining ships of the Royal Netherlands navy go to Portsmouth thereby reducing the risk of Den Helder which is not longer a major treat for the French of being leveled by them.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Mainly because I was writing an Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom at the time, not a Survivor’s Guide to the Netherlands.

But if you want a logical reason there’s very little to stop the French bombarding Den Helder until they have totally destroyed the entire base and every vessel there. Or if they don’t want to do that simply blockading the base and preventing any Dutch vessels getting in and out.

France isn’t at War with the UK so in my opinion realpolitik means that the probability of the French bombarding and / or blockading Portsmouth are considerably less than the probability of them bombarding and / or blockading Den Helder.

EDIT. Essentially, what Olefin just said.

Totally logical for this to happen, and the Dutch do have close military links with Britain.

[Legbreaker]

Ports in both the UK and Germany are quite likely. UK for the frigates (they're more likely to have been used for escort duty) and Germany for the sweepers. Bound to be the odd exception, but on the whole that's where they're probably going to be (if not sunk).

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

Totally logical for this to happen, and the Dutch do have close military links with Britain.

Also keep in mind that the minesweepers don't have the range to make it to the US unless they refueled en route - so the most likely destination for them is going to be either the UK, Germany or Norway - and Portsmouth would be the easiest escape route

[Slappy]

Interesting article in the post today regarding Venezuela. Doesn't mean that this happens in a T2K timeline. But they don't need WWIII to happen to collapse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...9&kwp_1=268845

[lordroel]

Originally Posted by Slappy

Interesting article in the post today regarding Venezuela. Doesn't mean that this happens in a T2K timeline. But they don't need WWIII to happen to collapse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...9&kwp_1=268845

The only way that they can prevent collapse if there is a major war in the Middle East which pushes up the oil prizes giving the Regime money to spend.

[Slappy]

True, but oddly their dysfunction and inability to produce oil is one of the things holding up prices, at least on the margin.

[RN7]

British Forces in Belize/Caribbean in 1990/91

Belize
Army: 1,200 troops
1 Infantry battalion
1 Armoured reconnaissance troop (Scimitar)
1 Field artillery battery (105mm guns)
1 Engineer squadron
1 Helicopter flight (3x Gazelle AH-1)
RAF: 300 troops
1 FGA flight (4x Harrier GR-3)
1 Helicopter flight (4x Puma)
1 RAF Regiment detachment (4x Rapier SAM)
Royal Navy West Indies Detachment
1 Missile Destroyer/Frigate (Lynx helicopters)

[kalos72]

One thing that struck me, since my campaign is all in Texas, I have researched ALOT of the local resources and such.

Going canon, there are least 5 refineries still operational in Texas potentially. Oklahoma another 5 or 6....there are ALOT of refineries that did not get hit by nukes.

Why nuke Venezuela or Aruba or Mexico even if you left so much refining capability in the US itself?

[Legbreaker]

Don't forget that

"With certain exceptions, only places that received 0.5 megaton of more"

were listed on the strike list. There's nothing to say smaller warheads weren't used, or even conventional munitions - how hard is it to destroy a refinery when a simple match can set off a catastrophic event?
Sure, some may not be completely flattened, but given refineries were high on the list of targets, how much use are they really?

Look at the Ploesti oil fields and refineries in Romania. The Soviets have sunk a great deal of resources into getting that working again, even at a radically reduced production rate.

"The oil fields near Ploesti contain one of the few remaining refineries in the world, and are occupied by the last major tank force extant: the Soviet 3rd Guards Tank Army."

So the Soviets have devoted an entire Army to protecting the area, even while other areas were under intense pressure from enemy forces.
Can anyone say the Texas and Oklahoma oils fields and refineries would be any less important? Why haven't the Americans, the Mexicans or even the Soviets in Division Cuba camped on top of them as the Soviets have in Romania?
My opinion - because they're damaged beyond practical repair using current resources and manpower. That may change in the coming years, but it won't happen any time soon.

[kalos72]

IDK, thats a stretch to me. I think its just another glaring gap in the information they came up with to write the storyline. Even they say it only took out 60% of the US refining capability, why hit non allied sovereign nations if you left 60% of the US capacity intact?

The Mexicans/Division Cuba wouldn't bomb them, since they were in fact trying to annex Texas.

Unless your talking cruise missiles with conventional warheads, not sure if the Soviets even had them tbh, there are no other forces on American soil to hit them.

If, all those 130+ refineries were hit, all command centers and bomber wings/missile ranges, power plants (including nuclear) and major industrial centers I think we would be calling the game Gamma World not T2K.

[Legbreaker]

The KGB have had quite a number of sleeper agents within the US during the cold war. It would be a reasonable assumption for them to have had contingency orders to follow in case of war, with many of them assigned to sabotage industry vital to the war effort. Refineries are a prime target for this sort of activity - only takes a few small charges planted in various locations to take the entire facility out of action.
Keeping the refineries in close to pristine condition radically changes the game setting. It allows for the quick production of petroleum based fuels and large scale movements by large forces (see the destruction of the US 5th ID as an example of what would happen). The lack of fuel is vital to the setting.

The Soviets had a number of SLCMs during the 1980s and onward. These were/are more than capable of rendering refineries inoperable too. Then there's their strategic bomber force which could certainly reach some areas of the US (Alaska as a certainty, other areas depending on aircraft model and a number of other factors). These too didn't have to be armed with nukes.

They didn't have to hit every last possible target either. Just the threat of an attack would send the workers scurrying for cover and with only a skeleton staff remaining in most facilities (at best) accident would likely increase in both number and severity. Some facilities could in fact have been damaged just because there wasn't enough of the right people left to operate it correctly!

And you're right about the neutral countries. Why indeed bother with them when you're actual enemy still has the capability you're trying to deny them? The canon seems to support this by mentioning the attacks on neutrals.

It would seem fairly clear after properly assessing the information provided in the game materials that the US (and other combatant nations of course) have very little industrial capability remaining.

[kalos72]

Valid points for sure.

However, I think the "60%" comment proves that these 5 refineries in Texas and others I am talking about would not be hit. Not necessarily fully functional without the skills/infrastructure of course, but not destroyed out right.

Also, I think it gives some doubt to the extent of the damage of the neutral nations refinery capacity. Again, the "60%" comment lends to the idea of perhaps only the major facilities being taken out while other smaller ones being ignored or left to the chaos that ensured after the bombs dropped.

[Olefin]

FYI the Americans have camped out armies in Oklahoma and in California to guard the oil facilities - that's what the troops are doing in Oklahoma and Bakersfield - and also why there is an armored brigade guarding an oil refinery in Illinois

you still have refineries working in the US and power being generated - but its very spotty and here and there (for instance the nuclear power station that is still up and running in Colorado that they got the people to run the Corpus Christi when they got her back) - and you don't have a lot of reliable transportation to get from one place to another with what you do have

and as the game says most of what is being made is going for lubricants and to keep the few US armored units in business as well as provide a trickle of fuel to keep some transport aircraft and the like in business

obviously the US still has some industrial capacity remaining - the problem is getting the goods that are still being made distributed and getting raw materials and power to the facilities that are still intact - which is why the US pulled an armored brigade out of Texas to retake Memphis - they need the Mississippi to be able to transport goods

as for Texas obviously at least one refinery is still very much in business a la Red Star - again its just a case of who gets to have all that fuel


As for nuking the neutrals - the big reason is that they aren't going to hit back (with the exception of the French) - so hitting Venezuela or Curacao or Algeria isn't going to get you nuked back - whereas there is a point where either the US or Russians say enough is enough and launch everything they have left - and then it is Gamma World or Aftermath

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by kalos72

Valid points for sure.

However, I think the "60%" comment proves that these 5 refineries in Texas and others I am talking about would not be hit.

Where is the "60%" figure coming from?

[kalos72]

Howling Wilderness page 10, although I do have it backwards. It destroyed 60%, leaving 40% active.

[Legbreaker]

The nukes destroyed over 60%. The remainder was absolutely not left intact, and definitely not 40%. It specifically states in the very next sentence there was "other destruction".
It's always best to take what's written in it's full context.

[kalos72]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

The nukes destroyed over 60%. The remainder was absolutely not left intact, and definitely not 40%. It specifically states in the very next sentence there was "other destruction".
It's always best to take what's written in it's full context.

Well, I am not going to go far down this slippery slope here but....

It specified a number 60%. Over 60%, meaning some portion of the remainder was functional. There is no "definitely" in that paragraph, except over 60% of the US refinery capability was destroyed.

And the very next sentence "This (destroying over 60% of the US refinery capability), in combination with the other destruction, effectively eliminated electrical power generation and industrial facilities." does not mention anything about refineries.

In context, using just whats written and not assumed, there IS something close to 40% of the US refinery capability that was NOT destroyed in the nuclear exchange. What the state of those locations is come December 2000 is up for debate...

[Legbreaker]

No, you're missing the point. The over 60% figure was nukes only. It does not include the other cause of destruction which as previously demonstrated are many.

[kalos72]

I dont think I am missing anything, just saying that although canon indicates that "over 60%" has been hit with a nuke, everything left is open entirely to our own interpretations.

There is no "definite" outcome for the other 40%ish...

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

how hard is it to destroy a refinery when a simple match can set off a catastrophic event?

Actually, you don't even need a match. In the TV series Life Without People, it shows that just leaving a functioning refinery unattended will cause its explosive demise. The sections of a refinery depend upon raw materials moving along bit by bit in an uninterrupted chain -- Most refinery explosions have taken place because some part of this progression did not happen, sometimes only for a few hours. Things get backed up, concentrations of hydrocarbons occurs where there shouldn't be concentrations, temperatures rise, and BOOM.

It's a long, tedious, difficult process to properly turn off a refinery complex. And with war at full gallop, no one is going to want to turn off functioning refineries deliberately.