YaATW2KT: Cuba and the Caribbean

[sglancy12]

In my time line and gazetteer I have Cuba as having ducked out of their obligations to their Soviet masters and managing to avoid most of the damage of the Twilight War. Following the limited strategic nuclear strikes, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela (lead by Hugo Chavez) decide it's time to kick the US while it's down and proceed take every opportunity to undermine any US allies left in the area, as well as strike covertly against the US.

For instance, it this "Caribbean Socialist Alliance" that helped get the Soviet Division Cuba off the Island and into Mexico. They also may have had a hand in the Communist coup that seized power in Mexico. They have helped plunge Columbia into civil war by supporting the FARC, and revitalized the FMLN in El Salvador. They're picking off the various islands of the Caribbean where they can, and may even have troops in Mexico serving in Mexican livery in order to keep their presence secret.

Under this alternative timeline, the Mexican and Venezuelan oilfields didn't get nuked by the USSR to deny them to the US. Instead Mexico's got nuked after the Invasion of the US southwest by the US in an attempt to disrupt the invasion... and it worked. Mexico's communist/PRI alliance collapses into civil war and the invasion force ends up marooned in the Southwest and Texas. Seeing what happened to their proxy Mexico, the Cubans and Venezuelans are being more careful about provoking America.

Now, having read Sir John Hackett's The Third World War: The Untold Story I was struck by his take on Cuba. Cuba sits out the war, claiming to the soviets that they are just waiting for the right moment to strike the Yankee imperialists. The Soviets interpret this as a complete betrayal. The American's are convinced the Cubans are going to attack at any second. Therefore the US sets about an air war to degrade Cuba's air defense capability and sink it's navy. They Cubans, hoping to avoid an actual invasion by US Marines, ignore every provocation, while simultaneously keeping the population loyal by pointing out how the Americans are actually attacking, just like Fidel always said they would.

I like this option for my TW2K timeline. Cuba gets knocked around pretty bad by conventional US military airstrikes, loses ships, subs, etc. But isn't nuked, and survives to be a real problem in the Caribbean for US interests, especially when teamed up Hugo Chavez's Venezuela and Daniel Ortega's Nicaragua. Might manage to run the US and other NATO members out of their territories in the Caribbean or force an evacuation of the remnants of the Canal Zone. Which, by the way, I figure the Sovs would have to have nuked.

My motive for this is to put some commie-style enemies right on America's doorstep that could cause more trouble than the isolated Division Cuba or the Soviet units in Alaska and British Columbia. Those guys have got so many problems of their own they hardly pose a threat to anyone outside the range of their AK-47s. Without support from the USSR those forces main concern is going to be finding their next meal.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing