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#1
02-24-2009, 07:45 PM
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__________________
 "It is better to be feared than loved" - Nicolo Machiavelli
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#3
02-25-2009, 03:12 AM
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As far as Northern Ireland goes, I never agreed with the canon view. According to the UK Survivors guide another civil war broke out in Ireland with the south invading the north. I don't find this in any way likely as the South have jealously guarded their neutrality in previous wars and are unlikely to violate this by invading British territory. Also it states in the canon that the IRA was active during the war - this goes against their activities in WW2, when they declared a ceasefire. I believe that in the event of the Twilight war occuring they would have done the same as they realise that the British govt would be more likely to act with greater force against them to eliminate a potential threat. Intel here on leading members of the paramilitaries on both sides was, in more recent years ('80's onwards), pretty thorough and I believe that both sides would call a truce. There is always the risk of splinter elements causing trouble, but I think the government would have brought internment back in very quickly, which would minimise this.
As far as the general population goes, I think they would have realised that they've more in common than they have differences. Possibly this is wishful thinking on my part as I am not in any way sectarian myself - I'm in a mixed prot/cath marriage, but for many years the vast majority of the population here have just wanted to live in peace. This belief is also based on the historical precedent of WW2 when the population as a whole pulled together, notable examples including during the blitz on Belfast when fire brigades from the south came north to help fight the fires in Belfast. It should also be noted that NI is the only part of the UK that there was a draft enacted in either the first or second world war as there was a sufficient level of voluntary enlistment. Overall, beyond some isolated incidents I think that people will attempt to get on with their lives as best they can and that, on local levels particularly in the border areas, there will be a degree of cooperation. I don't mean to make Ireland sound like a post war utopia, but I don't think it will be as bad as GDW may have made it look. Life will still be a lot tougher than it was pre war, but I don't envision a full on civil war. All IMHO of course!
__________________
Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one bird.
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#4
02-25-2009, 08:18 AM
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Jester -
I see your point on CA highways (I used to drive them a fair bit), but I think a lot of them would be nearly unusabel in a T2K world. The 15 to Las Vegas is 250 miles across the Mojave and mountains. There is nearly no water out there and daytime temperatures in the valleys can get to 110F in the summer. Some hardy souls might get through, but regular contact or the idea that a political organization would exist across that border is unlikely. The routes between northern and southern CA are a bit better, but still problematic. The 5 runs through the central valley desert and would have many of the issues that the 15 would. You could take 101 along the coast and have a somewhat better time of it, but that's a long and winding road. Much of it is built on the cliffs over the Pacific and would have been washed out. That would be my route as I could expect some water and possibly some supplies at places like San Luis Obispo and Big Sur, but it would be a hell of a trip for regular convoy traffic.
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#5
02-25-2009, 09:24 AM
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Regular daily traffic, no of course not. But it is still a line of communication. And lets not forget that the 15 is a route that many early settlers took on foot and in wagons, so I can see caravans making the route.
As for the I-5, easily done, that is a desert? Dang never even thought of it as such. Again it could be done easier than the 15. They simply put up watering stations. At wells, as well as water tanks and have a team of mules like the old Borax mule teams, but instead of hauling ore, they haul water tanks to refile the watering stations. Then the state/gov or whatever entity charges a toll for using that section of the 15 to include the use of water, which is the main reason for the toll, they pay by the head. And the local government entity bars anyone from traveling who does not have a good working vehicle with the fuel and water to make the trip. And we could see a monthly caravan, actualy 2 caravans one going each way transering mail, the ocasional passenger and trade goods. Again it would be similiar to the Butterfield and Wells Fargo stage lines that plied their way between San Bernardino and Arizona and Utah in the 19th Century As for coastal travel, I would not even thing the Pacific Coast Highway would be totaly passable after 3 years due to flooding, erroson and rockslides. Large segements would surely be open and passable, but the entire route hardly. Some areas near communities whose interest would be best suited in keeping it open would maintain it, but other sections would fall into disrepair. But, you forget 1 other route, A sea route! That was the normal means of transport well into the early years of the 20th century. Larger sailboats 30+ feet would be a easy rapid and realativly safe transportation route up and down the coast. It is not that hard with working compass, modern charts and if one is warry of storms taking care to avoid sailing to far out to sea or durring storm season.
__________________
"God bless America, the land of the free, but only so long as it remains the home of the brave."
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#6
02-25-2009, 10:14 AM
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What are your thoughts on the transfer of all regular troops to Germany and their replacement by a fully mobilised Ulster Defence Regiment as per canon? It seems to me to be almost inevitable, as HMG wont want to keep a Division's worth of trained troops in NI when there is a greater need for them elsewhere, but would appreciate the "local" point of view... I'll post my thoughts on Scotland later in the week when I have a little more online time...
__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#7
02-26-2009, 03:18 AM
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Ei! Great thread! It seems as we could built a very plausible Twilight new setup based on our opinions about our own countries
About the situation of Spain in the Twilight v2.2 setup, I think that the situation described in 2000 seems plausible. In the first stages of the war, I would say that some of the Western European Governments, Spain among them, would wield the argument that puts Germany as the first aggressor, and that the NATO treaty is essentially a defensive contract, extrapolating the immediate argument that they do not consider themselves tied to the unilateral offensive of Germany against Poland. I think that Spain would be one of the reluctant countries that would not abandon immediately NATO treaty. In v2.2 timeline, Canadian, USA and British forces only enter the war after Germany finds itself in trouble in Poland. There’s a period of time where Germany is fighting alone. I could imagine that this period is the crucial time of the desperate diplomatic efforts, where the Western European countries decide what to do. The result of these diplomatic games, talking about Spain, can be unclear. I would venture that probably Spain would enter the war with a right-wing government and would try to remain neutral with a left-wing government (in both cases I’m talking about moderate parties). If entering the war, I would not be in an unconditional way. I don’t see Spanish units in Poland. I tend to think that Spanish Army would remain in defensive positions, its direct implication only motivated by a direct aggression against a NATO country not implied in the offensive in Poland or any suspicious movement in the Mediterranean theater. In this last case, only the units directly attached to the FAR (Fuerzas de Acción RÃÂ*pida, Rapid Action Forces) would be deployed out of the borders. So, the participation in an operation like “Chartaginian†addressed to deactivate the Italian threat against NATO convoys would be plausible, because the airborne and air mobile brigades are part of the FAR. But all this would be done at a tremendous political cost for the government. In Spain, the political map is dominated by two big parties, a moderate right wing party (which was in the government by the time of the Twilight war, accordingly to v2.2 timeline), and a socialist, moderated left-wing party (currently in the government). Normally, both of them must rely on pacts with minority nationalist parties (Basques, Catalans, Galicians), that I suppose would be very reluctant to an implication with a new European war. So, we can suppose that the Spanish government would not leave NATO in 1996, but the political situation in Spain would be really hot. Regardless of the political position of the government and their obligations towards any NATO partners, without any external aggression against Spain, the population would be mostly against the war. And then, the nukes... Ports, petrochemical facilities, and possible naval bases. One single nuke in a important population center probably would overwhelm the whole medical-care and emergency system of the country. But the nukes will come one by one, accordingly to Twilight setup. Riots against the government would erupt after the first nuke, blaming the government for the deaths caused by our implication in a foreign war. Then, with the fall of the rest of the nukes, all central authority would cease to have any kind of control over the situation, for a time. A military self-imposed emergency government is probable. After all, the history of Spain is plenty of generals and other military leaders ready to save the country. But nobody would obey a central government without capacity to bring help and guarantee a certain degree of control. So, the Army will try to take command of the units not detached out of national territory, trying to exercise immediate control over the area where these units are based. With the lack of resources, cantonments are a plausible option, perhaps established in rural areas and trying to control the flow of refugees from the cities. Most of these units are not based in the territories that traditionally have more wishes to independence (Catalonia and Basque Country). So these territories would have less immediate help from the army. If we add to this that a good part of the industrial areas are in this zones (with the corresponding prize in tactical nukes) their old rejection towards any central government would grow. Despite the traditional strong desire of the military commanders to keep Spain unified, the surviving units, perhaps with an important number of desertions, will have their hands full in the immediate territories where the units were previously based. So, by 2000 AD I see some military-controlled areas in the central zone with the rest of the Spanish territory organized at municipal level, perhaps with the surviving traces or the new initiatives toward regional governments. Neither Catalans nor Basques will be thinking of their independence at the beginning. We’ll just be trying to survive. But if we manage to survive alone a few years and emerge beyond the local government without help, the future Spain will meet two independent regions “de facto†. Then, who knows? After the first nukes, the exodus from cities to rural areas would begin. At first, the rural villages would take in familiars and friends from the cities. After this first stage, the councils of towns and village probably will close their doors to the outsiders. In a country with a severe legislation about the possession of firearms, the most part of will be under military or police control. So, at least in the beginning, civilians would be virtually unprotected against the abuse of force by any of these two groups. An organized military unit could easily establish an independent cantonment if decide no to answer the call of the emergency government. Our moderate climatology would be an advantage in winter, and a good part of the country would remain untouched. But by 2000 the country will be disunited, thought is possible that some efforts to regain the unified control over most of the territory would have begun. Probably Balearic Islands and Canary Islands would be independent.
__________________
L'Argonauta, rol en català
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#8
02-26-2009, 06:37 AM
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Quote:
__________________
Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one bird.
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#9
02-26-2009, 06:43 AM
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#10
02-26-2009, 07:01 AM
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Re: the changing of the name to the Royal Irish Regiment, I always tend to stick with pre options for changes when it comes to unit names. Likewise, as I mostly go with the version 1 timeline, I still have the Troubles as on going, with no Good Friday agreement.
__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#12
02-26-2009, 07:31 AM
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 I should have made a point that the Royal Irish are split into two seperate sections - General Service and Home Service Battalions. The GS are a normal regular army formation that can be tasked exactly the same as any other unit, and consist mostly of what was formerly the Rangers and the HS units are exclusively deployed and based in NI. Whether that would stay the same in the event of the Twilight War is anyones guess, but I can see high desertion rates if any attempt was made to deploy the HS Battalion overseas, or even to mainland UK.
__________________
Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one bird.
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