South Africa

[Rainbow Six]

I think that the fall of communism in Europe was one of the major catalysts for the whole collapse of apartheid (I remember reading quite a bit about this in a book about the 1995 Rugby World Cup final of all things), so if you follow the V1 Timeline I think it's highly likely that apartheid would survive, at least until the nukes started coming down, at which point a break up of South Africa similar to that described in Larry Bond's "Vortex" is probably quite likely.