Falkland Islands in T2K

[avantman42]

Originally Posted by Raellus

With the UK fully embroiled in the Twilight War in Europe, it wouldn't have the forces to defend the islands from a dertimined Argentine invasion.

Agreed, and I think that's similar to the situation in 1982. In 1982, Argentina didn't expect Britain to fight for the islands. There was some evidence to back up such a belief. Nicholas Ridley, the Minister of State, visited the islands in 1980 to try and convince the islanders to accept a leaseback proposal (where sovereignty would be transferred to Argentina, but Britain would lease back the islands for something like 100 years). In 1981, the British Nationality Act removed British nationality from many Falkland Islanders, and it was announced that HMS Endurance was to be scrapped, with no replacement planned.

Originally Posted by Raellus

On the other hand, why would Argentina want the islands in the first place? The main reason they tried to take them in '82 was to rally public support for the unpopular military government. When the UK took the islands back, the Argentine government quickly collapsed.

I don't think that that ploy would work again and I don't see any compelling reasons for the Argies to invest any blood and treasure in taking the islands back a second time.

I agree that the 1982 invasion was partly an attempt to get public support, but I don't think that wholly explains it. Argentina has long claimed the islands, and periodically does something about it. Some 20th-century examples:

1903: Argentina acquires administration of a meterological station in the South Orkney Islands, and claims it as evidence of a transfer of sovereignty throughout all the Falkland Islands Dependencies
1927: Argentina asks the International Postal Union to accept Argentine jurisdition over all the Falkland Islands Dependencies
1947: Argentina issues stamps for use in 'Malvinas and Dependencies'
1960: UN Resolution 1514 calls for an end to colonialism; Britain lists the Islands as a colony and Argentina objects
1964: An Argentine pilot lands a Cessna 172 on Stanley racecourse, plants Argentine flag and hands over letter declaring Argentine sovereignty
1966: Aerolineas Argentinas DC4 lands on Stanley racecourse after being hijacked by 20 terrorists calling themselves 'Condors' who take 4 Islanders prisoner but surrender after 1 night
1966: Argentine marines dropped off at night by submarine Santiago del Estero to reconnoitre potential landing beaches near Stanley
1968: Small private plane with 3 Argentines on board, sponsored by Argentine press, crash-lands in Stanley
1973: Newly-elected Argentine Peronist government renews sovereignty claim in the UN
1975: Air travellers from Falklands now required to obtain clearance from Argentine Foreign Ministry (all air travel to/from the islands is via Argentina)
1976: British Antarctic Survey ship RRS Shackleton fired-on by Argentine gunboat
1976: Argentina sets up illegal and clandestine military base on Southern Thule, a Falkland Islands Dependency situated south of South Georgia
1977: Argentine sailors land on the island of Morrell in the South Sandwich Islands, claiming they are undertaking scientific research
1977: Britain secretly sends a nuclear submarine and two frigates to the South Atlantic in response to Argentine preparations for naval 'manoeuvres' which then halt
1981: Argentina protests to UN over lack of progress on sovereignty dispute

All the above happened before General Galtieri's junta seized power in Argentina. I honestly think the issue is a big deal in Argentina, and has been for some time. You and I might not see a compelling reason for them to invest blood and treasure in taking the islands, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Argentinians did.