Population Projections

[Desert Mariner]

Dragoon500ly’s thread on population increase/decrease got me looking at my old population projection spreadsheet and I realized that it was long overdue for an update. For those interested the result is attached.

As opposed to previous versions of this tool, this one calculates the Base Population rather than just using the most recent census figures. So, if your TEOTWAWKI is in 1987, the spreadsheet takes the 1980 census figures and applies growth through 1987 to arrive at your base population.

I’ve also added the Canadian Provinces using Canadian data from 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 with US data for 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively. 2020 figures are projections from the University of Virginia for the States and 2016 census figures for the Provinces. [Note: The province of Nunavut was a part of NW Territories until 1999 so it will display a population of 0 prior to 2000]

There are three (3) worksheets in the file:
Input – Enter your parameters
• TEOWAWKI Year – Allowable entries are 1970 through 2019 inclusive.
• Growth Rate [Die-Off & 1-10] – Enter the percent change (may be negative) in population for each period. This figure is applied annually for the duration of the corresponding time period and includes births, mortality and migration.
• Time (Years) [Die-Off & 1-10] – Enter the length of time the corresponding Growth Rate should be applied. Time for Die-Off should always by 1.
If you leave the Growth Rate blank, no results are shown in the Projection tab for that and all subsequent periods (i.e. if Period 4 is blank then no results will display in Periods 4-10).
Projection – Displays your results. The calculated year is displayed at the top of each Period column.
Places – Background tables with census information for each state and province.

Projection formula: Pt = P0 * (R+1)to the power of T

Where:

P0 = Base population
Pt = Projected population
R = Growth Rate
T = Time

Any comments and/or feedback are appreciated.