Yugoslavia

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by bash

I think a more general question is why would any governing power in CONUS even think of deploying forces overseas in 1998? The 76th was attacked by bandits moving through Virginia. Who then thought "you know what it's cool send them to Yugoslavia"? There's enough problems in CONUS where even two under strength light divisions could do a lot of good.

You're right, but canon says it happens, so I'm trying to answer those questions. The best I can come up with ATM is that the Pentagon believes it can win the war in Europe, after which it could bring most of its troops home to eject the Mexican military and restore law an order.

As for Yugoslavia, it shares a border with Romania, a new NATO nation in which canon tells us there are oil fields/refineries still capable of producing fuel.

Originally Posted by bash

My problems:

• The US Navy essentially ceases to exist as a force by 1998. What sort of escort will a dozen slow-ass freighters have crossing the Atlantic?
• By 1998 (IIRC from Med Cruise) Gilbralter is a glowing chunk of rock and the French practically blockage the Straight of Gibraltar. They're going to let an American convoy pass into the Med?
• Does Yugoslavia even have an adequate port to disembark the two divisions? It's probably a dozen ships, you'd need a decent sized port to disembark the divisions in good order.

Those are legit, but I don't think any of the obstacles presented are insurmountable

-The v1 history says a few naval vessels are are cobbled together to serve as convoy escorts.

-Nuking Gibraltar is not going to close the straits. Now the French navy, that's another proposition. But if the US made clear through diplomatic channels that the convoy was en route to the eastern Med, why would the French risk trying to stop them? Does France really want to risk going to war with the US (especially in the nuclear phase of the conflict) just to display dominance in the western Med?

-Split's got decent port facilities. Neither of the divisions sent in 1998 had heavy armor. The 42nd ID only has a dozen M60s or so. Split could handle that.

Originally Posted by bash

So a dozen airliners are cobbled together and the personnel are flown over with their equipment to use the in-country vehicles/supplies. They could be in Yugoslavia in a day. A relatively small forward force could set up an airport or two.

That would definitely be faster, but if the Greek and Italian navies could stop a sea convoy, their air forces could stop some airliners. It's more likely that, by mid-98, the Greek and Italian navies had been effectively neutralized, and/or the USN escort force was strong enough to deter them or keep them at bay. And ships are better at transporting bulk supplies (rations, ammo, etc.) than aircraft.

[bash]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Nuking Gibraltar is not going to close the straits. Now the French navy, that's another proposition. But if the US made clear through diplomatic channels that the convoy was en route to the eastern Med, why would the French risk trying to stop them?

I don't mention Gilbralter being nuked to suggest the straight would be closed. It's does mean there's no friendly force/port for an American convoy in the Strait. By 1998 I wouldn't consider the French as allies, not enemies but definitely not allies. I don't see the French having any reason to let an American convoy into the Med unless it was specifically to evacuate American forces.

Not everything has to make sense but it's one of those things that just sounds really weird and doesn't make any sense. The writers did it for a reason but it's still weird looking back on it.

Originally Posted by Raellus

If the Greek and Italian navies could stop a sea convoy, their air forces could stop some airliners. It's more likely that, by mid-98, the Greek and Italian navies had been effectively neutralized, and/or the USN escort force was strong enough to deter them or keep them at bay.

I would assume the Italian and Greek navies are coral reefs and their air forces non-existent by 1998. If the French are going to let an armed American convoy sail into the Med I don't see why they won't let some airliners through. They'll have a faster transit, you know they don't carry heavy weapons, and if they so much as sneeze in the wrong direction they'd get shot down.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by bash

I don't mention Gilbralter being nuked to suggest the straight would be closed. It's does mean there's no friendly force/port for an American convoy in the Strait. By 1998 I wouldn't consider the French as allies, not enemies but definitely not allies. I don't see the French having any reason to let an American convoy into the Med unless it was specifically to evacuate American forces.

Right, but why risk war with the US by refusing the convoy passage? The US has already proven itself more than willing to huck a nuke or several at its enemies. Is that a risk the French would take to stop a convoy headed for Yugoslavia, a country in which it has little to no strategic interest c. 1998 (compared to other parts of the world)? Americans in Yugoslavia are not going to be able to help Germany stop France from annexing the Rhineland. Why turn them back so they could divert to NW Europe instead?

Originally Posted by bash

I would assume the Italian and Greek navies are coral reefs and their air forces non-existent by 1998. If the French are going to let an armed American convoy sail into the Med I don't see why they won't let some airliners through. They'll have a faster transit, you know they don't carry heavy weapons, and if they so much as sneeze in the wrong direction they'd get shot down.

Maybe so, but the Italians and Greeks still presumably have operational SAMs. As recent events have shown, airliners are very vulnerable to SAMs.

As you pointed out, when it comes to the Balkans, the writers made some decisions that are pretty hard to explain/justify, but that's what I'm trying to do.