OT? A New Cold War

[Olefin]

Keep in mind too that the effective Russian Army is actually quite small compared to their whole force. Most of their forces are still not that well trained, motivated or equipped. In many ways their army is more like the early WWII model right now - a core of well trained and well equipped men with the vast majority being little better than militia, albeit decently equipped militia. The question is will Putin have the time and the money to be able to make that mass of ineffectives into something like what the Soviets had in the early 80's

[Raellus]

You guys both raise a lot of good points, and I don't disagree with most of them. Kato, your shirt allergy comment made me LOL. But that's why I'm so troubled. I think Putin is very realistic about Russia's limitations. If you read the articles, Russia is actively trying to rectify its military shortcomings. It probably won't succeed to the point where those major, endemic weaknesses are completely cured, but it's trying. Likewise, Putin has shown that he is an opportunist and is ready to take aggressive action when he sees an advantage or opportunity arise. Russia is clearly testing the waters of expansionism now in the Ukraine and Moscow's learned that aggressive, expansionist behavior is not being adequately punished, not to any degree that has deterred said behavior. Recent reports suggest that active Russian military involvement in east Ukraine is actually increasing. Putin appears to be learning the same lessons that Hitler learned from his earliest land grabs: the West talks a big game but isn't willing to back it up.

My fear is Putin realizes Russian limitations and, at some point, events will reach an event horizon where Russia feels like the time to reclaim the old Soviet break-away republics is now or never. There are a number of factors that could trigger Russian aggression. I see those weaknesses that you pointed out Kato, especially the economic ones, as being pressures that will actually encourage increased aggression. For example, if Putin senses that he is losing control due to domestic disatisfaction in a weakening economy, it might increase his aggressive behaviro. The Argentine Junta did this in the Falklands in 1982.

I can definitely see him trying to pull a Crimea in Latvia and or Estonia. I can even see an outright military invasion of the Baltic Republics. Sure NATO could probably kick them out, but would they really try? They've taken a very soft stance regarding Crimea and Eastern Ukraine- the vibe NATO's been putting out there is that they probably wouldn't risk all-out war to defend the sovereignty of a few tiny nations. Granted, that's a worst-case scenario, but I really can see it happening. Heck, according to a couple of the articles, Estonia and Latvia, and even Poland, are afraid of being ditched by NATO if Russia were to attack.

[kato13]

If you are saying you think Putin is a major threat in the near term (say 3 years), I fully agree with you.

The longer term is where I have less concern.

Full disclosure regarding the shirt joke: Credit should belong to "The Daily Show".

[Olefin]

The real question is will Putin make the same mistake that Hitler made

Hitler got his way in the Rhineland and Austria and Czechoslovakia and planned to fight the West between 1942-1944

So he figured he could easily invade Poland, get what he needed there and then build up for the really big war - instead he miscalculated and got his big war right there and then - and in the end he lost

[Webstral]

George Friedman has some interesting observations about Russia and a second Cold War in The Next 100 Years. He called the Ukraine when he wrote the book. While I don't agree with everything he writes, the book is very well worth reading.

http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years...next+100+years

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Olefin

The real question is will Putin make the same mistake that Hitler made

Hitler got his way in the Rhineland and Austria and Czechoslovakia and planned to fight the West between 1942-1944

So he figured he could easily invade Poland, get what he needed there and then build up for the really big war - instead he miscalculated and got his big war right there and then - and in the end he lost

He got several months of "Sitzkrieg" as French and British forces sat on their hands watching the final stages of the partition of Poland. In the meantime, he conquered Norway and the Low Countries. After that, he steamrolled through France in about a month and sent the BEF across the Channel in tatters. At that point, things were looking really good for Nazi Germany.

By far, his biggest strategic mistake was invading Russia, and doing so before Great Britain could be knocked out of the war. Second to that, in terms of colossal strategic blunders, was declaring war on the U.S.A. Imagine how he could have complicated things between the U.K. and the U.S. by refusing to officially declare war on the U.S. The American public, who were already baying for Japanese blood, would have had a very hard time with a unilateral declaration of war against Germany when Japan was perceived as the more legitimate, imminent threat. Congress likely wouldn't have backed the the Germany First agreement. Hitler signed his own death warrant when he held true to the Tripartite Pact and declared war on the U.S.A.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Keep in mind too that the effective Russian Army is actually quite small compared to their whole force. Most of their forces are still not that well trained, motivated or equipped. In many ways their army is more like the early WWII model right now - a core of well trained and well equipped men with the vast majority being little better than militia, albeit decently equipped militia. The question is will Putin have the time and the money to be able to make that mass of ineffectives into something like what the Soviets had in the early 80's

^This. Exactly right. The post-Soviet Russian Army has tried to simultaneously retain the mobilization-type force of the Cold War alongside a professional, well-trained, well-equipped ready reaction force and it's really strained them. They've enjoyed a short period of economic happy times due to their energy exports but that isn't a constant. As the years go by all that old equipment gets older and they can't maintain it all properly.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

And there's always China to worry about as well...
http://news.yahoo.com/video/chinese-...044547470.html

[RN7]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

And there's always China to worry about as well...
http://news.yahoo.com/video/chinese-...044547470.html

The Chinese are shameless and will just flatly deny it as they do about everything else, and the blancmange in the White House will do absolutely nothing about it.