Taiwan invasion model

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Good find. I can see how this would be quite helpful to anyone constructing a 4e timeline involving a PRC invasion of Taiwan.

What's alarming is how much the PRC has increased its military capabilities since this report was written almost a quarter century ago. As we've seen in Ukraine, warfare has changed too. And one could argue that Taiwan's military has failed to keep pace with its mainland cousins in the interim. I imagine that all of this would change the calculus if this report were written today.

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I think it helps provide some much needed context to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ales_to_Taiwan

It's clear that US arms sales to Taiwan jumped dramatically in the late 90s, and have been fairly hot ever since. The computer models in the report indicate the power balance shifting dramatically toward Taiwan when a US carrier or two enter the mix. It also really helps paint the picture on China picking up/building out their own carrier fleet and their heavy focus on the PLAN over the past 20 years.