OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

It seems that Putin might have backed himself into a corner. Scarily, a cornered dictator is often the most dangerous kind...

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[Targan]

Originally Posted by Raellus

It seems that Putin might have backed himself into a corner. Scarily, a cornered dictator is often the most dangerous kind...

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I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he could be removed by the Russian security services or the military. Personal loyalty only goes so far, particularly if the mood of the Russian populace continues to turn against the current course of action.

[swaghauler]

I'll call it now. IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.

I think we (NATO) should have countries like Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria dust off that old PACT equipment and give it to Ukraine. They have the numbers (240K) to fight but really lack equipment. Giving them the PACT equipment means NATO doesn't have to risk troops training the Ukrainians on new equipment. The US then digs into its HUGE stockpile of surplus and gives back our former PACT NATO members newer equipment to replace their PACT stuff.

For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models).

This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

I'll call it now. IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.

I think we (NATO) should have countries like Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria dust off that old PACT equipment and give it to Ukraine. They have the numbers (240K) to fight but really lack equipment. Giving them the PACT equipment means NATO doesn't have to risk troops training the Ukrainians on new equipment. The US then digs into its HUGE stockpile of surplus and gives back our former PACT NATO members newer equipment to replace their PACT stuff.

For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models).

This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part.

I was also integrating T54/55 western upgrade like Isreal has done. Adding a 105MM, western diesel and powertrain. I also added M60A3's from NATO stocks for reserve fomations.

[Ursus Maior]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.

I'm not sure if Russia could afford going anywhere once they would have one this war. Right now, the Russian ruble has dropped below 1 cent ($ or €) and Russia is not building new smart weapons, since they need imports from the EU for that.

Also, I'd not exactly call Putin old guard KGB, he's basically the last generation of career officers, who made it into a professional career while the USSR still existed. He was never as reliable as the old school leaders of the KGB or USSR used to be. He seems to have self-radicalized during the pandemic, too, so what we're missing from him is reliability and trustworthiness, which existed between top-level officials during the 1970s and 1980s.

For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models).

This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part.

There are basically no Leopard 2A4s left for anyone to buy and no one in NATO would want to. The A4 model is a 30 year old piece of equipment and badly out of date: The gun is too short, armor to low and optics/sensors badly out of date. Buying the latest model, the A7 generation (different iterations available) is expensive, however. The same goes for buying old F-15s. That's not what Poland needs, those birds are old and obsolescent. I think Poland will go for the F-35 as is Germany now after it's surprisingly decisive course change this weekend: There will be a €100 billion fund for the Bundeswehr this year as well as a a true funding North of 2 % BIP in every future year. Currently, that would mean a defense budget approaching or beyond of €80 billion per year for Germany, or about 25 % more than Russia lately spent, but without nuclear forces to pay for as well as no cheap conscripted soldiers (as of today, who knows what 2022 will hold).

However, neither the 250 M1 Abrams nor airplanes will be available for Poland immediately, let alone integrated into the armed force. The same can be said for Bulgaria, who was a mentioned second candidate for a fighter swap scheme with Ukraine.

However, everything not immediately available to Ukraine and accessible without long transition and training periods, won't help Ukrainians win the war. This war is entering a new phase today, as Russia is shelling Kharkiv heavily - one might speak of an early 'Grosny' treatment - and approaching Kiev with a 40 km long column of mechanized forces including logistical elements. The battle for Kyiv will decide the next phase of the war and might decide the whole war indeed, since Russia could install a puppet regime in conquered Kyiv and keep pushing into the rest of Ukraine after that. Should Ukrainian forces loose their C³ facilities and or political leadership sitting in Kyiv, this would be a huge blow to the country's fight to remain independent and sovereign.

That being said, I do not see a way, where this war can be won by Ukraine without considerably more aid by Western nations, including direct support by NATO and/or EU troops. This would up the ante, however, as Russian troops could, and indeed likely would, be fired upon by Western troops and vice versa. As everyone can imagine, this could spill over into Belarus and later NATO partners, such as Poland, the Baltic nations, Romania as well as others, too.

[OmahaJason]

Poland, Belarus, and Slovakia are waiting for Ukrainian pilots to pick up 70 fighter planes, and since those countries still have stocks of Russian-made planes, they should be able to go into action without a ton of training needed.

By this morning, those planes may already be in Ukraine.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by OmahaJason

Poland, Belarus, and Slovakia are waiting for Ukrainian pilots to pick up 70 fighter planes, and since those countries still have stocks of Russian-made planes, they should be able to go into action without a ton of training needed.

By this morning, those planes may already be in Ukraine.

This is one rumor I hate to debunk.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ts-dont-add-up

Hopefully, it's just the number (70) that is incorrect, not the entire story, and Ukraine still ends up getting some replacement combat aircraft from its former Pact neighbors.

Viva the Ghost of Kiev!

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[OmahaJason]

I meant Bulgaria, not Belarus.

I read a seperate report that Slovakian pilots have cross-trained on F16's so they have 20-odd Mig-29's they are not using.

Recently, U.S. defense officials reported that Russia does not have air superiority over Ukraine, which suggests they are holding back, or have suffered outsized losses. In any case, there is little time to waste, because a no-fly zone is a non-starter.

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Ursus Maior

I'm not sure if Russia could afford going anywhere once they would have one this war. Right now, the Russian ruble has dropped below 1 cent ($ or €) and Russia is not building new smart weapons, since they need imports from the EU for that.

Also, I'd not exactly call Putin old guard KGB, he's basically the last generation of career officers, who made it into a professional career while the USSR still existed. He was never as reliable as the old school leaders of the KGB or USSR used to be. He seems to have self-radicalized during the pandemic, too, so what we're missing from him is reliability and trustworthiness, which existed between top-level officials during the 1970s and 1980s.

The flaw in that logic is that oil is traded in DOLLARS. While the PEOPLE of Russia are suffering as a result of sanctions, Putin (and his oil companies) is dealing in US dollars because Biden hasn't even enacted the oil embargo against Russia yet. And people accused Trump of being a Russian puppet. I can say in Biden's defense that he probably doesn't understand what's really happening. My father had dementia the last year before he died and his confusion would be extreme on occasion. Joe reminds me more of my father every day.

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Ursus Maior

There are basically no Leopard 2A4s left for anyone to buy and no one in NATO would want to. The A4 model is a 30 year old piece of equipment and badly out of date: The gun is too short, armor to low and optics/sensors badly out of date. Buying the latest model, the A7 generation (different iterations available) is expensive, however. The same goes for buying old F-15s. That's not what Poland needs, those birds are old and obsolescent. I think Poland will go for the F-35 as is Germany now after it's surprisingly decisive course change this weekend: There will be a €100 billion fund for the Bundeswehr this year as well as a a true funding North of 2 % BIP in every future year. Currently, that would mean a defense budget approaching or beyond of €80 billion per year for Germany, or about 25 % more than Russia lately spent, but without nuclear forces to pay for as well as no cheap conscripted soldiers (as of today, who knows what 2022 will hold).

However, neither the 250 M1 Abrams nor airplanes will be available for Poland immediately, let alone integrated into the armed force. The same can be said for Bulgaria, who was a mentioned second candidate for a fighter swap scheme with Ukraine.

That's not true either. Germany HAS A4s and A5s in their mothballs inventory and Poland was trying to buy them but Germany is saving money by upgrading the older A4s & A5s to the new A7 standard. This resulted in Poland not being able to buy the cheaper A4s and A5s (of which she has over 100 each) so she started upgrading them with Rhinemetal's help. But the US approved the sale of 250 M1A3 SEP tanks in January. So Poland now plans on buying up to 500 M1A3 SEPS which cost almost the same as upgrading their Leopard 2s to the new PL standard they developed with Rhinemetal. The suggested plan with Ukraine was to have Poland give them her 338 T72s and her 232 Twardy tanks and the US will replace those tanks with surplus M1A2 (not the new SEPs, just surplus A2s). The rumor was we would give Poland 350 M1s and she would ship her PACT tanks to the border.

The other deal (which may yet go through) has Poland giving Ukraine 24 MIG 29s and we immediately transfer 24 F15 Strike Eagles to Poland (from the UK) to complement her F35s. The F15 Strike Eagle is NOT obsolete and the US still spends more than 100 million per plane to buy newer Strike Eagles even now. They are important to the new "distributed lethality" concept that the Navy introduced and the Air Force seems to have adopted as well. The F35 flies ahead with 2 AA missiles (for self-defense), 2 anti-radar missiles, and 2 air-to-ground missiles (or 4 if Hellfires are carried instead of Mavericks) on board. It then acts as a scout/spotter for the F15s (which carry 12 missiles each) who act as "missile trucks," firing their missiles which are then directed to the target by the F35. This high-low system is the Air Force's new doctrine.

The idea for giving the indicated systems to Ukraine is that they won't need to be trained on those systems because they already use them. The US would then bring in the new systems to the NATO members as "payment" for their sacrifice of equipment while simultaneously upgrading their capabilities so we don't have to keep our troops in harm's way.

I disagree with your assessment of Ukraine's chances because she currently has more than 240K people "under arms." That's quantitatively a match for Russia's (mostly conscripted) forces... especially IF this turns into an Insurgency. Putin cannot simply burn Kyiv to the ground as he did with Grozny in 2000. That will only harden the Ukrainian's hearts and turn the West farther against him.

What Ukraine NEEDS is arms, ammo, and food... which is flowing in now. I still believe if the Ukrainians can hold on for 10 days, they can really hurt Putin's chances of victory. And I'm basing that on OUR (the US Army's) logistics consumption on the offensive. The Russians have a smaller "logistics tail" than we do and are using far more rockets and artillery than we would. Contrary to popular opinion, morale and logistics win wars [at the strategic level], not just firepower.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

What Ukraine NEEDS is arms, ammo, and food... which is flowing in now. I still believe if the Ukrainians can hold on for 10 days, they can really hurt Putin's chances of victory. And I'm basing that on OUR (the US Army's) logistics consumption on the offensive. The Russians have a smaller "logistics tail" than we do and are using far more rockets and artillery than we would. Contrary to popular opinion, morale and logistics win wars [at the strategic level], not just firepower.

That's been my assessment in recent days too. The Russians have struggled with their logistics only a couple of days into this. If they can't achieve at least some of their objectives by day 10, they're going to be in a lot of trouble. Somebody in the Russian government or security services may even decide to put a stop to this with the application of some 9mm medicine.

[Mahatatain]

Is anyone else surprised by how poor the Russian troops have performed? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that they are doing badly, but I thought that even without their heavy artillery they would make quicker progress than they have. Has the average Russian infantryman been proved to not be as capable as we expected them to be?

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by Targan

I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he could be removed by the Russian security services or the military. Personal loyalty only goes so far, particularly if the mood of the Russian populace continues to turn against the current course of action.

In the old USSR, leaders "got the flu", Soviet flu came in two strains, 9X18MM or cyanide.