T2K Today

[headquarters]

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

To bounce of what Grae just said, China is looking really, really dodgy and it doesn't seem to be getting much attention.

China has fuelled its ridiculous growth by its totalitarian economy restricting aspects of free markets, but in a bad way. I'm all for regulation, but the Chinese really, really got it arse-about.

In essence, foreign currency is contraband in China. It has to be turned into a central bureau and exchanged for vouchers, which massively constricts the system but does make some of the elites very, very wealthy. Because such huge amounts of cash clog one area, the Chinese simply invest these funds in other economies that they want access to at very poor returns. It's been estimated that the one way flow of money from China has been as if everyone in the west got a $4000US gift from the Chinese government in living standards for the last ten years.

Now, this isn't how even rabid democratic socialists such as myself see investment being used. Because the money comes in normally and then shoots out in one direction it means that someone has to lose out. In this case it has been the Chinese lower class and thier social environment. The Chinese live in filthy, smoggy cities with deteriorating infrastructure and a huge gulf between the classes. A new generation of Chinese are growing up who look at what they make for export and then compare it with what they have domestically. And they don't like what they see.

It should be noted; you don't get revolutions when you hit rock bottom, everyone is too flat out simply surviving. You get revolutions after a period of prosperity followed by a downturn so the people can make comparisons. Someone has to suffer from the recent slowing of the Chinese economy, and it won't be the people who are benefiting from the massive recent growth who get shafted first, it will be those lower down in the food chain.

What isn't widely known about China is that there's a lot of tension between the seaboard areas that are wealthy and the rural interior which is not. There's been a drift of people from the interior into the the seaboard areas for work, and they're going to be sent home as they get laid off and returned to even worse poverty.

This is rife T2K country. China has a huge military and the commands could easily splinter apart, as they did in the 1920s during The Warlord Era. The rural areas against the coastal industrial make for a good mix, but it's a feature of the warfare that divisional commanders 'on the same side' don't really cooperate. They manoeuvre against the enemy, but also politically against their own side to see if the can climb command ladders.

Players not wishing to play Chinese PCs would be either military or civilians in the border areas. Wild card Chinese divisions could tip North Korea over the edge while other Chinese divisions try and stop it happening and cooperate with international forces.

I like the analyzis. It sounds credible-maybe too credible for comfort -but you gotta admit -it would be a hell of a campaign to play ? I would love a T2K /Merc or mix set in those parameters.

I guess a lot of guys in here could make enough for their bread and butter by going on the networks and make statements just as good or probably a lot better than most of them .Lots of security politics and international relations insights here -various perspectives.Kato -are you relaying this to any of the agencies ? It could make cash.
hehe

[jester]

Hey, lets not forget the current Russian situation. They're again manipulating the gas and oil flow into Western Europe.

Now, how is this for a scenario:

This Winter becomes one of the coldest in memory. Peoples gas are being rationed, hundreds die from cold, or cold related illness. Mostly the very young, the old and the infirm. But it catches up to the younger people too.

The cost of natural gas goes high and sparks inflation, making people desperate.

And then investigations find that the Russians have been manipulating the gas market in Europe, not just by cutting off the supply, but through manipulation on the futures market and insider trading.

And then "terrorists" start to hit the shipments of fuel from abroad. One terrorist cell is engaged and its survivors are found to be working for the Russian government or they are outright Spietnaz personel, or GRU.

And then diplomacy falls and the tanks begin to roll. Who rolls them, Western Europe for the direct attacks on its assets and the overall attack on every many woman or child? Or Russia to save face, or to just taker over a now weakened Europe and gain a position of control for the entire continent.

[Mohoender]

Nice scenario Jest.

I'll change just one thing. I would imagine the terrorists to be, for exemple Pro-Russian Ukrainian (why not Crimean independentists) with strong but no direct ties with Moscow (There are several other possible choices).

Then, with the already numerous dead in the former Pact countries of the EU, the situation might quickly become tense. European countries might roll the tank first in support of Ukraine (trying to crush these terrorists) and it might extend its support to Georgia again. It would also offer membership to these countries in the EU. As a result, Russia would have to respond.

Then, the Russian can roll the tanks in response to Ukrainian military operation in Crimea. In the meantime, they would establish a free Crimea, reinforce their position in the Caucasus (why not even moving against Azerbaijan). At last they might also attempt to establish a puppet government in Ukraine. As a result, EU, fearing for its energy supply will take that opportunity to declare war.

[Targan]

Wow. Looks like the natural gas situation in Europe will be benefitting my local economy. The state where I live exports enormous volumes of natural gas. I would expect the international LNG price to soar.

[ChalkLine]

Originally Posted by Targan

Wow. Looks like the natural gas situation in Europe will be benefitting my local economy. The state where I live exports enormous volumes of natural gas. I would expect the international LNG price to soar.

I worked on LNG pipelines for a while, and I know the following;

- The Moombah gas fields are officially tapped out.
- The North West Shelf gas fields are past peak.

The only LNG fields available to us now are half owned by Timor Leste.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

I worked on LNG pipelines for a while, and I know the following;

- The Moombah gas fields are officially tapped out.
- The North West Shelf gas fields are past peak.

The only LNG fields available to us now are half owned by Timor Leste.

I've heard in many places that oil has reached the "tipping point" -- over half of the oil originally in the world has already been pumped out of the ground (61% is the figure I hear most often for oil). Natural gas has also reached the tipping point -- a bit less than 51% has already been tapped.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

I worked on LNG pipelines for a while, and I know the following;

- The Moombah gas fields are officially tapped out.
- The North West Shelf gas fields are past peak.

The only LNG fields available to us now are half owned by Timor Leste.

Do you mean the only entirely untapped gas fields available to us are half-owned by Timor Leste? Even if that were the case (and from the reports I monitor at work on a weekly basis I don't think it is) its not a 50-50 split with Timor Leste anyway. IIRC its more like 80-20 in our favour. In any case the Greater Sunrise and Browse Basin gas fields have amazingly large reserves of gas in them. Australia will be exporting huge amounts of gas for decades yet to come.