OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[swaghauler]

Here's Perun's take on mobilization. As an Australian logistics expert (I find that just a little ironic), he really does put the Russian mobilization into perspective. I love all the Australians in the comments talking about annexing NZ too. I didn't know the Aussies were so into planning on "absorbing" the Kiwis.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6hXnQNU8ANo&feature=

Swag

[swaghauler]

As many of you know, I have always espoused a "come as you are" war for Twilight2000 based upon a much shorter time frame. As we enter the 6th month of the War In Ukraine, it looks like my assumptions about material expenditure and the worldwide adoption of "Lean Manufacturing" are coming true. Russia is now issuing T62s to her new MRDs. Here's an attempt to count Russia's remaining tank reserves.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0&feature=

Swag

[swaghauler]

Here's Laserpig's take on Russia's tank forces.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=kT_ljkO3adY&feature=

I'd also recommend his video on the Moskva's sinking as it has some seriously scary details about Moskva's condition, including the lack of firefighting gear and the fact that her SAM systems DIDN'T WORK and the Russians KNEW IT!

Swag.

[bash]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

I'd also recommend his video on the Moskva's sinking as it has some seriously scary details about Moskva's condition, including the lack of firefighting gear and the fact that her SAM systems DIDN'T WORK and the Russians KNEW IT!

I guess to be fair to the Russians, their chosen method for firefighting on the Moskva did eventually put out the fires.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by bash

I guess to be fair to the Russians, their chosen method for firefighting on the Moskva did eventually put out the fires.

Did they put out the fires by letting them burn to the waterline?

[bash]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Did they put out the fires by letting them burn to the waterline?

They just promoted the cruiser to single-use submarine. All the fires went out. The same tactic also solved their air defense problem. Let's see a Bayraktar target the Moskva now!

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

As many of you know, I have always espoused a "come as you are" war for Twilight2000 based upon a much shorter time frame. As we enter the 6th month of the War In Ukraine, it looks like my assumptions about material expenditure and the worldwide adoption of "Lean Manufacturing" are coming true. Russia is now issuing T62s to her new MRDs. Here's an attempt to count Russia's remaining tank reserves.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0&feature=

Swag

I'm still a little surprised they haven't tried to swap T-62s for the newer tanks of their puppets in Donetsk and Luhansk. The T-62 has a different caliber gun from everything else Russia uses, complicating logistics that Russia already has problems with, and with no autoloader it needs an extra crewmember, exacerbating Russia's manpower shortages.

Even Ukraine hasn't reactivated their ~300 T-62, sticking to the T-64, T-72, and T-80/84 from domestic stocks (and donations), along with captured T-90 and donated PT-91 and M-55S.

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Vespers War

I'm still a little surprised they haven't tried to swap T-62s for the newer tanks of their puppets in Donetsk and Luhansk. The T-62 has a different caliber gun from everything else Russia uses, complicating logistics that Russia already has problems with, and with no autoloader it needs an extra crewmember, exacerbating Russia's manpower shortages.

Even Ukraine hasn't reactivated their ~300 T-62, sticking to the T-64, T-72, and T-80/84 from domestic stocks (and donations), along with captured T-90 and donated PT-91 and M-55S.

As far as I've seen in the news, both Republics are using T62s, just like Syria has been getting. In fact, when I first saw them (T62s), I thought they were DPR tanks until they showed up with Russian units that appeared in late August. I do have a theory though. I'm wondering if they aren't using T62s because they bought ammo from North Korea. NK has only a handful of T72s with the 125mm, but they have THOUSANDS of T62s. Maybe Russia is "buying time" with untrained conscripts and second-line tanks until they can get their T72s refurbished and rearmed?

Why this theory? Multiple sources inside Russia as well as open source video intel suggest that up to 1,000 T72s have been pulled from mothballs and are being "reconditioned" by Russia at her tank factories. T90 production has stopped (probably because of sanctions). If sources are correct, Russia has lost HALF of its tank force in Ukraine to everything from casualties to simple breakdowns. Heavy logistical supply is pretty suspect according to POWs who have been interviewed and many tanks are deploying with less than HALF of a combat load of ammo. Could Russia rebuild its force structure? I don't see why not. There are something like 3k "deadlined" T72s and another 3k that are basically scrap at this point. Using the scrap to relife the deadlined units seems like a no-brainer to me.

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

As far as I've seen in the news, both Republics are using T62s, just like Syria has been getting. In fact, when I first saw them (T62s), I thought they were DPR tanks until they showed up with Russian units that appeared in late August. I do have a theory though. I'm wondering if they aren't using T62s because they bought ammo from North Korea. NK has only a handful of T72s with the 125mm, but they have THOUSANDS of T62s. Maybe Russia is "buying time" with untrained conscripts and second-line tanks until they can get their T72s refurbished and rearmed?

Why this theory? Multiple sources inside Russia as well as open source video intel suggest that up to 1,000 T72s have been pulled from mothballs and are being "reconditioned" by Russia at her tank factories. T90 production has stopped (probably because of sanctions). If sources are correct, Russia has lost HALF of its tank force in Ukraine to everything from casualties to simple breakdowns. Heavy logistical supply is pretty suspect according to POWs who have been interviewed and many tanks are deploying with less than HALF of a combat load of ammo. Could Russia rebuild its force structure? I don't see why not. There are something like 3k "deadlined" T72s and another 3k that are basically scrap at this point. Using the scrap to relife the deadlined units seems like a no-brainer to me.

That makes some sense, although North Korea's more split on ammunition caliber than a raw reading of their tank numbers would suggest. They've upgraded some T-62 to the 125mm (Chonma-ho V), while the Pokpung-ho has both 115mm and 125mm variants and the Songun-ho is 125mm only.

For the Ukrainian T-62, an upgrade to 120mm might be more effective overall. Egypt did that with the RO-120 Mark III, which uses an FSUE-developed 120mm gun that's compatible with NATO standard ammunition. A decent modern ERA would probably also be helpful, given that the T-62 is modestly armored at best and only Kontakt-1 was adapted to it. The M-55S is the only thing they've received that uses the 105mm round, and I doubt it will remain in Ukrainian service for long, given its obsolescence in other tank forces. With only 28 vehicles using that caliber, there's not much momentum in its favor.

[bash]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

Why this theory? Multiple sources inside Russia as well as open source video intel suggest that up to 1,000 T72s have been pulled from mothballs and are being "reconditioned" by Russia at her tank factories. T90 production has stopped (probably because of sanctions). If sources are correct, Russia has lost HALF of its tank force in Ukraine to everything from casualties to simple breakdowns. Heavy logistical supply is pretty suspect according to POWs who have been interviewed and many tanks are deploying with less than HALF of a combat load of ammo. Could Russia rebuild its force structure? I don't see why not. There are something like 3k "deadlined" T72s and another 3k that are basically scrap at this point. Using the scrap to relife the deadlined units seems like a no-brainer to me.

I don't doubt Russia will try refurbishing their deadlines T-72s but it will be very interesting to see how well they actually perform. Between sanctions and thirty years of grift I'd bet those warehoused T-72s are going to lack optics, radios, and basically anything resembling modern kit. Combined with their piss poor combined arms it seems like they'll just be fodder for St. Javelin.

Russia has lost thousands of tanks that were supposedly mission capable and used by supposedly capable units. More tanks aren't going to do much good if they're used as poorly as all the ones they've already lost. We're however many months into their three day special operation and Russia still hasn't figured out pallets, fork lifts, or combined arms.

I hope Ukraine's booster club keeps up with the ATGMs, they've done a great job blunting Russia's tank advantage thus far.

[Heffe]

For T-62s, a Javelin seems like a bit of an overkill. Just drop some 40mm HEDP on the top of the turret from a tiny quad-drone and call it a day.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Heffe

For T-62s, a Javelin seems like a bit of an overkill. Just drop some 40mm HEDP on the top of the turret from a tiny quad-drone and call it a day.

Especially early on in the war, I used to get rather frustrated with the "wasting" of Javelins on BTRs, BMPs, and other light AFVs. I've even see video of them being used against soft-skinned trucks. Seems like a misuse of a very expensive weapon system to me- but that's easy for me to say from behind the screen of a my very distant-from-the-battlefield, very safe home computer. As long as we can keep making/shipping Ukraine said Javelins, whatevs, right?

-

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Vespers War

I'm still a little surprised they haven't tried to swap T-62s for the newer tanks of their puppets in Donetsk and Luhansk. The T-62 has a different caliber gun from everything else Russia uses, complicating logistics that Russia already has problems with, and with no autoloader it needs an extra crewmember, exacerbating Russia's manpower shortages.

Even Ukraine hasn't reactivated their ~300 T-62, sticking to the T-64, T-72, and T-80/84 from domestic stocks (and donations), along with captured T-90 and donated PT-91 and M-55S.

I heard that there was some discussion about pulling the 300+ T62s out of Ukraine and rebarreling them with the 105mm and new fire controls. The T55S tanks are already equipped with NATO 105mm cannon, so that would allow new units to transition to NATO tank ammo without having to pull out and retrain tank crews on NATO equipment. Ukraine really wants Leopard II though.