OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

It's being reported that Ukraine plans to base a portion of its new F-16 fighters outside of Ukraine. A few reasons have been sited for this: to maintain an active training cadre on the type, to provide a source of replacement aircraft and parts, and, probably most importantly, to maintain a reserve outside the reach of the Russians (as Putin has already put a bounty on Ukrainian Falcons). Apparently, Putin has responded publicly to Ukraine's intentions by stating that Ukrainian F-16s outside of Ukraine are legitimate military targets, and that the Russians reserve the right to target and attack them. This may just be bluster, but it raises an interesting possibility: if Putin follows through on the threat and orders an attack of some sort on Ukrainian Falcons based in a NATO country, does this trigger Article 5 of the NATO charter? If so, would NATO respond with force? Worst case scenario, this is yet another way that WWIII could start in our day.

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[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Raellus

It's being reported that Ukraine plans to base a portion of its new F-16 fighters outside of Ukraine. A few reasons have been sited for this: to maintain an active training cadre on the type, to provide a source of replacement aircraft and parts, and, probably most importantly, to maintain a reserve outside the reach of the Russians (as Putin has already put a bounty on Ukrainian Falcons). Apparently, Putin has responded publicly to Ukraine's intentions by stating that Ukrainian F-16s outside of Ukraine are legitimate military targets, and that the Russians reserve the right to target and attack them. This may just be bluster, but it raises an interesting possibility: if Putin follows through on the threat and orders an attack of some sort on Ukrainian Falcons based in a NATO country, does this trigger Article 5 of the NATO charter? If so, would NATO respond with force? Worst case scenario, this is yet another way that WWIII could start in our day.

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Probably bluster in my view but I don't put anything past Bad Vlad at this point. What, if anything, Brussels would do IF there were to be a strike on Ukrainian F-16's based in a NATO country? Anything goes, with my guess leaning toward either a modest proportional response or a finger wagging warning. Just my .02.

[Vespers War]

The Dutch have already delivered 8 Falcons to Romania for pan-European training (including Ukrainian pilots), which is supposed to increase to 12-18 aircraft on top of the 24 they're delivering to Ukraine for combat use. The Romanian F-16s are not Ukrainian, so despite being used to train Ukrainian pilots a strike on Romania would seem to be a more extreme escalation than I'd expect from Russia.

There has been talk of some of the 24 donated to Ukraine being retained in Denmark for pilot training, since right now Ukraine has more pilots awaiting training than there are available slots to train them. Those would match Putin's threat more closely, but Russia striking Denmark seems unlikely to me. I'll admit that Kremlinology is always a bit iffy, but this feels like an empty threat intended to make Denmark rethink their training program rather than the sort of thing that leads to an actual attack. At most I would expect sabotage efforts, rather than an overt military strike.

[Targan]

Putin is all talk. He will never order Russian forces to directly strike a NATO member while the alliance remains strong. That may change if something dramatic in NATO occurs, such as the US walking away from the alliance. Under such circumstances I could imagine Putin trying something just to see what the reaction would be. But for now I think his worst nightmare would be a full-scale NATO intervention in Ukraine. If that happened I'd expect his adult diaper delivery schedule to dramatically increase.

[Raellus]

WTF?

https://www.twz.com/news-features/uk...ed-territories

Is this going to encourage or discourage South Korea from providing lethal military aid to Ukraine?

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[kato13]

I had very little doubt Korea was going to step up on tech deliveries and now with DPRK committing to send troops within a month, I have close to zero doubts.

I heard someone say Putin at the moment is reactionary and not strategic. Pissing off the worlds 5th largest arms exporter and the largest generator of western artillery ammunition (with remaining untapped capacity), seems to fit that assessment.

Korea now has the opportunity to test their weapons and kill North Korean soldiers 4000 miles from their borders.

[Vespers War]

Even if South Korea decides to stick to "defensive" weaponry, they license-built over a thousand Vulcan Air Defense Systems. A couple hundred were vehicle-mounted as the K263, based on the K200 IFV, and around a thousand were left as towed anti-aircraft guns. The K263 uses the same turret as the M163 that the Americans built based on the M113.

Any that South Korea isn't planning on using for their own SHORAD needs would likely be very welcome in Ukraine as supplements to existing systems, and they've been largely replaced by 35mm Skyguard systems, both towed and mounted on the K30 Biho. The Houthi in Yemen have fitted VADS into the beds of pickup trucks, and I have to imagine Ukraine would be capable of doing the same.

On the missile side of air defense, Korea is replacing a combination of Stinger, Igla, Mistral, and (UK) Javelin systems with the indigenous K-SAM, so any or all of those could be considered for transfer. I don't think they have enough of their larger SAM systems to consider transferring any of those.

If they're willing to provide offensive weapons, the K9 Thunder is probably too new, but it's replacing around a thousand of the K55/K55A1 self-propelled artillery system, which is based on the M109A2 Paladin. There are also around 100 of the K136 130/131mm MLRS in reserves that were originally going to be sold to the Philippines, but they backed out of the deal last year. Moving away from vehicles, there are a couple hundred ATACMS missiles that Korea might or might not be willing to send, along with a couple hundred obsolete Hyunmoo-1 short-ranged ballistic missiles that have allegedly been kept in reserve (which have around the same range as ATACMS, so they wouldn't be an escalation with regards to how far into Russia Ukraine could strike).

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Originally Posted by Raellus

WTF?

https://www.twz.com/news-features/uk...ed-territories

Is this going to encourage or discourage South Korea from providing lethal military aid to Ukraine?

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I would not be surprised if some of them fly the coop if they have no family or ties to home.

[kato13]

Again history coming really close to repeating itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...strikes-2024-7

Russia may resort to an old World War II tactic that had a key role in the D-Day landings to repel Ukrainian drone attacks -- (Barrage Balloons)

[TGirl Kelley]

Originally Posted by kato13

Again history coming really close to repeating itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...strikes-2024-7

Russia may resort to an old World War II tactic that had a key role in the D-Day landings to repel Ukrainian drone attacks -- (Barrage Balloons)

As maneuverable as drones are and with the skill of Ukraine operators I don't foresee this being very effective.