africa

[StainlessSteelCynic]

The other thing with Africa, well at least middle and southern Africa, is that the Chinese seem to have had an interest in the place for decades, they just couldn't get a foot in the door with Western and Soviet organizations doing everything they could to control the resources in the place.
With the fall of the Soviet empire, the Chinese have more chance now to get in and stake their claim but in terms of the game history, there's little chance China could do anything in Africa but it would add some interesting elements to a game if the PCs found some "abandoned" Chinese technical & military advisers who just want to get home.

[Ivan]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

but it would add some interesting elements to a game if the PCs found some "abandoned" Chinese technical & military advisers who just want to get home.

Yes it would be.

[Snake Eyes]

Africa is a long-neglected trove of adventure. For reference material, a while back LAW0369 had the makings of an African campaign set in Zambia at the outbreak of the Twilight War:

* http://www.topbb.com/twilight2000/viewforum.php?f=31

... and cataraft_2000 had a long-running multi-year Yahoo! Group PBeM that also involved overland evacuation of an African embassy:

* http://groups.yahoo.com/group/T2K_Burundi

[helbent4]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

The other thing with Africa, well at least middle and southern Africa, is that the Chinese seem to have had an interest in the place for decades, they just couldn't get a foot in the door with Western and Soviet organizations doing everything they could to control the resources in the place.

Cynic,

The Chinese have had a long presence in Africa, stretching back to the 70's, something I guess isn't well-known, but indeed they were not a major military player compared to the USA, USSR, UK and France.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Involve...hina_in_Africa

China has maintained relations with regimes and revolutionary movements in Angola, Zimbabwe, Sudan (in the north), Chad (via Sudan) and Mozambique with Nigeria and even Egypt involved in military and trade relations. While many countries were firm Cold War clients of the USA or USSR or related via colonialism to the UK or France, others were part of the "non-aligned" movement that China was the de facto leader; in return they supported many of the continent's revolutionary movements with expertise, advisors, weapons and economic aid.

I imagine during the Twilight War the Chinese presence in Africa would be ramped up. Both to take advantage of those nations that don't want to be involved with either the USA or USSR and to get materials badly needed for their own war efforts, particularly Sudanese oil and other raw minerals.

Hands down, the major player (military and economic) in Africa during the Twilight War would be France.

Tony

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by helbent4

Hands down, the major player (military and economic) in Africa during the Twilight War would be France.

Tony

Totally agree.

V2 NATO Vehicle Guide places French troops in Djibouti (various FAR units), Libreville in the Gabon (6th Marine Infantry Battalion), Dakar in Senegal (23rd Marine Infantry Battalion), and Port Bouet in Ivory Coast (43rd Marine Infantry Battalion). There are also references to both West and East African Regional Commands. And of course the Senegalese unit mentioned in Going Home.

That gives the French a presence in several oil producing areas (according to wiki, Gabonese oil production peaked at 370,000 barrels per day in 1997).

[HorseSoldier]

I imagine during the Twilight War the Chinese presence in Africa would be ramped up. Both to take advantage of those nations that don't want to be involved with either the USA or USSR and to get materials badly needed for their own war efforts, particularly Sudanese oil and other raw minerals.

With Soviet armored columns knifing towards Peking, I'm pretty sure the Chinese would cut ties with everyone in Africa. First, they're on the verge of collapse anyway, and secondly their support in Africa was anti-Western during the Cold War and I can't imagine they'd be able to keep supporting those clients while relying on NATO for shipments of arms and munitions to help turn back the .sovs.

[helbent4]

Originally Posted by HorseSoldier

With Soviet armored columns knifing towards Peking, I'm pretty sure the Chinese would cut ties with everyone in Africa. First, they're on the verge of collapse anyway, and secondly their support in Africa was anti-Western during the Cold War and I can't imagine they'd be able to keep supporting those clients while relying on NATO for shipments of arms and munitions to help turn back the .sovs.

HS,

I would tend to disagree for two reasons:

With the Soviets invading their home territories, I imagine the Chinese would need resources from places like Africa more than ever to fight them. Especially Sudanese oil as the Gulf is an active war zone. Even as international commerce collapses I think you'd see a trickle of vital trade being maintained with the African clients they cultivated as long as possible.

I don't quite follow your second point completely, so please bear with me if I'm missing something. Chinese support in Africa in the Cold War wasn't particularly anti-western in nature (other than anti-Taiwanese independence). In fact, their military aid in Africa was either anti-Soviet or in support of neutral nations to burnish its leadership of the "Non-Aligned Movement" (NAM). Obviously, while allies with nothing to offer would be cut off, others would find the bill for past support coming due. We tend to think of aid as being gifts to win friends and influence, but Chinese aid in Africa was always been very pragmatic and of a quid pro quo nature. In other words, they make sure they get direct value for their aid (both military and economic) and would therefore be motivated to keep it up as long as possible, which I think could exist in the form of trade throughout the Twilight War.

How China could pay for needed African resources would change over the course of the Twilight War. For example, before there was direct western involvement the USA and western European nations could guarantee loans to China to pay for resources, or even funnel aid (economic or military) directly to Chinese Clients to bolster them against Soviet influence or against Soviet clients. In the later stages of the war, pure military and economic aid would dry up as industrial infrastructure comes under nuclear attack. The HW Handbook mentions that Chinese warlords are able to independently produce weapons and ammunition and where possible these could be traded.

Of course, as mentioned the main player in Africa will once again be France. If anyone could facilitate African trade with China it would be them, mainly by guaranteeing Chinese purchases of African resources and funneling aid to China through their own clients and former colonies. One good reason for France to gain influence in postwar Asia and in doing so better position itself as the next postwar superpower.

Tony

[Raellus]

Tony,

I agree with a lot of what you have to say but I question T2K China's ability to maintain trade links with Africa. The Cold War Soviet navy was a lot stronger than the CW PRC navy and I see the Soviets as being able to shut down most of China's maritime trade. Soviet commerce raiders (mostly subs) wouldn't have much trouble sinking unescorted Chinese merchant vessels. I say unescorted because CW China's navy didn't really have much of a blue water capability. NATO navies would be too busy to escort Chinese merchant ships on their way to and from Africa.

I see China's main maritime priority during the war as maintaining the flow of military and humanitarian aid coming in from the States. Africa would quickly become a sideshow and, once the Soviets start launching large-scale nuclear strikes against the PRC, I just don't see China as being able to maintain significant trade with Africa.

In my Operation Proud Lion scenario I allude to the fact that China, once very active in the region (Tanzania in particular), had to pretty much cut ties after the Soviet invasion. The Soviets used this to leverage support in the region, leading to the Tanzanian invasion of Kenya.

[helbent4]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Tony,

I agree with a lot of what you have to say but I question T2K China's ability to maintain trade links with Africa.

Rae,

Let's just say I think it's plausible but I wouldn't go to the wall to defend my opinions in this case.

Regarding your specific points, China was a major industrial power before and during the Twilight War (while the industrial infrastructure lasted). Aid from the west would be important, but the Chinese would want to make use of their own extensive manufacturing infrastructure so as to not become too dependent on western aid. Much like how Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union was secondary to Russia's own industry. The west in turn would have every reason to assist in shipping raw materials from Africa and protecting Chinese shipping because an independently-supplied Chinese industry complements their own aid efforts (and it's cheaper for them). In other words, it's not a case of competing priorities when it comes to either Chinese trade with Africa and/or direct western aid: both could complement each other.

After the nuclear strikes, France (as the surviving European industrial power) would see it in their interests to continue to assist China, because they have no real motive to see China collapse completely. After all, if they are the sole superpower in the postwar world they're just going to have to pick up the pieces! For their faults, China is not an aggressor in the Twilight War (unlike NATO and the PacWar) and so are relatively blameless. Some kind of Chinese entity would still be a valuable postwar counter-weight to the Soviet Union or whatever political entity governs Russia or parts thereof. Even covertly, assisting China (whichever faction) in maintaining trade ties to Africa could be in France's best interests, and is certainly very cost-efficient for them.

So, I could still see some kind of Chinese presence in Africa during the early Twilight War with western (US/UK) support (including naval protection or re-flagging vessels) and then in the late war period with French assistance. Not strictly canon but fits in with the complicated international relations, even in the late war period.

Really, I'm just playing devil's advocate. I don't feel strongly either way; I could see China having some kind of presence in Africa or not.

Tony

[Legbreaker]

I agree that China will be virtually in active in Africa after 1995. Once hostilities kick off involving Nato, I suspect that the South American countries in addition to Australia and New Zealand will become more active, at least from a trade standpoint than the northern hemisphere.
I do not see France as particularly active as they have several wars being fought on, or close to their borders at home. The majority of troops will be stationed there pre nuke just in case there's an incursion. Post nuke and the troops will be needed for civil defence duties which includes maintaining the rule of law and disaster relief.
This is not to say they won't have troops in Africa, just that they'll be limited to the bare minimum required to get specific jobs done.

Trade routes are likely to change dramatically since virtually every country in the northern hemisphere is a war zone. The southern hemisphere by comparison is almost conflict free so I can see food, raw materials and other shipments which would have gone across the equator staying south.

Many of the less stable and resource poor regions are likely to be completely abandonned by outside influences. Civil war would probably erupt on a wide scale as tribal differences, quelled for the most part by external influence, bubble to the surface. National borders would mean nothing (having for the most part been artificially applied by colonising powers in the previous century or three).

South Africa as a country would be in a bad way in my opinion. Apartheid was still in effect until the mid ninties (the elections in 1994 brought in the ANC and pushed out the white National Party that had been running the show for living memory). Although this was the end of white domination, there are still many, many cases today where whites effectively control the wealth and power. With the hostilities elsewhere in the world diverting the attention of those who might otherwise give a damn, the region is likely to have exploded into violence.

Zimbabwe is probably a good example of what Africa as a whole might look like. Ruled by a strongman, it's essentially ignoring all outside influence. Living conditions for the majority of it's people are poor with medical care minimal at best. Food should be plentiful, but as the ruling "class" are more interested in forcing people from their property to "redistribute" the land to their supporters (who do little more than squat on the land without working it) most end up starving. Nearly no gods enter to country so replacement parts for machinery is difficult to come by. There's more, but a few minutes on google should give all anyone really needs.