Australia/New Zealand in the Twilight War

[HorseSoldier]

The Indonesian invasion of Australia trope seems to be a very salient/significant one in Australian culture -- if I'm not mistaken (and apologies to our Australian members if I am) it gets consideration not only in popular fiction but at least somewhat legitimate political debate concerning the Australian military's capabilities, etc.

Personally, though, I see the regional T2K scenario being one where Indonesia fragments/implodes under the weight of global commerce collapsing and whatever third tier nuclear strikes they caught to take useful facilities off the game board.

Australia I can see getting rocked pretty hard by Soviet megatonnage -- it's solidly enough in the western camp that I could even see the zombies in the Kremlin authorizing a nuke boat to make a run down out from under the polar ice to be able to hit Australia with ordnance if nothing else will reach (I seem to recall a thread about Australia on one board or another where someone looked at the published stats for Soviet ICBMs and wasn't quite sure how you even hit Australia from missile fields in northeastern Europe and Siberia -- not sure how accurate that assessment is). Anyway, by "rocked pretty hard" I mean a few warheads set aside for non-petroleum targets of value (probably RAN/RAAF bases).

So the overall situation I see is less one where Indonesia ends up at war with Australia, and certainly no invasion, and more one where Australia's capabilities are seriously eroded and their northwestern frontier is a maritime free fire zone of Indonesian civil war factions, warlords, pirates, and refugees (lots and lots of those). I don't see Australian troops fighting to defend Australian soil, more fighting on below-shoestring-budget conditions to secure/stabilize key terrain/facilities/points in that morass and ensure freedom of navigation for the remnants of shipping. Half cordon-sanitaire and half-hold things worth holding, with the added stressor of the maritime LOCs mission. How well all that goes? Lots of room there for debate -- also lots of room there for gaming opportunity. The ultra-economy of force mission could yield lots of calls for 2000 era equivalents of the AATTV hooking up with some statelet or faction that Australia wants to support, as well as small unit commando-ing and raiding of point targets/smaller marauder and pirate groups/etc.