WP units in China

[unipus]

Thank you for the thoughtful posts. The German reunification has always struck me as flatly ridiculous for a bunch of reasons, some of which I've been able to articulate over time and some I haven't. Your post helped put the rubber to the road, so to speak!

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by shrike6

This is probably irrelevant to what you are asking Raellus but wasn't it implied in one of the NPCs in either RDF or King's Ransom, can't remember which one, that the prewar CIA played a good sized hand in this "sudden" German reunification. I don't have my books with me.

I'm not very familiar with that module, Shrike, but I wouldn't be surprised.

@Ursus, you make a lot of good points. I'm not arguing that you're wrong (because I concede that you are probably right), but I want to address a couple of them in the interest of trying to make the v1 history work as much as possible.

The Soviets would have spun the border incidents with China, painting the Chinese as the aggressors, inflating Soviet casualties, etc. Only Pact leaders (civilian and military) with access to reliable intelligence* and/or the Western media** would have a better sense of the truth.

It's important to remember that in the v1 timeline the Soviet Union is still a superpower. How many Warsaw Pact nations would have stood up to the USSR at the height of its power? Doing so would be very risky.

Now, I know that it's apples and oranges, but try look at the Chinese adventure as being a bit like Desert Shield/Storm, in some respects. In 1991, the US, as the world's sole superpower at the time, could have handled Iraq on its own. The UK and France, as NATO signatories, were under no obligation to participate, but the US asked for their assistance, and they acquiesced.

So, now the still-powerful Soviet Union claims that it was savagely attacked by China and has launched a major military op to reduce the PLA's ability to ever threaten Soviet Asia again. The Chinese are putting up much stronger resistance than anticipated. The Soviets claim that this indicates China was already preparing to launch its own attack on the USSR when the Red Army preempted it. Who among the Pact is going to argue?

The Soviet Union then asks for assistance. East Germany and Bulgaria- the most loyal of the Pact nations- promptly promise to pitch in. This creates a bit of "Socialist Fraternal" pressure on the more reticent PACT nations. They begrudgingly prepare to assist.

Perhaps the Soviets sweetens the deal. They agree to foot most of the bill. How? Energy is a convenient deus ex machina. Cancellation of debts?

Perhaps a couple of the Pact governments miscalculate. They believe that by cooperating, they'll be able to earn greater autonomy from Moscow.

Fast forward a bit. It's been a year or so. It's now painfully obvious to the PACT nations that they've been had, but what can they do about it? Their armed forces have been reduced in size and strength by their contributions to the war in China (a couple of divisions or brigades each, at most, but still). The Soviet Union seems increasingly desperate and, therefore, dangerous. There's whispers that the Politburo is seriously considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons in China. Do the Pact nations (other than Romania) take a chance and rebel?

Now imagine that pro-Western and/or anti-Soviet East German generals who are fed up with being Moscow's lap dogs, and afraid that they will be thrown into the Manchurian meat grinder next, secretly reach out to West Germany and make it known that they are willing to launch a coup if they are promised assistance from the Bundeswehr. Is it beyond imagining that a small but powerful nationalist and/or anti-communist faction within the Bundeswehr wouldn't feel compelled to step in? A secret agreement is reached.

I imagine that the Bundeswehr would already have a few divisions in the field, in response to the Warsaw Pact mobilizations and Soviet troop movements (yes, the latter are mostly moving east, out of Europe, but wouldn't NATO rather play it safe?). Maybe even some reserves would have been called up. With a secret agreement in place, the anti-Soviet DDR generals launch their coup. The Bundeswehr reunification faction orders their units across the border to support their countryman's brave act of national liberation. They don't ask their government for permission. The West German government is taken by surprise and now finds itself in a very difficult position. Either it demands an immediate halt to the invasion (realizing that the generals aren't likely to listen) and gets ready to disavow it and apologize profusely to Moscow, or it goes all in, and throw its support behind reunification-by-force. The invasion becomes a fait accompli.

Yes, this is fantasy, but there is some logic to it. Stranger things have happened IRL.


*And how effective were PACT intelligence agencies' spy networks in the PRC and USSR?

**Paying too close attention, or lending too much credence to Western media reports would probably generate much unwanted attention from state security services.

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[Ursus Maior]

In my opinion, the whole spiel with China can only do one thing: reduce Pact forces in Central Europe, so the war draws out, because it never reaches full intensity and thus a first use of tactical nukes by NATO on German soil. China is a tool to reach that goal of a high-intensity war in Europe that goes nuclear late and does so in Poland, not Germany. China is the place Pact divisions go to be out of the game. Other than that, China is of no use and so not too many details should be put into that. But explaining why and how Pact nations help the USSR is important, yes.

[B]ut wouldn't NATO rather play it safe?

They would. And the only logical way to play it safe is "to not play the game". If NATO, and that means the Bundeswehr especially, twitches too hard or too close to the border, everyone plays a session of "Global Thermonuclear War". So, in order to play, but not to play that game, the situation needs to be muddy, no long planning possible, no cabals, no secret talks for weeks or months. This stuff always gets out, especially in the Eastern Bloc. It needs to happen quickly and everyone needs to try to stop it and thereby make it worse.

[ChalkLine]

Regarding The Sino-Soviet War in the Twilight Era it sort of relies on the world lurching back to 1957. The Soviets were tiring of their empire at this time and the PRC were no longer doing odd Mao-type things over "who gets to be the top guy in the Kommunist Klub" but were instead making wads of cash.

On the whole, Twilight 2000 never acknowledges that Stalin and Mao are dead and so are their systems. The USSR had given up "World Communism" when Stalin chased away Trotsky (and then had him brutally murdered but Trotsky was no saint either) and had thrown up the sop of "Communism In One Nation" which was more or less them owning up to the fact they couldn't pull it off because they knew the reality of this after the Entente let the German army go back and crush the German socialists who they couldn't do without.

To be frank, neither the USSR or the PRC were doing aggression any more, although like any great power if you let your guard down they'd take what they could. Instead they were busy oppressing their own shrinking spheres.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

To be frank, neither the USSR or the PRC were doing aggression any more, although like any great power if you let your guard down they'd take what they could. Instead they were busy oppressing their own shrinking spheres.

I think that I understand the broad generalization that you are trying to make, but I'm not sure that history supports that assessment. Both the USSR and the PRC engaged in numerous acts of aggression after 1957. In fact, they fought a 7-month long undeclared border war against one another in 1969 (and there were limited clashes before, and have been since).

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Yes, it was a neighboring country, but it was non-aligned, not a satellite, and culturally very different.

Both the USSR and the Soviet Union supported proxies in numerous internal and international conflicts around the world between 1957 and 1989. Although it was material support instead of direct military intervention, I would still consider supplying arms, intelligence, and advisory assistance act of aggression. Such was the nature of the Cold War.

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[Olefin]

Keep in mind that Red Dawn came out about the time the game did - with this famous scene - so obviously the idea of a Soviet China War wasnt so far fetched- i.e.

"Matt Eckert: What about Europe?
Col. Andrew Tanner: I guess they figured twice in one century was enough. They're sitting this one out. All except England, and they won't last very long.
Eckert: Well, who is on our side?
Tanner: Six hundred million screamin' Chinamen.
Darryl Bates: Well, last I heard, there were a billion screamin' Chinamen.
Tanner: There were"

[ChalkLine]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I think that I understand the broad generalization that you are trying to make, but I'm not sure that history supports that assessment. Both the USSR and the PRC engaged in numerous acts of aggression after 1957. In fact, they fought a 7-month long undeclared border war against one another in 1969 (and there were limited clashes before, and have been since).

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Yes, it was a neighboring country, but it was non-aligned, not a satellite, and culturally very different.

Both the USSR and the Soviet Union supported proxies in numerous internal and international conflicts around the world between 1957 and 1989. Although it was material support instead of direct military intervention, I would still consider supplying arms, intelligence, and advisory assistance act of aggression. Such was the nature of the Cold War.

-

The Soviets invaded Afghanistan due to the Mujahedeen almost bringing down the government. This was funded by the Carter presidency for just that purpose, and the man that did it - Zbigniew Brzezinski - frankly admitted it in 1998 in the paper "Le Nouvel Observateur".
Quote:
“According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan on Dec. 24, 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise. Indeed, it was on July 3, 1979, that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention.”

Robert M. Gates had already foreshadowed this two years earlier in his book “From the Shadows” (Simon & Schuster, 1996)
Quote:
“The Carter administration began looking at the possibility of covert assistance to the insurgents opposing the pro-Soviet, Marxist government of President Taraki at the beginning of 1979. On March 5, 1979, CIA sent several covert action options relating to Afghanistan to the SCC [Special Coordination Committee].” A meeting of the SCC “was finally held on July 3, 1979, and — almost six months before the Soviets invaded Afghanistan — Jimmy Carter signed the first finding to help the Mujahedin covertly.”

So it wasn't an invasion, that's just the usual Cold War story we were told.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

The Soviets invaded Afghanistan due to the Mujahedeen almost bringing down the government. This was funded by the Carter presidency for just that purpose, and the man that did it - Zbigniew Brzezinski - frankly admitted it in 1998 in the paper "Le Nouvel Observateur".
Quote:
“According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan on Dec. 24, 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise. Indeed, it was on July 3, 1979, that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention.”

Robert M. Gates had already foreshadowed this two years earlier in his book “From the Shadows” (Simon & Schuster, 1996)
Quote:
“The Carter administration began looking at the possibility of covert assistance to the insurgents opposing the pro-Soviet, Marxist government of President Taraki at the beginning of 1979. On March 5, 1979, CIA sent several covert action options relating to Afghanistan to the SCC [Special Coordination Committee].” A meeting of the SCC “was finally held on July 3, 1979, and — almost six months before the Soviets invaded Afghanistan — Jimmy Carter signed the first finding to help the Mujahedin covertly.”

So it wasn't an invasion, that's just the usual Cold War story we were told.

700 Soviet troops including Spetsnaz occupied the government buildings in Kabul, destroyed the Afghan military’s communications and then killed the leader of the pro-Soviet government.

They then invaded with an airborne division, two motor rifle divisions, a motor rifle regiment, an airborne assault brigade and an air corps – with two more motor rifle divisions following up

It was 100% an invasion