Operation Proud Lion: T2K in Kenya

[HorseSoldier]

I always figured Egypt was generally pro-US in the TW and the Soviets took out the Aswan Dam, wiping most of the country that matters off the map.

That and maybe a strike to close the Suez Canal is about all the megatonnage you'd need to spend on Egypt to remove their piece from the board entirely.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

The Egyptians might be allied with the West during the conflict but their access to the Nile waters pretty much overrides any and all considerations.
While the destruction of the two Aswan Dams would devastate the country, a number of the military bases are not near the river itself and by the time the flood reached the lower parts of the Nile, it probably wouldn't be so damaging (Cairo might survive and Alexandria would probably be relatively unscathed)
That plus the mining centres in the Sinai and the towns on the Suez may provide enough resources to allow the Egyptians onto a war footing.

[Raellus]

There's still the Blue Nile too. And the distances involved would be epic in a world without gasoline. Yeah, it's kind of looking like the water thing isn't going to work. It was an interesting idea, though.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I don't think the notion should be completely dismissed.
Looking at a map of Egypt, considering the distance from Aswan to Cairo I'm revising my earlier thoughts. It's about 1000km from Aswan to Cairo for example and I cannot imagine the flood having enough strength to travel that far with enough force to render the centre of Egyptian government incapable of some action
Cairo probably wouldn't even be damaged by a flood from the Aswan Dam destruction. The biggest problem the lower half of Egypt would face would be the lack of electrical power from the Aswan Dam hydro-electric generators.
I think there would be enough of an Egyptian government left to at least make threats about attacking anyone "stealing their water". Ethiopia would disregard the Egyptians and use whatever water from the Nile they needed. Sudan would probably start doing the same and sooner or later all the nations that border the Nile would do so.

The surviving Egyptian government might use this as a means to unite the people into rebuilding the country. What better motivation could they have "Our water is being stolen by the savages to the south, the lifeblood of Egypt is being sucked away by these leeches"
An attack on Kenya, as mentioned earlier, is highly unlikely to succeed but the Egyptians might be content with giving guns and food to Sudanese rebels to harass the Kenyan border thus placing greater strain on the Kenyan government, causing pressure to give into the Egyptians demands.

Protecting the border would be siphoning Kenyan troops away from other areas where they are needed because there's also the consideration that every nation around there is going to look at Kenya with envious eyes because it's still stable and has some ability to produce food and fuel whereas they have likely fallen into disarray and resorted to banditry and piracy to make a living.
Hence the need of an allied force to bolster the Kenyans.

P.S. and the Egyptians have some oil of their own (995,000 barrels/day in 1995 with reserves estimated at nearly 4 billion barrels) along with mining coal and gas from the Sinai, enough for them to be exporting it to nearby countries
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17771283/E...ectricity-Coal

[Raellus]

I'm looking at several maps of the Nile and it doesn't appear to have any significant headwaters or tributaries in Kenya. If this is the case, spending treasure on taking the Kenyans to task over water rights violations would be a major investment without any significant payoff.

Still, fighting among Kenya's northern neighbors over access to water seems likely in a T2K scenario and would lead to considerabe destablilization of the region. Some of that could spill over the Sudan-Kenya border.

[HorseSoldier]

For a single brigade, especially without the full-up suite RSTA assets available these days and limited airlift, just securing the Kenyan border against random marauders spilling over from the Sudan (and Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda) would be a serious trick. Don't really need major invasions to have the 173rd and the Kenyan military stretched to the limit with the whole continent sliding into chaos.

If Kenya is *the* show in Africa, I'd expect that a good sized chunk of 3rd SFG(A) would be in country as well, probably a mix of guys embedded with Kenyan military units and manning old school SF camps on the frontiers with militia and Kenyan military units to serve as trip wires for big incursions and help dissuade smaller raiding parties.

(GDW has 5th Group active in Kenya in the RDF Sourcebook, but it predates 3rd Group being reraised. At least a portion of 3rd Group would probably still be active in the Caribbean running missions against Cuba and its interests, but that's another topic.)

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by HorseSoldier

For a single brigade, especially without the full-up suite RSTA assets available these days and limited airlift, just securing the Kenyan border against random marauders spilling over from the Sudan (and Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda) would be a serious trick. Don't really need major invasions to have the 173rd and the Kenyan military stretched to the limit with the whole continent sliding into chaos.

OK. But in mid-'97, when the 173rd deployed (according to Frey), adequate airlift and fuel for the brigade's aircraft was available and the Kenyan military is no slouch. If it's simply a matter of assisting the Kenyans in counter-insurgency operations, elements of the 5th SFG would probably be adequate. A reinforced BCT is overkill, especially considering the need for such a unit elsewhere. With the U.S. engaged in full-scale conventional warfare in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, an entire Airborne BCT could be put to use almost anywhere else BUT Kenya. IMO, a conventional Tanzanian invasion makes the commitment of the 173rd in Kenya a much more justifiable investment. Once they're there, the breakdown of the world's transportation networks following the TDM and the continued presence of large numbers of marauders on Kenya's frontiers explains the BCT's continued presence there.

Thanks, though, for the lead on the 5th SFG. I'll have to take a look at my RDF sourcebook. I could definitely use them in my scenario.

[HorseSoldier]

It's a brief reference in the text of RDF about 5th SFG having teams working with Masai tribesmen, if I remember right. As noted, it would be 3rd Group if they still got reactivated in 1990, which would possibly have happened in the Twilight timeline as well. I'm pretty sure the reactivation was planned as part of the Reagan-era plus up of the US military before the walls came down, even if it post-dated that by a year or so.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Okay so the water angle isn't as workable but how about the reason the 173rd is there is because the Kenyans are refining oil that is actually supplied from Egypt?
The 173rd is deployed there to collect some fuel being refined by the Kenyans in exchange for whatever. They find they don't have the capacity to transport the fuel so end up having to wait around and by that time, it's the end of the war in Europe and they are left to their own devices.

[waiting4something]

Originally Posted by HorseSoldier

For a single brigade, especially without the full-up suite RSTA assets available these days and limited airlift, just securing the Kenyan border against random marauders spilling over from the Sudan (and Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda) would be a serious trick. Don't really need major invasions to have the 173rd and the Kenyan military stretched to the limit with the whole continent sliding into chaos.

If Kenya is *the* show in Africa, I'd expect that a good sized chunk of 3rd SFG(A) would be in country as well, probably a mix of guys embedded with Kenyan military units and manning old school SF camps on the frontiers with militia and Kenyan military units to serve as trip wires for big incursions and help dissuade smaller raiding parties.

(GDW has 5th Group active in Kenya in the RDF Sourcebook, but it predates 3rd Group being reraised. At least a portion of 3rd Group would probably still be active in the Caribbean running missions against Cuba and its interests, but that's another topic.)

Wouldn't it be the job of the 20th SFG to be taking care of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico? I thought the 3rd SFG was strictly Africa, with the 5th SFG helping them out Eastern Horn of Africa. This way the 3rd may be a bigger force and more effectively spread out.

[HorseSoldier]

Early 90s, when they first stood up, 3rd had the Caribbean + Africa, with a portion of 20th tasked to support them (I think -- I spent a while in 20th, but early 90s were way before my time). Caribbean tasking kind of got punted around a good deal along the way, I think, with 7th and 20th both getting a piece of that AOR at different points.

Hard to say how tasking would have been divided up circa Twilight 1996, without a Gulf War, Somalia, etc. in the mix.

[unkated]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

Cairo probably wouldn't even be damaged by a flood from the Aswan Dam destruction. The biggest problem the lower half of Egypt would face would be the lack of electrical power from the Aswan Dam hydro-electric generators.

Almost as important, agriculture falls back on the annual flood, rather than being regulated to a conisistent level year round.

The surviving Egyptian government might use this as a means to unite the people into rebuilding the country. What better motivation could they have "Our water is being stolen by the savages to the south, the lifeblood of Egypt is being sucked away by these leeches"

An attack on Kenya, as mentioned earlier, is highly unlikely to succeed but the Egyptians might be content with giving guns and food to Sudanese rebels to harass the Kenyan border thus placing greater strain on the Kenyan government, causing pressure to give into the Egyptians demands.

My problem with this is that The Egyptians would havd to get aid through a few layers of bandits in northern Sudan before reaching southern Sudanese who might raid into Kenya. I have my doubts they could reach.

Also, I question any government giving away much in the way of arms and ammunition. No one has the existing industrial AND supply base to afford to give away to anyone. They don't know where the replacements would come from.

P.S. and the Egyptians have some oil of their own (995,000 barrels/day in 1995 with reserves estimated at nearly 4 billion barrels) along with mining coal and gas from the Sinai, enough for them to be exporting it to nearby countries

Wouldn't THAT make a more likely target in T2K for a nuke than Aswan? The concern was more to hit targets that would give Western militaries a source of oil.

And to that end, please explain why the BCT's mission would be to prop up all of Kenya, when they could do a better jobnof ensuring an oil supply by concentrating around the location of the refinery and the nearest port?

Uncle Ted

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by unkated

And to that end, please explain why the BCT's mission would be to prop up all of Kenya, when they could do a better jobnof ensuring an oil supply by concentrating around the location of the refinery and the nearest port?

That's a fair question. The rationale has more to do with gameplay than with the backstory. I wanted to open up all of Kenya, with its various diverse geographical and cultural regions, to gameplay. This, I thought, would be easier if components of the 173rd were spread out a little. The fait accompli I used is the food situation- the fertile agricultural regions in the west eventually became more important to the BCT than the tottering refinery. Without regular resupply from the sea, the BCT would have to feed itself.

I suppose if you needed more reasons, another could be dispersal of the 173rd when it was believed that the refinery site would be nuked. Dispersal also creates defense in depth. Also, one could argue that abandoning the rest of the country to the deprivations of various enemies, foreign and domestic, would be a surefire way to lose the support of the Kenyan people and military.

Here are the pertinent sections of my piece:

The Aftermath

With the onset of limited nuclear warfare in November of 1997, the situation in Africa became even more dire. Humiliated by the failure of their offensive and feeling betrayed by their Soviet allies, the Tanzanian government and military turned on itself and the country collapsed into a brutal civil war. Scattered Tanzanian army units continued to raid across the Kenyan border. The Ugandan government also collapsed. Former Ugandan army troops joined the Lord's Army in pushing deeper into Kenyan territory. Incursions by Somali bandits increased. Citing the correlation of increased Western presence in Kenyan and East Africa's mounting problems, the Junudullah grew and became bolder in their attacks.

By mid-2000, the 173rd has been operating in Kenya for three years. They have not received replacement personnel since early 1998. Shipments of ammunition and spare parts have also all but ceased. Only a handful of the BCT's fixed wing and rotary aircraft are operational at any given time. Very little fuel is being produced at the refinery. Most of the brigade's ground vehicles have been converted to run on alcohol, saving what little gasoline is available for its aircraft. Elements of the 173rd BCT are scattered around the country, with Brigade HQ relocated to Nairobi. The BCT is combating a host of enemies, most of which can be broadly categorized as marauders. Fighting alongside the Americans are the remains of the once formidable Kenyan army, the British Army's Africa training cadre (including an SAS mobility group in the north), a few French military "advisors", and multi-national PMC personnel (mostly Israeli) formerly employed guarding the refineries (this duty has been taken over by the USN and USCG).

Operations 1997-2000

Throughout the remainder of 1997, the Herd's infantry battalions remained concentrated around the strategically important cities of Mombasa and Nairobi. Although the Tanzanian offensive had been blunted and thrown back, the remnants of the Tanzanian military (including rogue forces of Tanzanian origin) still retained the capacity to threaten southern Kenya. Operations focused on destroying the remnants of the invasion force remaining in the frontier region. An operational shift occurred after the escalation of the nuclear phase of the war in the autumn of 1997. Shipments of replacement personnel and equipment, ammunition, supplies, and spare parts from CENTCOM and CONUS slowed to a trickle. The forces in and around the strategically important refinery and port facilities in Mombasa braced for a nuclear attack which fortunately never came.

With the continuation of drought conditions throughout East Africa, the food situation for the Herd, as well as Kenya's urban population, soon became critical. Kenya's western highlands, one of the Africa's most productive agricultural regions, became a area of strategic importance. At the same time, incursions by LRA and renegade Ugandan military units in the region increased as the situation in Uganda spiraled out of control. Farms and farming villages were overrun, crops plundered or ruined, and atrocities against civilians committed on an alarming scale. The Kenyan infantry brigades assigned to the region were hard pressed to stem the flow of Ugandan marauders. Scattered reports of disgruntled Kenyan troops deserting from their units and joining the Ugandan marauders began to reach Nairobi. The 1/503 and 2/503 parachute infantry battalions were sent to western Kenya to stabilize the situation and secure the valuable food producing regions.

As of July 2000, the 1/503 remained in western Kenya, along with elements of the 2/503. Other elements of the 2/503 formed ad-hoc task forces that were deployed to trouble spots in the north of the country, as circumstances dictated. Along with most of the Brigade Combat Team's remaining operational aircraft, the 4/503 (airmobile) were based around Nairobi and operated mostly in the central highlands. A Troop, 1/91st Cavalry and the 3/503 (light motorized), using French-made AFVs, operated out of Mombasa and were tasked with keeping the Mombasa to Nairobi highway open. Throughout Kenya, the 173rd BCT operated alongside loyal Kenyan military forces which, for the most part, displayed professionalism and fighting spirit.

[Olefin]

P.S. and the Egyptians have some oil of their own (995,000 barrels/day in 1995 with reserves estimated at nearly 4 billion barrels) along with mining coal and gas from the Sinai, enough for them to be exporting it to nearby countries

Wouldn't THAT make a more likely target in T2K for a nuke than Aswan? The concern was more to hit targets that would give Western militaries a source of oil.

And to that end, please explain why the BCT's mission would be to prop up all of Kenya, when they could do a better jobnof ensuring an oil supply by concentrating around the location of the refinery and the nearest port?

Uncle Ted

Ted - thats one reason why I had the Egyptians getting nuked and nuked pretty heavily to deny that oil to the US (since the Egyptians were US allies in the 90's) with nukes hitting in Cairo and Alexandria and other refineries - with only the small one in the Sinai not getting hit (its old and pretty small)

And one reason for propping up most of Kenya, as Raellus pointed out, was the need to protect the agricultural area - the area you really need to protect isnt the entire country if you want to get the most bang for your buck, its the heart of the country that runs from Nairobi to Mombasa, add in the agricultural areas, and run patrols in the rest

[rcaf_777]

Enjoy

Sergeant Stuart Selkirk

Sergeant Stuart Selkirk, was born in Big Piney, Wyoming , his primary military specialty is infantry, and his secondary military specialty is SERE instructor. Outback was an instructor at both the USAF SERE School and the USMC Jungle Warfare Training Center at Camp Gonsalves in Japan. He has had extensive experience in Central America and Africa primary with the CIA and DIA. Stuart is not intimidated by wilderness, and believes in being part of his environment rather than its adversary.

His reputation in extreme climates and environments earned him a spot with the 1/503 his and Corporal Daniel LeClaire were actually part of joint CIA/DIA mission to train and advise Tanzania rebels. When the 173rd BCT established its Recondo school, Stuart and Daniel where immediately assigned as instructors.

Stuart prefers to prove his ability to do without any tech. He views the gadgets and gizmos of today's modern world as distractions, which come at the expense of essential skills like finding food, crafting shelter, and navigating the world without the use of GPS. Stuart’s ability to improvise solutions with the bare minimum of resources has saved his life and the lives of his teammates time and again.

Corporal Daniel LeClaire

Corporal Daniel LeClaire, was born in Wheaton, Wisconsin, his primary military specialty is infantry and his secondary military specialty is intelligence. He was a Cadre member USMC Jungle Warfare Training Center at Camp Gonsalves in Japan.

LeClaire is also graduate from 9th Infantry Division Recondo School in 1979. He left the army in 1986 and worked as bush guide in Africa where he was bought into contact with Sergeant Selkirk during a 1988 mission in South-West Africa (Namibia).

After this his help on this mission he remained as paid CIA informant in the region till he returned to the states in 1992. In 1995 both him and Selkirk were hired as contract officers for the CIA and were sent to Kenya.

Daniel hates the cold, and loves being in the jungle, hauling a rucksack through the bush, and sweating through his cammies. He is a qualified expert with the M-14, Swedish K, grease gun, M-1911A1 Auto Pistol and M-79 grenade launcher.