OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[kcdusk]

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by kcdusk

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

I would generally agree except that the Ukrainians are going to dump those cluster munitions into Russian defensive lines that are already filled with unmarked minefields and UXO... that land is already going to have to be cleared before civilians enter it, whether or not there are unexploded bomblets in it.

On a practical side, DP-ICM are much more effective than HE rounds. Given that the supply of howitzer barrels is running out in the West, the cluster munitions allow the Ukrainians to keep their artillery going longer before their guns are shot out.

Just my opinion...

[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by chico20854

I would generally agree except that the Ukrainians are going to dump those cluster munitions into Russian defensive lines that are already filled with unmarked minefields and UXO... that land is already going to have to be cleared before civilians enter it, whether or not there are unexploded bomblets in it.

I have a professional contact who's worked with demining and UXO teams in Syria. His analysis was much the same - any use of cluster munitions by Ukraine will be a minor incremental addition to the work already ahead.

- C.

[kcdusk]

I was thinking the long view success would be not to use them, but happy to defer to those more in the know. Its still a case of rock and hard place!

[Targan]

Ukrainian pilots will start training on the F-16 in Romania next month. Come March next year when F-16s tear into the Russian Air Force, the Russians are going to need to issue a whole lot of brown trousers.

[Ursus Maior]

The bridge over the Kerch has come under attack again. Currently, automotive traffic in both directions is down, due to the bridge having collapsed. The railtracks seem to hold, so far.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...or-2023-07-17/

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1680796880551178240

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Ursus Maior

The bridge over the Kerch has come under attack again. Currently, automotive traffic in both directions is down, due to the bridge having collapsed. The railtracks seem to hold, so far.

When I first saw the headlines, I assumed that something like Storm Shadow ASMs had been used to strike the bridge but apparently it was drone boats.

In other news, Ukrainian intel reports a build up of Russian forces (100k troops, hundreds of AFVs) near Kharkiv. This could be bad for Ukraine, as it threatens the flanks of some of their current offensive operations, and it will probably require the UAF to shift forces earmarked for, or already committed to said in order to meet the new threat. On the other hand, it might a positive for the Ukrainians as it will get a substantial number of Russians out of their fixed defensive positions and out into the open (where US cluster munitions could have a really big impact). At this point, I would bet on the Ukrainians to gain the upper hand in maneuver warfare.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...p-near-kharkiv

WARNING:
If you scroll down through the article, there are links to two video clips of Anti-Russian Chechen fighters, allegedly operating in Belgorod Oblast, ambushing a lone Russian military truck. They blur out the gore (thank goodness), but it doesn't leave a whole lot to the imagination, and some viewers may find it disturbing. I only mention it here because every T2k game I've ever been involved with (as player, Ref, reader, writer, etc.) has featured at least one ambush of a "Russian" convoy of some sort.

-

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by kcdusk

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

I felt that way for a bit as well, but I have to keep reminding myself that Russia's aims still haven't shifted from "total subjugation and absorption of Ukraine and her people". The way I see it, Ukraine has to weigh the risk of future injury to her population, vs. Ukraine simply not existing as an independent, sovereign nation. On top of that, Russia has shown numerous times so far in the war that they're more than happy to waste Ukrainian civilians themselves, and no doubt Ukraine is already going to have to spend many year de-mining their country after this is all over.

The ugliest of calculus here breaks down to "How many lives will be lost to future UXO explosions vs. how many lives might be saved by speeding up the end of this conflict through the use of cluster munitions?"