OT: China's new carrier

[ShadoWarrior]

Originally Posted by RN7

How I see this is that China at the moment doesn't have the logistical capability to pull of a sucessful invasion of Taiwan.

I believe that's wishful thinking.

Originally Posted by RN7

It also doesn't have the air or naval power to dominate the airspace or seaways around Taiwan once America commits itself to the defence of Taiwan.

The real issue is whether the Chinese can present a fait accompli before the US can do anything about it. Taiwan lacks the firepower to repel an invasion, and the US lacks sufficient force on station to do so either. Only the deterrent of China starting a war with the US keeps Taiwan free. Taiwan falls no matter what. The only question is if the US is willing to go to war with China (just as the UK and France went to war with Nazi Germany knowing they couldn't stop the Germans from taking Poland).

[RN7]

Originally Posted by ShadoWarrior

I believe that's wishful thinking.

The real issue is whether the Chinese can present a fait accompli before the US can do anything about it. Taiwan lacks the firepower to repel an invasion, and the US lacks sufficient force on station to do so either. Only the deterrent of China starting a war with the US keeps Taiwan free. Taiwan falls no matter what. The only question is if the US is willing to go to war with China (just as the UK and France went to war with Nazi Germany knowing they couldn't stop the Germans from taking Poland).

Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion from mainland China since 1949. China's amphibous assault fleet is limited to smaller vessels with limited sea lift capacity, and they currently have only LPD with a capacity of 800 troops, a few helicopters and 20 vehicles. They do have a large number of large and small landing ships, but they would be extremely vulnerable to air and naval attack from both Taiwanese and American forces. American could stop China from invading Taiwan without even bothering to attack the Chinese mainland outside of a few strikes on targets that might be considered dangerous to American forces operating in and around Taiwan, and would seriously maul Chinese naval and air forces in the process of doing so.

[ShadoWarrior]

Originally Posted by RN7

American could stop China from invading Taiwan without even bothering to attack the Chinese mainland outside of a few strikes on targets that might be considered dangerous to American forces operating in and around Taiwan, and would seriously maul Chinese naval and air forces in the process of doing so.

That's predicated on the assumption that American sea and air power was already on station. Last I checked we don't have a CBG on permanent station at Taiwan. So any theater AD would have to rely solely on Taiwanese assets until US assets got to the AO.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by ShadoWarrior

That's predicated on the assumption that American sea and air power was already on station. Last I checked we don't have a CBG on permanent station at Taiwan. So any theater AD would have to rely solely on Taiwanese assets until US assets got to the AO.

But there are six navy carrier strike groups assigned to the US Pacific Fleet, including one based in Japan. There are also two USAF fighter wings based in Japan, two more based in South Korea and another based in Hawaii, and a Marine Air Wing based in Okinawa.

[ShadoWarrior]

I do believe I mentioned something regarding the Chicoms needing to achieve air supremacy before the US got assets into the AO. The invaders do have a window in which to do what they need to do. It's not a big window, either. They have however long it takes for F/A-18s to get to Taiwan from Japan at cruise speed.

Can the Chinese do it? Depends on how quickly they can suppress Taiwan's AD. Which in turn depends on a lot of technology, on both sides, that has not (yet) been tested in combat.

Automatically assuming that the Chicoms will fail any such attempt is just the sort of arrogance that has caused the US much grief many times in the past.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by ShadoWarrior

Automatically assuming that the Chicoms will fail any such attempt is just the sort of arrogance that has caused the US much grief many times in the past.

Ain’t that the truth—and not just for the US, either. Battle plans are highly perishable.

I wonder, though, whether economics haven’t trumped the military options for the time being. China holds massive amounts of US debt. The temptation for Washington to renege on debt to the PRC as an opening salvo in Sino-American conflict would be enormous. The bean counters in Beijing probably regularly update their calculations of just how much this would cost China. Then, too, there is the issue of sanctions, cancelation of debt held in euro and other currencies. China’s ability to invade and capture Taiwan may be less relevant than China’s perception of the total cost.


Webstral

[ShadoWarrior]

Taiwan is worth trillions of dollars. Add up the liquidation values (not the much higher market values) of all the industrial and commercial companies on the island, plus the value of the land itself, plus the value of the (destined to be slave) labor force. It's a lot. Compared to that the US debt that China holds is essentially trivial.

But, if the ChiComs can get it without having to fire a shot, so much the better. Democracies are short-sighted and corporations (which manipulate politics in those democracies) are highly self-serving. Neither governments nor businesses, nor the masses of sheep, think in terms of decades. The ChiComs do.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Webstral

Ain’t that the truth—and not just for the US, either. Battle plans are highly perishable.

I wonder, though, whether economics haven’t trumped the military options for the time being. China holds massive amounts of US debt. The temptation for Washington to renege on debt to the PRC as an opening salvo in Sino-American conflict would be enormous. The bean counters in Beijing probably regularly update their calculations of just how much this would cost China. Then, too, there is the issue of sanctions, cancelation of debt held in euro and other currencies. China’s ability to invade and capture Taiwan may be less relevant than China’s perception of the total cost.


Webstral

Also China is an export dependent economy, nearly 40% of its economy is fueled by exports, much of it by US, European and Japanese investment in China to manufacture products for export to developed markets. Wal-Mart is China's 7th largest export partner, just ahead of Britain.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by ShadoWarrior

I do believe I mentioned something regarding the Chicoms needing to achieve air supremacy before the US got assets into the AO. The invaders do have a window in which to do what they need to do. It's not a big window, either. They have however long it takes for F/A-18s to get to Taiwan from Japan at cruise speed.

Can the Chinese do it? Depends on how quickly they can suppress Taiwan's AD. Which in turn depends on a lot of technology, on both sides, that has not (yet) been tested in combat.

Automatically assuming that the Chicoms will fail any such attempt is just the sort of arrogance that has caused the US much grief many times in the past.

Well I would assume the Chinese would fail in any attempt to take Taiwan because they don't have the logistical capability to succesfully invade Taiwan, and their airforce and navy is not up to taking on the Americans.