California Nuke Target List.

[Targan]

Fair enough. I guess if they didn't ramp up production of low-yield warheads and appropriate delivery systems in the T2K timeline, there's not much leeway for GMs after all.

[kato13]

Or course they could have changed anything. I change my timeline going back 1976 to allow the USSR to survive, any number of thing could have changed internally.

I just remembered a ton of research I did on this a few years back when I was trying to map out what strikes hit where and when globally.

[LT. Ox]

The north East Bay was at one time the largest oil refinery and storage complex in the world. Starting north of the old WWII LIBERTY ship building yards with Standard oil and continuing all the way to the Carquinez Strait Bridge several major oil companies abutted each other much like the cities with limit signs sharing the same sign post.
I lived at a location named TANK FARM HILL until 1966 and the Army. The storage tanks went from the Bay to interstate 80 and beyond. At least two of the petro chemical plants, Standard and Shell, had developing and manufacturing plants for chemical products such as weed and pest killers this was the early seventies and I worked as a security guard for standard while I went to School.
The Bridge from Richmond to San Rafael would almost certainly fall. This would present a navigation hazard. The Bridge at the straits would in all likelihood fall as well and would constitute a plug until cleared. The Moth ball fleet as it existed at the time was not nearly as large as it had been but a number of transport vessels were still floating. Mare Island was still in use and would be unlikely to survive as a functioning facility (perhaps a good source for scrounged material?)
As far as rail service goes the yards at Richmond were Santa Fe. Oakland and Berkley, Southern Pacific and Western Pacific. Passenger traffic is an interesting topic. My wife and I have used the Amtrak service from Grand Junction Co to Oakland on a number of occasions prior to 2000 and since. No direct rail service to San Francisco from the west, one detrained in Oakland and used the BART system to SF. Rail service form San Francisco to LA and San Diego does or did go on a daily schedule. I suppose you could have used Santa Fe across the southwest into LA and then north to SF. Since the mid to late sixty’s Freight service has had the right of way over passenger service. In situation presented in the game it is debatable if passenger service would be restored to WWII levels or not. Priorities and boarder problems considered my vote is for resumption as troops would not be using the lines all the time.
Well enough of an old Irish Football players rambling

[unkated]

Originally Posted by LT. Ox

As far as rail service goes the yards at Richmond were Santa Fe. Oakland and Berkley, Southern Pacific and Western Pacific. Passenger traffic is an interesting topic. My wife and I have used the Amtrak service from Grand Junction Co to Oakland on a number of occasions prior to 2000 and since. No direct rail service to San Francisco from the west, one detrained in Oakland and used the BART system to SF. Rail service form San Francisco to LA and San Diego does or did go on a daily schedule. I suppose you could have used Santa Fe across the southwest into LA and then north to SF. Since the mid to late sixty’s Freight service has had the right of way over passenger service.

Interesting. When the Mexicans invade - and LA is unusable as a transportation hub (oh, by the way, losing the West Coast it's largest port facility), train traffic loses its link across the SW up to San Francisco.

San Francisco becomes increasingly dependent on barge traffic across from Oakland for bulk supply delivery.

Originally Posted by LT. Ox

In situation presented in the game it is debatable if passenger service would be restored to WWII levels or not. Priorities and boarder problems considered my vote is for resumption as troops would not be using the lines all the time.

I know that military travel during WW2 (and after) was based on a priority system; depending on your mission or need, you were granted a priority level, and you could bump someone off a plane or train if you had a higher priority rating. I could see civilian passengers being granted a priority level for train (or bus) lower than military, meaning you can go if there is space. Also meaning that you could be detrained in the middle of nowhere if someone needed your seat in the middle of a trip from say Taos, NM to Chicago...

Now, wouldn't that be a different way to start a campaign?

You were selected from among low priority passengers on a military train, and dropped off in some platform in Arizona. your seats were needed by some intelligence types with hot information about the Mexican invasion. You are literally left on the platform with your loaded pack and rifle, with half a dozen equally annoyed-looking, inconvenienced soldiers. And their is some mortar fire in the distance....

There are some pickups in the dusty parking lot. Anyone have Hotwire skill? :-)

Yes, yes, Mechanic will work just fine for that purpose...

Uncle Ted

[Webstral]

The fate of the bridges is a valid concern. The first issue is whether a given bridge will be left standing after a specific nuclear attack. The second is the degree of impact the bridge will have on navigation.

The Benicia-Martinez Bridge will be affected by 500kt airbursts directed against targets in Benicia, Martinez, and Avon. Unless I have put the Martinez epicenter too far south, none of the 20psi rings from the Benicia, Martinez, and Avon blasts overlap the bridge. All of the 5psi rings overlap at least part of the bridge. Assuming for the moment that the Soviet strikes were very accurate (not a reliable assumption, but we’ll deal with one variable at a time), then the bridge is subjected to 3 separate overpressure waves sufficient to cause most residential buildings to collapse. We should bear in mind that residential buildings are very different structures from large bridges. Wood and even brick houses are flimsy compared to steel bridges meant to carry bumper-to-bumper 40-ton tractor trailers, if need be. Bridges are designed to withstand vertical compression, which is what an overpressure wave from an airburst at 2.5km will generate against this target, albeit at roughly a 30 degree angle. The Avon strike places the most horizontal stress on the bridge. However, this strike is the furthest from the bridge. The 5psi ring only covers the southern half of the bridge. Bay Area bridges are designed to withstand earthquakes: i.e., very significant vertical and horizontal stress. So while the cities nearby and the toll plazas might be knocked down, the Benicia-Martinez Bridge probably won’t be destroyed by the canon strikes nearby.

The Richmond Bridge is a different issue. The 20psi ring overlaps the 2km length nearest the Richmond end of the bridge. If the detonation is an airburst roughly over the center of the refinery complex at 2km, the easternmost section of the bridge probably is going into the water. How far west the collapse extends is unknown. If a span of the bridge falls into the middle of the shipping channel while attached on the western side, there’s definitely going to be a navigational hazard. If the bridge stays up over the shipping channel, there shouldn’t be a problem. If the bridge drops a span completely into the shipping channel, the extent of the navigational hazard is hard to forecast. Ocean-going (deep draft) vessels might not be able to get through, but shallow draft barges and smaller craft might be unaffected. It’s hard to say.

While I cannot fault anyone for sticking to the published materials, which state that Richmond is subjected to a 1.5Mt airburst, I remain committed to the idea that an alternative explanation ought to be explored. A 1.5Mt airburst against Richmond is virtually the equivalent of a nuclear attack on Oakland and San Francisco. If the target really is the refinery, then an airburst of this magnitude in this location runs the risk of having the Americans conclude that the exchange has moved into the city-busting phase. There is great room for latitude here, since the Richmond strike clearly is out of step with the other three strikes against Bay Area refineries. Something unusual is happening here, since logically all four targets should be hit at once with warheads of similar yield. A great many explanations may be offered for the distinctiveness of the Richmond attack. I offer the ground burst model mentioned in a previous post as one means of sticking to the idea of a limited exchange focused on important economic and industrial targets but not on flat-out city-busting.

Another possible explanation for the 1.5Mt strike that also gets around the city-busting challenge is an attack that is deliberately off-target. For instance, an airburst centered 7km north-northwest of the center of the refinery complex includes the complex in the 5psi ring as well as the thermal radiation ring. It’s not hard to imagine fires destroying the complex. Richmond and San Pablo are doomed, but Oakland and San Francisco are far enough away that they are not obviously targets of the attack.

Now that I am looking at this model, I like it better than the ground burst. Fallout got mentioned above. I looked at the fallout model again, and it really does look like Fairfield and Sacramento get destroyed by fallout. Since Sixth US Army is listed as controlling an area anchored on Sacramento-Oakland, and since that very area gets hammered really hard in a 1.5Mt ground burst model, I think I’m going to have to abandon the ground burst model. Too bad. I worked hard on that.

[LT. Ox]

Well thought out and written Webstral.
I am not an engineer, my degree is in heavy weapons and small arms and tactics laugh.
I was thinking of the damage done to the Bay Bridge in ’89. While the piers did not let go sections fell. I am not sure if this would be the same with either of the spans we are discussing and if only the road sections let go they would not implead river traffic to a significant degree.

I may have let my Hollywood driven thinking drive my thoughts. Too many movies of explosion and floods taking down the bridge affecting my reasoning. I am unsure of single direction forces being similar to the earthquake type safety features now built into structures in the Bay Area.

It does seem that traffic would be stopped for an unknown period of time across both structures. Looking at the pictures of the equipment and material needed to repair the bay bridge, it would likely be way down the priority list. I am trying to find just how far rerouting of rail traffic would have to go if the river cannot be crossed at the straights.

My other thoughts are just what needs to go up or down that part of the bay after the strikes? Prior, it was almost entirely oil products, a very little Navel activity and some cargo for Sacramento I think. After the ford plant shut down in Richmond the need for container transshipment ended in that part of the bay, the alameda and west bay taking everything.

So, depending on how you run your game, rehab the area is going to be by truck for a long time. Just what salvageable material one could find, what condition and how much, well that is again up to the GM.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by LT. Ox

It does seem that traffic would be stopped for an unknown period of time across both structures.

100% agreed. Given the fact that Benicia and Martinez are going to be hot for a while, I think it might be safe to say that there will be no traffic across the Benicia-Martinez Bridge for a long time. Also, the road network feeding onto the bridge is going to be in very poor condition on either side of the bridge.

Vallejo probably is destroyed by a firestorm. I-80 runs down the eastern side of the city, which is the side nearest Benicia. I’m not an engineer, either, so I can’t predict how the fires will affect the surface of the highway given its separation from the nearest combustible structures. There are some unknowns involved. For instance, if the attack occurs at rush hour, there’s going to be a lot more fuel on the road than if the attack occurs at 2:15am. On the other hand, at night one will have more tractor trailers on the road. Some of these tractor trailers will be tanker trucks hauling highly flammable liquids. A 20-ton tank of burning petrochemicals is not good for the road surface. It’s not hard to see one direction or the other being completely blocked by damage to the road wherever this occurs. If we’re very unlucky, a fire like this occurs side-by-side on either side of the highway. Or an overpass is so damaged that it becomes unusable. Also, I-80 runs through San Pablo and Richmond on the south side of the bridge. This is another case of a relatively intact bridge with heavily impacted roads on either side.

I agree, too, that no one is going across the Richmond Bridge anytime soon. Even if the bridge stays up, Richmond is going to be completely destroyed. Burning tanks of fuel will melt the roadway at the eastern end of the bridge and probably damage the concrete. There is no convenient bypass that won’t also have been severely affected by the destruction of Richmond.

Originally Posted by LT. Ox

My other thoughts are just what needs to go up or down that part of the bay after the strikes?

I imagine the primary products moving through San Pablo Bay and Carquinez Strait are food and security services, in that order. Once the relocation effort gets underway, there probably will be a flurry of human traffic upriver to provide labor in the Delta and in the Central Valley. Barge traffic will assume an even greater importance, given its energy efficiency. Thus the amount of radiation one is exposed to in the Strait becomes pretty important.

I notice that for a 500kt explosion, the 500 rem ring reaches near to the shore for all three explosions. I don’t know how this translates into rads on the ground in January 1998. It would be good to know more about how much, if any, radiation is going to affect someone in the shipping lane passing through the eastern end of the Strait. I imagine the Navy is going to be quite keen to measure that right away.