Iraq

[chico20854]

Working on our alternative take on the Twilight Universe, the timeline in the RDF Sourcebook seems to be open for another look. Webstral, in his The Storm in Germany, detailed the effects of Desert Storm on the Soviet Union. Going from that, we are trying to figure out what Iraq does during the war. We are assuming that the USSR gives some assistance in rebuilding the Iraqi military, but in the end it doesn’t look too different than it did in the mid 1990s IRL.

I see five options:

1) Iraq remains neutral unless invaded by NATO forces.
2) Kuwait Invasion: In a repeat of August 1990, Iraq invades Kuwait. Sometime after CENTCOM begins to deploy ground troops, Iraq invades Kuwait but does not enter any other nation unless NATO forces attack Iraqi forces from that other nation (Iran, Saudi Arabia or Turkey).
3) Same as above, but Iraq also invades Saudi Arabia.
4) Iran Invasion: Iraq chooses to re-start the Iran-Iraq War. At some time after the Soviet invasion of Iran begins, Iraq invades Iran (but not any other nation unless NATO forces attack Iraqi forces from another nation), when Iraq replies in kind.
5) All-out War: Iraq declares a general war against NATO.

Note that what may seem logical to us doesn’t necessarily appear to be the same for Saddam. If we were in his situation in 1990, would we have invaded Kuwait?

Some thoughts I have on the options:

1) Saddam could sit tight, realizing the damage his military took in 1991 and that the USSR is unlikely to provide much in the way of material support, as it is engaged in wars in Korea, China, Iran, the Balkans, Germany and Norway. I like this option the best as it makes the war in Iran as described in RDF Sourcebook most likely.

2) and 3) Realizing that the Coalition that united against him in 1990-1 is engaged in the same wars as the USSR, Saddam figures that it is unlikely that the Coalition will be able to muster a force similar to 1991 to stop him this time – he might succeed this time, and given the disparity of forces, Kuwait is most likely a goner (after 1991 the Kuwaiti military still trained with the goal of resisting Iraq for 48-72 hours before US and GCC reinforcements arrived to relieve them).

4) Showing the strength of his alliance with/allegiance to the USSR, and with the idea of gaining the same valuable resources he tried to grab in 1980 while scoring a relatively easy victory (due to the split between the NEC and Pasdaran and with the Transcaucasian Front advancing rapidly), Saddam makes another try at western Iran.

5) 2, 3 and 4 above, all combined.

I doubt we’ll reach any sort of consensus on this, I’m trying to develop relative probabilities of the options above, (or any other ways at looking at the situation). My gut feeling is:
Option 1: 50%
Option 2: 15%
Option 3: 12%
Option 4: 15%
Option 5: 8%

We'll probably end up using some sort of random options resolution when we wargame things out, hence the probabilities. And after the TDM all these calculations fall apart...

Thanks!
(Oh, and can we try to keep this both civil and on-topic?)