OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Targan]

There has not been a declaration of war made by Russia, so any threat to target civilian shipping in the Black Sea is straight-up illegal. And I've said right from the start, Russia isn't going to launch nukes (not unless NATO tanks roll across the Russian border). Putin may be an A-grade dickhead and a megalomaniacal narcissist, but his generals aren't suicidal.

NATO needs to grow some nuts and (assuming Turkey didn't close the straits) escort grain freighters right through to Ukrainian ports. Dare the Russians to do anything about it.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Targan

There has not been a declaration of war made by Russia, so any threat to target civilian shipping in the Black Sea is straight-up illegal. And I've said right from the start, Russia isn't going to launch nukes (not unless NATO tanks roll across the Russian border). Putin may be an A-grade dickhead and a megalomaniacal narcissist, but his generals aren't suicidal.

NATO needs to grow some nuts and (assuming Turkey didn't close the straits) escort grain freighters right through to Ukrainian ports. Dare the Russians to do anything about it.

It's an interesting thought and brings back images of Kuwaiti tankers being escorted during the Iran-Iraq War. I believe there there is less than a 10% chance of NATO implementing such a program even for the best of purposes-bringing grain to a hungry world.

NATO's navies have suffered tremendously from Post-Cold War penury-our old Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates would have been ideal for this role. They are long gone. NATO, I suspect, would be loathe to strip STANAVFORATLANT to send them into the Black Sea on escort missions even if the political will existed.

I doubt Turkey would close the Straits-although I do see Erdogan notifying NATO that in the event of an attack on NATO forces as a result of their actions in the Black Sea-Turkey would sit it out.

Romania and Bulgaria would probably not risk their limited assets in such an operation leaving the other much larger maritime powers to try to send their slender resources into the Black Sea-which again, I don't think will happen. We'll see. Again, just my 2 cents worth.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

NATO's navies have suffered tremendously from Post-Cold War penury-our old Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates would have been ideal for this role. They are long gone. NATO, I suspect, would be loathe to strip STANAVFORATLANT to send them into the Black Sea on escort missions even if the political will existed.

I doubt Turkey would close the Straits-although I do see Erdogan notifying NATO that in the event of an attack on NATO forces as a result of their actions in the Black Sea-Turkey would sit it out.

I don't disagree with you but it's interesting to note that Turkey is still a user of the OHP class frigate. Their modernized version is known as the G-Class frigate and there are 8 of them in service with the Turkish navy.

-

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I don't disagree with you but it's interesting to note that Turkey is still a user of the OHP class frigate. Their modernized version is known as the G-Class frigate and there are 8 of them in service with the Turkish navy.

-

That's true-Poland/ORP has a couple as well now I think? Australia built several as well if my memory serves me correctly.

[Raellus]

Russian minefields have contributed greatly to slowing Ukraine's offensive operations this summer. From the articles I've read, it sounds like the UAF's main tactics to overcome the obstacle presented by AT mines is to rely on mine roller-equipped tanks or ARVs, or MICLICs, to clear lanes through minefields during an assault. According to a Ukrainian tanker interviewed by the BBC, a mine roller can usually handle, one at a time, up to four mines before it needs replacement, However, knowing this, the Russians have adapted by stacking multiple AT mines, thereby destroying rollers with one massive explosion. The Ukrainians are losing AFVs to mines at a pretty high rate- even their more advanced, better protected Western models- and have seemingly given up on attempts at a major mechanized breakthrough. They've largely reverted to smaller, more incremental (and slower) attacks led by relatively small formations of infantry. The Russians have even started to mine their own trench lines and remotely detonate them once they've been taken and occupied by UAF forces.

What I haven't read a single mention of in this current conflict is the UAF using combat engineers to prep attack lanes through mine belts by moving across minefields on foot, probing for AT mines, and removing them manually prior to a planned assault. I'm both surprised and not surprised by this. I'm not surprised because this procedure is slow and very dangerous to the mine clearing teams. Minefields, to be truly effective, need to be observed by the defending force and covered by fires (direct and indirect) to prevent what I just described. It sounds like, most of the time, the Russians are employing tactics that increase the effectiveness of their minefields.

On the other hand, I am surprised because pretty much every book I've read about major WW2 ground offensives describe the attacker- both Axis and Allied- using the tactic of manual mine detection/removal (almost always at night) in the lead up to a big assault. This is especially true of the Eastern Front. In quite a few cases, this tactic was very successful in getting the attacking force through the first line of defense with much fewer tank losses to AT mines.

I'm not advocating that UAF troops risk their lives by adopting this dangerous but potentially successful tactic. It's easy for me to sit here and suggest they give it a try. I'm just wondering why, AFAIK, they haven't. I suppose that improvements in and the proliferation of NODs and battlefield surveillance tech in the current era make manual demining in a combat area a lot more dangerous than it already was in earlier wars.

Anyway, that was a bit rambling. I just wanted to share my thoughts and wonder if any of you have wondered the same thing or read/seen anything illuminating on the topic.

-

[Ursus Maior]

The difference between infantry clearing mines at night in 1943 and 2023 ist night optics and drones, I'd say. Also, clearing mines by hand in darkness is extremely dangerous and costly in terms of personnel.

[Raellus]

Here's the BBC piece that I referenced in the OP.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66306150

And another piece, in which a UAF sapper is interviewed. This one focuses a bit more on the threat of anti-personnel mines and the challenges faced by shorthanded Ukrainian sappers. The last line of the article offers a tantalizing, if vague, hint of new, more effective tactics to defeat Russian minefields.

"We are learning to improvise and to invent ways to make quick, safe paths through the minefields. But we are fighting a very vicious enemy," [the Ukrainian sapper] said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66080652

I'm curious to learn what those innovative tactics are.

-