German III Corps?

[Adm.Lee]

Ooo, I hadn't thought about bridges being dropped! I think cavalry action or that last airstrike might be great for this. Or worse, when the cavalry drove off III German Corps, the Germans blew bridges over the Oder behind them, which pissed off CG XI Corps. (I have some random name generator tables around here, I'm going to assign something to these generals.)

As for shipping, IIRC the Polish Baltic coast is mostly terrible for heavy-draft ships. I'm just wondering what happened to the amphibious shipping that brought the Marines in? If it still exists, couldn't it get at least some out? My guess is it got sucked into the OMEGA evacuation fleet.

[Legbreaker]

It is likely that almost every bridge across the Oder has been dropped at some point during the war. Any existing bridges are likely to be relatively low capacity structures thrown up by engineers and destroyed half a dozen more times by enemy action. It wouldn't take much for the XI Corps to be cut off in this manner.

As far as we know from canon sources, only the John Hancock and Tarawa are in the area. Both have drafts of over 8 metres making them totally unable to enter the port, or even get close in all probability. Naturally there are numerous civilian vessels that make up TF 34 which may have been available, but again, the port of Kołobrzeg restricts vessels to only the smallest.

It is possible the Tarawa was the ship sunk in my assessement of the offensive, taking the bulk of the marines fuel reserves with it. This particular ship in my mind at least would make for a more suitable flagship than the John Hancock and as it's not mentioned as part of TF 34....

Regardless, any vessels which could be used to evacuate the XI Corps are either too small to be all that useful (restricted to maybe carrying 1 heavy vehicle and/or perhaps 50 men), or would require small craft to ferry men, equipment, stores, etc out to them. All this requires fuel which may not be available if there's to be enough left for the evacuation to continental US.

It would also require the XI to be withdrawn peicemeal, seriously degrading their ability to fend off the Poles. I certainly wouldn't want to be in the rearguard and amongst the last few hundred pulled out!

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

(I have some random name generator tables around here, I'm going to assign something to these generals.)

Here is a US name generator based on US census data.

http://games.juhlin.com/tools/names.html

Still very much a work in progress. Just reload to get new names.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by kato13

Here is a US name generator based on US census data.

http://games.juhlin.com/tools/names.html

Still very much a work in progress. Just reload to get new names.

Now really impress us and come up with a Yanamomo matrix...

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by kato13

Here is a US name generator based on US census data.

http://games.juhlin.com/tools/names.html

Still very much a work in progress. Just reload to get new names.

Well, the 2nd name there is Kevin Wojcik, so there's our Polish-ancestry name. Since it was the 2nd one up, I guess that he's the Corps HQ's chief of staff. First name was James Sweitzer as the CG, they are probably both Major Generals.

For the heck of it, Ronald Ortega commands the 50th Armored Division, Mark Trowbridge the 2nd Marine Division, and Sarah Wilson the ACR.
Jean-Marc Mondenard is the name my (paper) French name-generator came up with, so he's the brigadier of the 4th Canadian brigade. (I assume someone from the 22e Regiment is most likely to succeed to command there.)

Markus Kienholtz commanded Third German Army, and Ludiwg Kalb the III German Corps.

There, now we could use names, rather than typing titles over and over again.

[Raellus]

I posted this in the Poland After Omega thread but I thought I'd mention it here as well since it seems germaine.

Regarding U.S. XI Corps: why do you think SACEUR gave up hope of recovering them during OMEGA? I understand that they may have had good reasons to stay put but those divisions represent significant combat power. Blown bridges are obstacles, but not insurmountable ones, especially if one is willing to abandon heavy equipment.

Could the XI Corps have expressed CivGov sympathies? Could the "abandonment" of XI Corps have been a political move?

The presence of the Polish Free Congress in nearby Pila could be a clue. MilGov was essentially abandoning the PFC to its own devices. What if CivGov made them an offer of assistance? Perhaps CivGov had plans to keep a military presence in Europe. XI Corps plus the Polish forces loyal to the PFC could create a relatively powerful enclave in NW Poland- a bridgehead in Europe, of sorts.

[Adm.Lee]

That seems a stretch, as I can't recall any indicators of CivGov trying to do much of anything outside its enclaves Stateside. Still, it's a possibility.
IMO, those "not-insurmountable" difficulties might have seemed insurmountable to those in command.

I think a combination of CIA/CivGov promises to both XI Corps' leaders and the Polish Free Congress together might have swung things their way. If, as I have said, Generals Sweitzer and Wojcik felt that they (and their new PFC allies) were being abandoned, then a CivGov appeal (from a CIA person with the PFC?) could work.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

That seems a stretch, as I can't recall any indicators of CivGov trying to do much of anything outside its enclaves Stateside.

Not at all, what about Yugoslavia? That is pretty much CivGov's show as far as NATO is concerned.

I always assumed that CivGov were actively involved in intelligence gathering in Poland. In my campaign at least one of the pro-NATO Polish forces had CivGov sympathies.

[Legbreaker]

The US forces located in the Balkans are all there due to Civgov's meddling in military matters. There's also a CIA operative attached to the Soviet 10th TD outside Warsaw (he meets with a violent fate sometime in winter 00-01).

The Oder River isn't a minor obstacle. Deep enough to accomodate battleships in WWII (one was grounded and used as a battery against the Soviets in the last days of the war), and wider than most easily portable bridging equipment can cope with, it would take a major operation to cross.

We can assume all prewar bridges and ferries have been destroyed in the preceeding 4 years of warfare and pontoon bridges, etc sabotaged and so on many times since. Anything capable of carrying more than a dozen people at a time is likely to be destroyed or otherwise unavailable (hidden away, sailed off to Norway, etc).

The Polish coastline from the mouth of the Oder all the way around to Gdynia is unsuitable for major amphibious operations with shallow treacherous waters. All the minor habours along this stretch allow vessels of no more than 4.7 metres draft (most modern warships, including those intended for amphibious ops require more than this).

Landing craft after 4 years of war are likely to be very rare and hard to come by. Fuel to power the few that are available is likely to have been expended landing the 2nd Marines east of Gdansk (and probably suffered losses from enemy resistance there).

Essentially all that's left able to access the XI Corps area are a few fishing boats and yachts, none able to carry more than a few tonnes at a time, IF fuel could be found. It's also probable the only port the XI has access to has been damaged by either or both sides previously and the approaches mined to prevent it's use by coastal patrol boats, torpedo boats, etc.

I've also previously mentioned somewhere than a withdrawal by the available transportation resources would require a long, gradual depletion of combat strength. Eventually the nearby enemy units would pick up on the withdrawal and also be strong enough to destroy the remaining elements of XI Corp. Chances are they'd also capture a fairlly large supply of equipment and stores in the process.

Basically the XI Corp has little hope of withdrawing without inviting a catastrophy. The best they can expect is for limited resupply by sea to the order of a few tonnes per day (at best). The good news is they should be able to evacuate badly wounded and excess specialist personnel while possibly receiving some reinforcements.

The PFC to me is almost an irrelevance. Lacking in effective combat power, chances are they'll be wiped out by marauders in the near future (if the Soviets don't do it first). At best they're a puppet government or ineffective propaganda tool of the west.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

The Oder River isn't a minor obstacle. Deep enough to accomodate battleships in WWII (one was grounded and used as a battery against the Soviets in the last days of the war), and wider than most easily portable bridging equipment can cope with, it would take a major operation to cross.

I agree. I can see the loss of the Oder river bridges as a legitimate reason to stay put. On the other hand, I do think that a determined and resourceful commander could figure out a way to get most (if not all) of his men across. An entire Corps would likely have enough engineering units (and probably river crossing equipment) to be able to repair or rig up some kind of light bridge or ferry system. A good commander knows how to withdraw under pressure. Destroying heavy equipment in place is SOP when it must be abandoned and since OMEGA pretty much counts on leaving heavy equipment behind anyways.... The stakes are high. If they don't get out of Europe via OMEGA, they're likely going to be stuck there for at least a year or two, likely longer.

I think that there's got to be something more holding them back than the Oder.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

The PFC to me is almost an irrelevance. Lacking in effective combat power, chances are they'll be wiped out by marauders in the near future (if the Soviets don't do it first). At best they're a puppet government or ineffective propaganda tool of the west.

I'll be able to show you on my map, when it's finished, but the PFC has several Polish army units under its control, including a fairly powerful (for the year 2000) MRD or TD, plus a few hundred others. 4000 armed men a few AFVs would be able to handle most marauder groups. The PFC is presumably pro-western and would therefore be well disposed to cooperating with the 6000 NATO troops of nearby XI Corps. It seems that both entities would stand to gain much more by working together than by not.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

That seems a stretch, as I can't recall any indicators of CivGov trying to do much of anything outside its enclaves Stateside. Still, it's a possibility.
IMO, those "not-insurmountable" difficulties might have seemed insurmountable to those in command.

I think a combination of CIA/CivGov promises to both XI Corps' leaders and the Polish Free Congress together might have swung things their way. If, as I have said, Generals Sweitzer and Wojcik felt that they (and their new PFC allies) were being abandoned, then a CivGov appeal (from a CIA person with the PFC?) could work.

The CIA still had large presence in Poland. Well large for the it being Twilight 2000. They had operative who had Commander of the Soviet 10th Guards Tank Division to decide to head to the former Yugoslavia.

I don't see Operation Omega as the DIA/MilGov abandonment of the Polish Free Congress. I am sure NATO is still committed to the PFC as whole, okay maybe not all agree, Germans may want to reclaim territory, but in basis of Polish Government on NATO side they agree. For the PFC it will be just another set back in a long series of setbacks that date to 1939. I assumed that after the US troops out of NATO, they assumed the UK would continue to work with the PFC.

Also it could be also that the Command Staff of the US XI HQ aren't ignorant of Operation Omega. Maybe they had made choice to stay to help the PFC, but didn't want let other outside of HQ to know about their decision, due to losing troops who may want to go home.

Yes, I know how the canon is written, but people do adjust stuff they don't agree with. Or maybe you can write that XI Corps does what most troops in Central Command and the US Fourth Army. They simply decide to stay put. Just maybe one of the many reason they haven't moved is due to the fact they are there for the express reason to help the PFC get a larger foothold and to expand control of other parts of Poland.

Just some thoughts.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Ooo, I hadn't thought about bridges being dropped! I think cavalry action or that last airstrike might be great for this. Or worse, when the cavalry drove off III German Corps, the Germans blew bridges over the Oder behind them, which pissed off CG XI Corps. (I have some random name generator tables around here, I'm going to assign something to these generals.)

This is starting to make a lot of sense.

I like the idea of the 2nd MarDiv's fuel going up in flames at sea and the rest of XI Corps (sans the 5th and 8th IDs) being forced to give up most of its fuel to get the Marines back to NW Poland.

I also like the idea of a row between the German 3rd Army commander/staff and the U.S. XI Corps commander/staff. It could help explain (in part) why XI Corps decided to stay put in Poland.

I'm still not convinced that Polish and Soviet cavalry could have chased off a couple of German Panzergrenadier divisions (IIRC, one Panzer and two PZGR division, plus the Danish Jutland division). I'm not even convinced that most of the Soviet and Polish units designated as cavalry formations even had horses. Going Home actually clearly identifies the number of cavalry in a given unit and most "Cavalry" divisions listed therein have no cavalry strengths listed. (i.e. it differentiates between infantry and cavalry within a given unit). This seems to make sense. There seems to have been consensus on the old forum that the Europe of '96-2000 didn't have an adequate horse population to properly mount all of those cavalry units.

[Legbreaker]

I agree that cavalry alone is very unlikely to have a great effect on mechanised formations while they're mobile (or even dug in for that matter). However, examining unit movements from 01JUL00 to OCT/NOV00 shows us that Soviet units on the north end of the line have moved south and east further than any other Pact unit anywhere in Poland.

It is my assertion that this is the aftereffects of a very hard and violent push downstream along the Oder, cutting the III German Army into two sections (the Germans to the west and US to the east). Worn out from the fighting, the commander of that Pact army (can't recall what the units are at the moment) withdrew his forces to rebuild their strength although strong patrols have been maintained to prevent the bridges being rebuilt.

How sucessful the Pact recovery is remains to be seen, although there are sure to be losses from desertion over winter.

I do not believe a simple disagreement between XI Corp HQ and III German Army HQ would be anywhere near sufficent to have the US units remain in Poland. I know people can be stubborn sometimes, but to risk thousands of soldiers lives just on principle?

What is believable if you want to include a rift between the commands, is that the Germans simply didn't back up the US units as much as they could have. Once pressure was applied by the Pact in another area of the front (say southern Germany), the danger to their homeland became more important than pushing on into Poland, at least in the minds of a handful of officers in vital positions.

It may also have been expected that the ports at either Gdynia or Gdansk would have been captured as part of the offensive and their larger vessel capabilities put to use. There are no ports between Gdynia and the German border capable of much more than good sized fishing boats. Without dedicated landing craft, many of which are likely to have been previously destroyed or lost as late as the 2nd MarDiv's landing to the east, only a handful of amphibious vehicles such as AAVP-7A1's could have been taken - the M1's of 50th AD, Leopards of the Canadians, M8's of the 116th ACR, etc would all be lost, or worse, fall into enemy hands.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

I agree that cavalry alone is very unlikely to have a great effect on mechanised formations while they're mobile (or even dug in for that matter). However, examining unit movements from 01JUL00 to OCT/NOV00 shows us that Soviet units on the north end of the line have moved south and east further than any other Pact unit anywhere in Poland.

It is my assertion that this is the aftereffects of a very hard and violent push downstream along the Oder, cutting the III German Army into two sections (the Germans to the west and US to the east). Worn out from the fighting, the commander of that Pact army (can't recall what the units are at the moment) withdrew his forces to rebuild their strength although strong patrols have been maintained to prevent the bridges being rebuilt.

How sucessful the Pact recovery is remains to be seen, although there are sure to be losses from desertion over winter.

I do not believe a simple disagreement between XI Corp HQ and III German Army HQ would be anywhere near sufficent to have the US units remain in Poland. I know people can be stubborn sometimes, but to risk thousands of soldiers lives just on principle?

What is believable if you want to include a rift between the commands, is that the Germans simply didn't back up the US units as much as they could have. Once pressure was applied by the Pact in another area of the front (say southern Germany), the danger to their homeland became more important than pushing on into Poland, at least in the minds of a handful of officers in vital positions.

It may also have been expected that the ports at either Gdynia or Gdansk would have been captured as part of the offensive and their larger vessel capabilities put to use. There are no ports between Gdynia and the German border capable of much more than good sized fishing boats. Without dedicated landing craft, many of which are likely to have been previously destroyed or lost as late as the 2nd MarDiv's landing to the east, only a handful of amphibious vehicles such as AAVP-7A1's could have been taken - the M1's of 50th AD, Leopards of the Canadians, M8's of the 116th ACR, etc would all be lost, or worse, fall into enemy hands.

No I don't think there is rift between the various Corps commands and the Third German Army. I can see the German blowing up the bridges on their way back across the river, especially if the XI Corps is no where in sight in getting ready to secure the crossing for their returns back into Germany. With everything going on to the south, it could be there isn't/wasn't the resource to replace the vital links in late summer to allow the XI Corps move back across into Germany.

Also for the part after their initial break out, they are in contact with very week Polish units and Soviet Cavalry that are exhausted by the time they get to the battle field. We don't know if Germans had spent long enough in Poland where they had to stop to brew some fuel at which point they were immobilized and then sudden realizing the cavalry units still operating in their area were still mobile. Remember this is first operation in a couple years of this size and there was a steep learning curve to pass.

Now granted if US military had wanted too, they could of pulled the XI Corps including the 4th Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group back, but it would mean leaving large amount of equipment and stock for someone to come along and pick up. The people who came along to pick up the equipment and stock would more than likely turn the equipment against NATO and NATO friendly Polish units. I think the XI Corps Command staff agreed it was more important for them to stay in place than allowing people to return home.

Next thing is the XI Corps is the only units in the near future that is able to present a real threat to several Pact force with very little effort of the Corps in the future. It set up to launch raids along the Soviet lines of communications that are in Germany. Especially when you consider some Soviet and Polish units are fighting over control of territory in the aftermath of destroying the 5th Mechanized Division. While other Polish units are unhappy that they have new neighbors that are taxing the local resource that barely supported the local populace and them. The 10th Polish Tank Division and the 21st Soviet Motorized Rifle Division are units in particular that are openly fighting over control of cantonments areas, even though they are both under the same command.

Another thing with Going Home many of the Front and Army HQs on both sides had cease to exist due to a variety of reasons. NATO the Fourth US Army and First German Army are now merged resources. With the Armies of Germany and Czech more or less taking over local government functions as well. There are several US, Czech, Polish, German, and Soviet unit operating independently of higher HQs by this time too.

The Various Fronts

1st Southwest Front no longer functioning as a Command HQ, and was absorbed by the 1st Czech Tank Army which itself was operating more of government administration unit than a military unit willing to go on the offensive.
1st Czech Tank and 4th Czech Army were both operating as government functions.
21st Soviet Army was still functioning, with units remaining loyal in Austria.

2nd Southwest Front no longer functioning.
8th Soviet Guard Tank Army, functioning but unwilling to take offensive actions.
16th Soviet Army, in communication with only the 106th Soviet MRD and unwilling to take offensive action.
V Italian Corps, pulling back into Italy and not willing to take offensive action.
41st Soviet Army, functioning, but unwilling to take offensive action.

Baltic Front
1st Polish Army, No longer accepting orders and many of it units have merge with local militias.
2nd Polish Army, Ceased to exist as a coherent unit. Some units are still loyal, but not willing to take offensive action.
1st Polish Tank Army, Cease to exist and merged with 5th Polish Tank Division and they have declared for the Polish Congress.
22nd Cavalry Army still operating and only in contact with the 96th Cavalry Division, but unable of offensive action after action in Germany

Reserve Front. Still in Lublin and occasional communication with component units. Effectively only in control of Lublin. Seat of Soviet Military government of Poland.
4th Guard Tank Army, ceased to exist as a unit and merged with the 20th Tank Division in Lodz.
3rd Shock Army, Ceased to exist as a coherent unit, remaining units intend to return to various parts of the Soviet Union come spring.

1st Western Front: Only in contact with the 9th Soviet Guard Tank Division which is loyal but unable to take offensive action due to lack of fuel and spare parts.
1st Soviet Guards Tank Army, Cease to exist as a unit. None of it units are accepting orders.
8th Soviet Guard Tank Army, Ceased to exist as a coherent unit. One Division intends to return to the Soviet Union, another has become part of local Militia and another is still loyal but like the 9th Soviet Guard Tank Division it unable to do much due to lack of fuel and spare parts.

2nd Western Front: No longer a exist as a coherent unit.
2nd Soviet Guard Army: Still operating but in contact with two of their division, the other divisions of the Army no longer accepting orders.
20th Soviet Guard Army: No longer a coherent unit. One division has defected to NATO, another no longer accepting orders, and the last has a small amount of gasoline for vehicle but running on alcohol to preserve it, still loyal but reluctant to take offensive action (just not hiding behind the lack of spare parts and fuel 'card' that other units have been)/

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

It is my assertion that this is the aftereffects of a very hard and violent push downstream along the Oder, cutting the Third German Army into two sections (the Germans to the west and US to the east). Worn out from the fighting, the commander of that Pact army (can't recall what the units are at the moment) withdrew his forces to rebuild their strength although strong patrols have been maintained to prevent the bridges being rebuilt.
...
I do not believe a simple disagreement between XI Corp HQ and Third German Army HQ would be anywhere near sufficient to have the US units remain in Poland. I know people can be stubborn sometimes, but to risk thousands of soldiers lives just on principle?

I agree with your first paragraph. The second: The CG of XI Corps is looking at an unknown number of Pact horsemen raiding his line of communications, the German III Corps breaking contact with him, blowing the bridges and pulling way back, two of his divisions have been sent far away and out of contact, and his support from the sea has apparently evaporated. Which is more risky: sitting down here while he still has some ammo and AFVs, or trying to march out of this trap?

Re: USS Tarawa-- As far as I'm concerned, she could still take part in OMEGA, but perhaps without any landing craft. As has been said, there aren't ports to receive large ships in the XI Corps zone, so any reinforcement, resupply or evacuation would require landing craft. Which could have been the real casualty of the summer storm that has been touched on here before.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I'm still not convinced that Polish and Soviet cavalry could have chased off a couple of German Panzergrenadier divisions (IIRC, one Panzer and two PZGR division, plus the Danish Jutland division). I'm not even convinced that most of the Soviet and Polish units designated as cavalry formations even had horses. Going Home actually clearly identifies the number of cavalry in a given unit and most "Cavalry" divisions listed therein have no cavalry strengths listed. (i.e. it differentiates between infantry and cavalry within a given unit). This seems to make sense. There seems to have been consensus on the old forum that the Europe of '96-2000 didn't have an adequate horse population to properly mount all of those cavalry units.

Yes I remember this debate quite well, and I would tend to agree that with everything considered there wouldn't be enough horses to go around properly mount all of the troops.

As for the Cavalry Division that they list, remember these units had been previously MRDs and TDs that had been transformed over to Cavalry as their heavy equipment was stripped to re-equipped other units. At the same time there were personnel that they lost. So the Cavalry Divisions are basic new fresh units with few veterans. Remember the 10th Soviet Guard Tank Division received 3000 new troop during the spring of 2000 from Central Asia.

Then try to figure out when these the Soviet Union had transformed the Divisions of the 22nd Cavalry Army to Cavalry and were there areas of Russia where large horse population exist. Then could they move them to the staging areas of the 22nd Cavalry Army. This seems to be the largest formation to converted to Cavalry.

Some of the Soviet Division that were Austria, Germany, and Poland have been partial converted to Cavalry. Ironic the 96th Cavalry Division which was part of the 22nd Cavalry Army still has Infantry listed, leading me to believe that there was still a limited amount motor transportation by some means to help move the Infantry as needed. Then again the 22nd Cavalry Army HQ and 96th Cavalry Division were quartered together so maybe the infantry come Army level units that was absorbed into the Division after things had settle down.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Abbott Shaull

Ironic the 96th Cavalry Division which was part of the 22nd Cavalry Army still has Infantry listed, leading me to believe that there was still a limited amount motor transportation by some means to help move the Infantry as needed.

It could be that the infantry component was foot mobile, or carried in wagons. Heavy equipment such as artillery, and stores could be transported by ox carts - slow, but as they're not expected to scoot quickly around a battlefield, probably sufficient.

It's possible that the Germans also had to give up a large amount of the fuel reserve to the Marines to get them out of the delta. This too may have contributed to the abbrievated offensive - no fuel means no point (or ability) to continue forward. I lean towards this scenario as it explains why a German Leopard III is part of the US 2nd MARDIV in October 2000 (it was security for one of the fuel resupply collumns).

Even with the resupply, I see XI Corps as being extremely short on fuel. This lack of fuel results in them being forced into generally static positions and allows the Polish Cavalry to run rings around them. The Ples might not be strong enough to inflict a decisive defeat over the XI Corps, but they're certainly able to contain them.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

It could be that the infantry component was foot mobile, or carried in wagons. Heavy equipment such as artillery, and stores could be transported by ox carts - slow, but as they're not expected to scoot quickly around a battlefield, probably sufficient.

True they could transported by wagon or even foot mobile if they were ox to move equipment and supplies could keep up for protection of the Divisional Trains.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

It's possible that the Germans also had to give up a large amount of the fuel reserve to the Marines to get them out of the delta. This too may have contributed to the abbrievated offensive - no fuel means no point (or ability) to continue forward. I lean towards this scenario as it explains why a German Leopard III is part of the US 2nd MARDIV in October 2000 (it was security for one of the fuel resupply collumns).

Yes if it would explain it somewhat. Also couple other twist is the German Leopard III represents an advance guard moving forward, in order to scout ahead so the III German Corps could leap frog the XI US Corps and/or the fuel assets that were brought forward were underestimated and at this point the 8th Mechanized and 2nd Marine divided up with the 8th taking what it needed for it next couple leg of their journey and the 2nd Marine was bringing back what was needed to keep the XI US Corps mobile.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Even with the resupply, I see XI Corps as being extremely short on fuel. This lack of fuel results in them being forced into generally static positions and allows the Polish Cavalry to run rings around them. The Ples might not be strong enough to inflict a decisive defeat over the XI Corps, but they're certainly able to contain them.

I think you hit the nail directly on the head the first time here. Both sides had seen that their limitation on fuel allowed the Cavalry to keep them pin. The Soviets/NATO Divisional Commanders on up, all along the line in Germany after hearing how effective the that Cavalry units had been during the operation and realizing the 5th Mechanized was only destroyed where it was due lack of fuel during the summer. Then if you accept that the NATO had shipped supplies via sea including fuel intended to keep the Third German Army components moving, and when it was destroyed things feel apart. I would believe that many of the loyal Soviet units unwilling to take on action would be due to believing they had fuel to do what higher HQ wanted them to do and still be mobile once they got there.

Like stated there was extreme learning curve during this operation. Probably the first NATO Army/Pact Front size operation in Europe since 1998, more than likely since then end of 1997. I see most operation in 1998 after the last of the major fuel stockpile for NATO being conducted at Corps and Divisional level to get their units in better defended positions but nothing larger since it is realize they don't have resources to do so. On the Soviet side their lack of an effective supply chain is showing. Spare parts don't exist and fuel comes in trickle if at all, while they are able to get new conscripts they then need to take time to train them, and then secure food to feed these new troops too. Desertion would raise sharply in the Soviet units due to lack of supplies, so they units start to revert back to what they had done before the war to survive. Raise crops in their area where they at.