Twilight state of the mind?

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by TiggerCCW UK

Overall, beyond some isolated incidents I think that people will attempt to get on with their lives as best they can and that, on local levels particularly in the border areas, there will be a degree of cooperation. I don't mean to make Ireland sound like a post war utopia, but I don't think it will be as bad as GDW may have made it look. Life will still be a lot tougher than it was pre war, but I don't envision a full on civil war. All IMHO of course!

Tigger, lots of good points in your post.

What are your thoughts on the transfer of all regular troops to Germany and their replacement by a fully mobilised Ulster Defence Regiment as per canon? It seems to me to be almost inevitable, as HMG wont want to keep a Division's worth of trained troops in NI when there is a greater need for them elsewhere, but would appreciate the "local" point of view...

I'll post my thoughts on Scotland later in the week when I have a little more online time...

[Marc]

Ei! Great thread! It seems as we could built a very plausible Twilight new setup based on our opinions about our own countries

About the situation of Spain in the Twilight v2.2 setup, I think that the situation described in 2000 seems plausible. In the first stages of the war, I would say that some of the Western European Governments, Spain among them, would wield the argument that puts Germany as the first aggressor, and that the NATO treaty is essentially a defensive contract, extrapolating the immediate argument that they do not consider themselves tied to the unilateral offensive of Germany against Poland. I think that Spain would be one of the reluctant countries that would not abandon immediately NATO treaty. In v2.2 timeline, Canadian, USA and British forces only enter the war after Germany finds itself in trouble in Poland. There’s a period of time where Germany is fighting alone. I could imagine that this period is the crucial time of the desperate diplomatic efforts, where the Western European countries decide what to do. The result of these diplomatic games, talking about Spain, can be unclear. I would venture that probably Spain would enter the war with a right-wing government and would try to remain neutral with a left-wing government (in both cases I’m talking about moderate parties). If entering the war, I would not be in an unconditional way. I don’t see Spanish units in Poland. I tend to think that Spanish Army would remain in defensive positions, its direct implication only motivated by a direct aggression against a NATO country not implied in the offensive in Poland or any suspicious movement in the Mediterranean theater. In this last case, only the units directly attached to the FAR (Fuerzas de Acción RÃÂ*pida, Rapid Action Forces) would be deployed out of the borders. So, the participation in an operation like “Chartaginianâ€Â� addressed to deactivate the Italian threat against NATO convoys would be plausible, because the airborne and air mobile brigades are part of the FAR.

But all this would be done at a tremendous political cost for the government. In Spain, the political map is dominated by two big parties, a moderate right wing party (which was in the government by the time of the Twilight war, accordingly to v2.2 timeline), and a socialist, moderated left-wing party (currently in the government). Normally, both of them must rely on pacts with minority nationalist parties (Basques, Catalans, Galicians), that I suppose would be very reluctant to an implication with a new European war. So, we can suppose that the Spanish government would not leave NATO in 1996, but the political situation in Spain would be really hot. Regardless of the political position of the government and their obligations towards any NATO partners, without any external aggression against Spain, the population would be mostly against the war. And then, the nukes... Ports, petrochemical facilities, and possible naval bases. One single nuke in a important population center probably would overwhelm the whole medical-care and emergency system of the country. But the nukes will come one by one, accordingly to Twilight setup. Riots against the government would erupt after the first nuke, blaming the government for the deaths caused by our implication in a foreign war. Then, with the fall of the rest of the nukes, all central authority would cease to have any kind of control over the situation, for a time. A military self-imposed emergency government is probable. After all, the history of Spain is plenty of generals and other military leaders ready to save the country. But nobody would obey a central government without capacity to bring help and guarantee a certain degree of control. So, the Army will try to take command of the units not detached out of national territory, trying to exercise immediate control over the area where these units are based. With the lack of resources, cantonments are a plausible option, perhaps established in rural areas and trying to control the flow of refugees from the cities. Most of these units are not based in the territories that traditionally have more wishes to independence (Catalonia and Basque Country). So these territories would have less immediate help from the army. If we add to this that a good part of the industrial areas are in this zones (with the corresponding prize in tactical nukes) their old rejection towards any central government would grow. Despite the traditional strong desire of the military commanders to keep Spain unified, the surviving units, perhaps with an important number of desertions, will have their hands full in the immediate territories where the units were previously based. So, by 2000 AD I see some military-controlled areas in the central zone with the rest of the Spanish territory organized at municipal level, perhaps with the surviving traces or the new initiatives toward regional governments. Neither Catalans nor Basques will be thinking of their independence at the beginning. We’ll just be trying to survive. But if we manage to survive alone a few years and emerge beyond the local government without help, the future Spain will meet two independent regions “de facto� . Then, who knows?

After the first nukes, the exodus from cities to rural areas would begin. At first, the rural villages would take in familiars and friends from the cities. After this first stage, the councils of towns and village probably will close their doors to the outsiders. In a country with a severe legislation about the possession of firearms, the most part of will be under military or police control. So, at least in the beginning, civilians would be virtually unprotected against the abuse of force by any of these two groups. An organized military unit could easily establish an independent cantonment if decide no to answer the call of the emergency government.

Our moderate climatology would be an advantage in winter, and a good part of the country would remain untouched. But by 2000 the country will be disunited, thought is possible that some efforts to regain the unified control over most of the territory would have begun. Probably Balearic Islands and Canary Islands would be independent.

[TiggerCCW UK]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Tigger, lots of good points in your post.

What are your thoughts on the transfer of all regular troops to Germany and their replacement by a fully mobilised Ulster Defence Regiment as per canon? It seems to me to be almost inevitable, as HMG wont want to keep a Division's worth of trained troops in NI when there is a greater need for them elsewhere, but would appreciate the "local" point of view...

I'll post my thoughts on Scotland later in the week when I have a little more online time...

Likewise I'll try and get something posted on that when I've a bit more time. Quick point on the name of the regiment though - from 1992 it was changed to the Royal Irish Regiment following the merger of the UDR and the Royal Irish Rangers.

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

What are your thoughts on the transfer of all regular troops to Germany and their replacement by a fully mobilised Ulster Defence Regiment as per canon? It seems to me to be almost inevitable, as HMG wont want to keep a Division's worth of trained troops in NI when there is a greater need for them elsewhere,

I don't have my books handy, but isn't that what happened? Not right away, but I seem to recall reading they did part way through... or was that something non-canon?

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Fusilier

I don't have my books handy, but isn't that what happened? Not right away, but I seem to recall reading they did part way through... or was that something non-canon?

You're right, that's what happened in canon...but I'd be interested in Tigger's thoughts on it...

Re: the changing of the name to the Royal Irish Regiment, I always tend to stick with pre options for changes when it comes to unit names. Likewise, as I mostly go with the version 1 timeline, I still have the Troubles as on going, with no Good Friday agreement.

[Fusilier]

Oh I get you. I misunderstood, sorry.

[TiggerCCW UK]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Re: the changing of the name to the Royal Irish Regiment, I always tend to stick with pre options for changes when it comes to unit names. Likewise, as I mostly go with the version 1 timeline, I still have the Troubles as on going, with no Good Friday agreement.

I'm sure the former members of the Unsafe Document Regiment are glad that their name lives on somewhere

I should have made a point that the Royal Irish are split into two seperate sections - General Service and Home Service Battalions. The GS are a normal regular army formation that can be tasked exactly the same as any other unit, and consist mostly of what was formerly the Rangers and the HS units are exclusively deployed and based in NI. Whether that would stay the same in the event of the Twilight War is anyones guess, but I can see high desertion rates if any attempt was made to deploy the HS Battalion overseas, or even to mainland UK.