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Old 03-03-2016, 12:20 PM
cosmicfish cosmicfish is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 477
Default Population of the US in TMP

I am trying to figure out the population of the US at various times in the Project's existence. I have put together an initial projection, and wanted to run it by and let people shoot holes in it:

Starting assumptions:
Initial Population: 350,000,000 day 0
Urban: 35%, with 15% survival rate day 1
Suburban: 45%, with 60% survival rate day 1
Rural: 20%, with 95% survival rate day 1

The initial population was meant to be roughly current, and the distributions and survival rates were intended to be close to reality while still producing the roughly 50% immediate survival rate I've seen predicted for full-scale nuclear war.

Population growth:
War+1 day to War+3 years: -5%/year
War+3 to War+10 years: -3%/year
War+10 to War+20 years: -2%/year
War+20 to War+30 years: -1%/year
War+30 to War+40 years: 0%/year
War+40 to War+80 years: +0.5%/year
War+80 to War+120 years: +1.0%/year
War+120 to War+150 years: +1.5%/year

This was intended to reflect (in the first 40 years) depressed birth rates and higher mortality rates from environment, lack of medical care, reduced food supplies. After 40 years, population starts to rebound, inching up towards 1-2% rate the world has seen in the last 50 years.

Population over time:
War+1 day: 179,375,000 (51.3% of Day 0)
War+3 years: 153,791,641 (43.9% of Day 0)
War+5 years: 144,702,555 (41.3% of Day 0)
War+40 years: 91,822,174 (26.2% of Day 0)
War+150 years: 260,871,276 (74.5% of Day 0)

This simply the combination of the above assumptions for a few key dates: immediately post-war, the time span for the planned activation of the Project, the population low point, and the actual awakening of the PC's.

I don't like these results. Morrow is supposed to be post-apocalyptic, but that is entirely too many people for the Project to deal with. At the +150 years point, a 50,000-man Project has more than 5,000 civilians to deal with, per team member.

So what do y'all think? Too many people? Bad assumptions? Have at it.
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