Poland After OMEGA

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Based on that thread link you posted, here's another random thought -- the NCO and Officer-making process shows heavy US influence. Which in many ways does make sense to me, as a lot of US forces stayed behind in Poland after Op Omega.

Agreed.

I think it makes a huge amount of sense for XI Corps to attempt form an alliance with Polish forces in the north after Omega. if nothing else, it may be a way for them to eventually get back to North America.

[simonmark6]

Looking at the 2300AD stuff, I am going to make a few guesses about how things go in the immediate future of Southern Poland.

1) Fillipowicz loses, either from pressures within and teh Polish partisans or from Krakow conquering him. The most fun RPwise would be for PCs to make the partisans successful enough to gain backing from Krakow and at some point Filipowicz is whacked.

2) Either the Czechs get their house in order and neutralise the rouge General or he is bought off/rubbed out.

3) This leaves an interesting campaing for the forces of Krakow to take out the deserters around Stoala Wola (sp?) who aren't likely to be absorbed or go away.

4) That would leave Krakow in a solid position with a good agricultural base and a platform for industrial restoration.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I think it makes a huge amount of sense for XI Corps to attempt form an alliance with Polish forces in the north after Omega. if nothing else, it may be a way for them to eventually get back to North America.

It might make sense in today's political and social climate, but Poland is still at war with Nato in 2000...

One cannot forget that Germany, backed up by Nato was seen by many eyes as the aggressor. After 4 solid years of war and Poland reduced to nothing more than rubble (and much of the damage done by NATO in the 1997 withdrawal as they threw nukes at the Pact forces), forgiveness and brotherhood are likely to be VERY rare virtues in the Polish people.

It is highly likely Polish troops may well be even more fanatical in driving out Nato than the Soviets ever were! It's just fortunate that the Germans and Poles are, at least in the lead up to Omega, at seperate ends of the border, otherwise there might be a few more mushroom clouds (figuratively speaking).

[Raellus]

That's a good point, Legbreaker. By 2000, Poland's been fighting NATO for three years. There's likely to be a lot of bad blood.

I think the Germans are only in Poland to keep the Soviets at arms length. If the Soviet threat was lessened somehow (withdrawal, disintegration, defeat), I don't think the Germans would necessarily feel the need to stick around. There's plenty for them to do back in the Fatherland.

Who knows how the Poles would approach the situation? If they do so pragmatically, then the Germans might be allowed to go in peace or even to stay in western Poland for a period of time. If the Poles chose to act emotionally, then fighting with NATO would probably continue. I just don't see that there is that much to gain from attacking NATO when there are bigger threats on Polish soil (marauders of various nationalities, Soviet units). I seriously doubt Germany would attempt offensive ops against Poland. There seems to me that there is much more to gain by both sides agreeing to at least a cease-fire, if not some sort of active cooperation.

Canon seems to suggest that the Germans are pulling back to and consolidating on German soil while most of the Americans are pulling out of Europe entirely during OMEGA. As several posters have pointed out, France is bigger threat/preoccupation for Germany than Poland is.

Of course, this all hinges on the Soviet question. If there isn't a significant Soviet pull out and/or collapse in Poland, then the Germans aren't likely to budge from Polish soil.

Prior to WWII, there were three attitudes held by Poles. In general, those living in the western part of Poland viewed the Germans as a bigger threat and were more likely to advocate cooperation with the Soviets. In the east, the exact opposite was true. And then, many Poles suscribed to the "doctrine of two enemies", and prefered to treat both with suspicion (if not outright hostility) and to keep both at arm's length. I can see these same ideas/attitudes prevalent in the Poland of 2000.

@Rainbow Six

I also believe that the French would be trying to exert their will in Poland. In my campaign, one of the PCs is a FFL direct action team member who was sent to Poland to find and recover the Black Madonna. The idea was to acquire a powerful religious symbol linking Catholic France and Catholic Poland which would give the French some sort of leverage in the political future of the post-war Poland.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I think the Germans are only in Poland to keep the Soviets at arms length. If the Soviet threat was lessened somehow (withdrawal, disintegration, defeat), I don't think the Germans would necessarily feel the need to stick around.

Go back and examine the cause of the war in Europe. Depending on the version, 7 ethnic Germans in the Polish Army were ordered to do something they objected to - In V1 I think it was being assigned to the Soviet-Chinese front, while in 2.0 and 2.2 it involved issues a little closer to home.

The Poles didn't like these 7 men disobeying their orders, and (rightfully in my mind) punished them for it - they were after all members of the UN recognised government of the country.

What was the German response to this essentially lawful act by the Poles? Invade a sovereign nation already preoccupied with a war on the other side of the world.

This might not be the whole story, but it's enough that many Poles will see clear comparisons to 1939 and earlier. One also has to remember that Poland is a fairly new country. Until relatively recently, Poland has been split up amongst it's neighbours, fought over countless times and generally been treated with complete distain. This historical chaos and repression doesn't just fade away into distant memory, especially when it's relived time and again by it's neighbours invading it.

Poland, while an ally in WWII, was badly treated by the west after the war (even during it I beleive in some cases). Nato grew out of the western allies and so it's probable a clear connection can be seen by many older Poles. Germany, their historical enemy joining Nato as a full member could well have been seen as a further slap in the face to those who'd suffered under the Nazi regime. The Soviets might not have been saints, but they were the ones in comtrol of the media since 1945. Propaganda against the west would only increase distrust and general loathing...

So why would the Germans remain in Poland? That's a question I can't answer without spending a lot more time on research. The fact that they are there would probably continue to drive Polish efforts to expel them while inflicting as much damage as they possibly could (not much really since the Poles have limited military resources left in comparison).

The US withdrawal and handover of heavy equipment to the Germans might well taint the US in the eyes of the Poles also. Their may well be less of them about, but handing over tanks, etc to their historical enemies isn't going to sit very well with them...

[Abbott Shaull]

Well there are couple things. The western one third of today Poland was once part of Germany before WWII. Also well as part of East Prussia that the Soviet claim as part of their prize after WWII.

Then you add into account that Poland for centuries was an occupied nations that have surrounded her for centuries. Before the Soviets it was the Prussians, Russians, and Austrians who had carved up Poland before WWI over the years. At time when Sweden was what we would call a super power by today standards, they to were an occupying nation of present day Poland.

After the war many of the of the Eastern European countries like Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Bulgaria, portions of Yugoslavia, and portions of Romania wouldn't be in to much of hurry to accept help from any of the former allies and enemies since they had been subject to occupation. Places like Hungary and Austria wouldn't be much better off since they were both at one time the power behind many of the occupations over the years.

No I see Poland going through a period where who ever finally comes to control over most of what is/was Poland would be very interested in keeping Germany, Austria, Hungary, and the Soviet Union off balance for some time to come. More so than the Soviet Union and Germany would want each other.

What the Polish have going for them is the only country who left standing who may want to help them is the French. Again how much would they trust the French if at all. The Poles in general would accept what limited foreign troops, especially if they aren't in control of the militia they are part of.

[Legbreaker]

That's a good point about the Poles possibly accepting French aid - it's been a while since French soldiers tromped over Poland (back in Napoleons day I think).
However, would France be even remotely intested in helping Poland? What's in it for them...?

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

That's a good point about the Poles possibly accepting French aid - it's been a while since French soldiers tromped over Poland (back in Napoleons day I think).
However, would France be even remotely intested in helping Poland? What's in it for them...?

Two things...
1. Any country that stands in between them and Soviet that able to cause them a headache if they should ever get ready to drive west again would be a good thing for them. Even if the Soviets could bypass them they would like an ally to help or in most cases to go down with them.

2. With Poland gaining strength, both France and Poland could keep a eye on Germany and the like to make sure they don't get strong enough to attack either of them.

France is in a very unique position where it can help other nations who could be in position to keep others at disadvantage for some time to come. It not in great shape, but it still for lack of better term it is now the super power in the t2k timeline.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

It might make sense in today's political and social climate, but Poland is still at war with Nato in 2000...

Is Poland still at war with anyone by 2000? Politically, officially maybe yes, but militarily? I think not.

[Legbreaker]

I don't think it's written anywhere in canon that the war officially ends on any front. Even over in China, which was nuked back to the stone age quite early on, the war still "officially" rages.

While the ability of the various participants to continue is questionable, historical influences can't be ignored. The past 4 years of warfare in Europe will have created and increased a lot of bad blood - I can see a large number of war crimes and atrocities being committed by all sides (torture, prisoner executions, etc) as "payback" for issues both real and imagined.

The situation in Yugoslavia in the early to mid 90's is similar to the way I see much of Europe in T2K. Everyone with a grudge, no matter how minor, is probably going to pick up the nearest weapon and do something about it. With the lack of effective government and political systems (a mixed blessing IMO), it's not like laws will be enforced and "legal" punishments on perpetrators carried out.