OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[kato13]

Again history coming really close to repeating itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...strikes-2024-7

Russia may resort to an old World War II tactic that had a key role in the D-Day landings to repel Ukrainian drone attacks -- (Barrage Balloons)

[TGirl Kelley]

Originally Posted by kato13

Again history coming really close to repeating itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...strikes-2024-7

Russia may resort to an old World War II tactic that had a key role in the D-Day landings to repel Ukrainian drone attacks -- (Barrage Balloons)

As maneuverable as drones are and with the skill of Ukraine operators I don't foresee this being very effective.

[kato13]

New tool I just found out about.

A near real time indicator of active fires. (Used to track wild fires).

Apparently internet sleuths are using it to track air base fires.


This is Morozovsk_air_base
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov...7,48.28,12.62z

Attached a screen shot for when the fire is out later.

[Raellus]

The Ukrainian invasion of Russia's Kursk region is pretty bonkers, IMHO. I don't think anyone anticipated an operation of this scope or scale at this point in the conflict. It's particularly surprising given that Russians had been making incremental territorial gains in several areas along the front, even prompting very real fears of an operational breakthrough west of Avdiivka.

What is the UAF's main objective? Relieve pressure on beleaguered stretches of the front? Occupy Russian territory with the aim of eventually exchanging it for sovereign Ukrainian territory during anticipated peace negotiations?

Will this incursion force the Russians to withdraw forces from Ukrainian territory to meet the threat? Is this a foolish use of UAF forces that could be better used elsewhere? Will the Russians cut off and destroy this force?

What are your thoughts, opinions, or predictions about this operation?

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[Heffe]

Agreed that the invasion of Kursk Oblast is a bold decision by Ukraine. Rumor has it that the UA has pushed numerous brigades into Russia proper, with numbers hovering somewhere around 2 divisions' worth. As for the goals here? There's a lot of possible benefits, with the obvious drawbacks being as you state - the eventual cutting off and piecemeal destruction of the UA units now in Russia.

Some of the benefits, IMO, include the following:

• Territory to be used in future negotations.
• Morale boost for the Ukrainian people.
• Proof to Ukraine's allies that she's still in this fight and able to maneuver. And evidence that their support is being put to effective use.
• Forcing everyday Russians to deal with the fact that Russia isn't safe in this war, either. Not only, but any RU soldiers killed in Kursk Oblast are likely conscripts, not volunteers. These are friends and family members of people living in St. Petersburg and Moscow, not a bunch of poor, asian-looking volunteer soldiers from the far east of the country.
• Reductions of pressure from Kharkiv and Donetsk. Russia will be forced to pull troops away from other areas of the front to deal with this incursion.
• And finally, the timing of the counter-invasion (is that a thing?) is of particular note to me. The Russian's offensive near Kharkiv has stalled, and as of a few days ago there was some leaked intel that the forces in Vovchansk may end up having to pull back to stronger positions. In Donetsk, the Russian summer offensive has been going strong for months now, and is probably somewhere between 4-8 weeks before it culminates. Ukraine's strategy for the last year has been entirely focused on defense, and punishing Russia with high attrition. I suspect someone in Ukrainian command asked the question - how can we keep Russia attacking in earnest after the culmination of Russia's summer offensive, so that they don't enjoy the fruits of an operational pause and possible negotiations for the loss of Ukrainian land? And the answer was clear - put Russia into a position where it HAS to keep attacking Ukraine due to internal political pressure.

That last one IMO is the key for the decision to invade Russia. All in all, you have a Russian army whose offensive is approaching culmination - they're surely reaching a point where units are exhausted, needing to pause to rearm and regroup, and suddenly Ukraine launches a major assault into Russia itself.

I don't think the attack will reach Kursk (unless Russia entirely fails to respond) or anything. I believe this is more about continuing the existing strategy of attriting Russian forces down.

[Targan]

Perhaps the Ukrainians are attempting to infuriate Putin to such an extent that he orders the use of WMDs? The Ukrainians may have decided that the way things are going, they can't "win" on the terms Zelenskyy has been demanding. So take a WMD hit or two and hope the West is so outraged that it actively intervenes?

[kato13]

I could see the chemical threshold having being tripped at the moment, due to the embarrassment, and the fact the Chinese would probably protest a lot less to chemical than nuclear.

The recent commitment of the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade (with the highest tooth to tail ratio in the Ukrainian army) seems to indicate, this is not a just a raid, and there is hopes for even more significant gains.

I know it is much more complicated, but man it is looking like they really only did need F-16s.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The Ukrainian invasion of Russia's Kursk region is pretty bonkers, IMHO. I don't think anyone anticipated an operation of this scope or scale at this point in the conflict. It's particularly surprising given that Russians had been making incremental territorial gains in several areas along the front, even prompting very real fears of an operational breakthrough west of Avdiivka.

What is the UAF's main objective? Relieve pressure on beleaguered stretches of the front? Occupy Russian territory with the aim of eventually exchanging it for sovereign Ukrainian territory during anticipated peace negotiations?

Will this incursion force the Russians to withdraw forces from Ukrainian territory to meet the threat? Is this a foolish use of UAF forces that could be better used elsewhere? Will the Russians cut off and destroy this force?

What are your thoughts, opinions, or predictions about this operation?

-

I believe this to be a feint given how hard pressed the UAF are elsewhere on the front lines. Another more remote possibility is this is a spoiling attack on Russian forces in that area (Russian force concentrations that we are not privy to in the West.)

Historically and in an odd coincidence a risky counter-thrust/offensive in the Kursk region is enough to give me pause on Ukraine's behalf (Citadel/Zitadelle 1943 anyone?)

[Vespers War]

I'd be surprised if there's just a single goal, since there are quite a few to choose from. Among the more likely ones:

1. Seize the initiative from Russia and force them to respond/adapt rather than following planned actions. Russia is improving on its early-war improvisational capabilities, but that improvement is from an abysmal starting point and they're still not good at it.

2. Strike at Russian logistics. Sudzha controls the main rail line supporting the Kharkiv front.

3. Strike into and occupy Russian territory for morale purposes (on both sides) and to strengthen Ukraine's position at any future negotiations.

4. Related to 3, strike into areas where conscripts are located. As long as the war is fought on Ukrainian territory where conscripts aren't deployed, casualties can be written off as "oh, they volunteered for it." Start inflicting casualties on conscripts and the level of unrest might increase as families lose children/spouses/parents that didn't volunteer for that risk.

I actually expect Ukraine to avoid the nuclear power plant as much as possible. Only half of it is operational, and there is probably more downside than upside to approaching it. Russia's shown an eagerness to use nuclear power plants to protect troops. If Ukraine were to damage it, it would be a propaganda coup for Russia. Even if Ukraine didn't damage it, I wouldn't put it past Russia to do so and claim Ukraine was responsible.

I also don't think it's just a feint since the 80th is involved. That's a top-tier unit in an army that doesn't have enough of those to easily spare one for a feint. Pulling Russian units away from the existing front is almost certainly a goal, but I doubt it's the only goal or even the primary one.

[Raellus]

I wonder how much of a strategic reserve, if any, Ukraine has. It seems that now would be a good time to launch a major counterattack at another point in the front line and either achieve another breakthrough- which would really ef the Russians ish up- or at least regain some territory lost over the spring-summer.

In terms of the possible Ukrainian strategic objective of gaining Russian territory to use as leverage in any upcoming peace talks, I just can't see Putin negotiating unless it's from a position of strength.

Last week, maybe, I read somewhere (wish I'd made note of the source) that something like 40,000 Ukrainian men have fled the country so far this year. If true, I'm not sure what to make of that. If this were a war of choice for Ukraine, I could understand- for example, if it was 40,000 Russian men that had left their country. But this war was forced upon Ukraine; for Ukrainians, it is very much an existential conflict, both on a national and a personal level. In the minds of these recent expats, is Ukraine- socially, culturally, politically, economically- simply not worth fighting/potentially dying for? I can only imagine what the Ukrainian troops on the front lines think of their countrymen who've fled the country.

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[Targan]

Originally Posted by Vespers War

I actually expect Ukraine to avoid the nuclear power plant as much as possible. Only half of it is operational, and there is probably more downside than upside to approaching it. Russia's shown an eagerness to use nuclear power plants to protect troops. If Ukraine were to damage it, it would be a propaganda coup for Russia. Even if Ukraine didn't damage it, I wouldn't put it past Russia to do so and claim Ukraine was responsible.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I wonder how much of a strategic reserve, if any, Ukraine has. It seems that now would be a good time to launch a major counterattack at another point in the front line and either achieve another breakthrough- which would really ef the Russians ish up- or at least regain some territory lost over the spring-summer.

Okay, you two have officially freaked me out. In the days since each of you posted, Russia deliberately set fire to one of the cooling towers at Zaporizhzhia, and the Ukrainians punched another hole in the border and advanced into Belgorod.