OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[kcdusk]

I was thinking the long view success would be not to use them, but happy to defer to those more in the know. Its still a case of rock and hard place!

[Targan]

Ukrainian pilots will start training on the F-16 in Romania next month. Come March next year when F-16s tear into the Russian Air Force, the Russians are going to need to issue a whole lot of brown trousers.

[Ursus Maior]

The bridge over the Kerch has come under attack again. Currently, automotive traffic in both directions is down, due to the bridge having collapsed. The railtracks seem to hold, so far.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...or-2023-07-17/

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1680796880551178240

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Ursus Maior

The bridge over the Kerch has come under attack again. Currently, automotive traffic in both directions is down, due to the bridge having collapsed. The railtracks seem to hold, so far.

When I first saw the headlines, I assumed that something like Storm Shadow ASMs had been used to strike the bridge but apparently it was drone boats.

In other news, Ukrainian intel reports a build up of Russian forces (100k troops, hundreds of AFVs) near Kharkiv. This could be bad for Ukraine, as it threatens the flanks of some of their current offensive operations, and it will probably require the UAF to shift forces earmarked for, or already committed to said in order to meet the new threat. On the other hand, it might a positive for the Ukrainians as it will get a substantial number of Russians out of their fixed defensive positions and out into the open (where US cluster munitions could have a really big impact). At this point, I would bet on the Ukrainians to gain the upper hand in maneuver warfare.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...p-near-kharkiv

WARNING:
If you scroll down through the article, there are links to two video clips of Anti-Russian Chechen fighters, allegedly operating in Belgorod Oblast, ambushing a lone Russian military truck. They blur out the gore (thank goodness), but it doesn't leave a whole lot to the imagination, and some viewers may find it disturbing. I only mention it here because every T2k game I've ever been involved with (as player, Ref, reader, writer, etc.) has featured at least one ambush of a "Russian" convoy of some sort.

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[Homer]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I only mention it here because every T2k game I've ever been involved with (as player, Ref, reader, writer, etc.) has featured at least one ambush of a "Russian" convoy of some sort.

Good single vehicle pickoff. There’s some extended footage of the patrol moving up, presumabley before passage of lines or leaving an harbor area, and movement to the ambush position. I got a rough count of 16, with 2x PKM, an RPG launcher, a radio, and a three or more guys with LAW or RPG18/22 type weapons. Looks like an overnight at least based on the assault packs everyone was carrying and the foam mats, etc.. Understandably not a lot of detail on establishing the ambush, but it did show the go-pro guy prepping a LAW; I think he set it down again when they saw the truck and ended up engaging with his rifle. Lots of fire on the truck, but it looks like it made it some ways through the kill zone before it was stopped.

For all the good of accomplishing the presumptive mission, if your PCs walk the roads, bunch up and lollygaggle when “assaulting” across the kill zone of their linear ambush, fail to secure the far side before they start searching, or aren’t moving expeditiously back to the ORP it’s a good opportunity for the ambushed to rally, counterattack, and teach them a lesson. It did look like there was a man on the road able to look down the curve in the direction the truck came from. Not sure if that was PKM man, LAW guy, or if the flank security man/element had collapsed already. If they don’t have flank security, anything can roll up on them.

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Raellus

When I first saw the headlines, I assumed that something like Storm Shadow ASMs had been used to strike the bridge but apparently it was drone boats.

In other news, Ukrainian intel reports a build up of Russian forces (100k troops, hundreds of AFVs) near Kharkiv. This could be bad for Ukraine, as it threatens the flanks of some of their current offensive operations, and it will probably require the UAF to shift forces earmarked for, or already committed to said in order to meet the new threat. On the other hand, it might a positive for the Ukrainians as it will get a substantial number of Russians out of their fixed defensive positions and out into the open (where US cluster munitions could have a really big impact). At this point, I would bet on the Ukrainians to gain the upper hand in maneuver warfare.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...p-near-kharkiv

WARNING:
If you scroll down through the article, there are links to two video clips of Anti-Russian Chechen fighters, allegedly operating in Belgorod Oblast, ambushing a lone Russian military truck. They blur out the gore (thank goodness), but it doesn't leave a whole lot to the imagination, and some viewers may find it disturbing. I only mention it here because every T2k game I've ever been involved with (as player, Ref, reader, writer, etc.) has featured at least one ambush of a "Russian" convoy of some sort.
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Nice link and an interesting read.

ISW has reported on the build up (though they haven't cited a number regarding personnel AFAIK), and have reported that at least some of it is penal battalions that don't have the experience, morale, or the cohesion to actually pull anything off other than light skirmishes. No matter the case, surely Russia is eager to try to regain the initiative here. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-july-17-2023

[Raellus]

This sobering, first-hand assessment of the Ukrainian military pulls no punches.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...from-the-front

The short of it is that the Ukrainian military currently isn't as good as their propaganda makes it out to be- it's just better than the Russians (and not by a very wide margin, at that).

The author of the report gives 16 reasons why the UAF's counteroffensive has not manage to achieve a major breakthrough, including, perhaps the most significant,

"2.) Ukrainian forces have still not mastered combined arms operations at scale. Operations are more sequential than synchronized. This creates various problems for the offense and IMO [in my opinion] is the main cause for slow progress."

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[bash]

That's a good read. I think the multiple mentions of minefields teases a lede that's a little buried. Whatever other problems the Ukrainians have, the Russians basically mined the whole front. Even in the best cases it makes maneuver difficult and all advances will be measured in meters at a time. Artillery can only make so much progress if infantry can't take and hold the ground artillery just cleared out.

Massed assaults are constrained because minefields limit mobility and even a Mobik can figure out how to aim where the enemy if forced to bunch up.

I think one of the biggest lessons is air power has been a game changer in the century since it debuted. If you don't have air superiority, including clearing out ADA, you're stuck on the ground getting bombed to shit. Air superiority alone won't win a war but if you're going to "win" a war you need to at some point enjoy air superiority.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Raellus

This sobering, first-hand assessment of the Ukrainian military pulls no punches.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...from-the-front

The short of it is that the Ukrainian military currently isn't as good as their propaganda makes it out to be- it's just better than the Russians (and not by a very wide margin, at that).

The author of the report gives 16 reasons why the UAF's counteroffensive has not manage to achieve a major breakthrough, including, perhaps the most significant,

"2.) Ukrainian forces have still not mastered combined arms operations at scale. Operations are more sequential than synchronized. This creates various problems for the offense and IMO [in my opinion] is the main cause for slow progress."

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I believe it. It took the Red Army a good three years to master combined arms during World War II and even with massive Lend-Lease aid there were still logistical problems sustaining offensives. The Ukrainian learning curve will probably be much quicker but with a terrible cost in casualties.

There is a greater problem here in my view. To really make Putin or Russia pay attention, a defender would need to inflict the same levels of casualties as the Finns 1939-40. Something on the order of 10:1 or thereabouts. The UAF have fought valiantly and won deserved admiration from much of the world. However there is simply not enough damage being done to the Russian military.

We don't have a clear picture of casualties on either side to be fair-but it's nowhere near the level to make the Russians come to the table or back off. Bear in mind I'm not criticizing the UAF nor am I in a position to criticize them.
Just my 2 cents.