Twlight 2000 starting with a 2020 timeline?

[Raellus]

Sectarianism is probably too great a barrier to a Turko-Iranian alliance. Turkey is majority Sunni, Iran is Shia. They typically don't get along, and it's hard to what their common interests are ATM- certainly there's not enough there to prompt any sort of military alliance but who knows- stranger things have happened.

There's plenty of ingredients for a major regional war in the Middle East. You've already got the Iranians and the Saudis fighting a proxy war in Yemen. You've got ISIS getting increasingly desperate in Iraq. You've already got Russian and U.S. airpower backing rival factions in Syria, with other regional players stoking the flames. It's a powder-keg.

In Europe, you've got the continued fighting in East Ukraine. You've got Russian saber rattling towards the Baltics. You've got the U.S. and NATO flexing in response. You've got instability in several of the former Soviet republics in the Caucuses.

The EU just lost a major member with the Brexit. The refugee and economic strains on south and east European member states are giving rise to right-wing movements. I could see other members leaving or even getting the ol' heave-ho (here's looking at you, Greece).

In Asia, you've got the Chinese pushing further out into the S. China Sea, building island airfields and taking pot shots at Vietnamese fishing trawlers. The Philippines starting to lean towards Beijing was pretty unexpected. I'm going to have to ponder the possible ramifications of that curveball.

And then North Korea is the ultimate wild card. Who knows what that regime will pull, especially if it feels threatened by foreign or domestic pressures.

I doubt it'll happen, but what if a U.S. presidential hopeful actually gets elected and follows through on his thinly-veiled threats to pull funding and troops from NATO? That might be just the invitation Putin needs to make his play for the Baltics.