US Navy Ships of the Twilight War

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Can you cite some evidence to back that claim up? Your reference to the USS Virginia for example - the battle mentioned in Satellite Down dates from March 1999 and as you say yourself left the sole surviving ship very heavily damaged (specifically it would have sunk within an hour if it hadn't been beached) so I don't follow how that can be used as an argument against a heavily damaged USN?

The argument is that the USN was still operating such a task force off the Pacific as late as 1999 - thus the chances that the USN has ships available for escorting the MilGov and CivGov reinforcements to Europe and not just a “ramshackle destroyer” as was previously said is pretty high. Ie the USN isn’t completely down and out. And per the RDF and the notes that I used that Frank Frey posted there were definitely active US task forces still operational off the Persian Gulf and Kenya in 2001. And by heavily damaged I mean a USN that couldn’t even provide a single escort ship for three divisions heading for Europe thru the Med.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

The argument is that the USN was still operating such a task force off the Pacific as late as 1999 - thus the chances that the USN has ships available for escorting the MilGov and CivGov reinforcements to Europe and not just a “ramshackle destroyer” as was previously said is pretty high. Ie the USN isn’t completely down and out. And per the RDF and the notes that I used that Frank Frey posted there were definitely active US task forces still operational off the Persian Gulf and Kenya in 2001. And by heavily damaged I mean a USN that couldn’t even provide a single escort ship for three divisions heading for Europe thru the Med.

OK, so the reality of the canon is actually that it accounts for what, maybe twenty to twenty five ships? There’s seven in the RDF Sourcebook, five in the Korean Sourcebook, the John Hancock is mentioned in Going Home, there’s a reference to Tarawa in the V2 Nautical Guide, the destroyers mentioned in Challenge magazine, and the Corpus Christi plus however many you put in Kenya (I haven’t read that so I don’t know the exact figure).

That’s out of a US Navy that peaked at 594 vessels in 1987 according to Wikipedia. So we’re missing 569 vessels give or take a few. I just wanted to make sure that there was nothing in canon that I didn’t know about that accounted for at least some of that number given your earlier statement, but it appears that there isn’t, so the reality of canon doesn’t really support anything (one could argue that if anything it supports the opposite view as something like over 95 % of the US Navy’s strength is unaccounted for. That’s a pretty big number).

That’s fine, it’s obviously up to each individual how they want to interpret what might have happened to those missing ships. FWIW I’d be inclined to agree with the view put forward by several people that there are still sufficient ships out there not specifically mentioned to carry out escort tasks and what not (I don't know who used the phrase “ramshackle destroyer” but it wasn't me), although again you need to pay attention to timing - FYI the Civgov reinforcement mission to Yugoslavia took place in probably 1998, maybe 1999 (there’s a likely discrepancy in the US Army Vehicle Guide - the 76th and 80th Divisions are quoted as deploying to Yugoslavia in October 1998, at which point they came under the command of IV Corps. Same source states the 42nd Division deployed in the autumn of 1999, together with IV Corps HQ. So unless IV Corps operated without its HQ for a year that’s probably a typo and the three Divisions deployed in October 1998. Having enough ships to provide an escort force in October 1998 doesn’t really prove anything one way or the other if you’re talking about Summer 2000 as your game point.

[Olefin]

I am talking about 1998-1999 - that’s the Virginia battle, that’s the escort missions for the last MilGov and CivGov reinforcements to Europe and Korea, that’s the sailings for the convoys that brought the forces to Kenya that enabled the US to keep the refinery and port at Mombasa in operation. So they weren’t reduced to sending unescorted troopships for those ops. And earlier I posted the ships that are part of the forces based in Kenya which were based on Frank’s notes as well as my own imagining. They include a small patrol force, a naval task force centered on a missile cruiser and an amphib/support force that is there to provide support both for Kenya and for the forces in the Gulf.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

I am talking about 1998-1999. that’s the Virginia battle, that’s the escort missions for the last MilGov and CivGov reinforcements to Europe and Korea, that’s the sailings for the convoys that brought the forces to Kenya

OK, so we're agreed that excepting Kenya, none of this proves anything one way or the other about the possible state of the US Navy in the summer of 2000 (and the Virginia battle isn't really relevant as none of those ships survived, so again if anything it only supports the worst case scenario, i.e. the existence of a ship or ships in service in 1999 is not proof that the same ships are still operational in 2000) and the actual reality of canon is that somewhere in the region of 569 vessels are unaccounted for?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

OK, so the reality of the canon is actually that it accounts for what, maybe twenty to twenty five ships? There’s seven in the RDF Sourcebook, five in the Korean Sourcebook, the John Hancock is mentioned in Going Home, there’s a reference to Tarawa in the V2 Nautical Guide, the destroyers mentioned in Challenge magazine, and the Corpus Christi plus however many you put in Kenya (I haven’t read that so I don’t know the exact figure).

The KPS isn't officially canon, but thanks for including it. Here's a freebie for those of you who don't have a copy.

Chinhae

This small coastal city, 16 miles (25 km) west of Busan, is the home of the ROK Naval Academy and a joint ROKN-USN base. A small flotilla of operational USN vessels (USS Missouri, USS Vincennes, USS Des Moines, USS Duncan, and USS Semmes) rests at anchor in the harbor, stranded due to lack of fuel. The 1st Brigade, 7th ID, assists the beached sailors in defending the city and its harbor. Marauders from the Busan area are becoming an increasing nuisance in the area. [Emphasis added]

So yeah, those five vessels aren't going anywhere until fuel can be found/transported to the port. This is given as a mission teaser elsewhere in the sourcebook.

Originally Posted by Olefin

And earlier I posted the ships that are part of the forces based in Kenya which were based on Frank’s notes as well as my own imagining. They include a small patrol force, a naval task force centered on a missile cruiser and an amphib/support force that is there to provide support both for Kenya and for the forces in the Gulf.

The naval force you've created for East Africa is the exception that proves the rule. It's pretty much the only operational naval TF in the world by 2001 (you effectively tripled named USN vessels in canon with your source book).

Based on Rainbow 6's research in the balance of canon, there's less than a dozen additional operational (meaning at sea or ready to put to sea) USN vessels worldwide by that same year. So yeah, according to canon, the USN is shattered. What we're doing here is trying to determine how that end result came about. There are a few major naval battles described in canon. AFAIK, those that are occurred in the N. Atlantic and Mediterranean. I tried to fill in the gaps for the pacific by positing the following in the KPS (again, non-canonical):

U.S. 7th Fleet

From December of 1996, through 1998, U.S. 7th Fleet was actively engaged against Soviet and KPA naval forces in the waters around Korea. Just days after the North Korean invasion of the ROK, 7th Fleet CVGBs conducted air strikes against North Korean naval facilities, destroying most of the KPA fleet at anchor. Errant KPA submarines were duly hunted down and sunk before they could do much damage. Soviet subs proved more formidable prey, frequently inflicting losses on convoys and USN ASW task forces before being sent to the bottom in turn.

In the summer of 1997, a 7th Fleet Expeditionary Strike Group, supported by a CVBG and a Battleship Battle Group, conducted the amphibious assault landing of 4th Marine Division and 6th ROK Marine Brigade "Black Dragon" on the North Korean coast south of Nampo (using the Taedong River to shield the Marines' left flank). 16-inch naval gunfire delivered by the battleship USS Missouri proved invaluable in destroying KPA coastal artillery and anti-aircraft defenses. The operation was a resounding success and USN losses were negligible.

Successful CVBG raids against Soviet naval facilities at Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, and Vladivostok, USSR nevertheless resulted in significant aircraft and surface vessel losses to 7th Fleet. Additional losses were accrued during fleet actions around the Kuriles and off the Kamchatka Peninsula (these were joint operations with U.S. 3rd Fleet). 1997 witnessed Soviet nuclear strikes on U.S. naval bases in the United States, Japan, the Philippines, destroying several more USN Pacific Fleet vessels at anchor. By July 2000, very few 7th Fleet vessels remain operational, and most of these are laid up in port due to lack of fuel (see the entry for Chinhae on p. 37).

So, add in a few smaller, limited engagements, submarine v. convoy escort duels, strikes against naval bases, accidents (a la Bonhomme Richard), mine strikes, and above all else lack of fuel and the missile/torpedo drought, and, for all intents and purposes, by 2001, the USN has more or less ceased to exist.

Except, of course, off the coast of E. Africa.

-

[Olefin]

Keep in mind that I followed Frank Frey’s notes on what ships would be at Mombasa - I added the amphib and repair/support task force but the patrol and combat task force are per what he had in mind. So while you have operational ships the overall combat capable force is in line with what Frank Frey had for his unpublished Kenya module.

And given the fact that the Mombasa refinery and port is what is keeping the US forces in the Middle East a going concern there definitely would be operational US Naval ships there. And the USN is definitely a going concern in the Persian Gulf - that is an operational carrier task force with a heavy cruiser that still has ammo - ie they just supported the Marines landing at Char Bahar in late 2000.

As far as the other ships most likely you have an awful lot of ships laid up in various ports due to lack of fuel or that the USN isn’t using due to only having a single 5 inch gun as armament. That’s why the two DD’s at Cape May are still operational - they have some fuel and they have multiple guns - making them actually worth using. I highly doubt the USN lost 500 plus ships sunk or so badly damaged they can never be used again

However having bunch of ships out of fuel or no weapons beyond shells for their single 5 inch gun and the 50 cals - and thus not really being able to perform any useful function - heck yes

Originally Posted by Olefin

Keep in mind that I followed Frank Frey’s notes on what ships would be at Mombasa - I added the amphib and repair/support task force but the patrol and combat task force are per what he had in mind. So while you have operational ships the overall combat capable force is in line with what Frank Frey had for his unpublished Kenya module.

And given the fact that the Mombasa refinery and port is what is keeping the US forces in the Middle East a going concern there definitely would be operational US Naval ships there. And the USN is definitely a going concern in the Persian Gulf - that is an operational carrier task force with a heavy cruiser that still has ammo - ie they just supported the Marines landing at Char Bahar in late 2000.

As far as the other ships most likely you have an awful lot of ships laid up in various ports due to lack of fuel or that the USN isn’t using due to only having a single 5 inch gun as armament. That’s why the two DD’s at Cape May are still operational - they have some fuel and they have multiple guns - making them actually worth using. I highly doubt the USN lost 500 plus ships sunk or so badly damaged they can never be used again

However having bunch of ships out of fuel or no weapons beyond shells for their single 5 inch gun and the 50 cals - and thus not really being able to perform any useful function - heck yes

What I don't get is why that entire Africa premise is needed at all. RDF makes it clear that there's surviving refinery capacity in the Middle East. "Most is consumed locally, but a trickle is exported by the various nations who control the oilfields." THEY EXPORT OIL. Diesel costs less than Eth. That's not just cannon.. that's old school SENIOR Cannon... No take backs Frank Frey.

If Mombasa or Kenya was so important to the RDF in the Middle East, I'd probably get more than one sentence, which doesn't' mention oil, when I search the RDF PDF for Mombasa or Kenya.

SOCCENT provides the majority of military advisors for the
region. Its Special Forces A Teams are in action from Iran to
Kenya and work with such ethnic/racial groups as the Kurdish
hill tribes of southwestern Iran and the Masai warriors of Kenya.

That's it. It's not Kenya supporting the RDF with its refinery. It's ODAs supporting Masai warriors.

Personally, I think sending the 173rd to Mombasa comes across as a malaria ridden fever dream with 'white savoir' overtones IMHO. It's a superfluous bolt-on to allow expansion of game into Big Safari territory. That's my take at least.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

And given the fact that the Mombasa refinery and port is what is keeping the US forces in the Middle East a going concern

Are you saying that the overall premise of the American presence in Kenya is that Kenyan oil is what's sustaining the US in the Middle East?

That's an...interesting...take. Let's park for the moment the fact that according to wikipedia oil doesn't appear to have been discovered in Kenya until 2012 (as I said, I haven't read the African sourcebook so presume there's some sort of butterflying away of that) and isn't scheduled to hit full production / exportation until 2024. Full production looks like it might be in the region of 46,000 barrels per day (i.e. three to four years from now).

https://kenyanwallstreet.com/kenyas-...0-bpd-in-2023/

In 1998 (the closest I could find to 1996) Saudia Arabia was producing just short of ten million barrels per day.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...rrels-per-day/

So parking the fact that Kenya was really producing zero barrels per day in 1996 and using the best case (2023) figure of approx 50,000 (rounded off), Kenyan production was approx half of one per cent of Saudi Arabia's (and that's only Saudi Arabia - that doesn't include Kuwait, the UAE, etc which probably adds at least another four to five million barrels).

I realise that refineries in the Gulf have suffered damage, but as has already been mentioned, there's still sufficient production / refining facilities available in the Gulf to allow export (RDF Sourcebook pg12). Even a 99% reduction in production would still leave somewhere around three times Kenya's full 2023 production. So I find the idea that Kenyan oil 'is what is keeping US forces in the Middle East a going concern' to be quite implausible.

[Legbreaker]

And don't forget as I previously mentioned, WWII convoys often only had ONE warship as escort, usually an older WWI era destroyer (at least earlier on), and many times convoys sailed without any escorts at all. And that's when there were far more enemy vessels in the area than in T2K.

Without more modern munitions such as missiles and torpedoes, most warships are little more than floating targets. Yes, they still have .50 cal machineguns, GPMGs and (in some cases) they might be lucky enough to have a few rounds for a single 76mm gun. The launchers for the missiles etc may still be serviceable, but what good are they without the ammo? We also know torpedoes were scarce as only a handful could be scrounged up from the entire east coast area controlled by Milgov to arm the Los Angeles.

Submarines are clearly in very short supply (only two known to still exist in 2000, plus one French sub mentioned in "What's Polish for G'Day"), and airpower is virtually non-existent, so the only likely threats will be surface vessels after 1997. It may well be that the troop ships and cargo vessels sent by Civgov acted as their own escorts - just slap a TOW, AA gun, etc on the deck and you should be able to scare off most of the probable opponents.

As for the situation in the middle east, yes, there are some ships there being held for sea lift duties, but how often do they actually sail? How long does it take to produce enough fuel to supply them for not only the initial landing, but the continuing resupply operations for the troops on the ground?

Also, where are the munitions coming from to resupply them? Pretty sure there's no factories in the region churning out Harpoons, and there's certainly nothing coming from the US (or anywhere else for that matter, except MAYBE France - not that they'd be sharing).

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

As for the situation in the middle east, yes, there are some ships there being held for sea lift duties, but how often do they actually sail? How long does it take to produce enough fuel to supply them for not only the initial landing, but the continuing resupply operations for the troops on the ground?

Also, where are the munitions coming from to resupply them? Pretty sure there's no factories in the region churning out Harpoons, and there's certainly nothing coming from the US (or anywhere else for that matter, except MAYBE France - not that they'd be sharing).

1) They sail enough to send recruiters to Europe, then sail them and their recruits back to the Middle East.... lol

One of the alternatives at Bremerhaven will be a "recruiting booth" offering the option of service with CENT- COM rather than returning to the United States.

If they missed the boat, there is the distinct possibility that recruiters for CENTCOM will attempt to locate remaining stragglers in Europe and offer to lift them out and to the Persian Gulf.

2) Is there anything in cannon about Israel being nuked? I couldn't find anything in RDF. They have been developing/producing their own ASMs since '62. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_(missile)

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Spartan-117

1) They sail enough to send recruiters to Europe, then sail them and their recruits back to the Middle East....

Or did they simply send a radio signal asking for volunteers?
It also wouldn't take much to get those volunteers around to the middle east - it's not like they've got anything more than their personal equipment and rifle, everything else had to be left to the Germans. The fuel used could have been part of the oil from the tanker found floating in the North Sea (or wherever it was) by the Germans.

Originally Posted by Spartan-117

2) Is there anything in cannon about Israel being nuked? I couldn't find anything in RDF. They have been developing/producing their own ASMs since '62. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_(missile)

Not a thing as far as I can see, but would Israel be any more willing to share their missiles than the French? Would they even be compatible? How would they get them over to Iran through a region openly hostile to Israel?
Sure, they could be flown across, but cargo aircraft are notoriously vulnerable and it's far from the most economical way to do it anyway.