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01-18-2011, 07:48 AM
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Apocalypse 1962
An alternate TEOTWAWKI: What if the Cuban Missile Crisis precipitated WW3?
A timeline, and an overview of strategic forces in October 1962 follow. ===== Of all the superpower standoffs, the Cuban Missile Crisis is the closest the United States and Soviet Union came to nuclear war. The crisis had several causes: - the ongoing U.S. campaign against Cuba; - the Bay of Pigs invasion ; - Operation Mongoose - a covert action program aimed at toppling the Castro regime; - the imposition of an economic embargo from February 1962; - the deployment of Jupiter intermediate range ballistic missiles in Italy and Turkey and Thor IRBMs in the U.K.; and - the Soviet perception of President Kennedy as young and indecisive. Nikita Khrushchev provided missiles, troops and support equipment to Cuba. The shipments were concealed among shipments of food, drugs and machinery sent in defiance of the U.S. trade embargo. By October, Soviet forces in Cuba included: - 4 motorised rifle regiments with tanks, artillery and tactical missiles, some with nuclear warheads; - 2 anti-aircraft divisions with SA-2 surface to air missile batteries; - 42 Mig-21 fighter aircraft with support equipment and personnel spread over 3 airfields; - 42 Il-28 medium bomber aircraft, some of which were nuclear capable, spread over 3 airfields; - 1 missile division to operate up to 40 ballistic missiles (SS-4/SS-5); - 2 aviation engineering regiments with 16 SSC-2a cruise missile launchers; and - 12 'Komar' missile boats with 2 SS-N-2A 'Styx' anti-ship missiles each. Timeline: September 8 NATO countries stop providing financial credit to Cuba under U.S. pressure. The first consignment of R-12/SS-4 medium range missiles arrives in Cuba. With a range of over 2,000km, the missiles can reach Washington D.C., Cincinnati and West Texas. September 11 The Soviet Union warns that a U.S. attack on Cuba or on Soviet ships carrying supplies to Cuba would mean war. September 16 Second consignment of missiles arrives. September 26 Congress passes a joint resolution giving the president the right to intervene militarily in Cuba if the United States is threatened. September 27 Another group of CIA agents is captured. This is another setback for Operation Mongoose's attempts to form a rebel network in Cuba. Air Force Chief of Staff Curtis LeMay receives a proposed plan for aerial bombardment of Cuba (OPLAN 312) that would precede landing U.S. troops by air and water (OPLAN 314, 316). The proposal is approved with a plan to complete preparations for the invasion by October 20. Due to logistics problems, this deadline is not met. September 30 U.S. reconnaissance reveals Soviet Il-28 bombers in Cuba. A Navy reconnaissance aircraft photographs crates on the deck of the freighter 'Kasimov' which are the size and shape of the bomber. October 2 The U.S. embargo is tightened: U.S. ports are closed to any country that allows any of its ships to transport arms to Cuba; any ship that docks in any socialist bloc country cannot dock at any U.S. port during that voyage; U.S. aid will be unavailable to any country that allows ships or planes under its registry to transport certain materials to Cuba. In a memo to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Defence Secretary McNamara describes potential triggers for military action against Cuba: Placement of offensive weapons from the Soviet bloc in Cuba, attacks against Guantanamo Naval Base or U.S. shipping or aircraft outside Cuban territory, and assistance by Cuba in 'subversive acts' in other countries in the Western Hemisphere. October 6 Admiral Robert L. Dennison, chief of Atlantic Forces (CINCLANT), receives a memo from McNamara telling the Joint Chiefs of Staff to start putting into effect OPLAN 314 and OPLAN 316. October 8 At the U.N. General Assembly, Cuban President Dorticós denounces the October 2 decision about ships trading with Cuba as an "act of war" violating the U.N. Charter. Anti-Castro demonstrators interrupt his speech several times. Britain secretly agrees to a U.S. request to position supplies and equipment for an attack on Cuba at Mayaguana in the Bahamas. October 14 U-2 overflights reveal missile installations and transporters in Western Cuba. October 15 Analyzing U-2 photographs taken a day earlier, the CIA informs National Security Adviser McGeorge Bundy that the Soviet Union is constructing sites for intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Cuba. President Kennedy, the Executive Committee (EXCOMM) and the Joint Chiefs deliberate over possible courses of action for the next week: airstrikes against the missile bases, a naval blockade, a full invasion of Cuba, and negotiating with the Soviet Union to remove the missiles. October 22 Dependents and non-essential personnel are evacuated from Guantanamo. SAC places its first flight of ten Minuteman missiles, based at Malmstrom AFB, Montana, on operational alert. At 3p.m. President Kennedy formally establishes EXCOMM with National Security Action Memorandum (NSAM) 196. At 7p.m. Washington time, the President announces on national television that there are nuclear missile sites in Cuba and that he has ordered a naval blockade of the island. DEFCON 3 is declared during the broadcast. Polaris missile submarines are deployed to the Atlantic; Regulus cruise missile submarines to the NW Pacific. Mobilisation of Task Force Charlie - the ground forces for the Cuban invasion - begins from Fts. Hood and Benning to Ft. Stewart. October 23 Khruschev places all Soviet forces on raised alert. The Cuban missiles are able to launch within an hour of receiving a launch order. Castro orders a troop mobilization and alert. U.S. recon overflights increase in tempo. Low-altitude runs are added to the high altitude U-2 overflights. October 24 Naval blockade begins 1000h Washington time. October 25 The task force headed by the carrier Essex attempts to intercept the tanker Bucharest without success. It passes through the blockade line. A CIA sabotage team attacking the Matahambre copper mine as part of operation Mongoose is caught by Cuban authorities. In an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, U.S. Ambassador Adlai Stevenson confronts Soviet Ambassador Zorin, challenging him to admit the existence of the missiles. Zorin refuses to answer. October 26 DEFCON 2 is announced at 1000 Washington time - SAC places 1/8 of its aircraft on airborne alert, and disperses its other aircraft. The rest of the B-52 fleet is ready to take off on fifteen minute's notice. Air Defence Command disperses nuclear armed aircraft, placing a third of the fleet on 15 minute alert. Five of six IRBM sites appear operational on the basis of the latest overflight photos. The freighter Marucla is intercepted that evening. October 27 (times given are Washington/EST) 1100: A U-2 based in Alaska strays accidentally into Soviet airspace. The pilot radios for backup as he flies back to Alaska. Two nuclear-armed F-102s respond, as do several Soviet aircraft. No shots are fired. 1200: A U-2 piloted by Major Rudolf Anderson is shot down by an SA-2 missile during a reconnaissance overflight. The destroyers U.S.S. Cony, Beale, and Murray investigate possible submarine contact C-19. 1659: The Beale attempts to signal submarine contact C-19 (B-59, but with number scratched off conning tower), using practice depth charges and sonar. 1729: The Cony also challenges the submarine contact (B-59/C-19) by dropping five hand grenades. Although aware of the U.S. notification that practice-depth charges would be used, the initial impression of the Soviet submariners was that they were under attack. ** The Point of Departure ** Unable to contact Moscow to confirm that war had broken out, the B-59's captain launches a nuclear torpedo at the U.S. destroyers. 1746: The Cony and Beale are vaporised by the torpedo's 15kt warhead. The Murray is heavily damaged. The crew abandon ship. Other members of the task force based around the carrier Randolph (CTG 83-2) are lightly damaged; dozens of crewmen are blinded by the blast. The B-59 suffers a fatal hull breach due to the massive shock wave produced by the detonation and sinks with all hands. 1830: President Kennedy is informed of the explosion at 1800. Following an emergency conference with EXCOMM, Kennedy orders the navy to hunt and destroy any Soviet submarines west of 60W longitude. The Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin is notified shortly afterward. 1840: The U.S. ships forming the blockade line receive Kennedy's order. CTG 136-2 led by U.S.S. Essex, prepares to attack a Soviet sub that they had been tracking for the last hour. CINCLANT reports four positive conventionally powered long range submarines (3 Foxtrot, one Zulu class) in the west Atlantic region. 1845: Dobrynin arrives at the White House; after a brief heated exchange with the President, he rushes back to the Soviet Embassy. Khruschev receives news of the nuclear detonation in the Caribbean. He orders all forces to the highest level of readiness. At this alert level, the missiles in Cuba can be launched within 30 minutes. 1855: The submarine B-130 is forced to the surface with depth charges. The crew manages to transmit a distress signal before being sunk by U.S. destroyers. 1903: Khruschev receives news of the B-130's sinking. He gives permission for Soviet naval forces to attack American shipping. Civilian ships are to dock at the nearest friendly port. 1905: Delayed by a car accident, Dobrynin reaches the Soviet Embassy and radios Moscow. Khrushchev demands that Dobrynin ask Kennedy whether a state of war exists between the Soviet Union and the United States. 1926: Dobrynin phones Kennedy to try and arrange a conference between the leaders. A game of cat and mouse has broken out between the Soviet submarines and U.S. Navy. The Soviet subs attack U.S. merchant shipping in the Caribbean and along the Atlantic coast. Over the next hour, 7 Soviet vessels and 11 American ships are sunk. 2030: Kennedy orders that American ships attack any Soviet vessels in the Atlantic. After conferring with the Joint Chiefs and EXCOMM, OPLAN 312 is implemented. A strike against the Cuban missile sites can occur within two hours of the President's order. 2045: Kennedy issues a Civil Defense Emergency message, informing authorities across the country of the attacks against American shipping. Civil Defense measures begin to be put into place. Panic results in several cities when air raid sirens accidentally go off. 2330: A phone conference begins between Kennedy and Khrushchev. Both leaders are tired, angry, and convinced that the other attacked first. Kennedy learns that there are tactical nuclear weapons in Cuba and that the Soviet commander there has authority to use them. 2350: An American soldier in Berlin accidentally discharges his weapon while on patrol near the Berlin Wall. A brief firefight between Soviet and American forces breaks out. Both sides pull back after ten minutes, and take their wounded to nearby hospitals. October 28 0100: Both leaders are notified of the events in Berlin. 0130: The Kennedy-Khrushchev conference ends on an indecisive note. 0145: Kennedy orders an emergency meeting of EXCOMM and the Joint Chiefs. He orders the OPLAN 312 strike. The airfields containing the Soviet fighters and Il-28s will be targeted as well as the ballistic missile and SAM sites. The attack will begin at 0430 Washington time. 0230: Khrushchev has been in conference with members of the Central Committee and Politburo for most of the last hour. He is convinced that the Soviet Union will be devastated by an American attack. The disparity in strategic forces is that great (see later for a breakdown). Khrushchev plans to contact Kennedy and withdraw missiles from Cuba to try and defuse the conflict. A bloc led by First Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Shelepin, KGB Chairman Vladimir Semichastny and the Chairman of the Presidium Leonid Brezhnev are concerned by Khrushchev's apparent weakness, and begin efforts to replace him. 0430: F-100 and F-105 fighter-bomber aircraft lift off from five airfields in Florida; they are escorted by F-104s, F-106s, F-102s and Navy F-4 Phantoms. Over 200 aircraft are involved in the first strike of OPLAN 312. 0434: The first wave of American aircraft are detected by Cuban radar. The Cuban air defense network goes to full alert. The ballistic missile sites prepare for launch. 0437: The SA-2 SAM batteries closest to the ballistic missile sites open fire. 0438: MiG-21s engage the U.S. fighter screen. They are greatly outnumbered and are shot down within minutes. American fighters establish an orbit over the three defending airfields, with a reserve to engage targets of opportunity. 0439: Losses from SAM fire are relatively light - three aircraft. The bombers successfully attack the SAM sites and airfields. 0441: The first bombs land in the ballistic missile sites to devastating effect. Most of the missiles are destroyed in this first wave. 0510: Ten SS-4s of the dozen remaining are successfully launched. With an effective speed of 1.6 miles (2.6km) per second, Washington D.C. is a bit over twelve minutes away. 0515: Homestead Air Force Base south west of Miami and the Key West Naval Air Station are obliterated by megaton air bursts. 0516: The second wave of American aircraft arrives and adds to the carnage. Very few Soviet aircraft or SAM sites remain intact. The ballistic missile sites are destroyed. Port Lauderdale north of Miami is vaporised by another SS-4. The American attackers may not have airfields to return to. 0517-0530: The remaining SS-4s strike their targets: - Barksdale AFB Louisiana - a Strategic Air Command field. - New Orleans, Louisiana - a port that could be used to embark troops for the Cuban invasion. - Savannah, Georgia - a port being used to embark troops for the Cuban invasion. - Ft. Stewart, Georgia - a major army base used as staging point for the Cuban invasion. - Hampton Roads, Virginia - naval base and staging point for the Cuban invasion. - Houston, Texas - major port and oil refining complex. - Washington D.C. is hit at 0523 local time. 0520: The final actions of the President and EXCOMM are to declare war on Cuba and the Soviet Union, and transfer command authority according to the Presidential Succession Act. At Mount Weather, Speaker of the House John W. McCormack authorises a full retaliatory strike on the Communist bloc following the new Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP)-63. Castro attacks the Marine base at Guantanamo Bay with all available forces. Tactical nuclear weapons are used by both sides. SSC-2a cruise missiles with 12 kiloton warheads are fired at U.S. Navy vessels off the Cuban coast. Meanwhile in the Soviet Union, the conspirators have deposed Khrushchev and ordered a retaliatory strike against the United States and Western Europe. Warsaw Pact forces roll into West Germany under cover of tactical nuclear weapons... The first U.S. missiles will land on Soviet soil by 0539 Washington time, from the Jupiter batteries in Italy and Turkey and Mace cruise missiles in West Germany. Thor IRBMs based in the U.K. will land two minutes after that. Polaris missiles begin impacting around 0545; Atlas, Titan and Minuteman ICBMs by 0600. Soviet missiles land around the same time as the U.S. ICBMs - the first-generation Soviet ICBMs took hours to get ready for launch. * Soviet ICBM targets include: - Command Centres: Pentagon (National Military Command Center) Raven Rock/Site R (Alternate NMCC in Pennsylvania) Greenbrier (Congressional shelter in West Virginia) Mount Weather/High Point (executive branch and continuity of government shelter in Virginia) Omaha (SAC Headquarters at Offutt AFB, Nebraska) NORAD (located at Ent AFB, Colorado Springs, Colorado; Cheyenne Mountain is still being excavated in 1962). - Major Naval Bases: Norfolk, Virginia San Diego, California Alameda/Concord, California (Oakland Supply Depot and Navy Medical Centre, NAS Alameda, NAVSTA Treasure Island, Mare Island Naval Shipyard at Vallejo, NAVWEPSTA Concord) Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia Navy Yard) Groton, Connecticut (Polaris Atlantic home port) Charleston, South Carolina Bremerton, Washington (Polaris PAC support facilities and Puget Sound Naval Shipyard) - SAGE Air Defence Radar Sites (to clear the way for bombers): (Note that some of these sites are also SAC bases - noted with #). Adair AFS, Oregon (N of Corvallis, OR) Beale AFB#, CA (N of Sacramento) CFB North Bay, Ontario (also the site of the Canadian NORAD HQ, under construction in 1962) Duluth Airport, Duluth Minnesota Fort Custer, Michigan (W of Battle Creek) Fort Lee AFS, Virginia (S of Richmond) Grand Forks AFB#, North Dakota Gunter AFB, Alabama (NE of Montgomery) Hancock Field, Syracuse NY K.I. Sawyer AFB#, Michigan Larson AFB#, Washington (NE of Yakima) Luke AFB, Arizona (NW of Phoenix) Malmstrom AFB#, Montana McChord AFB#, Washington (S of Tacoma) McGuire AFB, New Jersey (near Fort Dix, Lakehurst, Trenton) Norton AFB, California (E of San Bernardino) Richards-Gebaur AFB (S of Kansas City Missouri) Sioux City AFS, Iowa (S of Sioux City) Stead AFB, Nevada (NNW of Reno) Stewart AFB, New York (near West Point) Topsham AFS, Maine (near NAS Brunswick) Truax Field, Wisconsin (near Middleton) The first strategic bombers arrive at their targets within four hours of deployment. These are RAF Vulcans, Victors and Valiants (V-bombers) from the U.K. as well as B-47 Stratojets based in the U.K., Spain and Morocco. On the Soviet side, Tu-16 Badger medium range bombers attack targets throughout Western Europe, Turkey, North Africa and the Middle East. Trans-polar bomber flights take six to twelve hours to reach their targets. Air defenses on both sides exact a heavy toll on the incoming bombers. The overwhelming numerical superiority enjoyed by SAC enables the U.S. forces to reduce the Soviet Union to 'a smoking radioactive ruin' a few hours after the bombers cross the Soviet borders. Soviet bombers that manage to get through U.S. and Canadian air defenses destroy Anchorage, Ottawa, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Denver, and some of the northern SAC bases not already hit. Soviet missile submarines, vulnerable because they must surface launch their deadly payloads, are largely destroyed by U.S. Navy and NATO assets before they can strike. The few that get through destroy Honolulu and the Pearl Harbour Naval Base; Tokyo, Seoul, Vancouver, Seattle, Boston, New York, Atlanta and Los Angeles. October 29, 1962 24 hours after the declaration of war, nuclear weapons have been detonated across the Northern Hemisphere from Japan to Hawaii. Europe is ablaze; sporadic fighting between NATO and Warsaw Pact troops continues on a front stretching from Denmark to the Dalmatian coast. Fitful naval skirmishes continue in the Atlantic, Mediterranean, North and Norwegian Seas and in the Pacific off the Chinese, Korean and Alaska coasts. As part of the SIOP-63 full strike, the United States attacked targets in China, North Korea, North Vietnam and Cuba as well as Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. The British arsenal was spent attacking Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Soviet IRBMs and bomber weapons have set the U.K. ablaze from Dover to Edinburgh. Nearly 200 million people have died in the nuclear blasts and firestorms. Over 5,000 megatons of explosive power have been released; vast amounts of smoke and soot are injected into the upper atmosphere from all the fires. Over the next six months, the soot clouds spread across the world. Temperatures plummet. Famine stalks the globe. April 1963 Global average temperature has fallen by 6 degrees C (10.8F). The last ice age was cooler by 5 degrees C (9F). Inland areas are hardest hit, with average temperatures in the Mid-West, Canadian Shield and much of Eurasia falling by 18 degrees C (32.4F); in Siberia, by 30 degrees C (54F). On the coasts, temperatures fall by 2 to 10 C (3.6 to 18F). The Southern Hemisphere is somewhat better off, with temperatures falling by half as much as the North. Rainfall patterns are disturbed; nuclear winter leads to reduced evaporation and precipitation. It is too cold (and dark, in much of the northern hemisphere) for a harvest in 1963. Billions starve. 1964-1965 World population was about three billion prior to the conflict. By the end of 1965, perhaps 100 million remain, subsisting on meager harvests from greatly reduced growing seasons. Temperatures begin to recover; pre-war conditions do not appear until 1977. ====== Soviet strategic forces, 1962 NRDC warhead numbers: ICBM 38, SLBM 72, bomber 412, non-strategic 2,800 Podvig, et al: ICBM Code:
Type Number Warheads CEP[1] R7/R-7M (SS-6) 6 3 or 5 Mt 5km R-16 (SS-7) 32 3, 5, or 6 Mt 2.7km which 50% of the missiles will fall. Compare with Maximum Error (ME), the radius in which 99% of the missiles will fall. ME ~= 2.4xCEP SLBM The submarine must be surfaced to launch these first generation missiles. Code:
Type Number Weapons
V-611/Zulu 6 2 R11FM/SS-1 missiles each - range 150km
10kt/0.5Mt warhead, CEP 1.5km
629/Golf: 22 3 missiles each.
Golf I 3 R11FM/SS-1,
Golf II 19 R-13/SS-N-4 (1 Mt, 600km range, CEP 4km)
658/Hotel 8 3 R-13/SS-N-4 missiles each.
First Soviet nuclear-powered missile submarine.
Code:
Type Number Weapons Range(km) 3M BISON 58 2 bombs each - 2-3Mt 8,100 Tu95 BEAR 45 2 bombs each (3Mt) 13,200 Tu95K 57 Kh-20/AS-3 cruise missile# 13,200 IRBMs Exact numbers are difficult to obtain. Soviet doctrine at the time regarded nuclear weapons as an integral part of offensive plans against NATO forces in Western Europe. Code:
Type Weapons Range(km) CEP R-11/SS-1b SCUD-A 5-80kt 130 4km R-5/SS-3 SHYSTER 80-300kt 1,200 2.5-5km R-12/SS-4 SANDAL 1-1.3/2-2.3 2,000 5km R-14/SS-5 SKEAN 1 or 2-2.3Mt 3,700 1.25-1.9km ~10,000 Mt in ~8,000 strategic and ~20,000 tactical weapons NRDC warhead numbers 1962: ICBM 213, SLBM 151, bombers 6,847, 20,085 tactical Schwartz et al, Atomic Audit: ICBM Atlas D - 30 soft launch facility; F.E. Warren AFB Wyoming (15), Vandenburg AFB California (6), and Offutt AFB, Nebraska (9). Atlas E - 27 coffin; 9 each at Fairchild AFB, WA; Forbes AFB, KS; F.E. Warren AFB Atlas F - 72 silo/lift; 12 missiles each near Schilling AFB, Kansas; Lincoln AFB, Nebraska; Altus AFB, Oklahoma; Dyess AFB, Texas; Walker AFB, New Mexico; and Plattsburg AFB, New York. All Atlas missiles carried W38 (4.5Mt), W49 (1.45Mt) Titan I - 54 silos W38 Lowry AFB, Colorado (18); Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota(9); Beale AFB, California (9); Larson AFB, Washington (9); Mountain Home AFB, Idaho (9). [Titan II - 54 silos under construction] Minuteman I - 10 silos W56 (1.2Mt), W59 (0.8/1.2Mt) Malmstrom AFB, Montana. [The Army Corps of Engineers Ballistic Missile Construction Office (CEBMCO) were in charge of the construction effort. By 1966 1,000 silos had been built]. SLBM 5 George Washington class and 4 Ethan Allen class submarines, each with 16 missile tubes. 7 submarines deployed at any given time. Polaris A1 - 80 missiles with single W47 warhead, yield 600kt, range 1,852km, CEP 3.7km. Polaris A2 - 64 missiles with W47 warhead, range 2,778km, CEP 3.7km The W47 was flawed, with a 50% failure rate. 5 Regulus cruise missile submarines. 4 carried 2 missiles each; USS Halibut, the first U.S. nuclear-powered missile submarine, could carry 4. 2 on patrol in north-west Pacific at any time. Based in Pearl Harbor. The Regulus cruise missile carries a 40-50kt or 1-2Mt warhead. Range 900km. It needed to be surface launched. Bomber Code:
Type Number Weapons B-52 Stratofortress 365 Hound Dog AGM (W28), B5, 15, 28, 41, 43, 53, 57. 70,000lb payload (2 B5/B53, or up to 8 other bombs); 14,170km range B-47 Stratojet 523 B5, 15, 28, 39, 41, 43 20,000lb internal payload, 2,963km range B-58 Hustler 90 B39, 43, 53 20,000lb payload (2 B53 or up to 4 other bombs), 2,593km range B-66 Destroyer 150 B5, 15, 28 12,000lb payload, 4,260km range W28 11kt - 1.1Mt W49 1.45Mt B5 11-47kt B15 1.7/3.4 Mt B28 70/350/1,100/1,450kt B39 3-4Mt B41 5Mt B43 70/500/1,000kt B53 9-10Mt B57 5-20kt The Hound Dog AGM was a cruise missile with a range of 960km. 547 were in the air force inventory in 1962. Each B-52 carried one on each wing. IRBMs All carried the W49 warhead. With a range of 2,778km, they could easily reach Moscow. 60 Thor IRBMs in UK 30 Jupiter IRBMs in Italy 15 in Turkey Mace: winged surface-surface missile with range of up to 2,593km. Armed with the W28 variable yield weapon. 38th Tactical Missile Wing Western Europe - just 192 TM-61s and TM-76s. 498th Tactical Missile Group with 60 missiles in Okinawa. 
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