Turks shoot down a Russia Su-24

[Olefin]

Fear mongering is trying to make something much bigger than it is

and it also depends on who you are dealing with in the equation - and if there is one man I would not trust to make rational decisions where he sees his countries interests being interfered with its Putin

now does that make me think he is going to do something really stupid? No actually he isnt that unbalanced for that - but do something rash and not well thought out that leads to other things - yeah that I could see

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Putin might be considered a tyrant but he is by no definition "unstable".
Everything he has done has made strategic sense for Russia.

For example, Putin didn't order the attack on the Ukraine simply because he was feeling a bit "unstable" or a bit "petulant" or because needed to prove his manhood that day, he had very well defined strategic reasons for doing so.
The attack on the Ukraine ensured that Russia has continued access to a large, capable (and important to Russian interests) maritime base in the Black Sea. A base that Russia was leasing from the Ukraine, a base that the Ukraine leadership had said that they were looking at cancelling the Russian leasing agreement and hence Russian access to.

[Raellus]

Putin has been quite rational. He's applied just enough force to get what he wants without serious repercussions (excepting sanctions).

That said, he may underestimate the West's reaction to his response to this shoot-down is. This is where things could get dicey. I'm really interested to see what his next move will be.

[Olefin]

And a base he could have kept access to without having to go to war, without having to piss the US and the Europeans off, and without any bloodshed.

In other words instead of doing the calm rational thought out process of just buying the Ukranians off and getting it with negoation instead he did the time honored "lets just beat the hell out of them and get it quick" approach

and look at the mess he is left with - if anything the Baltic states are even further parts of NATO, the old Warsaw Pact nations are even close to the West and you have Europe fiinally realizing that disarming to the point they did was pretty stupid

now he pokes his nose into Syria and gets burned - and by the Turks of all people (if there is one group of people the Russians do not like, after the Germans, its the Turks)

and again I am not saying he is unstable - but the man makes decisions too quickly and without anyone to counterbalance him or offer him real guidance beyond "sounds great to me!"

[Olefin]

Now if you want real fear mongering I could point out the timing of the shoot down as it applies to the game - TDM 2015 anyone?

(sorry couldnt resist)

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

And a base he could have kept access to without having to go to war, without having to piss the US and the Europeans off, and without any bloodshed.

In other words instead of doing the calm rational thought out process of just buying the Ukranians off and getting it with negoation instead he did the time honored "lets just beat the hell out of them and get it quick" approach

and look at the mess he is left with - if anything the Baltic states are even further parts of NATO, the old Warsaw Pact nations are even close to the West and you have Europe fiinally realizing that disarming to the point they did was pretty stupid

now he pokes his nose into Syria and gets burned - and by the Turks of all people (if there is one group of people the Russians do not like, after the Germans, its the Turks)

and again I am not saying he is unstable - but the man makes decisions too quickly and without anyone to counterbalance him or offer him real guidance beyond "sounds great to me!"

Yeah, you are.

Originally Posted by Olefin

guys there are lots of people on this board who do have information that is not in the public domain - and those sources they have also have friends in the news media who could have reported it as well - and what Jason did isnt fear mongering - we are dealing with an unstable tyrant in Russia who has already put his country into three wars (Georgia, Ukraine and Syria) and who lives and dies by showing off his "manhood"

and the Turks shooting down that Su-24 is pretty much sticking a finger in his eye and saying "what are you going to do about it?" - and if that wasnt enough blowing away the SAR helo and killing the pilots in their chutes is not a way to make him cool down

Unless you are referring to another tyrant in Russia?

(sorry couldn't resist)

[Olefin]

well ok then I am saying that - but I dont mean unstable in the Hitlerian mode where he could do something historically stupid (i.e. declaring war on the US when there was no reason to do it, insisting on defending Germany west of the Rhine instead of pulling everything to the other side, etc..)

a better way would be to say that I dont think he really thinks before he acts - he jumps too quickly and too emotionally - and while thats good in some professions its not good for the leader of a country that armed with nukes - as for him being a tyrant that i wont take back - face it one of the fastest ways to get dead in Russia right now is to oppose him publicly

and he is surrounded by men who basically rubber stamp everything he says - to me thats a tyrant - i.e. no one has the guts to say the Emperor has no clothes

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

a better way would be to say that I dont think he really thinks before he acts

Fair enough, your opinion.

I couldn't disagree with you more.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Originally Posted by Olefin

And a base he could have kept access to without having to go to war, without having to piss the US and the Europeans off, and without any bloodshed.

This is not correct. The Ukrainian government had decided to cancel the long-term lease and tell the Russians to leave after a grace period of a few years. Those few years were deemed sufficient for the Russians to pack up and go home whereupon the base was most likely going to be taken over by the Ukrainian navy.